Braun Suspended For Rest Of 2013 Season

[Greg Ambrosius]

We started another NFBC Draft Champions League last night and Braun once again fell out of the Top 3. Last night he went 4th overall. It started:
Cabrera
Trout
Cano
Braun

Nothing new has come out on Braun, but he's no longer the No. 1 pick. How long is that going to last?

[Outlaw]

We started another NFBC Draft Champions League last night and Braun once again fell out of the Top 3. Last night he went 4th overall. It started:
Cabrera
Trout
Cano
Braun

Nothing new has come out on Braun, but he's no longer the No. 1 pick. How long is that going to last?

As long as you and Tom vouch for his being clean he'll stay top 5... lol Seriously, he'll flucuate- we got 7 weeks to go before games and final drafts, I suspect they'll be a lot more information coming out one way or another.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Two more NFBC drafts tonight and Braun went 4th in each one. Since Tuesday night's announcement, Braun has gone 5th, 4th, 4th, 4th in 4 NFBC drafts after going No. 1 overall in 4 of 6 previous drafts. Pretty crazy, if you ask me.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Not crazy at all from my perspective.
The drop between the 'top three' is not huge, just noticeable.
Cast doubt on any one of those top 3, and drafters get antsy.
I know it's easy for media folks to say this or that,or to even firmly believe this or that, but this is what the adp is all about. Money is on the line with these picks, not just opinions.
Not crazy at all.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Not crazy at all from my perspective.
The drop between the 'top three' is not huge, just noticeable.
Cast doubt on any one of those top 3, and drafters get antsy.
I know it's easy for media folks to say this or that,or to even firmly believe this or that, but this is what the adp is all about. Money is on the line with these picks, not just opinions.
Not crazy at all.

I totally get that Dan. EVERY pick is risky. Trout is risky. Heck, Matt Kemp went ahead of him and I think he's risky. Andrew McCutchen went ahead of him and he's no sure thing. So the people who are afraid to pick Braun right now because of Tuesday's news are ALSO taking risk with new picks in the Top 3.

I'm not saying they are wrong. I'm just saying it's surprising right now given the little evidence we've had from Tuesday on. Meanwhile, Trout is still 20 and entering his sophomore season and Kemp is still recovering from shoulder surgery.

I'm not saying anyone is wrong here and I hope I'm not a media type. I'm just saying that from Tuesday to now a guy who can go .320-30-100-35-100 is dropping out of the Top 3.

But you're right, maybe he's juiced and maybe he will get a 50-game suspension because MLB (led by former Milwaukee owner Bud Selig) wants to GET him this time.

[Baseball Furies]

Not crazy at all from my perspective.
The drop between the 'top three' is not huge, just noticeable.
Cast doubt on any one of those top 3, and drafters get antsy.
I know it's easy for media folks to say this or that,or to even firmly believe this or that, but this is what the adp is all about. Money is on the line with these picks, not just opinions.
Not crazy at all.

Well Dough, looks like you have a bid decision to make then come next Saturday with the number one overall pick in the Mia draft, don't you? Glad I don't have to make that decision...but then again, I've never had the pleasure of being in that position to have that problem.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I didn't say anything about Braun's guilt, it's the threat of the guilt.
The other factors have all already been weighed about Trout and Kemp and McCutchen.
The news about Braun is the only thing dropping him. It's new.
When other news comes in to support him or to bury him, he'll move again.
I told a friend that I thought he would go anywhere from 4th to 8th after this news.
It looks like he has settled into the 4/5 spot.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Not crazy at all from my perspective.
The drop between the 'top three' is not huge, just noticeable.
Cast doubt on any one of those top 3, and drafters get antsy.
I know it's easy for media folks to say this or that,or to even firmly believe this or that, but this is what the adp is all about. Money is on the line with these picks, not just opinions.
Not crazy at all.

Well Dough, looks like you have a bid decision to make then come next Saturday with the number one overall pick in the Mia draft, don't you? Glad I don't have to make that decision...but then again, I've never had the pleasure of being in that position to have that problem.

Nope Mike, I think the pressure starts at number three.
To tell the truth, I didn't have Braun number one anyway, so it's not a big deal in that sense.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I perfectly understand how Braun is falling to 4.
We are by nature, risk averse.
Cabrera and Cano have little risk.
Trout now has less risk than Braun now,despite not having a long track record. His drafters are betting that they get Braun-like numbers without a judgment hanging over his head.
Kemp, McCutchen, and Braun are now in the 'other 3' spot.
At least till the news changes.

Are there still risks?
Darn tootin' there's still risks!
But that is how it's being played.

[Navel Lint]

Not crazy at all from my perspective.
The drop between the 'top three' is not huge, just noticeable.
Cast doubt on any one of those top 3, and drafters get antsy.
I know it's easy for media folks to say this or that,or to even firmly believe this or that, but this is what the adp is all about. Money is on the line with these picks, not just opinions.
Not crazy at all.

I agree.

ADP has become a self-fulfilling prophecy, and it's gotten worse over the past couple of seasons with addition of slow draft data.

"Ryan Braun is ADP number 1, so he must be number 1, so I'll take him number 1, which will validate his being number 1"

Based on historical results of first round picks, Ryan Braun has just as good a chance of finishing outside the top 15 in player rating at the end of the year as he does finishing in it. Add any sort of uncertainty to the mix and it would almost seem foolish to take him at number 1.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Just one more point and I'll step down from the podium....

I was talking with a friend of mine today and he made a great point.
He said that last year at this time, public opinion ran 80-20 AGAINST Braun. Thinking was, that he was guilty and serve his 50 day sentence.
As such, he fell to the second and third rounds in drafts.
And it turns out the 20 per cent were right.

A year later, Braun's name is brought up again. This time, evidence is less compelling and 80-20 per cent of public opinion think that there will NOT be a sentence.
Still, drafters know that that 20 per cent were right last year.
And it makes them, at the least, less certain to pull the trigger on Braun at the top of any draft.

The public just plain does not know all the facts and we are only forming opinions from what MLB and their people, Braun and his people, and the press want us to hear. The pertinent facts may not be known.

[BK METS]

Just one more point and I'll step down from the podium....

I was talking with a friend of mine today and he made a great point.
He said that last year at this time, public opinion ran 80-20 AGAINST Braun. Thinking was, that he was guilty and serve his 50 day sentence.
As such, he fell to the second and third rounds in drafts.
And it turns out the 20 per cent were right.

A year later, Braun's name is brought up again. This time, evidence is less compelling and 80-20 per cent of public opinion think that there will NOT be a sentence.
Still, drafters know that that 20 per cent were right last year.
And it makes them, at the least, less certain to pull the trigger on Braun at the top of any draft.

The public just plain does not know all the facts and we are only forming opinions from what MLB and their people, Braun and his people, and the press want us to hear. The pertinent facts may not be known.

The difference was, last year, he had already been suspended and no PED suspension had ever been overturned. This year, he hasn't failed a test and it appears he has a pretty good alibi as to why Bosch was paid. I think if you polled 100 fantasy baseball owners, more than 80 thought the suspension would have held up last year. More like 95 out of 100.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Just one more point and I'll step down from the podium....

I was talking with a friend of mine today and he made a great point.
He said that last year at this time, public opinion ran 80-20 AGAINST Braun. Thinking was, that he was guilty and serve his 50 day sentence.
As such, he fell to the second and third rounds in drafts.
And it turns out the 20 per cent were right.

A year later, Braun's name is brought up again. This time, evidence is less compelling and 80-20 per cent of public opinion think that there will NOT be a sentence.
Still, drafters know that that 20 per cent were right last year.
And it makes them, at the least, less certain to pull the trigger on Braun at the top of any draft.

The public just plain does not know all the facts and we are only forming opinions from what MLB and their people, Braun and his people, and the press want us to hear. The pertinent facts may not be known.

The difference was, last year, he had already been suspended and no PED suspension had ever been overturned. This year, he hasn't failed a test and it appears he has a pretty good alibi as to why Bosch was paid. I think if you polled 100 fantasy baseball owners, more than 80 thought the suspension would have held up last year. More like 95 out of 100.

Probably so. If only five per cent 'won' last year, even more compelling to shy away from Braun.

[Outlaw]

So, lets just say they suspend him for 50 games, Where does he fall to then? 3rd-4th round?

Is anyone just staying away from him completely based on current news?

[Gekko]

if there is no more "evidence" against braun, anyone taking him outside the top 3 is getting a christmas present. ZERO chance he gets suspended. zero

[TOXIC ASSETS]

There is not "zero" chance he gets suspended. Just like it took them 10 years to catch Lance Armstrong....there are too many coincidences hanging around this guy. He should have been suspended the last time as there was little doubt he was doping, and those that took him then got their Christmas present. Only thing that saved him and his drafters was incompetence by the testing agency.

There is no way, make that ABSOLUTELY no way, I'm drafting this guy with the threat of a long suspension. Too many other good options including rock solid pitching early on. I'll let the next guy take the gamble.

[Joe Sambito]

I was sitting in the 3-hole in the first draft after the Braun "news". I passed, took Cano, and I am perfectly fine with it. I don't know if Braun will get suspended, with I think the possibility is there. However remote it may be, at three it was enough for me to pass. Further down the line in Round 1 I am not sure I would have felt the same way.

This doesn't necessarily have to be info pertaining to 2012. Couldn't it be more info about prior to 2012. It is not like "double jeopardy" can be invoked. Can it?

[Greg Ambrosius]

In two NFBC drafts that were started yesterday, Braun went 3rd and 1st overall. Well, at least he's back in the Top 3.

[JEagle]

Short of Bosch testifying in court that Braun took PEDs. I don't see how he gets suspended without a positive test.

[Greg Ambrosius]

In the only NFBC draft starting tonight, Ryan Braun went 3rd again. So after going 5th, 4th, 4th and 4th, Braun has now gone 3rd, 1st and 3rd this weekend. It looks like Miguel Cabrera is benefitting from all of this and becoming the new consensus No. 1 pick, with Braun finding himself back in the Top 3 again. Interesting.

We'll keep watching these latest drafts and see if the trend continues.

[NorCalAtlFan]

wow, looks like the boys from Iola are taking this personal.
easy boys, your boy got off last year on a technicality, and probably will this year too.

[Bama]

Since his ped supplier is out of buisness do we know if he's got a new supplier yet. Probably wont get suspended but if i take him in the top 3 i would like to know he's still cheating to get his usual numbers.

[mbendar16]

The last point about a new PED supplier for Braun is what's frustrating to me about this whole steroid mess every time someone's name comes up. Has Braun been cheating since he is 16 years old? He went to a top college, was a 1st round pick and dominated every level of the minors and throughout his career in the majors without much fluctation in his results year to year. I guess in this time where everyone is guilty, I wouldn't be surprised if he is truly is, but would like to think that some of the best players in the game are performing on their natural talents. Maybe that is just too naive of a hope.

[rockitsauce]

From the hometown paper, ok it was a Mil. writer's blog featuring views expressed by Bob Costas, but still...he makes some valid points.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/190457531.html

[swampass]

i cant stand that costas punk but its the exact point i wrote here over a week ago. the coincidences are just too strong. its too weird. there is nobody else that knows about peds, drug testing etc except for this bosch guy? if im braun and this is was my lawyers idea.. he is fired today (last week actually). but since nobody is getting fired i have a hard time believing that they had to pay bosch $20k-$30k to tell braun and company that you have a case because the guy put your sample into his own fridge and waited a few days to mail it. the local postman could have told you that.

its a joke...if braun is suspended then the brewers should have a "Ryan Braun" night where everyone's ticket is comped by the team with the money they get back from brauns suspension.