Draft - Standings Correlation

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 8:21 am

Read into what you will with these numbers. I ran the correlation between the cumulative quality of team drafts, rounds 1-23, (using the average player projections of 5 publications) vs where they finished in the standings. I did this for both the Overall and each League. Although each league varies dramatically, their averages are almost idnetical to the Overall correlations.

Overall correlations were the following:

BATTING .32

PITCHING .23

TOTAL .13

Perhaps a 'Mathematics Guru' on our board can put this into words while also considering its limitations.

Note: impact of injuries is not taken into consideration, one way or the other (ie loss and replacement), as this would take days if not weeks to work into the analysis.

One comment I will make, is that these numbers should be higher next year. Injuries were more prominent than usual and publications really had no idea who and how the steroids rules would impact each players' stats. I guess we can now make some assumptions, both general and specific.