Stevie Williams

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Stevie Williams

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:33 am

I'm a closet fantasy golf player. Check that. I am a now out of the closet fantasy golf player.

I get a kick out of trying to match up courses with players and go over past performances.

The real reward is that on Sunday afternoons with my players out of contention, there is nothing better to take a nap to than the soothing voices of a golf tournament.



This week, I was interested, so no nap, since I picked the winner, Adam Scott.

But, I was amazed to find out after the tourney that Adam Scott did not win the tournament.

Nope, it was his caddy.

For you that don't follow golf, Stevie Williams is Tiger Woods former caddy and was fired by Woods last month.

Now, he is Adam Scott's caddy.

He has caddied for some of the greats. Greg Norman, Ray Floyd before Tiger and Scott.



Golf itself, is probably the most individual sport in the world. Sure, golfers have agents, coaches, trainers, and caddies, but when it comes down to it, it is the golfer and his club.

When Scott beat everybody by four strokes, I thought he had won the tournament.

But, after hearing his new caddy in an interrview afterwards, I realized it was him that had won the tournament. Not Scott. And all those tourneys that Tiger, Norman, and Floyd won?

Stevie won those too.

He's won over 100 tourneys. He told us so yesterday.



In the interview with David Feherty, Stevie Williams mentioned Adam Scott once. He mentioned himself a boatload of times.

He told us that this was his 145th win. He called himself a great front runner and took the same feelings to the golf course when he caddied.

He told us it was well documented how HE had won 145 tournaments....and never did he mention Norman or Floyd or Tiger or Scott in the same breath.



Some might say it's refreshing to see a man so full of himself in the golf world. Afterall, most golfers are courteous to a fault.

But, regretably, he came off as a wannabe.

He came off as a hooker in Augusta, sleeping with the winner of the Masters three years in a row, thinking she was an actual part of the victories.

He came off as Ringo Starr, wondering why John and Paul got the attention.



If there is ever a Hall of Fame for baggage handlers, Stevie Williams will be the first name that comes to mind.

In his mind, he has won 145 tournaments, but he'll have to buy his own trophy for each of them



In the end, Stevie Williams is Shakespeare's pen, he is Van Halen's guitar, he is Albert Pujols bat.

The difference being that the pen, the guitar, and the bat are smart enough to know that they are the tools for the performer.

Stevie, is just a tool.



[ August 09, 2011, 09:45 AM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]
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Stevie Williams

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Sep 29, 2011 8:03 am

Nobody visits here, at least that is the feeling I get, so I thought I may add some comments here, all while keeping it under the Stevie Williams subject line. I'll 'get busted' sooner or later but we'll see how long I can keep this little 'blog' going.



This is the first day of the longest season. The first day of no fantasy baseball. Sure, I'll draft and study and do the usual off season things, but you and I know that it's just not the same.



A draft has already begun and Kemp, Tulo, and Ellsbury were the first three picks. I wouldn't mind starting a team with any of them. I really haven't given much thought to who I want in the nine-spot. I'll probably let the draft dictate that and then take the best player I can.



I've thought about posting more on the Boards this off season, but to tell the truth I'm getting sick of seeing my own name on the Boards, I can just imagine what some of you are thinking!



So, maybe this will work a little better. As long as you readers don't post anything here and the subject isn't changed, nobody should be the wiser. Our secret. Of course, I don't expect it to last long, but we'll see how it goes.



If anybody is familiar with the 'Dark Side', (that's what I call the football side of the NFBC) and the football Message Boards, they'd notice a guy who calls himself 'Snake'.

He promotes and provokes fights on the Message Boards and posts too much, always having to get the last word.

Although it is not my style, I take notice of how sick people are of his frequent posts and I just don't want to be 'that guy'

Snake talks about himself in the third person and says stuff like 'ssssssss'.

I have a problem with any fella that doesn't talk on the Boards like he would in public.

For instance, what would be your reaction if somebody introduced himself to you by saying, "Good afternoon, SSSSSnake Gormley here! I jussssst thought I'd let you know that SSSSSnake is going to win thisssss league"

Creepy, eh.

But, that is the way he writes on the Boards.

I don't get it.

True to his name though. He is poisonous and the reason I quit posting on those Boards.

There are enough folks in our lives that need the last word and that will hurl insulting comments. Getting them from somebody we don't even know is needed like a guy needs a third nipple. Like we even needed the first two!



Unfortunately, it seems to make Snake feel better in adding misery to others lives. It's not an accident, it's an on purpose. Not like Mr Gower in 'It's a Wonderful Life' after receiving news that his son had died in the war, he dispenses poison in a prescription for a customer, then cuffs George Bailey about the head for not delivering it.

Mr Gower realizes his mistake when George yells, "Look, Mr. Gower, it's poison, I tell ya, it's poison!"

Mr. Gower can be excused. His dispensing of poison was accidental.

Snake's is on purpose.
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Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Sep 29, 2011 8:36 am

Albert Pujols has been the number one pick in our drafts for a long time. That'll end this year.

No matter who he signs with, Pujols has reached the peak of his fantasy powers. Granted, in the middle of a Red Sox or Yankee lineup, he would be right up there with the best. But, this is the year that athleticism will pass the almost for sure feel of Pujols getting 30/100/.300.



The lure of a guy like Kemp, or Ellsbury or Braun and the promise of maybe something more or better than 'just' 30/100/.300 will kick in this year.

These five categories guys will knock down guys like Cabrera and Votto as well. All were normally top five guys this year. Next year, maybe Pujols remains in the top five with few appearances by Cabrera or Votto.



Their positions don't help as well. 1b is a deep position. Even guys like Lucas Duda came along and were serviceable corner men.

Cornermen..."Cut me, Mick!"



When Teixeira signed with the Yankees, it was thought that he'd blossom into a perennial top 5 guy. Instead, he has fallen to the back of the first round and next year, will probably be drafted in the second round.



Is it the position?

Or is it the lure of getting five categories, instead of the four that 1b give us?

1b are hurt less than players at other positions. And, in the AL, they'll usually dh if gimpy.

There numbers are almost guaranteed. We know what to expect from most of them.

First basemen are like the winter coat we buy every fall, knowing it'll be warm.

We feel safe and warm with that coat. We know there are others that look better, but we know what we're getting when the snow flies with this coat.



In a draft just started yesterday, Kemp, Tulo, and Ellsbury have been selected. I'm going to guess and say that only four first baseman will be selected in the first round. Pujols, Cabrera, Votto, and Adrian Gonzalez.

Howard and Fielder are possibilities, but I'll stick with my prediction of just four.

I'll let you know how that goes.....
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Post by DOUGHBOYS » Fri Sep 30, 2011 3:15 am

The Strange Case of Albert Pujols-



While researching some Stuff for a future post, I was struck by a stat that floored me.

Albert Pujols only walked 61 times this year. 61.

This is a guy who has drawn triple digit walks the last three years and at least 90 bases on balls during the last six years.



There can be two reasons for this drop.

1. Albert isn't as feared as in the past.

Albert did not seem like 'The Machine' this year. He wasn't THE best hitter in the game. Rather, he joined a group that has always been nipping at his heels. It's the reason why he won't be the overall number one pick as he has been in the past.

2. Albert has become less selective. It happens to some hitters. Tiring of walks, they go a little outside of their zones.

It could also be that Albert could help his club more by going after pitches out of the strike zone. In August, he walked 16 times. During this time it looked as if St. Louis had no hope of making the playoffs. But, with the playoffs becoming more and more of a possibility in September, Pujols would only take eight walks during the month.



I don't know if hitting .299 will signal the end of Pujols great years. It is the first time that he has failed to hit .312, let alone .300.

Frankly, the lack of bases on balls tells me more than the average drop.

His contract, whoever signs him will be a bad one for that club. Somebody said it would be like the Soriano contract. I don't agree with that. When Soriano was signed, he was athletic player who could be a roto machine, but still had huge holes in his swing and has always had a problem going out of the zone for any pitch with a wrinkle.

No, I liken the upcoming contract to Todd Helton. Whoever signs him will get a good return on their investment during the early years, but soon become a very average hitter getting paid more than all the players who pass him in skill sets.

If I'm a GM, I would stop the bidding at five years. But, he'll get close to twice those years.

GM's for the most part are selfish. They want that great player now. There is no guarantee that that GM will even be around when the Pujols contract becomes an albatross.

It takes a well informed and smart owner to say no to a Pujols contract. Know any?
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Stevie Williams

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Fri Sep 30, 2011 11:24 am

Willie Mays looked at me!





When I was eight years old, my father took me to my first major league baseball game.

I'll never forget going through the archway of Candlestick Park and seeing that grand field laying below me.

The sweet odor of cigar smoke mixed with the essence of steamed hot dogs. Still, one of the sweetest smells my nose has ever been introduced to.

Although I don't smoke them, cigars at a baseball park were just meant to be.



Unlike today, with pregame rituals scheduled down to the last minute, players did pretty much what they wanted before the first pitch.

Most would play catch with each other to keep limbered up.

My dad, knowing my love for Willie Mays tried to get me an autograph. He led me down to the field level seats, and when he got within earshot of Willie Mays, he yelled, "Willie, hey Willie!"

Willie Mays turned around.

Willie Mays turned around and looked at my dad and I.

Willie Mays looked at me!

Heavenly.

An usher came and whisked us away, telling my dad that it was too close to game time for autographs.

I didn't care.

Willie Mays looked at us!

I can't remember hardly anything else that happened that day. It was like a rush of sights, smells, and just absolute bliss.



I was hooked.

Baseball took over. My second grade teacher sent home a report card that had the note, "Danny suffers from a bad case of baseballitis."

Never did get that cured.



My wife and family have learned to live with this malady. Well, they think of it as a malady. I think of it as, well, life.

When I think of how some players say they're not role models.

I think of that first visit to a Major League game.

For that eight year old kid, all it took was one look.
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Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sat Oct 01, 2011 3:58 am

The Mets (And apologies to Glenn, the only fan of the Mets I know )



Say Boston Red Sox, and we think of Ted Williams. Say Atlanta Braves, and we think of Chipper Jones. Say Milwaukee Braves, and we think of Hank Aaron. It can go on and on for most franchises.



When I do that with the New York Mets, I think of Reyes and Wright, only because they are the Mets current and best players.

The Mets have had some good players over the years. Seaver, Koosman, Ryan, Gooden, Strawberry, but they have never had the franchise defining player. What can be said of a franchise that still has Ed Kranepool records?



When the franchise started, they were a laughing stock. Setting records for losses.

Their management was as bad as their players. On the field they hired Casey Stengel, they didn't expect much from him but great lines for the newspapermen and a little more attendance.

The front office may have been worse. In 1966, the Mets were expected to choose Reggie Jackson in the amateur draft. They passed on Jackson and chose Steve Chilcott.

If you're asking Steve Who? It's because he never made it to the Major League level.



The Mets have had some success. They had their 'Miracle Mets' team in '69 and the '86 team that came within a strike of going home, but made Bill Buckner's name a household word. Both teams were deemed 'lucky' by most.



Previous to this year, the Mets had never had a batting champ. Jose Reyes left the game early the other day to try and cement the first. In a lot of ways, typical.

Met fans may think that harsh, it isn't really.

The Mets are like the basketball Clippers. They're the 'other' large market team who will just never measure up. And when they do try to measure up, it seems like it comes from the back door.



The Mets are one of those franchises that have done more wrong than right. It makes the '69 and '86 teams that much sweeter for their fans. Really, for all time, I can't think of a franchise who has done less for fans than the Mets. The latest being Omar Minaya and the signing of Jason Bay in a ballpark that David Wright had power problems with. Brilliant.

More than likely they lose Reyes this year and may trade Wright, which would leave the Mets at square one.



If we go back to the first paragraph and play the franchise game backwards, say 'Billy Buckner', most would think of the New York Mets.

And THAT, may define the Mets in a nutshell.
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Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sun Oct 02, 2011 3:08 am

The 'Ladies'



I have a friend that plays fantasy baseball. Even though he 'only' plays local and yahoo leagues, he micro-manages teams more than anybody I know.

He lowered Dustin Pedroia on his draft lists because he heard his wife was pregnant and didn't want the heartache of missing Pedroia's stats for a few days during the season.

He says he will never draft Carlos Zambrano because of the fear of suspensions and that he carouses and stays up all night with the ladies.

Actually, that worked well for him this year.



Zambrano and baseball players have been partying and breaking curfews with the ladies since time began. Until the 1970's, these escapades were never reported.

n fact, the newspapermen would join in on the fun in some cases.



Casey Stengel had an interesting theory about women and ball players. He preferred that his ball players find 'tramps' or 'hussies' while on the road.

Stengel felt that if his ball players found 'easier' women that they would get more shut eye than the players pursuing the 'good gals'.



Baseball Annies have been around since baseball started. Originally, it was thought that they were attracted to the physique of ball players, while others thought it was the uniform.

Now, with the rise of celeb and dollar signs, baseball players have the same status as a rock star, who have their groupies.



I wish I could remember the names, but I can't, so I'll tell this little story without them.

During the 60's, a rookie in the Bigs was smitten with this girl that he had met in Chicago on a roadtrip. He told the other players that this girl 'might be the one'.

He went on about how nice she was and how she wasn't like the other girls.

After the game, she came by the players entrance to pick him up. While talking with another player, he noticed that a lot of the players said hi to her and that she responded with 'Hi Bill' or Hi Sal.

He asked the player he was talking with if he knew the girl. "Sure, just about everybody knows Doris, she's a baseball annie"

"No, it can't be, that's my girl!"

The player responded, "Uh, she has a rug in her bedroom with the looks and shape of a baseball, right?

"Well, yeah"

"Sorry to be the one to tell you this, but we call that her on deck circle"
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Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Oct 03, 2011 2:44 am

Fantasy Football and Fantasy Baseball



This is the first year that I have no fantasy football teams. I don't miss it. Heck, the fantasy football season is already a third of the way over and it seems like football just started.



I'm won over by the day to day sweet misery that fantasy baseball brings. It is constantly on my mind. Fantasy football can be turned off and on like a light switch. The light goes out Monday night, then on for the weekend.



Luck, of course, plays a larger role in fantasy football. Every time a player of ours gets hit, we're caught whispering to ourselves, "Get up! Get the hell up!"

Fantasy baseball is a game of nutrition of the numbers. Fantasy football is a game of attrition, hoping for numbers.



Without the fantasy side, some football viewers feel that they can't get that same 'buzz', needing something other than just the game itself.

I've fixed that for myself this year by entering a higher stakes football pool wherein we have weekly prizes and money at the end of the year for overall prizes.

To me, better than the luck of fantasy football and it still gives me a good reason to watch each game with 'something on the line'.



I know most will defend fantasy football. I did for a long time.

The stimulation in fantasy football exceeds that of baseball.

It's sex on a first date.

Then, wait till the next weekend to see if getting lucky again is in the cards. I get it. The angst can't be topped.

In the meantime, fantasy baseball is marriage.

And all the day to day strategies that come along with the relationship and.... the sex is guaranteed.



[ October 03, 2011, 11:20 AM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]
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Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Oct 04, 2011 5:39 am

Anonymous-



I get a kick out of the Anonymous debate.

A lot of it stems from a prominent figure on the Boards, Gekko, not wanting others to 'copy' his picks.

Once, I had the same thoughts, until reality kicked my ass and the realization hit me that my picks were probably no better than Joe Blow's. Now, if somebody 'copies', I take it as a compliment, while questioning the copier's sanity.



Lindy has had more success in this contest than any of us over the last three years. Yet, if we had 'copied' him last year after the most successful year the NFBC has seen, we would have ended up with goose eggs.

Why? Because Lindy did not have a good year last year.

If we'd have copied Gekko earlier this year, we would have wound up with the same goose eggs.

Why?

Because Gekko did not have a good year.



In fantasy baseball, past performance means little more than you know what you are doing.

We are a year to year club. Only as good as our last picks.

If we pay $1400 and 'copy' somebody in the first place, then we've put $1400 in the wrong place.



As I've said SOOOOO many times, there are no sleepers. Everybody knows everybody. Now, it is the way we construe the information and not have that same information conscrew us.



Our contest changes from year to year. The information changes day to day, and near the end, hour to hour and minute to minute.

We are not copying the smartest kid in class.

There is no smartest kid in our class.





I doubt there are many who scout or copy at all. We have our own agendas to worry about.

And I really doubt any drafter, in the space of one minute asks themselves who to take then ask themselves what would 'He' do.

If so, chalk one up for Anonymous.



[ October 04, 2011, 11:55 AM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]
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Post by Gekko » Tue Oct 04, 2011 7:30 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

I doubt there are many who scout or copy at all. We have our own agendas to worry about.

And I really doubt any drafter, in the space of one minute asks themselves who to take then ask themselves what would 'He' do.

If so, chalk one up for Anonymous. Sorry Dough, Anonymous +1

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Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Oct 04, 2011 8:30 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

I doubt there are many who scout or copy at all. We have our own agendas to worry about.

And I really doubt any drafter, in the space of one minute asks themselves who to take then ask themselves what would 'He' do.

If so, chalk one up for Anonymous. Sorry Dough, Anonymous +1
[/QUOTE]Or, Anonymous -1, depends on how you look at it.



[ October 04, 2011, 02:12 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]
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Post by Gekko » Tue Oct 04, 2011 12:21 pm

Dough - Over the years I've heard enough owners say,

"Did you see Jupinka (or Childs) took that guy in the 2nd round, I wonder what he sees in him."

"If he's good enough to be Jupinka (or Childs) #1SP, he's good enough to be mine."

"If a top owner takes a player I don't have a lot of interest in, I try to investigate that player to see if I missed something"

"I know Srebro took CarGo in the 6th round of his last two drafts. Knowing Srebro is in this draft, if I want CarGo, I have to pull the trigger in the 5th."



Bottomline - If you don't think owners copy (steal) top owner's picks, you aren't being honest with yourself. Not everyone does it, but it's more prevalent than you think.

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Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed Oct 05, 2011 3:18 am

Good points, Mark.

There are still folks who walk into a Main event draft armed with just a magazine. Boggles my mind. These folks are hoping the $100,000 finds them instead of working hard to get that money.

So, I have to think that you're right in that some players will try and take the 'easy road.'



For the most part, I think most players have their own agendas, but I see where you are coming from.

Greg's solution is a really good fix for everybody concerned.
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Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Oct 06, 2011 4:55 am

Adam Jones



I did a little research on Adam Jones because of the ongoing NFBC PreMature Draft that is going on as we speak and just selected him in the sixth round.

The talent has always been there for Jones. Next year will be his magical, mythically (Probably making up that word) age 27 season.



Jones didn't play baseball till past Little League age. He preferred football and basketball. His family took him to a local Padres game and Jones was hooked.

Becoming the best player on his high school team playing shortstop and pitching, he was drafted by the Mariners in the first round.



When drafted, it was thought the Mariners would force Jones to become a pitcher. Jones preferred playing everyday though and Seattle relented.



In rookie ball he played shortstop. He had well over 200 at bats, hit close to .300, but didn't hit a home run.

Progressively, the power came as he climbed the minor league levels. He would hit double digits every year after the goose egg he put up for rookie ball. He had always been blessed with speed, but never stole more than 13 bases in the minor leagues.



On his way from AA to AAA, the Mariners wanted to move him from shortstop to the outfield. Partly because Jones was not improving his fielding as a shortstop from level to level, mostly because the Mariners had found their shortstop of the future and did not want to impede Jones bat from making the Big Squad.

That shortstop was Yuni Betancourt.



Jones made the switch from shortstop to center field well. It was now only a matter of time before he got the call. He came up in both 2006 and '07 getting less than 100 at bats each season.

In 2008, he was traded for Erik Bedard. Ironically, after 2008 the Mariners gave up on Yuni Betancourt and traded him to Kansas City.



Getting a full chance to play with Baltimore, his career has blossomed. Now, one of the best center fielders in the game, as well as steady with the bat.



He's a 'see it and hit it' batter. He'll never have an exceptional obp. 36 walks is the most he had during a Major League campaign.

As a free swinger, his strike out totals are low. Averaging just 110 strike outs over his four years.

The power is growing. During the course of those four years in the Bigs, home run production has increased from nine to nineteen, nineteen again, then 25 home runs last year.



Jones' splits are head scratching. He hits right handers far better than southpaws.

Jones hit 21 of his 25 homers off righties and .295 while hitting .242 against lefties.

During his career with the Orioles, he has never had a year hitting lefties better then righties. Over the last three years, .294 vs. righties, .249 vs. lefties

19 of his 25 home runs came at home. But, that has not been a trend in past seasons.



There is a lot to like about Adam Jones. Developing more power as the years fill out his body, he could become a 30-15 guy this year. Especially if he can figure out those guys that throw with the 'wrong hand.'
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Post by DOUGHBOYS » Fri Oct 07, 2011 4:19 am

Is Kimbrel Worth it?





Funny things happen in drafts. We go in to them with 'Plan A' and by the time things end, we've ended up with a team that came out of left field.

In the draft that I am in now, I thought to myself that the middle of the fifth round may be a good time to take Craig Kimbrel.

Now, before the 'experts' come out and say it, most of us already know that Kimbrel will be the best closer option for k's, has low peripherals, and has the closer gig locked up. Everything we want in taking the first closer off the Board.



I got snaked. The drafter before me took him. When I was younger this would drive me crazy. Some times, I'd even go 'on tilt' and make a poor decision on my next pick. Never a good thing.



As the draft has progressed, I'm wondering if that drafter may have done me a favor. Closers are lumped together more this year than I can remember. A Cordero is the same as a Valverde, is the same as a Hanrahan, is the same as a Bailey. Teams are a little different, rates are a little different, but all in all, they can be lumped together.

Maybe this year, our groupings of closers will be based on just having the closer job secure.

The Dodgers situation is open, so is the Marlins. The Royals and their wonder GM should have traded Soria while he was hot. Now that he is run of the mill, they'll probably trade him for a bag of magic beans, so that is another job considered open to me.



We are closing in on the eighth round now and only one other closer has been picked.

So, now we have to ask ourselves, 'Is Kimbrel really worth a three or four round penalty?'

In essence that is what it has become.

And that'll have to be a question that'll need answered before the 'Big Drafts' start.
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Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Oct 10, 2011 7:27 am

The Times, They Are A-Changin'



I want too much.

At the end of football games, I see opponents smiling and sharing jokes immediately after the games. Back in my day, these players just as sooned ripped the heads off the guys they just played than have casual conversation with them.

Money changes all.



Now, sports figures are all members of the same fraternity. Back in the day, it was God, family, and team. God and family still are in the running today, but team is not much in the picture.

Free agency has seen to that. Dollar signs come first. I'm ok with that, but I would like to see a real rivalry again. Although the press builds up Yankees-Red Sox, we all know that they're fraternity brothers and almost any of them would play for the other team if it meant more dollars.



I say all this being a little hypocritical. I want to see the fire back on the field. But, I won't have it on my fantasy team.

I haven't drafted Carlos Zambrano since he was the incognito pitcher of the Wood/Prior/Zambrano trio.

I won't draft Nyjer Morgan. Who knows when that firecracker goes off. But at the same time, I like watching Morgan play with that huge chip on his shoulder. It's rare.

Most play with a sense of entitlement.

Most have been brought up working on the techniques of hitting or pitching. Most are oblivious to rivalries.

When signed by the Giants back in the day, a player KNEW that he immediately had to hate the Dodgers.

Now, he knows that the Giants simply offered more for his services. And, that the Dodgers may later.



[ October 10, 2011, 03:50 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]
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Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Oct 11, 2011 9:46 am

We are still in the midst of our draft.

There are less readers here then on the top subject line, so if you were nosey enough to look in on this subject, than you should be rewarded with some little tidbits. Right?



I don't draft 'SLEEPERS' or 'My Guys' during this draft. I try to put together a team best suited to beat the other 14 with as little info as this time of year provides. Simple as that.

So, if you're looking to 'copy', well, go to town on it, but anyway, here is my team after 13 rounds. Please, no responses on how good or bad it is, or what round so and so went in, we'll get into that later...

C- Wieters

C- Suzuki

1B- Konerko

2B- Kipnis

3B- Prado

SS- Andrus

MI- Dan Murphy

CI- Belt

OF- Upton

OF- Cruz

OF- Ad Jones

OF- Heyward

OF- V Wells

U- Dav Murphy

P- Verlander

P- Zimmerman

P- Beachy

P- Darvish

P- M Harrison

P- Teheran

P- Hochevar

P- Putz

P- Lidge

BN- Trout

BN- Iannetta

BN- Teheran

BN- F Sanchez

BN- Pomeranz

BN- Cowgill

BN-



I drafted Kendrys Morales in an early draft last year and swore off guys that have 'fishy' injuries like Morales and Morneau and now, Ryan Howard.



In the 11th round of this draft, an interesting trio went back to back to back-

Morales, Heyward, and Morneau.

I've already spoken of the injuries. I thought it interesting that an underachieving youngster can be included with two players who have achieved greatness already, but have that injury bugaboo.

Heyward could be a flash in the pan who will never make it at the Big level. He certainly has not learned to play with pain well, and may not be a favorite even on the Braves bench. He was called out by team leader Chipper Jones and benched by their Manager.

Heyward is definitely a risk/reward guy which in the end, puts him on the same shelf as Morneau and Morales.



I really like a hitter to lead the Major Leagues in home runs next year. He'll go in the second round of most drafts next year.

I'm talking about Mike Stanton.

Really, my biggest concern about Stanton is the very thing I like most about him. His body.

The man is a bull. Unfortunately, he is one of those obvious weight lifters who has a body that is tighter than 16 clowns in a volkswagon beetle.

This breeds injury and Stanton has already had a lot muscle pulls in his minor and major league career.

If healthy for a whole season, I think it's possible that he could break Roger Maris home run record (My post, my record).

In this draft, Stanton was taken near the end of the second round. With less talk about injury and more about the physique and power from the 'experts', I'm guessing the hype machine will have him near the top of the second round by draft day.



[ October 24, 2011, 12:22 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]
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Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed Oct 12, 2011 7:05 am

Splits



Brandon Morrow is an American. He likes America so much that he has a hard time throwing in Canada.

Here are his splits:



In America: 3.07 E.R.A. with an opponents batting average of .193



In Canada: 6.31 E.R.A. with an opponents batting average of .275



I kid about the whole patriotic thing, but splits may be where stats lie (again)

Just last year, Morrow's splits were the opposite.

2.74 E.R.A. at home, 6.72 on the road.



We can never take splits at face value. With some players they are a trend over several years, which we can take comfort in. But, with Morrow and guy's like Morrow, we have to start from page one the next year.



I owned Gio Gonzalez on a lot of my fantasy teams last year. I loved having him. It wasn't because he had a breakout year or was a better draft pick than other pitchers on his shelf.



Nope, it was simply because, for the most part, Gio Gonzalez did what Gio Gonzalez was supposed to do.

When we make out our lineups on Monday, we look at the pitching matchups. Every time Gonzalez had a tough matchup on the road such as NYY or TEX or those type teams, he would get creamed. An easy bench. At the same time, he controlled the lesser teams.

We don't like surprises as fantasy managers. Well, unless we have Ben Zobrist and he gets 10 rbi in a game.



When looking at splits, go beyond the usual splits and look at game logs too. They can be almost, or just as telling, as splits.



And if even one of you says I'm trying to sound like an 'expert'.

I know a guy named 'Vinny' and it wouldn't take much for me to ask Vinny to pay you a visit
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Post by ToddZ » Wed Oct 12, 2011 5:06 pm

I've been looking at Morrow for the upcoming Shandler-fest and his 2011 is more of an example of how poor a metric ERA is when evaluating how a pitcher truly threw.



Sometimes, often, in fact, ERA is not a true reflection of a pitcher's skills.



His K/9



H 10.4

A 10



a wash



His BB/9



H 3.6

A 3.4



Also a wash -- same pitcher in terms of whiffs and walks, and these are the two skills most under the control of the pitcher himself.



HR/9



H 1.3

A .8



advantage road -- and this is part of the ERA differential. but, 2 fewer homers at home and 2 more on the road, and his HR/9 is the same. There is SOME luck involved with homers, so this discrepancy is really not that telling.



However...



BABIP



H .347

A .243



The ONLY way to explain a 100 point difference is simply dumb-ass bad luck. Note -- the seasonal BABIP is right where it should be.



My point is in terms of skills, Morrow was the same guy in both countries -- the results were just different.
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Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Oct 13, 2011 2:34 am

Excellent stuff, Todd.

A testament that some stats lie, but even worse, having some info is worse than having no info in some cases.



It seems every few years, Japan cultivates a player who gets rave reviews and rumors fly that that player will be coming to America. Yu Darvish is that player now.



Darvish is definetly not your straight up Hidecki Matsui type. More glitz and even more glamour.

Off the field, he married one of Japan's most popular actresses. They had a child together and she was pregnant with the second child when rumors started going around that Darvish was frequenting Susukino. Susukino is what we would call 'the red light district'.

When confronted by his wife about the rumors, Darvish reportedly said, "If you don't like it, lets break up."



Reports about MLB scouts going to Japan to scout Darvish started in 2008. He has dominated Japan hitters. His numbers are great, they are easily accessible through online sites.

Darvish throws six pitches, although he throws the change up very seldom.

His fastball hits 95. A slider, curve, shuuto, and fork ball are also in his arsenal.

A shuuto is a pitch more popular in Japan. In effect it is a screwball. For a right handed pitcher, like Darvish, the ball dives into a right handed batters hands, instead of away. It was made a little famous by Tom Selleck in 'Mr Baseball' as the pitch he couldn't hit.

I think his line was, "I can't hit shuuto!"



He won't be free to move to America till 2014. But, he could be posted and bid on by American teams this off season. Darvish is only 25. Younger than his predecessors who have been posted and most likely would command a long term contract. The usual suspects, the Yankees and Red Sox will be in on the bidding along with the Rangers and Blue Jays, should he be posted.



Now, the question is what to do from a fantasy perspective.

I go back to the movie star wife and his roaming. Armed only with this information about his personal life, it tells me that personal relations probably will not hold him back from coming to America. Selfishness is also on the table, so the lure of more fame is probably a draw.

Hey, I told you he was no Hidecki Matsui.



Lets say he comes here. Where do we draft him? I just took him in the 15th round of the PreMature draft.

He can be an ace and aces are not available in the 15th round. Of course, the gamble that he doesn't come here factors into the lateness of this pick.

What about March and we KNOW he is coming to the MLB?

Untested in America will be the thought of most drafters. While some will over bid as when Matsuzaka came here. Late single numbered rounds would be my best guess.

Anywhere from the fifth round for the overbidders to the ninth, where caution is used.



For the team that signs Darvish and the fantasy managers that own him, the hope is that Darvish concentrates more on shuuto than Susukino.



[ October 18, 2011, 08:16 AM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]
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Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Oct 13, 2011 2:54 am

Just an fyi, I'll be updating my PreMature Draft as we go in an above post....
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Post by DOUGHBOYS » Fri Oct 14, 2011 8:54 am

Vernon Wells



Tis the season, isn't it? The season for study that is. My study involves seeing the numbers for each player, what I saw visually with each player, and researching how that player arrives at those final totals.



It's tough to do this with all players. Every player is different. Some take a minute or two (Albert Pujols) some could take the off season without arriving at an answer we're comfortable with (Lance Berkman)



Splits defines a player in different elements. How he performed away and home and against players who are right and left handed.

As said before, sometimes splits can be telling, sometimes they lie. It's up to each individual to decide. It is a major factor in how a guy can be over drafted in the fifth round or be a perceived 'value' (yuck) pick in the ninth.



I was looking at Vernon Wells for the current draft. We are in the 18th round and usually a guy like Wells is taken by now. So, let's try and decipher if everybody is smart in this draft or I am going to get the dreaded 'value' (yuck) pick.



Wells is tough to evalue because he gets in the way of himself. He had success early in his career, signed a contract he had no business receiving and has tried and failed to play up to that contract since.

He is not injury prone. One point for Wells. Over his career, consistency is not his game. Take away that point.

Do we get the Vernon Wells that has hit over 30 home runs in a season twice or do we get the Wells that has hit 15 and 16 home runs in a season?

Instead of looking over his career, let's look at the last three years first. In those last three years, he has averaged over 70 runs, 70 rbi, 23 home runs, 10 stolen bases, and a .252 batting average. For my drafting purposes, I am looking at Wells either being a fifth outfielder or my utility player. I would love to have those numbers for those positions.



Lets just take last year. It carries more weight not only because it is more recent, but it is Wells only year with the Angels.

The stat that leaps off the page is a .187 batting average vs. right handers. After looking at the previous year, I'm 'throwing away' this stat. It's a liar. The year before, he only hit .195 vs lefties, while hitting .291 vs. righties.

Righties just got the better of him last year. It happens to some players. No reason to consider it a trend.

Here is something that scares me though. Wells hit just .201 at home with only eight home runs.

He hit .234 on the road with 17 homers.

Incredibly, Wells hit eight homers at A.L. East venues. The same as he had at the home ball park for 81 games.

Sounds like he's homesick!



Here is something more alarming. These are the batting averages that Wells has had as a Blue Jay at Angels Stadium over the last five years before joining the Angels.

.182

.222

.154

.188

.200

This is the reason why a fantasy guy needs to be in a GM's ear. Maybe he doesn't make the fatal mistake of taking on such a huge contract had he known how poorly Wells performed at Angels Stadium. Then again, the guy should go to every home game and should have had a clue. But apparently not, and he is fired.



I did not go deeper into the splits, I will, but I don't have time to do that and write about them as well. Just being honest.

For my purposes, Wells is on my short list (I'll bet somebody ahead of me in the draft is reading this, DOH! :mad: :D , but it was too much work writing all this to have it go to waste, so have at it :D ) He more than qualifies as a fifth outfielder. And, I'll leave a little note for myself to fantasy platoon him in home series vs. tough pitchers.

I'll try and add more on Wells later.



[ October 14, 2011, 04:05 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]
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Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sat Oct 15, 2011 12:23 pm

I know if you're reading this that you expect some fantasy baseball talk. I'm going to change course here for a minute.

I'm not much for political stuff. In fact, my friends accuse me of reveling in fantasy baseball to escape the real world.

Today, I walked downtown and was met by protesters carrying signs. One said "End Greed!"

Another said, "Banks got theirs, where's ours?"



Content to walk by and say nothing, I started weaving through them. But, then heard a voice asking if I was "happy with America".

Wrong question, wrong guy.

Yeah, I'm happy.

This is one of the few countries where you can assemble groups of people in defiance of their own country.

This is a country where we're free to do as we please as long as we break no laws. Those countries are dwindling.

This is a country that had a President that said, "Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country."

This is a country where I can be more upset about Buster Posey being hurt and messing up my fantasy baseball team more than any decision our President makes.



That sign says 'End Greed'. That's like saying "End Mad' or 'End boredom'. No matter what you protesters accomplish, human nature will remain intact.

People came through Ellis Island with little money and made a life for themselves and the sons and daughters who followed. They never asked for a handout from this country. They only hoped for a chance. A chance this country provides.

Am I happy with America?

You're damned right I'm happy with America! Politicians are siphoning the enjoyment of living in this country. Granted. But, we are a country that runs in cycles. This is a down cycle. We'll pull out of it. And some folks carrying signs asking for handouts are not solving a problem. Only contributing to the problem.

Thanks for asking me that question though.

I don't think about how lucky I am to be living in this country enough. You gave me the opportunity.

Thank you.



I promise that the rest of the posts will concern fantasy baseball
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Post by DOUGHBOYS » Sun Oct 16, 2011 4:41 am

Promise



A lot of folks arrive at the last third of their draft with different thoughts on their minds.

Some are relieved that the end of the draft is in sight.

Some are 'clean up men'. They look to fill in the positions that are missing on their board as soon as possible.

Some look for the 'breakout' types. The rookies and 'has beens' who have had great years long ago.

Some continue as they have with the previous portion of their draft.



For me, it is a combination of the latter two.

Not necessarily looking for a breakout year as much as I see something in a stat or visual that appears pleasing to me.

This is where we try to catch a little lightning in a bottle. Nothing to lose, really.



I am amused when folks get on the Boards and reason and evaluate each of the 30 players they have taken. They take the time to explain why each player is important to their team.

The odds are that less than half these players will still be on that team at the end of the year. Odds are heavy that one or two or even more players will be dropped at the very first possible moment.

Even with auctions, we are not buying these players, merely renting them.



So, what do I look for during the last 10 rounds?

I look for players who seemed to have a lot of bad luck previously.

I look for players with a redeeming statistic that leaps off the page, even though he may have been fantasy irrelevant the year before.

Heck, it could even be a visual. We may have seen a 10 pitch at bat that impressed us.



Promise. In a word that is what we are looking for. The first part of the draft are the building blocks. If we've done this correctly and we draft even two or three players in the last 10 rounds that build on their promise then we should do well.



Last year, Lindy Hinkelman took Yadier Molina, Anibal Sanchez, and Kyle Farnsworth in the last third of his draft. All instrumental in him winning the overall. At the same time, he guessed wrong on Esmil Rogers and Mike Minor. Still, great picks, if given a chance earlier in the year, they could have been keepers on the roster as well. As said before, not a big loss, just drops for somebody more suitable.



In our current draft, a team just selected Aroldis Chapman in the 20th round. Perfect.

If he can harness his control problems, he can be a great addition at a nominal cost.

He has loads of promise.

And promise overrides a wing and a prayer in fantasy baseball.



[ October 16, 2011, 10:53 AM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]
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Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Oct 18, 2011 1:09 am

Quotage:



Casey Stengel to Marv Throneberry on his birthday-

"We were gonna get you a cake, but we figured you'd drop it."



'The saddest day of the year, is when baseball season ends'



'Baseball players are smarter than football players. When was the last time you saw a baseball team penalized for too many players on the field?'



'I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to go back behind the plate, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit'



'You can't win a baseball game with no trick play or hail marys'



'You spend a good deal of your young life gripping a baseball, then it turns out it was the other way around all the time'



'And we get to stay at the best of hotels. The towels are so thick, I could barely shut my suitcase'



'There are three things in life I really love.

God, family and baseball.

When baseball season starts, that order gets jumbled around a bit.'



'Baseball is a game where a screwball can be a pitch or a player'



'Some people are born on third base and go through life thinking they've hit a triple'



'Trying to sneak a fastball by Hank Aaron is like trying to sneak sunrise by a rooster.'



'Baseball isn't fair. You take a round ball, hit it with a round bat, and it has to be hit square.'



What does a Momma Bear on the pill have in common with the World Series?

No Cubs.'



A knuckle ball is a curve ball that doesn't give a damn'



'Baseball fans are junkies.

And their heroin is the statistic.'



'Sandy Koufax threw so hard that some batters started their swing as he was walking out to the mound.'



'A baseball fan has the digestive apparatus of a billy goat.

He can, and does devour any baseball statistics with an insatiable appetite, then cries hungrily for more.
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