Projection: Darvish 20 wins

[Deadheadz]

A 13 game winner in 2013, Yu Darvish should see greater run support with the Rangers' additions of Prince Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo, and JP Arencibia.

In 2013 Darvish had 10 outings of 2 Earned Runs or fewer where he did not get the win.

Plus, Yu Darvish can run a mile with ease.

[Bama]

A 13 game winner in 2013, Yu Darvish should see greater run support with the Rangers' additions of Prince Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo, and JP Arencibia.

In 2013 Darvish had 10 outings of 2 Earned Runs or fewer where he did not get the win.

Plus, Yu Darvish can run a mile with ease.

Lets don't get stupid here. Debatable whether the lineup is better or not but the bullpen has a whole lot more Question marks. That's call it a wash and with a little more luck maybe 15 wins.

[Bronx Yankees]

In today's baseball, with five-men starting rotations, I don't think you can project ANY pitcher for 20 wins. Darvish made 32 starts last year, pitched very well, and only had 13 wins. While Fielder and Choo are excellent additions, they lost Kinsler and Cruz, offsetting some (but not all) of that gain. One could argue that Darvish also out-pitched some of his peripherals and may regress in ERA and WHIP to some extent. Also, as with all pitchers, there is injury risk, and Darvish has had some - albeit minor to date - medical issues.

I think Darvish is a great pitcher, so don't interpret this as me busting on Darvish. I just don't think you can pencil in any pitcher for 20 wins. Sure, there is a chance, if everything breaks right, that Darvish will get 20 wins, but it is unlikely. Hell, the best pitcher in baseball, Clayton Kershaw, made 33 starts last year, pitched 236 stellar innings with a ridiculous 1.83 ERA and 0.92 WHIP for a play-off team, and only had 16 wins.

Mike

[tslive]

"Let's don't get stupid here". That's so funny I'm not sure it wasn't intentional.

I don't think you can say Rangers' lineup being better is "debatable". While I don't think JP A will start or make any difference, I don't think anyone can argue that Fielder-Choo isn't a huge upgrade over Kinsler-Cruz.

As for the bullpen, I don't understand that statement either. Sure, they lost Nathan, but Feliz and Soria for a full year isn't too shabby.

Now whether that means 20 wins for Darvish is an entirely different story. 20 wins requires health which I'm not sure Darvish will be able to sustain over a whole season at top form. Matt Harrison's 18 wins in 2012 was the most wins for a Rangers pitcher since Rick Helling's 20 wins in 1998.

This is coming from a Darvish owner in both of my keeper leagues. He'll be one of the more interesting guys to watch in 2014, but I don't think a step forward is a given.

[Bronx Yankees]

A 13 game winner in 2013, Yu Darvish should see greater run support with the Rangers' additions of Prince Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo, and JP Arencibia.

In 2013 Darvish had 10 outings of 2 Earned Runs or fewer where he did not get the win.

Plus, Yu Darvish can run a mile with ease.

Lets don't get stupid here. Debatable whether the lineup is better or not but the bullpen has a whole lot more Question marks. That's call it a wash and with a little more luck maybe 15 wins.

Normally I'd agree with you re the Rangers' bullpen, but having just drafted Feliz in a DC draft a few hours ago, I find myself viewing their bullpen much more optimistically.

Mike

[Deadheadz]

As many fantasy baseball players who want to change the game of Roto will tell you Wins are a team stat and do not accurately reflect a pitchers value or performance as well as Quality Starts do.

I prefer Roto does not use QS.

Even losing Kinsler and Cruz, I think most of us can agree Texas will be a better team in 2014. Darvish could regress. He could wind up with worse ratios but still should be in line for several more wins.

[Rog]

what is a quality start ? 4.5 era in 6 innings?
How is that any projection of a pitchers performance?
Neson Cruz hit 27 hrs and had 76 rBi's with 5 steals in only 109 games in 413 at bats. I wonder if Prince will have those same numbers in that many at bats and games.
shoo is a definite upgrade in defense and on the base paths but do you think he will have them numbers in 413 at bats also?

[EWeaver]

More interesting is Matt Harrison. He's already demonstrated the ability to win 18 in a season (something Darvish has failed to achieve). In addition to the improved offense around Harrison, I've heard he lost 30 pounds and is in the best shape of his life. Given that the team around Harrison is exactly the same as the team around Darvish (to a man), it's only reasonable to bump him up the same amount of wins (7), plus one extra win for the weight loss, thus:

Projection: Matt Harrison, 26 wins.

[BK METS]

ERA and WHIP are the only true measure of a pitchers performance. Quality starts are a joke. My prediction is Darvish wins 16 games. Even if he wins 20, nothing supports a first round pick. Kershaw is in a league of his own.

[Bama]

More interesting is Matt Harrison. He's already demonstrated the ability to win 18 in a season (something Darvish has failed to achieve). In addition to the improved offense around Harrison, I've heard he lost 30 pounds and is in the best shape of his life. Given that the team around Harrison is exactly the same as the team around Darvish (to a man), it's only reasonable to bump him up the same amount of wins (7), plus one extra win for the weight loss, thus:

Projection: Matt Harrison, 26 wins.

I guess if your Smoking the same shit as Dead then 26 should be about right.

[Deadheadz]

what is a quality start ? 4.5 era in 6 innings?
How is that any projection of a pitchers performance?
Neson Cruz hit 27 hrs and had 76 rBi's with 5 steals in only 109 games in 413 at bats. I wonder if Prince will have those same numbers in that many at bats and games.
shoo is a definite upgrade in defense and on the base paths but do you think he will have them numbers in 413 at bats also?

I'm not arguing individual player stats with you. I feel Texas is a better team now. Do you disagree?

[Deadheadz]

ERA and WHIP are the only true measure of a pitchers performance. Quality starts are a joke. My prediction is Darvish wins 16 games. Even if he wins 20, nothing supports a first round pick. Kershaw is in a league of his own.

I agree that QS are a joke and I believe they have no place in Roto.
Leave them for the points leagues and H2H players.

This was the first league I've taken Darvish in this year and more than once I've seen him go on the wheel pick at 15/16. I had planned to take Prince at 12 and hope for Darvish at 19. On my turn I balked and took Darvish thinking Prince would fall lower than Encarnation. Flip the picks, are you happier if I took Prince first then Darvish?

[Deadheadz]

More interesting is Matt Harrison. He's already demonstrated the ability to win 18 in a season (something Darvish has failed to achieve). In addition to the improved offense around Harrison, I've heard he lost 30 pounds and is in the best shape of his life. Given that the team around Harrison is exactly the same as the team around Darvish (to a man), it's only reasonable to bump him up the same amount of wins (7), plus one extra win for the weight loss, thus:

Projection: Matt Harrison, 26 wins.

I haven't looked at the game log for Harrison but I'd wager he had more wins due to better run support. Are you saying that with a better team he'd have more wins when in actuality what we'd see is a similar win total but a greater margin of victory and possibly more IP in those games?

[EWeaver]

More interesting is Matt Harrison. He's already demonstrated the ability to win 18 in a season (something Darvish has failed to achieve). In addition to the improved offense around Harrison, I've heard he lost 30 pounds and is in the best shape of his life. Given that the team around Harrison is exactly the same as the team around Darvish (to a man), it's only reasonable to bump him up the same amount of wins (7), plus one extra win for the weight loss, thus:

Projection: Matt Harrison, 26 wins.

I haven't looked at the game log for Harrison but I'd wager he had more wins due to better run support. Are you saying that with a better team he'd have more wins when in actuality what we'd see is a similar win total but a greater margin of victory and possibly more IP in those games?

No, I'm saying I don't agree with your prediction.

Too many variables. Even if Tex is "better" than they were last year, their "betterness" has to be distributed (in part) while Darvish is on the field (he's out there for less than 20% of their total outs over the course of a season, assuming health) AND in line for a win. This isn't a given.

The five year average single season win total for SP's, limited to #1 SPs that had more than 30 starts on teams that had more than 81 wins, would be a reasonable projection, I guess.

"W" is an antiquated stat.

[Navel Lint]

In today's baseball, with five-men starting rotations, I don't think you can project ANY pitcher for 20 wins. Darvish made 32 starts last year

Since 2000, only 10 pitchers have won 20+ games while making 32 starts or less.

It's not impossible to win 20 games, but you are right, projecting 20 wins for any starter in the 2014 version of baseball has a very low probability of success.

[Edwards Kings]

what is a quality start ? 4.5 era in 6 innings?
How is that any projection of a pitchers performance?

Like most of the numbers, it is just one in the toolbox to me. Not as a stat to replace wins by any measure, but I do look at QS. For example, three earned runs in six innings is not really a big deal, I grant you. But the pitcher who does NOT have a high percentage of Quality Starts could not even achieve the 4.5 ERA (i.e. he was getting blown up or blown out on a regular basis). In context, QS can be useful.

Also, I did not predict 20 wins for Scherzer last year (I targeted him in the Main). I do not predict 20 for Darvish. He could, but if I had Darvish, anything over 15 would be gravy.

[Corleone]

There should be a new stat called Fantasy Quality Start which requires 7 IP, 3 ER or less, and at least 5 K's. Replace Wins with that.

[Deadheadz]

There should be a new stat called Fantasy Quality Start which requires 7 IP, 3 ER or less, and at least 5 K's. Replace Wins with that.

Fine with me so long as it's only for points leagues.

Players who want QS instead of W are looking for more certainty in getting results from picking Ace pitchers and other starting pitchers to a lesser degree.

The game of Roto was designed to have the same uncertainty and randomness that baseball itself does. For random reasons Cole Hamels was a good pitcher but didn't get a lot of W in 2013. Same for Cliff Lee in 2012. Same for King Felix in 2008 off the top of my head.

The same randomness will give some closers 5-6 wins while others get 0-1 wins while appearing in a similar number of games. The W can come from many places but that drives some fantasy players crazy. It's like touchdowns coming from the Kicker.

Roto is perfect the way it is. She is beautiful. Please leave her as she is.