What Have I Learned From 10 Expert League Drafts?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 4:34 am

I'm not sure there's anyone else in the country who has competed in more drafts/auctions at this point in the season than myself. I think I'm in 10 leagues right now and I have two LABR League auctions to participate in on March 4-5. This is crazy, even for me.

I've been in everything from the XFL Keeper League (which I must admit I have the absolute WORST team in that league) to a 12-team mixed league to a 15-team mixed auction league to a 12-team AL league draft. My first draft started the first week of November and I just had another 15-team mixed league draft yesterday (XM Satellite Radio).

So I think I'm pretty well versed on the trends that you can expect on Draft Day and drafting on the back-end of the draft (I seem to have drawn a lot of 10s and 12s). I know this sounds like you've heard this before, but honestly there isn't a bad spot in the draft. I'd take one or two, but I have no problem with the middle or the end. In fact, I think I've taken a shortstop in the second round of the majority of my drafts as I've tried to grab speed early on.

Okay, here's my thoughts on what you can expect on Draft Day:

1) Speed is going fast and furious. Having watched and participated in enough NFBC-style drafts, I can tell you that speed goes quickly in the second round. You're seeing Jimmy Rollins, Chone Figgins, Jose Reyes, Juan Pierre, Scott Podsednik and others going 15th through 30th. The guys in the XM Satellite League I was in yesterday didn't grab speed early and that forced guys like Willy Taveras to go WAAY high later on. Don't let the speed run pass you in 2006.

2) Starting Pitchers are Unloved this year. I think I got Chris Carpenter in the sixth round yesterday. Yes, a 15-team league. That's crazy. I think enough owners have been burned early by starting pitchers and you're seeing a lot of people stay away from them early in the draft. Johan Santana will definitely go in the top eight picks, but after that it may be awhile before you hear another owner call out a starting pitcher's name. There are four or five elite starters and then it tails off.

3) Barry Bonds. He might be the big wild card. I don't even like to admit this, but he went in the second round yesterday (not by me!!), but mainly he's been going around 60th in recent drafts after going in the 70s last month. People will watch him closely this spring, but now that he's not playing in the WBC you might not know for sure if he's healthy or not by Draft Day. Good luck if you take that gamble (I don't have him in a single league).

4) Closers. I think people learned a lesson last year when 50% of all major league teams switched closers at some point. Mariano Rivera still seems to go in the Top 50-60 and Brad Lidge isn't far behind, but the closer run seems to hold off until the fifth round or so. Now every draft is different, but that's what I've seen so far.

5) Rookies. I got Prince Fielder in the 21st round in November and he went in the seventh round yesterday. Yeah, I'd say his stock is on the rise. Jeremy Hermida also seems to be going ahead of Delmon Young recently, which is interesting. Josh Willingham is getting a lot of love. It's an interesting class and more rookies will likely make an impact in the NFBC after Draft Day than on Draft Day. I see more rookie FAAB pickups than draft picks.

Those are just a few quick thoughts from a guy who is in WAAAAYYYY too many leagues. Have fun everyone.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 4:40 am

Some good tidbits in here Greg. Thanks for the update.

Heffer · Post by **Heffer** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 5:08 am

greg, Thanks for the insight but that's way too many players to watch for me . My personal limit is three leagues.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 6:52 am

"5) Rookies. I got Prince Fielder in the 21st round in November and he went in the seventh round yesterday. Yeah, I'd say his stock is on the rise. Jeremy Hermida also seems to be going ahead of Delmon Young recently, which is interesting. Josh Willingham is getting a lot of love. It's an interesting class and more rookies will likely make an impact in the NFBC after Draft Day than on Draft Day. I see more rookie FAAB pickups than draft picks."

Greg, I think there is a huge difference between Fielder and Hermida who are virtually guaranteed spots in the everyday for their respective clubs and Delmon Young who likely starts the year at AAA and who knows when he will get called up?

Willingham is different as in some leagues he qualifies at catcher - sort of like Craig Wilson a few years ago, or some will draft in hopes he does get enough games to switch him and then get rid of their 30th round pick at C.

Other than that I think your observations are right on.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 10:32 am

GREG your right on , speed is going crazy early.

In some early drafts figgins and pierre were going in the 3rd rd , now their early 2nd rd picks.I cant believe podsednik is going in the 2nd rd.I like being at the end of the draft, for this year, so i can get some of that speed. Theirs not many 40 to 50 steal guys , and i would like to get one.

Is WILLINGHAM a catcher in the NFBC.

viper · Post by **viper** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 10:49 am

willingham is a catcher in NFBC

Geoffrey Stein · Post by **Geoffrey Stein** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 12:49 pm

I'll piggy-back on Greg's topic a bit here.

I've participated in or have watched close to 75 drafts this year, ranging from expert leagues to just having fun with the MDC users. Over the course of these drafts, I've picked up on some clear trends.

What Greg said about speed is right on. It's in high demand, and people are willing to overdraft to get it. A lot of the middle round guys, such as Taveras and Freel can be overdrafted to make up for missing out on one of the top dogs. One hint that I will give, keep an eye on players such as Craig Counsell and Kenny Lofton. Both guys stole 20+ bases last season, and face the Padres, who have Piazza behind the plate at least 19 times this season. While drafting one of those players won't make up for the lack of a stud speedster, paired with a Bay or Ichiro, they could keep you competitive in the steals category.

Another statistical category that is in demand is saves. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that there is an average of two closers available per NFBC team, and most drafters gobble up their two (or three, jerks) early to make sure they're not left out in the cold. I wouldn't recommend putting off the save category too long or you may be looking at a twosome of Todd Jones and Chad Orvella.

Don't be afraid to overdraft, if it's a player that you really want and feel will be successful. Especially come the middle rounds. If you really want/are targetting Jose Macias, but feel you can get him a round later, my best advice is to draft him now. Chances are, you're not the only person who likes Macias, and trying to squeeze an extra round of value out of him really isn't worth the chance you're taking of losing him. The middle and late rounds are usually a crapshoot, where anything can happen. Trying to project where a sleeper/player you like is going to end up almost useless. I've seen it happen and have done it personally, sitting on players and trying to stretch their value usually doesn't work.

This just may be a preference, but don't overvalue the young guys and forget about the steady veterans. I like to compare drafting youngsters and veterans to going to the beach with your wife/girlfriend. You tend to overlook that lady who cooks, cleans, and plucks you back hairs when all the fresh, young meat is walking by in a bikini. But in all reality, the wife/girlfriend still looks pretty good in a bikini, too. For example, I think most Jeremy Hermida drafters would be estatic for a .274-31-86 season with 11 stolen bases. Those numbers were Jermaine Dye's 2005 numbers. Dye averages out to be selected a few rounds after Hermida. Dye has done it before at the big league level, and looks quite nice in his bikini.

Those are the main things that I notice. For those wanting more draft/mock draft info, I write a report every Wednesday for the site that chronicles the latest in player movement from those drafts.

[ February 17, 2006, 07:57 PM: Message edited by: Geoffrey Stein ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 1:09 pm

Originally posted by Geoffrey Stein:

Don't be afraid to overdraft i second this

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 1:17 pm

LOL! Yeah GG good advice.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 1:43 pm

Though I'm infamous for my lol comment last year...lol.

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 2:51 pm

Blow job a Oak Don't piggy back me.

Cellar Dwellers · Post by **Cellar Dwellers** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 9:21 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

Though I'm infamous for my lol comment last year...lol. If Dyv were here, he'd write, lol. LOL

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Fri Feb 17, 2006 9:31 pm

Yea, someone remembers!

Come back Dyv!

[ February 18, 2006, 03:32 AM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 2:18 am

Originally posted by Geoffrey Stein:

You tend to overlook that lady who cooks, cleans, and plucks you back hairs when all the fresh, young meat is walking by in a bikini......Dye has done it before at the big league level, and looks quite nice in his bikini.

Some good points in your post...thanks...but plucking back hairs and Dye in a bikini? DUDE...that is just wrong....

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Sat Feb 18, 2006 2:23 am

Hmmm....the fantasy world is valuing speed ("over-valuing"?). When the world zigs, perhaps it is an opportunity to zag?

Speed has always been a premium...what, I wonder, is making speed so hot this year? To me, there doesn't seem to be any more or less speed potential out there than there has been over the last couple of years. Granted, MLB doesn't run much any more, but in the post-steroid world of no one hitting 60+ on a regular basis, maybe speed will make a comeback as teams do not sit back and wait for Earl Weaver's three-run home run!

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Feb 19, 2006 1:10 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Speed has always been a premium...what, I wonder, is making speed so hot this year? To me, there doesn't seem to be any more or less speed potential out there than there has been over the last couple of years. wow! a well-thought out post that i actually agree with. not too many of those on these MB's. good job king!

[ February 19, 2006, 07:10 AM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Sun Feb 19, 2006 2:24 am

Thank you, Mr. Gekko. High praise indeed...

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Feb 19, 2006 5:26 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Speed has always been a premium...what, I wonder, is making speed so hot this year? To me, there doesn't seem to be any more or less speed potential out there than there has been over the last couple of years. wow! a well-thought out post that i actually agree with. not too many of those on these MB's. good job king! [/QUOTE]Well, it's more of a question than anything so I don't know that there's that much to agree with. I, btw, know the answer, not that I'll tell you.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Feb 19, 2006 5:30 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

Well, it's more of a question than anything so I don't know that there's that much to agree with. I, btw, know the answer, not that I'll tell you.

you know the answer? do tell. you need to make up for your performance for last year.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Feb 19, 2006 5:55 am

I'll pm you.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Sun Feb 19, 2006 5:59 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

I'll pm you. me too!

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Feb 21, 2006 12:44 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Speed has always been a premium...what, I wonder, is making speed so hot this year? To me, there doesn't seem to be any more or less speed potential out there than there has been over the last couple of years. wow! a well-thought out post that i actually agree with. not too many of those on these MB's. good job king! [/QUOTE]Well, it's more of a question than anything so I don't know that there's that much to agree with. I, btw, know the answer, not that I'll tell you.

[/QUOTE]Well, yes, a "question" for sure, but a bit more of a "rhetorical" question.... :rolleyes:

But if you have a particular insight on speed, perhaps you should start a string? The shared wisdom on these posts have always been enjoyable if not illuminating!