I Specialize in Getting Mike Trout Out !

[DOUGHBOYS]

There's a hindrance to fantasy baseball and football that has been getting worse with each passing year. This hindrance is personal. Others may like it, I do not.
It is specialization.
Specialization is great for coaches and managers of each sport. They'll have there third down backs, and goal line backs, and platoon players, and lefty specialist. For fantasy, I like the Emmitt Smith type player. The guy who IS the guy.
A player who stays in the game.
Look at Billy Butler. He is a designated hitter. That is the position which takes the least amount of energy. Even so, Butler has become a seven or eight inning player in that he'll be pinch run for if getting on base then.
And you know what?
It's going to get worse.

I believe there will be a time when it will become the norm for pitchers to throw no more than three to five innings. Agents already have made a six inning start a 'quality start'. This would have been laughable as recently as the eighties.
Pitch counts have become a barometer, not innings.
And like innings, pitch counts will be reduced. Within five years, I believe that 100 pitches will be the maximum. Maybe even invoking a rule, for safety of arms.
And it won't stop there.
90, 80, and less will become the norm.
Pitchers from this era will be looked on in amazement for having thrown 120 pitches.

Eventually, major league rosters will be expanded to 27 players. Giving Managers a choice between 14 or 15 pitchers.
For a long time, we will still have a rotation of five or six starting pitchers.
Then, a Manager will put specialization to the real test.
A first inning will be started by a reliever. The second inning pitcher will be determined by who is coming up in the second inning. Using today's players, if Votto, Phillips, and Bruce were due up in the second inning, they would face a lefty reliever.
There may be a pitcher who specializes in getting individual players out.
A pitcher could be a nemesis for Mike Trout and Trout can bet that he will see that pitcher in every game of a series.

How Wins are determined to pitchers would change. It would not automatically go to starters who leave the game ahead and stays ahead after five innings or a reliever who has the good fortune of having his offense roll while he was on the mound.
It would be decided by the official scorekeeper in which of all pitchers, threw best.
Or possibly, the Win could be eliminated as a statistic.

This, of course, makes it even tougher on fantasy players.
Managers don't give a rats ass about fantasy baseball though. If anybody watched MLB yesterday, they had some stats that were eye-opening.
Batters have become all or nothing hitters. Balls not put in play are at an all time high. 31 per cent of at bats end in a strike out, walk, hbp, or home run.
This is an alarming stat. Not only for the message of what goes on the field, but for the fan watching.
A home run is an action, so we eliminate it.
Close to 25% of the time, a batter is striking out or walking. For one in four batters, fans are not seeing an action.
Boredom increases. The tv fan may change the channel. The fan at the ball park may resolve that this isn't the best way to spend their entertainment dollar.


Only one in every 15 batters will hit a single. This is an all time low.
Specialization and shifts play into this. Also, there are not as many batters LOOKING for a single.
Some players...strike that...almost EVERY player who is given a single, by way of a bunt vs. the shift by the opposition will pass on the opportunity.
Players know that singles do not translate to dollars.
Players are in the guise of being teammates. In reality, each is self-employed. Each, chasing the many dollars that are available, especially for hitters that go deep, not bunt for singles.

There were 2,000 shifts in 2011.
4,000 in 2012
8,000 in 2013
In 2014, teams are on pace for between 12,000-14,000 shifts.
These are all taking away a single from hitters, while inviting the bunt, yet hitters will not take advantage of what is given to them.

And how has specialization affected the late innings?
Before specialization, batting averages rose in late innings. The credo of getting the starter out of the game to get to the bullpen was an advantage.
Now, it is not.
Batting averages decrease now during later innings.
One third of batters hitting against relievers from the seventh inning on, will strike out.
This is a combination of facing even better, harder throwing relievers over the starter and the specialization of having lefty/lefty and righty/righty match-ups.
Sooner, than later, Managers and ball clubs will come to the conclusion that specialists throughout the game will be better than just saving them for the later innings.

It'll take a toll on offensive numbers. It'll take a toll on fantasy players.
I think fantasy players will adjust and also think that rules will change. I believe that roto and fantasy points will still remain intact. However, I do believe that Wins and Saves will eventually be replaced.
The Wins, I've already spoke bout. Saves will no longer be valid. Teams will no longer save 'their best for last'. Instead, it'll be match-up based, and the last pitcher is just that, the last pitcher.
What replaces Wins and Saves could be interesting.
Replacing Starters, when it comes down to Starters throwing between three and five innings, it could be the category of innings, themselves. A manager won't leave in a Starter who is not pitching well, but will tend to give the hot starter, more innings.
Replacing Saves, When it comes down to nine pitchers throwing nine innings, it could be games pitched. Fantasy players would be betting on who gets used most on a daily basis in this system.

It'll be a different game for sure. When thinking about the future, it makes me feel a little bit at ease with the specialization that is in place now.
It is workable for fantasy sports. The heyday of fantasy sports has already passed us though. Although the hobby gets larger and larger every year, gone are the days of drafting Emmitt Smith and watching him play every snap from kick off to last seconds.
And gone are the days of the Complete game gem. We get reminders of these about once or twice a week, but they are becoming extinct fast.
Real football and baseball are changing fast. And fantasy is along for the ride.
For those that have played fantasy sports over the last few years, we got the best.

[headhunters]

white sox fire pitching coach (walker). adam dunn starts hitting singles AND going the other way. average from .180 to .280. tyler flowers- same thing -only average goes from .180 to .380. where did walker go? braves- . it will take a few years to undo what he is doing. do we need anything else here?

[Yah Mule]

Lots of good thoughts as usual. I don't see owners going for expanded rosters, though, regardless of the game's strategic evolution.