Where Did The Top 20 Teams Draft From?

[Greg Ambrosius]

We'll look at all of the data at season's end, but I thought it was interesting to look at the Top 20 teams with one week to go in the NFBC Main Event to see where they drafted from. Interesting, the teams range everywhere from 1 to 15, literally. Here are some interesting facts:

** We have never had a Main Event champion draft from the No. 1 spot. In fact, it's probably the least successful spot in the 11-year history of the NFBC. Yet, Greg & Dale Morgan lead the NFBC Main Event right now and they drafted from the No. 1 spot. Interestingly, they are the only team who drafted from the No. 1 spot in the Top 20 overall.

** The most successful spot in the NFBC Main Event among the Top 20 teams is NUMBER 15!! Yup, four of the Top 20 teams drafted from the last spot in the draft order. Pretty amazing.

** No. 6 was next in line with 3 teams in the Top 20.

** 13 of the 15 spots are represented in the Top 20 overall. Only spots 4 and 9 weren't represented. It's so even that 10 teams drafted in the Top 8 spots and 10 teams drafted in the bottom 7 spots. Very balanced results for 15-team leagues.

** Here is where the current Top 20 teams drafted from in the NFBC Main Event:

No. 1 - 1 team
No. 2 - 1 team
No. 3 - 1 team
No. 4 - 0 teams
No. 5 - 2 teams
No. 6 - 3 teams
No. 7 - 1 team
No. 8 - 1 team
No. 9 - 0 teams
No. 10 - 2 teams
No. 11 - 1 team
No. 12 - 1 team
No. 13 - 1 team
No. 14 - 1 team
No. 15 - 4 teams

A lot can change in the next week, but it's interesting to see these early results. Good job everyone.

[Bronx Yankees]

This is really interesting. Wonder if those four really successful teams approached the 15/16 picks in the same way or not. I'm guessing at least some of the great results from the 6th hole were Kershaw picks. I'm a little surprised that only one of the top 20 came from the 1st slot given that Trout has had a great year and most took him first. I think this illustrates that you can win regardless of the draft order (although I'd still like the first pick in at least one NFBC league next year).

Mike

[Greg Ambrosius]

This is really interesting. Wonder if those four really successful teams approached the 15/16 picks in the same way or not. I'm guessing at least some of the great results from the 6th hole were Kershaw picks. I'm a little surprised that only one of the top 20 came from the 1st slot given that Trout has had a great year and most took him first. I think this illustrates that you can win regardless of the draft order (although I'd still like the first pick in at least one NFBC league next year).

Mike

The team who leads the Main Event and had the No. 1 pick took Cabrera. No team in the Top 20 started with Trout.

4 teams in the Top 20 started with Kershaw, from the 3rd spot, 5th spot, 5th spot and 10th spot.

[Greg Ambrosius]

The NFBC Primetime has an equally balanced Top 20 through Sunday's games, but the top team drafted from the other end of the draft order, picking 10th. Here's a look at some facts and the number of teams drafting from each spot:

** Ten of the 12 spots have at least one team in the Top 20, with Nos. 3 and 7 having no teams in the Top 20.

** The two ends have the most teams in the Top 20: 4 from the No. 1 spot and 3 from the No. 12 spot.

** All four teams from the No. 1 spot selected Mike Trout. Andrew McCutchen was the first pick of three Top 20 teams.

Here's a look at the number of Primetime teams in the Top 20:

No. 1 spot - 4 teams
No. 2 - 2 teams
No. 3 - 0 teams
No. 4 - 2 spots
No. 5 - 1 spot
No. 6 - 1 spot
No. 7 - 0 teams
No. 8 - 1 spot
No. 9 - 2 spots
No. 10 - 2 spots
No. 11 - 2 spots
No. 12 - 3 spots

That's 10 spots in the top half of the and 10 spots in the bottom half of the draft. Pretty even all around. Good job all.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Our NFBC Main Event overall champion drafted from the No. 1 spot, but the spot that had the most teams in the Top 20 overall was No. 15 with four teams. Few owners wanted to draft at the bottom of the draft order this year, but No. 15 had the most Top 20 teams. Next in line was No. 6, with three Top 20 finishers.

It's interesting to note that 11 of the 15 draft spots were represented in the Top 20, with only Nos. 2, 4, 9 and 12 not producing Top 20 teams. Picks 1 through 7 produced 10 teams in the Top 20, as did picks 8 through 15. There really wasn't a dominant spot to draft in these 15-team leagues.

Here's the final numbers for the 2014 NFBC Main Event:

Draft Spot - # of Top 20 Teams
No. 1 - 2 teams
No. 2 - 0 teams
No. 3 - 1 team
No. 4 - 0 teams
No. 5 - 2 teams
No. 6 - 3 teams
No. 7 - 1 team
No. 8 - 1 team
No. 9 - 0 teams
No. 10 - 2 teams
No. 11 - 1 team
No. 12 - 0 teams
No. 13 - 1 team
No. 14 - 1 team
No. 15 - 4 teams

[JohnP]

I guess I am missing the fascination with the draft slot analysis. With 30 rounds and 450 players being taken, the chances that a specific draft slot effects the order of finish are minimal in my opinion. What would be more interesting would be some sort of player analysis - what players were most common on the winning squads? Take a Kershaw for example....he could have been picked at slot 3 or slot 15 or any in between. 13 of the top 20 winning squads could all have Kershaw and could have all taken him at different draft slots. Does that make the draft slot significant or the player? I guess I think that after the first couple of picks....it is all jumbled up the rest of the way anyways. Maybe more relevant in football....smaller player pool, less rounds, etc. But for sure it can be said....can win from any spot. Those top 20 teams....much more has to do with their player drafting ability than their draft slot selection. Put a Schroeder or a Jupinka or a Morgan (you get the idea, not trying to slight anyone) in a 15 team draft against 14 random owners and give them the last available draft slot....they still win. Maybe 2015 will be different? Hard to imagine not starting out with Trout this year at the 1 slot. Maybe a clearer number 1 than ever before and if he continues to progress......seems like it would be some sort of advantage to have the 1 pick. Good debate question - is Trout the "surest" 1 pick ever?

[BK METS]

I guess I am missing the fascination with the draft slot analysis. With 30 rounds and 450 players being taken, the chances that a specific draft slot effects the order of finish are minimal in my opinion. What would be more interesting would be some sort of player analysis - what players were most common on the winning squads? Take a Kershaw for example....he could have been picked at slot 3 or slot 15 or any in between. 13 of the top 20 winning squads could all have Kershaw and could have all taken him at different draft slots. Does that make the draft slot significant or the player? I guess I think that after the first couple of picks....it is all jumbled up the rest of the way anyways. Maybe more relevant in football....smaller player pool, less rounds, etc. But for sure it can be said....can win from any spot. Those top 20 teams....much more has to do with their player drafting ability than their draft slot selection. Put a Schroeder or a Jupinka or a Morgan (you get the idea, not trying to slight anyone) in a 15 team draft against 14 random owners and give them the last available draft slot....they still win. Maybe 2015 will be different? Hard to imagine not starting out with Trout this year at the 1 slot. Maybe a clearer number 1 than ever before and if he continues to progress......seems like it would be some sort of advantage to have the 1 pick. Good debate question - is Trout the "surest" 1 pick ever?

In the "Congrats to main event champs" thread, Greg lists every league, their draft slot, and their first pick. Check it out. Seems a little more interesting than just the draft position analysis.

As far as Trout, yes I believe he is the surest #1 pick ever, though Barry Bonds was a pretty sure fire #1 for a few years.

[JohnP]

I guess I am missing the fascination with the draft slot analysis. With 30 rounds and 450 players being taken, the chances that a specific draft slot effects the order of finish are minimal in my opinion. What would be more interesting would be some sort of player analysis - what players were most common on the winning squads? Take a Kershaw for example....he could have been picked at slot 3 or slot 15 or any in between. 13 of the top 20 winning squads could all have Kershaw and could have all taken him at different draft slots. Does that make the draft slot significant or the player? I guess I think that after the first couple of picks....it is all jumbled up the rest of the way anyways. Maybe more relevant in football....smaller player pool, less rounds, etc. But for sure it can be said....can win from any spot. Those top 20 teams....much more has to do with their player drafting ability than their draft slot selection. Put a Schroeder or a Jupinka or a Morgan (you get the idea, not trying to slight anyone) in a 15 team draft against 14 random owners and give them the last available draft slot....they still win. Maybe 2015 will be different? Hard to imagine not starting out with Trout this year at the 1 slot. Maybe a clearer number 1 than ever before and if he continues to progress......seems like it would be some sort of advantage to have the 1 pick. Good debate question - is Trout the "surest" 1 pick ever?

In the "Congrats to main event champs" thread, Greg lists every league, their draft slot, and their first pick. Check it out. Seems a little more interesting than just the draft position analysis.

As far as Trout, yes I believe he is the surest #1 pick ever, though Barry Bonds was a pretty sure fire #1 for a few years.

Interesting. Didn't see that earlier. Wow - so many winners with first round busts.