The Mystery Of Justin Upton

[Greg Ambrosius]

If you look at the second round in the NFBC this year, you see several players who were first round picks last year and who could easily finish this season among the Top 10 performers. They could also under-perform once again too, but their upside is high. They include the likes of Evan Longoria, Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, David Wright and Justin Upton.

In these early drafts, nobody from this group is a bigger wild card than Justin Upton. The reason is obvious: We don't know what park he will be hitting in this year or even what league he will be playing in. The Diamondbacks seem determined to trade him and they were close with Seattle yesterday before Upton invoked his no-trade clause. Not only didn't Upton want to go to Seattle but fantasy-owners didn't want to see him go there either!! That move could have really hurt his overall numbers even with the Mariners bringing in the outfield fences this year.

Remember, Upton has been dynamite at Chase Field over the years. Here's some home/away splits:

2012
Home - .313-11-47-3-56
Away - .252-6-20-15-51

2011
Home - .333-20-56-12-57
Away - .246-11-32-9-48

There was hope that he would get traded to Texas, where you'd have to believe his home numbers would go up even further. But now the Rangers are saying they are done with negotiations for Upton. Where he goes now is anyone's guess.

I thought the reported trade from Seattle was a great one for Arizona and they definitely would have come out ahead in this deal. Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com reported that the Mariners offered one of Danny Hultzen, James Paxton or Taijuan Walker, plus Nick Franklin, Charlie Furbush and Stephen Pryor for Upton. Getting one of the Big Three would have been a steal and Franklin is going to end up being a solid utility infielder who can start at shortstop. Upton would have helped out Seattle's offense, but the package would have favored Arizona.

Now where does he land? And how are you guys drafting now looking at Upton's value? Does it matter where he lands or is the talent too good to ignore? His ADP is 24 right now, so he obviously has good value, but it will be interesting to see how that changes if/when a deal is finally made. What are your thoughts on Upton?

[Bronx Yankees]

I got him in the late second round in one draft and felt like it was good value. Given the uncertainty - both in terms of his team and how he'll play - I would be reluctant to draft him any earlier. In the right situation, he could deliver Top 15 value. On the other hand, I wouldn't be shocked if he had a repeat of last year, especially if he has to play in a pitcher's park OR stay with Arizona. Somehow I don't see him excelling - or killing himself to fight through injuries - if he winds up staying with the D'Backs after all the drama this off-season.

Also, I wouldn't totally rule out Texas just yet. I still see the Rangers making one more big move - either Upton or Bourn.

Mike (Bronx Yankees)

[Edwards Kings]

A lot of noise that it would be Atlanta, which is great, but still means the Braves will not have a lead-off man (guess they could try Simmons or settle on Prado). Not sure Atlanta would give up what it would take to get him.

I think he stays in the desert. Kubel goes.

[Captain Hook]

A lot of noise that it would be Atlanta, which is great, but still means the Braves will not have a lead-off man (guess they could try Simmons or settle on Prado). Not sure Atlanta would give up what it would take to get him.

I think he stays in the desert. Kubel goes.

I will copy my column later but I think ATL is the destination (Rangers can make the trade easier and Tampa needs him more but I think it doesn't cost the Braves much) for one higher P prospect, another P or MI prospect, and Juan Francisco who with Upton there and Prado moved to third has no job in Atlanta and could win the job over Chris Johnson in Arizona

[Captain Hook]

link - http://www.mastersball.com/index.php?op ... 1358020743

and column -


Misconceptions from A Through U

Captain's Log

Written by Perry Van Hook

Saturday, 12 January 2013 07:30

As in Arizona and Justin Upton and their trade with Seattle as you have seen on many channels today. I see many opinions about the deal between the Diamondbacks and Mariners, but many of those are flawed in my view.

Yes, both the Diamondbacks and Mariners knew that J-Up had Seattle as one of the four teams on his no-trade clause. But not only are there ways around that, Seattle adding a sweetener that would convince Upton to drop his block, perhaps a transfer bonus, buying him a house in Seattle or more likely giving him an option for the third remaining year (2015) on his current contract.

But both Arizona and Seattle announced the trade (purportedly without asking Upton) for additional reasons. For Arizona, they get other teams to take notice that they are in fact serious about trading Upton, not just “listening to trade offers.” The failed trade may re-open dialogue with Texas or initiate discussions with Atlanta, where Justin could be united in the Braves outfield with his older brother.

Atlanta would know they could then move Martin Prado to third base, thus making Juan Francisco a potential part of the Upton trade along with one of Randall Delgado/Julio Teheran and a younger pitching prospect.

Texas no longer has to offer either Elvis Andrus or Jurickson Profar, as Arizona received Didi Gregorius in their deal with Cleveland. So third baseman Mike Olt is the first piece along with a few of the Rangers' many good pitching prospects.

Seattle, if they could swing the deal (and unlike many articles penned today I don’t think they would be giving up too much), would then have Upton adding to their weak offense AND playing with Felix Hernandez along with many other pieces they either have in place or are just a phone call away. They would only be parting with Taijuan Walker and still have top pitching prospects Danny Hultzen and James Paxton ready late this year or more likely in 2014.

But even if they couldn’t convince Justin Upton to move north, they let other teams know that the presumably untouchable Walker would be available if they could meet the Mariners' price. So if they can’t make the Upton trade, they may get many new offers this week.

Bottom line in my opinion is even if they can’t complete the Upton trade, both the Diamondbacks and Mariners made other strides in trying to better their respective teams.

[Edwards Kings]

Nice article, Mr. Perry.

We will see. Not that I would cry to see an outfield of Upton, Upton, and Heyward. Nice.

I have been expecting the Braves to go cheap on another OFer out of some other teams fourth like an Eric Young or something.