10 Questions.....

[DOUGHBOYS]

Just thinking about next year and I have some questions on my mind.
Maybe you can help answering them.....

1. Joe Mauer will be 1B only next year.
At that position, what really separates Joe Mauer from James Loney?

2. Victor Martinez will not be a Catcher next year. In fact, VMart needs six more games at 1B to qualify in having 1B status.
The Tigers only have five more road games vs. N.L. opponents...
If VMart is U-only, where does he go in the draft next year?

3. George Springer.
Sophomore Jinx? Which round is he drafted?

4. Bryce Harper.
Surely, his days of being a pretend first rounder are gone, right?
Or does the hype machine once again work its magic propelling him to the top round yet again....
Where does he go in next year's draft?

5. Is it Kershaw and everybody else?
Or does Wainwright or somebody else come close enough to put them in the same class?

6. Carlos Santana has Adam Dunn type numbers. He only has 11 games at Catcher and it looks like he won't qualify at the position next year.
As a 1B/3B, where do you draft Santana next year?

7. Which of the trio of home run hitters, Encarnacion, Cruz, and Abreu will be first round material next year?
One, two, or all three?

8. Which of the trio of base stealers, Hamilton, Altuve, and Gordon will be second round material next year?
One, two, or all three?

9. Where do you draft Matt Harvey?

10. Last year, the top three picks were Trout, Cabrera, Goldschmidt.
I see more variance after the Trout pick. Tulo has instilled confidence in drafters and Cabrera has had problems putting the ball in the seats and has lost 3B status.
Don't give me YOUR top five picks, give me the top five ADP picks for next year.

Have fun with these.
It's getting near the All-Star break.
For some, it means gearing up for the second half.
For others, time to give it a rest.
For the Dark Side, it is time to really get into Fantasy Football.
And for a small few, it is time to look at next year

[Quack]

2. Victor Martinez will not be a Catcher next year. In fact, VMart needs six more games at 1B to qualify in having 1B status.
The Tigers only have five more road games vs. N.L. opponents...
If VMart is U-only, where does he go in the draft next year?

He was U only to start the year in 2014 as well, and gained 1B in season thus far

[DOUGHBOYS]

2. Victor Martinez will not be a Catcher next year. In fact, VMart needs six more games at 1B to qualify in having 1B status.
The Tigers only have five more road games vs. N.L. opponents...
If VMart is U-only, where does he go in the draft next year?

He was U only to start the year in 2014 as well, and gained 1B in season thus far

Yes, I know that.......
But, he did not have a huge season going into 2014.
And don't forget...VMart is a free agent to be....
Was this a contract year run?......
The question is, where would you take him in 2015?

[headhunters]

#10- i will go with top 5 of trout, miggy, goldy, tulo and mccutchen. mccutchen is on a role. espn player rater has altuve as their #1- but that is not our rules. with king felix as top pitcher. man, hitting vs 2007 when i started- just unbelievable. how many of these dudes were using? 70%?

[Edwards Kings]

1. Joe Mauer will be 1B only next year. At that position, what really separates Joe Mauer from James Loney?

Good point. Still, Mauer will go earlier in most drafts based on the chance he could get in 10 games at catcher. Bet he goes in the top 10 rounds.

2. Victor Martinez will not be a Catcher next year. In fact, VMart needs six more games at 1B to qualify in having 1B status. The Tigers only have five more road games vs. N.L. opponents... If VMart is U-only, where does he go in the draft next year?

Eight years out of nine (if he keeps it up this year) with a BA above .300, power up this year and 20 to 25 probably not a bad range for HR for him next year....top five rounds in 2015 especially given that BA as a whole on the decline and power getting scarce or at least scarcer.

3. George Springer. Sophomore Jinx? Which round is he drafted?

BA will keep him out of the top two, but those that go pitcher early will jump on his power. Third round, maybe fourth. Sophomore Jinx does not exist.

4. Bryce Harper. Surely, his days of being a pretend first rounder are gone, right? Or does the hype machine once again work its magic propelling him to the top round yet again....Where does he go in next year's draft?

Believe in the hype! The hype is your friend! One good month over the last three this year and he is second round. Not first.

5. Is it Kershaw and everybody else? Or does Wainwright or somebody else come close enough to put them in the same class??

TBD. Second half hot streak could put others near him (Scherzer, Darvish). At the All-Star Break, however, his is in that Pedro/Randy Johnson solo class of old.

6. Carlos Santana has Adam Dunn type numbers. He only has 11 games at Catcher and it looks like he won't qualify at the position next year. As a 1B/3B, where do you draft Santana next year?

Upside due to potential to get 10 games at catcher. Downside never had a plus BA and this year stinks. Top ten rounds yes, but not top five.

7. Which of the trio of home run hitters, Encarnacion, Cruz, and Abreu will be first round material next year? One, two, or all three?

If Edwin comes back from the injury and has an Edwin-esque August/September, yes. Cruz will get his contract now and should not be in the first round, but will not last until the fourth. Abreu...unless he falls off the face of the earth, how could you not consider him for the first round?

8. Which of the trio of base stealers, Hamilton, Altuve, and Gordon will be second round material next year? One, two, or all three?

Altuve and Gordon definitely given their positions will give them a little extra boost. They will be a little SB run in and of themselves and will probably pull Hamiliton (and his .315 OBP) along with them.

9. Where do you draft Matt Harvey?

Wait...refresh my memory...he plays (or not plays) for one of them northern teams, right? Doubtful in the top ten rounds. Will be most teams third starter say round 12 or 13 maybe?

10. Last year, the top three picks were Trout, Cabrera, Goldschmidt. I see more variance after the Trout pick. Tulo has instilled confidence in drafters and Cabrera has had problems putting the ball in the seats and has lost 3B status. Don't give me YOUR top five picks, give me the top five ADP picks for next year.

Same three with Stanton and Tulo. And Votto....

[DOUGHBOYS]

I'm going to answer some of my own questions......
My answers differ strongly from Wayne's. Which makes questions like these fun. Nobody is right and nobody is wrong till about this time next year

1. The only thing Mauer has over Loney is a higher batting spot and name recognition.
I would hope that neither has to be on my team and don't think either should be touched till double digit rounds.
Also, with his Superstar status, I think Mauer's catching days are behind him.

2. When folks think of David Ortiz next year, they'll also think of Victor Martinez. If VMart makes the poor decision of signing with an N.L. team, his stock will plummet. If signing with the Tigers or a contending team with a hitter's park, his stock levels.
I'm thinking around the sixth round.

3. The NFBC drafters love youngsters. They don't even really have to prove themselves over a long period of time. Seriously, look at those bids for Mookie Betts.
George Springer has already had a Harper-type year in just half a season.
I believe the hype machine goes full throttle and Springer is a second round pick, even pushing the first for some.

4. One day, Bryce Harper will lead baseball in homers. But, it won't be soon. Harper has not learned to play baseball at the highest level yet. He is his own worst enemy. And really, has done nothing to warrant being a first round pick.
Still, there is at least one of 15 of us who BELIEVE.
Harper will stay in the second or third rounds.
Why, I don't know.

5. It is Kershaw and everybody else.

6. Like Votto, Santana has fallen in love with the walk. He has been taken over the last three years in the 3-5 rounds.
Without starting the year with Catcher status, I believe Santana drops to the 7-9 rounds
Whatever luster Santana had before this year, is lost.

7. Abreu and Encarnacion are first rounders.
Cruz, fat with a new contract, falls to the third or fourth round.

8. Skills over position. And we don't draft next year for this year's results.
Altuve is having a career year. I don't trust Gordon to be a long term hitter. I see a possible Chone Figgins in him.
Of these three, Hamilton has the most going for him in the second round.

9. I see Matt Harvey being taken in the seventh or eighth rounds for early drafts. Then moving up as hype begins. If he has a good Spring training, I can see him being taken in the third or fourth rounds for Main Events.

10. Trout, Tulo, Stanton, Goldschmidt, McCutchen.
Others in the first.....
Cabrera
Abreu
Encarnacion
Kershaw
Then, it'll be different in each draft with fellows like Adam Jones, Michael Brantley, Carlos Gonzalez, Jacoby Ellsbury, George Springer, Billy Hamilton, Yasiel Puig, Freddy Freeman, Hanley Ramirez, and Carlos Gomez.

Gone, as first round thoughts are Evan Longoria, David Wright, Robinson Cano, Chris Davis, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Adrian Beltre, and, of course, Joey Votto.

[headhunters]

dan- i think you have me looking forward to pre-mature draft when YOU draft votto- because the rest of will be too ashamed.

[Bronx Yankees]

Dan - Interesting questions and answers. Makes me want to start drafting tonight! I am curious about your answer to number 8. While Dee Gordon is having a strong year, and deserves to go reasonably high next year, I share your skepticism that he will play up to his likely draft spot next year. I've also been very impressed by Billy Hamilton, but am curious to why you sound somewhat down on Jose Altuve. I think he's been great. (Really wish I had him on a team or two or eight.) Guy hits for a very solid if not high average, steals bases like nobody's business (with a better success rate than Hamilton), and should score a ton of runs next year at the top of an improving Astros lineup. The guy even pops a few HR. I'm trying to decide if Altuve is my top-ranked 2B going into next year (I think he is). Cano looks like he will continue to hit for a high BA but with fewer HR, R and probably RBI. Pedroia currently does not have enough speed or power to go in the first five rounds (at least) in my opinion. Kipnis has declined, instead of improving, compared to last year. Unless I'm forgetting someone, the only other contender may be Kinsler, although I see a decline from this year as more likely than maintaining or improving on this year's stats (more a gut feeling than anything else). How would you (and others) rate 2B going into next year? I think it may be one of the most interesting positions to rank next year.

Mike

P.S. The only reason Tulo is doing so well is that this is the first year in recent memory that I have him on zero teams. If I draft him next year, he's sure to be DL-bound before the end of April. Does his relatively healthy season in 2014 increase or decrease the odds he'll be healthy next year?

[DOUGHBOYS]

I think Altuve may be near the top of a lot of lists next year. We are a reactive lot for the most part. We see Altuve stealing a base or two every day, getting hits on a regular basis and just having a terrific year.
Magical, really.
Most of us will react in a way that fools ourselves into thinking that next year will be a continuation of this year.
Altuve is pooping pixie dust this year. He can do no wrong. It's nothing against Altuve. He earns everything he gets. And he is having a year for the ages.
A career year.
Career years are never followed with like numbers. If they were, they wouldn't be called career years.
I'll be in the minority though and Altuve will be drafted very high in every draft.

A career year clouds our thinking.
Mike, you said Altuve even pops a few home runs. He has two. Almost every regular playing guy in baseball has that many or more homers. Matt Adams has three stolen bases. These are 'side stats'. We can't really praise Altuve for hitting two homers, can we?
Altuve, at best is a three category player. This year, Altuve is at his best.

[Edwards Kings]

Altuve is pooping pixie dust this year.

So THAT is what Tinkerbell is doing when she bends at the waist!



Maybe a new fantasy dictionary definition:

Tinkerbell - Pooping pixied dust. Can do no wrong. Career year.

[Bronx Yankees]

I think Altuve may be near the top of a lot of lists next year. We are a reactive lot for the most part. We see Altuve stealing a base or two every day, getting hits on a regular basis and just having a terrific year.
Magical, really.
Most of us will react in a way that fools ourselves into thinking that next year will be a continuation of this year.
Altuve is pooping pixie dust this year. He can do no wrong. It's nothing against Altuve. He earns everything he gets. And he is having a year for the ages.
A career year.
Career years are never followed with like numbers. If they were, they wouldn't be called career years.
I'll be in the minority though and Altuve will be drafted very high in every draft.

A career year clouds our thinking.
Mike, you said Altuve even pops a few home runs. He has two. Almost every regular playing guy in baseball has that many or more homers. Matt Adams has three stolen bases. These are 'side stats'. We can't really praise Altuve for hitting two homers, can we?
Altuve, at best is a three category player. This year, Altuve is at his best.

Dan - You are right about Altuve's 2 HR and him being a three-category player. For some reason I thought he had popped a few more HR but never checked before posting. I think Altuve will give an owner a plus-BA (albeit unlikely to be as high next year as this year), plus-R (which may become plus-plus if the Astros' offense improves) and plus-plus SBs. He's gone from being a strong base stealer to a great base stealer. It seems like he runs on almost every realistic opportunity and has a great success rate. Maybe he isn't second-round material, but I'd take him over Dee Gordon in a heartbeat and probably over Billy Hamilton as well. I suppose a lot depends on team composition, but I think even with a modest decline in BA and SB next year, he's moved to at or near the top of 2B. Folks may disagree, but that's what keeps this game so interesting.

Mike

[Edwards Kings]

"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."

George Orwell
Animal Farm
1945

Altuve is "only" a three category player, but one of those categories is "more equal" than the others unless you just ditch it. We typically need around 160 SB to get 12.0 or so points in the category, which makes it the toughest category to get, even tougher than saves or wins (every team has at least one closer and five starters...not every team has a 20+ SB guy).

Excelling in that scarce category and at an infield position makes his three categories weight a bit more in my mind.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I understand both your points of view, Mike and Wayne.
Heck, I agree with just about everything said.
Altuve is marvelous this year. There is no disputing that.
As far as SB's being more important than other categories, I cannot agree.
It is spoken like a guy who is terribly short in stolen bases this year

There are many ways to attack stolen bases. Hamilton, Gordon, and Altuve along with a few other base stealers will give plus points.
A lineup in which there are four 25 base thieves and six players who will get double digitish figures also works well.
Some think that speed can be faab'ed easier than other categories.

Stolen bases are the offense's equivalent to Saves on the pitching side.
A category that has to be in the back of drafters minds.
Like Saves, the category can be tanked or forgotten, but the drafter feels the same remorse in looking at a squad with no speed, the way he looks at a roster with no Closers.

Last year, several owners thought that they would take care of this years power numbers by drafting Chris Davis high.
The problem being was that LAST YEAR was Chris Davis' pixie dust year.
I understand that the same thing will happen with Jose Altuve in the coming year. He will be chosen high.
And we'll hear things like 'speed never slumps' (Right now, BJ Upton and Brad Miller are flipping the bird to that old adage) and the like.
But, I believe in gravity more than speed.
And next year, I believe that Altuve's pixie dust runs short and he'll return to Earth's and his statistics gravitational pull.