Not-So-Lucky 13

Wild Hare · Post by **Wild Hare** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 4:50 am

Stuck with the 13th pick overall - no idea how to plan for who might still be sitting there when the train pulls into the station.

I'm hoping for Abreu. Then maybe grab Peavy on the turn? Or should I just plan on taking the SP at #13? I thought I'd be loving KDS but then I still wind up with this mess...

Dak · Post by **Dak** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 4:53 am

Bay and than a SS or Figgins!

Wild Hare · Post by **Wild Hare** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 4:56 am

I'm assuming Santana goes in the Top 12. If he's there then it's a no-brainer.

ESPN8 THE OCHO · Post by **ESPN8 THE OCHO** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 5:28 am

I have an eligibility question. If a player is listed at a position on the 40 man roster sheet, but he only played 9 games at that position last year is he eligible? or just eligible at DH?

Red Sox Nation · Post by **Red Sox Nation** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 6:11 am

I'd go Bay/ Crawford and then Sheffield

steve · Post by **steve** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 8:27 am

take david ortiz then figgins

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 8:36 am

Take the best player available, and then after the turn around take the best player available again.

dogface · Post by **dogface** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 1:18 pm

i think you guys are dreaming if you think that bay/ortiz or crawford will be there at 13

i had #13 in a satellite league and was happy to get abreu and soriano on the flip side

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 1:32 pm

Originally posted by Red Sox Nation:

I'd go Bay/ Crawford and then Sheffield Me too! Unfortunately I'm drafting in the NFBC this year instead of a 6 man league.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 1:41 pm

Originally posted by ESPN8 THE OCHO:

I have an eligibility question. If a player is listed at a position on the 40 man roster sheet, but he only played 9 games at that position last year is he eligible? or just eligible at DH? Position eligibility lists are located on the main nfbc site. There is no definitive answer to your question as it depends on a number of variables like whether the guy only played in 9 games last year or whether he played 162 with 9 at the position. In the future, don't be afraid and throw the name right on out there. There's a good chance the people who read these boards have actually heard of the guy before.

Wild Hare · Post by **Wild Hare** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 2:17 pm

That's why I'm thinking Peavy - the top tier offensive talent is likely going to be gone by 13 and then I've got to wait another 20+ picks for the d@mn thing to snake back to me after my Rd. 2.

Am I missing the boat that Peavy is the clear #2 available SP after Santana?

In my mock drafts I'm seeing several SP gone in the mid-to-late 2nd and coming back through the 3rd. I've got to get ahead of that curve I think.

Bull Pen Pugs · Post by **Bull Pen Pugs** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 3:00 pm

Mocks are not very good to judge by in the tourney.... With auto picks for 3-4 teams each mo0ck and when the actually real event comes around, people do many different things...

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 3:48 pm

Originally posted by Wild Hare:

That's why I'm thinking Peavy - the top tier offensive talent is likely going to be gone by 13 and then I've got to wait another 20+ picks for the d@mn thing to snake back to me after my Rd. 2.

Am I missing the boat that Peavy is the clear #2 available SP after Santana?

In my mock drafts I'm seeing several SP gone in the mid-to-late 2nd and coming back through the 3rd. I've got to get ahead of that curve I think. I think the mdc prerankings usually overvalue SP's (at least according to normal draft tendencies) and you are seeing some runoff of that. The only clear 2nd round pitcher has been Pedro and I doubt that is still holding up.

It is highly unlikely that Peavy will go earlier than round 3, in my opinion. No, he is not the concensus #2 pitcher, but maybe he should be.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 4:06 pm

There's a clear drop-off after Santana, and several pitchers could go #2 in the main event.

More food for thought: Peavy was a 2nd or 3rd round pick in every satellite league I've seen.

abbott&costello · Post by **abbott&costello** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 4:43 pm

peavy has went 3rd round in every mock i've done.carpenter is better n on a better team.

Cooperstown · Post by **Cooperstown** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 5:06 pm

Originally posted by Wild Hare:

Stuck with the 13th pick overall - no idea how to plan for who might still be sitting there when the train pulls into the station.

I'm hoping for Abreu. Then maybe grab Peavy on the turn? Or should I just plan on taking the SP at #13? I thought I'd be loving KDS but then I still wind up with this mess... I'm lucky no. 13 too.

If Abreu is there, take him. There's nothing wrong with him that not competing in the homerun derby won't cure.

But you better have at least 3 different contingencies ready just in case. Maybe 4. There's nothing worse than looking at 3 guys you want with 3 picks to go to 13, and the next 3 teams take those 3 guys. If that happens, I suggest you go with the "high risk-high reward" strategy and take Bonds.

Wild Hare · Post by **Wild Hare** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 5:57 pm

Someone else with the unlucky 13. I feel your pain, Bro!

What about something like !Ichiro! at #13 and Helton coming back around - of the SP are going to last into Rd. 3?

MGBMARTY · Post by **MGBMARTY** » Tue Mar 14, 2006 10:08 pm

I had 13th last year and have it again this year Kind of like the spot this year based on what falls to you in 1st you can script next scenario Ortiz has been slipping Take his 40 hrs 120 rbis and with 2nd balance it out with a rabbitt

Reyes/Figgins/Rollins since all 3 will be gone in 2nd Value of player does not matter by Pick# but by round taken Example Rollins 27th ADP = 2nd round pick does it matter that you take him at 18th overall still a 2nd round pick As far as Mocks I was in 1 about a week ago 13th pick Was able to get Crawford in 1st and Johan in 2nd can not put much weight in mocks

Marty

Cooperstown · Post by **Cooperstown** » Wed Mar 15, 2006 2:45 am

Marty,

2 13's in a row. How did you get so lucky?

I'm with you on rating anyone that goes after the 2nd pick as a 2nd round guy. No sense even rating players to go in an odd number round at all.

Last year, how much did you keep up with 14 and 15's picks to know who to take with your odd number pick vs. the come back even round pick?

As I said earlier, I'll have about 4 contingencies ready. Certainly one of them will be a bomber with 1 and speed with 2.

What league are you in so I can see who you end up with?

Good luck.

MGBMARTY · Post by **MGBMARTY** » Wed Mar 15, 2006 2:53 am

Hey COOPS

I am in NY #4

Good Luck to you too.

Marty

Wild Hare · Post by **Wild Hare** » Wed Mar 15, 2006 3:01 am

coops - agree with you, man! Gotta get a masher with one pick and speed with another.

I'm hoping for Abreu or Bay now that I think about it and then Reys/Figgins/Pierre/Suzuki on the turn I guess.

It burns me to have to wait 20+ picks to see what's left on the SP heap but people seem to think the SP will last that long.

With Prior looking gimpy, doesn't that depress the SP pool even more? Aren't guys going to go for those frontline SP a little sooner now?

I guess the good thing about 13 is there isn't much downside talking about your strategy. Too late in the 1st round for most to care and too early in the 2nd for anyone to stop you.

Red Sox Nation · Post by **Red Sox Nation** » Wed Mar 15, 2006 3:33 am

Originally posted by Wild Hare:

coops - agree with you, man! Gotta get a masher with one pick and speed with another.

I'm hoping for Abreu or Bay now that I think about it and then Reys/Figgins/Pierre/Suzuki on the turn I guess.

It burns me to have to wait 20+ picks to see what's left on the SP heap but people seem to think the SP will last that long.

With Prior looking gimpy, doesn't that depress the SP pool even more? Aren't guys going to go for those frontline SP a little sooner now?

I guess the good thing about 13 is there isn't much downside talking about your strategy. Too late in the 1st round for most to care and too early in the 2nd for anyone to stop you.

I'm with you Wild Hare. If you don't get that top SP in 2 then you will see a huge drop off. maybe Bay/Crawford and then Peavy. I have 14 in my draft and I'm looking to do the same thing. If I do pass on a SP in Rd 2 I'm praying Reyes is there. I think he can steal 80 this year and lock up the 15 pts in that category for you.

Cooperstown · Post by **Cooperstown** » Wed Mar 15, 2006 3:39 am

Yeah, waiting 24 picks can be tough. Gives you too much time to think about all those players you should have taken instead.

I try not to over analyze too much and keep my strategies simple. Won't discuss too much here except to say that last year I took 2 1B's in a row, which wasn't what I wanted to do at all and I adjusted on the fly. But when Texieria fell to the 23rd pick I had to take him even with Helton. I call that my "take the best player availale strategy".

But that was in the 7 hole where you won't miss too many runs. At 13, you can miss a run at a position or type of player, so I might adjust this year. Those speedy IF's will definatley be gone by the 3rd so.....

Tough call.

JEagle · Post by **JEagle** » Wed Mar 15, 2006 4:40 am

I had 13 in a satelite & took Soriano in the 1st and then Tejada back around..wasn't expecting to get those 2 but sometimes you just have to take pick by pick..you never know what the people ahead of you are thinking

Dak · Post by **Dak** » Wed Mar 15, 2006 7:10 am

Originally posted by JEagle:

I had 13 in a satelite & took Soriano in the 1st and then Tejada back around..wasn't expecting to get those 2 but sometimes you just have to take pick by pick..you never know what the people ahead of you are thinking You're right about the picks ahead of you. In a $500 satellite - Figgins went # 4 over all and screwed up the whole first rd. I got Bay at 11 and M-Cab coming back - which was a shocker also. You have to be prepared for anything and be ready to adjust on the fly