Are We Seeing A Seismic Change In Baseball?

[Greg Ambrosius]

We all know that offensive numbers have gone down in Major League Baseball over the last couple of years, but have we all realized that these numbers have fallen so much that it's actually changed the way we play fantasy baseball? Have you adjusted to these changes yet or are you still stuck in 2004 when the NFBC first started? Well, if you haven't changed then you should do it after looking at the numbers from the past 10 years because I'm seeing a MAJOR change in this game we all love so much.

Yesterday when I was updating the NFBC records, I noticed that the leaders in Batting Average, Home Runs, RBIs and Runs all had the lowest seasonal totals in our 10-year history. And I mean in the 15-team format and even in the 12-team format the dropoff was phenomenal. Sure enough, the pitching categories were just the opposite as ERA, WHIP and Strikeouts were all the best numbers of any year since 2004.

So I reached out to the STATS Research Department this morning to check on these numbers from each of the last 10 years and here's what I found for each category:

Hitting Totals by Year
Year Cumulative MLB Batting Average
2004 .266
2005 .264
2006 .269
2007 .268
2008 .264
2009 .262
2010 .257
2011 .255
2012 .255
2013 .253

Year Home Runs
2004 5,451
2005 5,017
2006 5,386
2007 4,957
2008 4,878
2009 5,042
2010 4,613
2011 4,552
2012 4,934
2013 4,661

Year RBI
2004 22,248
2005 21,248
2006 22,491
2007 22,257
2008 21,541
2009 21,364
2010 20,288
2011 19,804
2012 19,998
2013 19,271

Year Runs
2004 23,376
2005 22,325
2006 23,599
2007 23,322
2008 22,585
2009 22,419
2010 21,308
2011 20,808
2012 21,017
2013 20,255

Pitching Totals by Year
Year ERA
2004 4.46
2005 4.28
2006 4.52
2007 4.46
2008 4.32
2009 4.31
2010 4.07
2011 3.94
2012 4.01
2013 3.86

Year WHIP
2004 1.40
2005 1.37
2006 1.41
2007 1.41
2008 1.39
2009 1.39
2010 1.35
2011 1.32
2012 1.31
2013 1.30

Year Strikeouts
2004 31,828
2005 30,644
2006 31,655
2007 32,189
2008 32,884
2009 33,591
2010 34,306
2011 34,488
2012 36,426
2013 36,710

MLB scored 3,344 fewer runs in 2013 than it did in 2007 with 4,521 more strikeouts than in 2007. Home runs dropped by 725 in the last 8 years, while batting average continues to drop each year since 2006 and is now at historic lows.

Does any of this info change our drafting habits? Are we foolish not to grab a top starting pitcher early in our drafts? Is Clayton Kershaw more valuable than most hitters as the anchor of your pitching staff? Are the young arms the way to go in the future rather than young bats? Our game is in an amazing transformation and yet I'm not sure everyone sees what is happening. Maybe it's time to re-evaluate how we build our winning rosters, or have others already done that before some of us realized that we should be doing it?

What do you think? Heck, should MLB be concerned about these declining offensive numbers? Who watches the game when there are fewer runners, fewer runs and more swings and misses? When the ball isn't even in play more than 30 percent of all at-bats, who watches a game of swing and miss? What's your thoughts on all of this?

[Bronx Yankees]

Really interesting. I'd also be curious as to how stolen bases have changed from year to year. The one thing that has puzzled me at times is that in this era of dominant pitching and fewer runs, I would expect more teams to play "small ball" and rely on stolen bases, hitting and running, bunting and emphasizing hitting to the right side to advance runners. After all, runs are now more valuable. While stolen bases seem a little more prevalent to me, I don't see any of the other skills being practiced with increased frequency. In fact, it seems like the opposite is happening and teams and players are relying more on home runs, even at the expense of striking out more and putting fewer balls in play.

While this swing-for-the-fences mentality aids many pitchers, I don't remember many (or any) years where there are so many great young pitchers. Look at the rookies: Fernandez, Cole, Wacca, Gray, Miller, Rosenthal, Salazar, Cingriani, Wheeler, Kluber, Perez, etc (I'm sure I'm leaving out many). There also were great performances by other really young pitchers (Harvey, Teheran, Cobb, Parker, Corbin, and Sale, among others).

I think Kershaw is a solid pick somewhere in the middle of the first round and is less risky than many hitters likely to be taken in the first round.

Mike

[ToddZ]

SB were on the rise the past few seasons but they fell this season, pretty steeply.

Recall that several high-volume base stealers came over to the AL from the NL (Reyes, Bourn, Victorino - there were a couple others). Be it injuries or league difference, steals fell.

Other than PED's, a major reason for the dropoff is defense is changing the game - specifically the shifts. BABIP is down, which is in large part to better defensive positioning.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Agreed Todd.
Mark Teixeira was a .300 hitter before shifts. Now, Dunn-like.
Shifts caught up with Chris Davis last year. His avg over the second half, under .250
And now, shifts are beginning to be employed for right handers as well.
There is still more room for diminished numbers from hitters.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Really interesting. I'd also be curious as to how stolen bases have changed from year to year. The one thing that has puzzled me at times is that in this era of dominant pitching and fewer runs, I would expect more teams to play "small ball" and rely on stolen bases, hitting and running, bunting and emphasizing hitting to the right side to advance runners. After all, runs are now more valuable. While stolen bases seem a little more prevalent to me, I don't see any of the other skills being practiced with increased frequency. In fact, it seems like the opposite is happening and teams and players are relying more on home runs, even at the expense of striking out more and putting fewer balls in play.

While this swing-for-the-fences mentality aids many pitchers, I don't remember many (or any) years where there are so many great young pitchers. Look at the rookies: Fernandez, Cole, Wacca, Gray, Miller, Rosenthal, Salazar, Cingriani, Wheeler, Kluber, Perez, etc (I'm sure I'm leaving out many). There also were great performances by other really young pitchers (Harvey, Teheran, Cobb, Parker, Corbin, and Sale, among others).

I think Kershaw is a solid pick somewhere in the middle of the first round and is less risky than many hitters likely to be taken in the first round.

Mike

Here you go:

Stolen Bases by Year

2004 2589
2005 2565
2006 2767
2007 2918
2008 2799
2009 2970
2010 2959
2011 3279
2012 3229
2013 2693

[Bronx Yankees]

Thanks, Greg. Really interesting. That's quite a big drop from 2012 and the lowest level since 2005. I think folks should take these trends into account when crafting a team. Exactly how to do that is the challenge.

Mike

[Outlaw]

Quite a few ex MLB playrs who played in the last 15 years have said the biggest thing PEDS did to help player performance was hand and eye coordination, along with swing speed. Less of both equals less squaring up of the ball and lower swing speeds. People think its all about power, bigger muscles, etc but it's not. The pitching benefit from using PEDS was not a big help, that is why most players caught the past 5 years have been hitters. We will probaly have at least 2 more years of declining offensive performance for a multitude of reasons. Braun should be a pretty good benchmark next year. My own prediction is at best, If healthy, he might go .275, 20-25 HR, 10 SB, 80-90 RBI. We'll see how good he is for the first time since he entered MLB without PEDS.

[headhunters]

you are assuming braun will be clean next year. mlb has not caught these guys (for the most part) by testing. given the current state of the penalties it is still very much worth it to cheat. braun does not have financial incentive- but given what we know now; that press conference he held 2 years ago tells a lot about him as a human. like a rod he may just go right on cheating.

[Greg Ambrosius]

1-0 Detroit
1-0 St. Louis

Two GREAT baseball playoff games for purists, but should baseball be worried that the game is turning into soccer??

[whale4evr]

A 1-0 game with a no-hitter on the line in the ninth shouldn't take four hours to play.

[Outlaw]

1-0 Detroit
1-0 St. Louis

Two GREAT baseball playoff games for purists, but should baseball be worried that the game is turning into soccer??

Baseball will be fine, even with the reduced offense occuring. The playoffs always have teams that generally have the best pitching staffs. Always been that way, always will be that way. Most teams don't even have a legit number 1 starter, let alone 10 decent pitchers. One thing about all these young stud pitchers the last few years, though they may throw 95-100, most have no quality secondary pitches, the change-up is a lost art and most have lousey control. Hitters will make the adjustments and I believe we will see higher pitch counts and more walks in the next few years. Doubles hitters will become valuable, as the HR continues its slide becuase of fewer PEDS in the game.