Common Players On Winning Teams

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 5:46 am

My goal in the near future is to look at the 24 league champions (22 NFBC main event and 2 Ultimate Draft Leagues) and come up with a list of common players on those championship teams. Today I had a little time and looked at the rosters of the Top 20 overall teams to compare rosters. This is a little less meaningful because some leagues had two and even three teams in the Top 20, but it's a good starting point for a Thursday!

It's interesting to note that Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez weren't found on any of our Top 20 teams. Surprisingly, Ryan Howard was on only one Top 20 team. Ervin Santana was on more Top 20 teams (3) than Johan Santana (1). The more common players didn't come from the first two rounds, they came from the middle rounds.

Anyway, this should be fun to discuss. Here's a look at the most common players found on the Top 20 overall teams and where their ADP was in the 2006 NFBC draft:

5 teams -- Jason Bay (ADP of 9.08)

5 teams -- Alfonso Soriano (ADP of 23.04)

5 teams -- Mariano Rivera (48.68)

5 teams -- Justin Morneau (139.2)

5 teams -- Mike Cameron (207.68)

5 teams -- Eric Byrnes (376.84)

5 teams -- Russell Martin (not drafted)

5 teams -- Cole Hamels (not drafted)

4 teams -- Brett Myers (103.12)

4 teams -- Brandon Webb (108.4)

4 teams -- Jorge Posada (156.48)

4 teams -- Chris Young (168.8)

Appearing on three teams each were Carl Crawford, Frank Thomas, Mike Mussina, Huston Street and Trevor Hoffman.

Any thoughts? Good or bad data? More to come.

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 6:17 am

Greg,

Pretty surprising data in that I would expect to see people who got huge value from a lower draft position. I wasn't surprised on who was on the list but who wasn't.

I am pretty surprised not to see:

Thome

Reyes

Beltran

Howard

Hanley Ramirez

Maybe Rolen

I can probably think of others but those come to mind first

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 6:38 am

Maybe it isn't the first few rounds that leads to a championship season???

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:08 am

The most interesting name to me is Hamels, Greg it is correct to say that he is the most highly priced FAAB pickup in the nfbc right?

Maybe ole Chest will save 700 bucks for Phillip Hughes in 07?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:22 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

The most interesting name to me is Hamels, Greg it is correct to say that he is the most highly priced FAAB pickup in the nfbc right?

Maybe ole Chest will save 700 bucks for Phillip Hughes in 07? Agreed, that was very interesting and yes I believe he went for more on average than any other free agent in our three years of the NFBC. While Hamels underwhelmed compared to the projections after his May 12 callup, he still won nine games, struck out 145 and finished with a 4.08 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Anytime you can get 145 Ks after Draft Day, it has to help your fantasy team, right?

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 8:03 am

I would be interested to see who did better or worse thatn Hamels finishing numbers. What I mean is: who was smart enough to avoid his blow ups, yet reap the value of the Ks and the 9 wins... So who got a much better whip/era and near 9 wins/145ks out of him. Those are the people I tip my hat to!

Spy

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 8:07 am

Maybe based on projections he under-performed, but we were more than pleased with our $400 FAAB investment in Cole. If you take out a start against the Cubbies (in which he had a cut on his finger, that was affecting his changeup), Hamels had a 2.08 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 5 wins, and 64 K's in his last 10 starts. This was at a time when league titles were being decided and overall pushes were being made, so I for one am not surprised to see Hamels on some Yoo-hoo drinking rosters.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 8:09 am

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

Greg,

Pretty surprising data in that I would expect to see people who got huge value from a lower draft position. I wasn't surprised on who was on the list but who wasn't.

I am pretty surprised not to see:

Thome

Reyes

Beltran

Howard

Hanley Ramirez

Maybe Rolen

I can probably think of others but those come to mind first Here's the data on your players above:

Thome -- 3 teams

Reyes -- 2 teams

Beltran -- 3 teams

Howard -- 1 team

Hanley Ramirez -- 2 teams

Maybe Rolen -- 1 team

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 8:15 am

Also appearing on three Top 20 teams were:

Ryan Shealy

Jeremy Bonderman

Josh Beckett

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 10:39 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

Maybe it isn't the first few rounds that leads to a championship season???

Greg, so here is a question - how many people with Derek Lee were in the top 20?

Chris

[ October 12, 2006, 04:51 PM: Message edited by: Spyhunter ]

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 11:02 am

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

quote:Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

Maybe it isn't the first few rounds that leads to a championship season???

Greg, so here is a question - how many people with Derek Lee were in the top 20?

Chris [/QUOTE]I don't know how many teams drafted him from the Top 20 and cut him later, but one team (Serenity Now) still had him on their 30-man roster at season's end. So it's possible the answer is one.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 6:33 pm

What interests me about his data is not which players helped teams win but which types of players were drated by teams smart enough to win. Myers is one who comes to mind because though he wasn't particularly excellent (and beat on his spouse) he looked like a guy who could be drafted a little later and give you top tier effort. Bonderman falls into the same category. It's not so much that these guys were huge contributors as much as they demonstrate good decisions by good owners and that's who wins.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Fri Oct 13, 2006 12:20 am

As I was looking at the list, I was thinking "...I had that guy targeted as a possible fourth outfielder in the same class as..." From the message boards, most of us appear to have our lists of guys we would pick if others in the same "class" were not available.

I wonder on the Cameron/Byrnes/Morneau picks if these guys were targeted by there owners or were they the best left available in their draft "class"? I guess this makes this a skill (targeted) or luck (I was really going after P. Wilson, but that damn Edwards Kings got him so I had to settle for Byrnes).

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Fri Oct 13, 2006 1:16 am

King,

By no means did we target Byrnes. As the draft was unfolding we were weak in the outfield so towards the end of the draft we started grabbing a bunch of outfielders. Michaels, C. Everett, Langerhanns, Mackowiak, Cuddyer & Byrnes. Actually Cuddyer and Byrnes were picks 29 & 30. We were excited they were there, and we knew we got value at those picks, but by no means did we expect to get the production we got. We actually got Byrnes one week early when, Davannon was real hot and he was riding the pine, but then we picked him back up the very next week.

viper · Post by **viper** » Fri Oct 13, 2006 2:05 am

Some players are targeted but if that player is considered a "sleeper" (if there can actually be such a thing anymore), I would guess that those teams who targeted specific players actually took them earlier than other teams because they feared they would be grabbed by another team who just needed a random player at that position.

After the first 10 rounds (choose your own estimate as to when this happens), most draft choices are based on open needs. If you don't have a 2B/SS/MI yet, you will take the guy you think is the best left. Each team decides how they want to handle catchers so they are drafted randomly throughout the 30 rounds. Some teams wait on SPs and others on closers.

What I am gerenally interested in concern how winning teams set their foundations. Not necessarily the actual player but their techniques. Do they draft power or speed? Do the draft hitters or pitchers? Do they try and balance those first 10 picks or do they lean a certain way. What type of SPs do they draft? Do they draft scarce positions or purely best available?

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Fri Oct 13, 2006 2:42 am

Viper,

From our standpoint, it is flexibility. Be prepared to go in what ever direction the draft leads you. 3 years, 3 totally different drafts. 2004, lots of hitting, 8 out of the first 10 picks were hitters. 2005, lots of pitching, 3 out of top 4 picks were pitchers. 2006, more balanced but pitcher in round 1. Three years, three totally different drafts, yet three succesful seasons.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Fri Oct 13, 2006 3:52 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

As I was looking at the list, I was thinking "...I had that guy targeted as a possible fourth outfielder in the same class as..." From the message boards, most of us appear to have our lists of guys we would pick if others in the same "class" were not available.

I wonder on the Cameron/Byrnes/Morneau picks if these guys were targeted by there owners or were they the best left available in their draft "class"? I guess this makes this a skill (targeted) or luck (I was really going after P. Wilson, but that damn Edwards Kings got him so I had to settle for Byrnes). Thanks, Joe. We do go around about this topic on the MB, but we always seem to come back to you have to be good and a bit lucky (i.e. getting solid production out of 29th and 30th round picks). You can't seem to have one with out the other and succeed in this league. But I guess I am stating the obvious, as people who are accountants by trade will do.

I kind of hang on to that lucky part to get me through another winter of "what ifs".

I too have used three different strategies (unsuccessfully) in three years. While I tried to be flexible, I did try to set the course for the team make-up based on relative draft position and projected player availability.

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Fri Oct 13, 2006 4:15 am

You need to be flexible, but I do much mock drafting in preparation, so I have a good idea where people will be and who I can have where. For instance, Jeter was my 3rd round pick 34th overall. I knew he wasn't likely to be there, but knew it was possible and grabbed him when he was. I targeted Morneau in the 10 th round and got him there, knowing there was maybe a 75% likelyhood he would still be there then. I try to address scarcities also. getting my rp's when I need too and catchers before all that's left are the non producers. I considered 3b a shortage last year also. I won my league and finished 31 overall for what that's worth.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Fri Oct 13, 2006 6:01 am

Finishing first in your league and in the top 10% overall is a great season by any standard. Congratulations!

Do you still think that 3B was a thin position in '06? Of all of the guys who played at least 20 games at 3B this year, 15 had 80 or more Runs, 21 had 20 or more HR, 18 had 80 or more RBI, and 15 (with more than 400 AB) had a .280 BA or above. Hell, even 10 had 10 or more SB!

viper · Post by **viper** » Fri Oct 13, 2006 6:05 am

Third base may have turned out not to be all that thin but I also felt it was thin going in.

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Fri Oct 13, 2006 6:50 am

It wasn't as thin as I expected either. neither was catcher. Several people at each position either came out of nowhere or proved themselves like never before. Crede and Lowell come to mind as well as McCann and several other rookie catchers. Going into 2006 though I thought these positions would be weak and didn't want to take a chance on Crede or Lowell and to be honest I never had heard of McCann.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Fri Oct 13, 2006 8:54 am

Catchers really took me by surprise. I targeted Barrett (9th) and Estrada (17th) and was satisfied most of the year. 2007 will be fun trying to project which youngsters (McCann, Martin) will repeat, which oldster has anything left (Pudge, LoDuca, Posada) and who will be king of the catchers (Mauer, Martinez).

I had third base a little deeper than most going in (Coops and I discussed this in March), but that perceived depth didn't keep me from having my CM filled out by the Seventh round (Teixeira, A. Ramirez, and Glaus). Right answer, wrong strategy. I guess that is one reason I missed the boat so much in the middle (Lugo, K. Greene, J. Castillo, and T. Walker).

Live and learn.