NFBC Live Chat With Todd Zola: Thursday At 7 p.m. EST

[Edwards Kings]

Fielder and Albert leave the NL Central. Do you feel that the rest of the pitchers in the division deserve an increase in relative value?

[ToddZ]

Fielder and Albert leave the NL Central. Do you feel that the rest of the pitchers in the division deserve an increase in relative value?

No.

There will be players replacing them,

So what's the difference, maybe 50 runs total if that?

or 1/3rd of a run a game?

So you face the teams 9 times, that's 3 runs if you pitch the whole game, likely less, and this is if you start 9 games total - most pitchers will face the 2 teams much less than than.

I'm not going to adjust anything based on the possibility that over a season, a pitcher gives up 2 more runs.

[Roy's Outlaws]

Hi Todd, what do you see for the outfield in Seattle, except Ichiro.Can Carp do enough to keep the job? thanks 18 15 25

[Gekko]

Thanks for the chat Todd.

Buy or Sell give ADP:
1 Moustakas
2 Huff
3 Aviles
4 Adam LaRoche

[Gekko]

More HR this year:
D.Freese or C.McGehee?

[Cornhusker]

What was your role in the ESPN rankings summit? What ESPN rankings did you find yourself shaking your head over?

[ToddZ]

Hi Todd, what do you see for the outfield in Seattle, except Ichiro.Can Carp do enough to keep the job? thanks 18 15 25

Franklin Gutierrez will play CF, with a battle in left (assuming Smoak is at 1B and Montero is DH, at least most of the time).

I think Carp gets first shot and the majority of the time because I think the power is real and plays in Safeco, which is rare. Trayvon Robinson is the long shot, I think he needs more time refining his tools. Casper Wells, being a RHB can be a platoon partner with Carp who is a lefty, which I suppose is a realistic possibility, but as an OF5/UT drafted in the 22nd or 23rd, Carp should be fine.

[ToddZ]

Thanks for the chat Todd.

Buy or Sell give ADP:
1 Moustakas
2 Huff
3 Aviles
4 Adam LaRoche

Honestly not exactly what you are asking, but assuming it is do I want these guys, and if yes, do I expect being able to get them based on the ADP and will I jump the ADP to get them?

Moustakas present ADP is 164, end of the 11th. I like him long term, but would be shocked if I own him in an NFBC type league. There is still a chance he struggles and is sent back down, and I don't want to be handcuffing my 10th round pick. There is some upside, but I don't think the risk is worth the reward.

The rest all have ADP in the reserve round and that's where I would draft them. I'm still not convinced Boston is comfortable with Aviles at SS and there are a lot of moving parts in SF so Huff is not assured of regular at bats. I don't mind either of these guys as reserves, but they won't make my active 23.

LaRoche is someone I am likely to get since the cost is so low and the reward pretty good. I'd look to use him in the UT role, not even CI, but I can see drafting him in the reserve, hoping he is OK and productive, then using him at UT and possibly CI if I have an injury. I think LaRoche's early draft ADP is artificially low because it was assumed for so long that Prince would be the 1B in Wash.

[ToddZ]

More HR this year:
D.Freese or C.McGehee?

The real question here is do I think Pedro Alvarez will finally make enough contact to stick?

I'll take Freese. There is some playing time upside if he stays on the field longer than past years and I don't think McGehee ends up with near full time AB, but this is fun to think about, because there are so many variables on both sides other than just "who has more power".

[ToddZ]

What was your role in the ESPN rankings summit? What ESPN rankings did you find yourself shaking your head over?

I was a consultant for their projection and ranking process. I did their projections with Tristan Cockroft and then Tristan and I came up with our rough top-250 list.

We then had a 2-day summit in Bristol with a whole bunch of the ESPN crew and went through each position and ranked enough players to cover rosters in their home game, 10 team mixed with 1 catcher. For guys with multi eligibility, we were instructed to ignore the other eligibility and assume he was only eligible at that position (more on why in a minute).

We went through position by position, with our projections on a big screen, and we could ask for other players to be looked at in comparison. We used a sort of Socratic Method means of discussion. We were asked to state our case, we voted, majority rules and a ranking was borne.

We then did a top-350 with the caveat that we had to use where we ranked players with multi eligibility as a guideline. There are enough of them so that they set some natural boundaries and help keep things in perspective.

Tristan and I then picked up where the group left off and finished them off.

I also assisted Tristan with writing the profiles and will continue to consult throughout the spring as players need to be adjusted.

Off the top of my head, I recall thinking Hanley was too high, Verlander as well with Kinsler too low, at least for my tastes.

The toughest part was remembering it was 10 team mixed with 1 catcher -- I kept voting for Napoli too early

[Gekko]

would u be shocked if alvarez hit 25+ homeruns this year?

[Greg Ambrosius]

Very interesting about the ESPN rankings Todd. Did the group ever reference any other rankings, like NFBC ADPs or MockDraftCentral ADPs? They didn't have their own leagues started yet, right?

Just curious if the ESPN crew used any other current draft results while forming their initial rankings?

[Greg Ambrosius]

You and I both have this thing about Reyes and Rollins. You've tried to trade for both of them when I had them on my XFL roster and now after years of declining numbers I let both go, yet we still bid hard for Rollins in November, with me "winning" the bid. Give me your thoughts on both guys and even some games/At-Bat projections for both.

[ToddZ]

would u be shocked if alvarez hit 25+ homeruns this year?

Shocked? No, not at all.

I'm not anticipating it, but if he can get the CT% into the 75-78% range, that means he plays the whole year and 25 is a baseline.

[ToddZ]

Very interesting about the ESPN rankings Todd. Did the group ever reference any other rankings, like NFBC ADPs or MockDraftCentral ADPs? They didn't have their own leagues started yet, right?

Just curious if the ESPN crew used any other current draft results while forming their initial rankings?

Well, there was this schlub in the corner that kept bringing up the NFBC ADP whenever he wanted to push for a higher ranking on a player. And, the group was very receptive to the information, and Tristan asked for a copy to help him adjust the part of the rankings we did together at the end.

[telestar]

Would you agree that Hamels, with an ADP of 47 would be a better pick than Lincecum, with an ADP of 31? I realize Hamels is more of an injury risk, but that is a big difference in ADP. If you assume both pitch a little over 200 innings, the W and ERA should be about equal, and Lincecum's advantage in K should be somewhat offset by a better WHIP from Hamels. At least that is what I was thinking...

[ToddZ]

You and I both have this thing about Reyes and Rollins. You've tried to trade for both of them when I had them on my XFL roster and now after years of declining numbers I let both go, yet we still bid hard for Rollins in November, with me "winning" the bid. Give me your thoughts on both guys and even some games/At-Bat projections for both.

I've always been a Rollins guy, not so much Reyes, but the weakness of my XFL teams the past two seasons have been steals, costing me at least 1 title which is where my Reyes interest always came from. In November, I had two pans in mind, I had very little money to spend, I was going to get a top line player and going into dollar days early or spread it around a little. I ended up spreading it around and can't WAIT for the season to start!!

I may be more optimistic with Rollins playing time than anything, but I see 15-30 as possible, with an average around .270.

I think Reyes will hit .300, but won't run as much as in the past (30-35?) and the power will suffer, maybe 10 HR?

I doubt I will own Reyes in an NFBC type league, but it would not shock me if I get Rollins.

[ToddZ]

Would you agree that Hamels, with an ADP of 47 would be a better pick than Lincecum, with an ADP of 31? I realize Hamels is more of an injury risk, but that is a big difference in ADP. If you assume both pitch a little over 200 innings, the W and ERA should be about equal, and Lincecum's advantage in K should be somewhat offset by a better WHIP from Hamels. At least that is what I was thinking...

Umm, you sure you are not a subscriber to my site? That's almost an exact snapshot of my projections for each. In terms of $VAL, I have Hamels at $21 and Lincecum at $19.

[telestar]

Umm, you sure you are not a subscriber to my site? That's almost an exact snapshot of my projections for each. In terms of $VAL, I have Hamels at $21 and Lincecum at $19.

Thanks (I think) because I am not a subscriber (at least not now!).
If I carry this line of questioning further - how would you untangle the following SP? I see them also as very close but Haren is taken much earlier than the other three (and Garza perhaps much later than even Gallardo/Pineda).
Garza 190K, 3.40 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
Gallardo 200K, 3.40 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
Haren 180K, 3.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
Pineda 180K, 3.65 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

[Geoffrey Stein]

Todd-

With the Marlins ballpark looking more and more like it's going to play big, what are your thoughts on a pair of offseason imports from Chicago, Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano?

While Buehrle obviously won't be a big-time strikeout pitcher, do you think he'll do well enough in the three other categories to be worthy of a 20-something-round selection? Does facing the pitcher in the 9-hole for the first time in his career get him more strikeouts?

Offseason reports that Zambrano is throwing 94-mph aren't surprising -- the stuff has always been there. Does a fresh start with fellow Venezuelan, Ozzie Guillen, at manager make Big Z relevant again? Best case scenario: all goes perfect, where does he rank among starting pitchers?

(Full disclosure: I like both, and picked each in my slow draft)

[ToddZ]

Thanks (I think) because I am not a subscriber (at least not now!).
If I carry this line of questioning further - how would you untangle the following SP? I see them also as very close but Haren is taken much earlier than the other three (and Garza perhaps much later than even Gallardo/Pineda).
Garza 190K, 3.40 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
Gallardo 200K, 3.40 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
Haren 180K, 3.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
Pineda 180K, 3.65 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

OK, you're definitely not a subscriber (at least not yet ) otherwise you would be higher on Haren, I have him in the Hamels/Lincecum range.

I think you are shorting Gallardo some K's which makes him the best of the other three.
Then I am not quite as high on Garza, still a FB guy in Wrigley, so he is 3rd
That said, Pineda is a wild card, who knows how NYC and Yankee Stadium will impact him?

Haren has only had an ERA over 3.7 once in the past 5 years. The next HIGHEST was 3.33. His xFIP has been 3.02-3.49 the past 4 years. To me. 3.7 is way too high.

[ToddZ]

Todd-

With the Marlins ballpark looking more and more like it's going to play big, what are your thoughts on a pair of offseason imports from Chicago, Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano?

While Buehrle obviously won't be a big-time strikeout pitcher, do you think he'll do well enough in the three other categories to be worthy of a 20-something-round selection? Does facing the pitcher in the 9-hole for the first time in his career get him more strikeouts?

Offseason reports that Zambrano is throwing 94-mph aren't surprising -- the stuff has always been there. Does a fresh start with fellow Venezuelan, Ozzie Guillen, at manager make Big Z relevant again? Best case scenario: all goes perfect, where does he rank among starting pitchers?

(Full disclosure: I like both, and picked each in my slow draft)

I like Buehrle as a guy to use in home games, especially during 2 start weeks. The park will help and the fact he plays such great defense and really, really slows down the running game will play even better in the NL. I don't really know about the strikeouts, I don't draft him for strikeouts, but if you look at the difference between leagues, it is .4 K/9 - over 200 IP, that is 9 strikeouts. So on the average, an NL pitcher gets 9 more K's than the same AL pitcher - to me not worth worrying about.

I'm not touching Zambrano. Odd as this may seem, I'll look for my high risk, high reward shots on hitting and go for more stable pitching.

[telestar]

OK, you're definitely not a subscriber (at least not yet ) otherwise you would be higher on Haren, I have him in the Hamels/Lincecum range.

I think you are shorting Gallardo some K's which makes him the best of the other three.
Then I am not quite as high on Garza, still a FB guy in Wrigley, so he is 3rd
That said, Pineda is a wild card, who knows how NYC and Yankee Stadium will impact him?

Haren has only had an ERA over 3.7 once in the past 5 years. The next HIGHEST was 3.33. His xFIP has been 3.02-3.49 the past 4 years. To me. 3.7 is way too high.

OK - I see your point -

What if I asked about your tier 1 and tier 2 catchers? I was thinking about this as my list. Any major disagreements? Tier 1 with 6 C and Tier 2 with 6.
TIER ONE - in rough order
Carlos Santana/Buster Posey/Matt Wieters/Joe Mauer/Mike Napoli /Brian McCann
TIER TWO- in rough order
Alex Avila /Miguel Montero /Yadier Molina/Geovany Soto/Kurt Suzuki/Russell Martin

[Geoffrey Stein]

I'll stick with the "guys I scooped up in my slow draft theme..."

The Cardinals have had good luck as of late getting the most out of their veteran signings. What is the power upside for Carlos Beltran now that he's out of Citi Field and AT&T park? (Keeping in mind Busch Stadium isn't exactly a power paradise.) A repeat of his .300-22-84 from last season would make my happy with my 12th-round investment. Any chance he gets to 30 dingers and 100 RBI?

Jacob Turner in Detroit was one of the game's top prospects at this point last year, but struggled in his three starts late in the season -- not a surprise considering his age. Entering this year, though, it looks like the Tigers may be looking at him as their No. 4 or No. 5 starter. If he's figured things out, is there any chance that he's a viable Fantasy Baseball starter at any point in 2012?

[ToddZ]

What if I asked about your tier 1 and tier 2 catchers? I was thinking about this as my list. Any major disagreements? Tier 1 with 6 C and Tier 2 with 6.
TIER ONE - in rough order
Carlos Santana/Buster Posey/Matt Wieters/Joe Mauer/Mike Napoli /Brian McCann
TIER TWO- in rough order
Alex Avila /Miguel Montero /Yadier Molina/Geovany Soto/Kurt Suzuki/Russell Martin

My Tier 1 is smaller

Napoli/Santana/McCann

Tier 2

Montero/Wieters/Avila/Posey/Mauer

Tier 3

Arencibia/Molina/Soto/Buck/Suzuki