Over/Under for Lugo SB: Your best guess?

The Lollygaggers · Post by **The Lollygaggers** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 8:33 am

Boston has earned a reputation as a low-SB Moneyball-style team. The numbers seem to justify this reputation: The Red Sox were last in the majors in SB last year and were in the bottom three in 2005. Team SB doesn’t tell the whole story, though, so I decided to do a little more digging. I compared the before-and-after SB numbers for the five players (Damon, Renteria, Loretta, Crisp, and Gonzalez) who have been full-timers in Boston and elsewhere over the last two years. It’s an admittedly small sample, but the numbers are still interesting. Four of the players (Damon, Renteria, Loretta, and Gonzalez) ran much less in Boston, while one player (Crisp) ran more.

The aggregate statistics are listed below. For this comparison, I’m using the stolen base opportunity (SBO) calculation, which divides stolen base attempts by times on first base.

In Boston: 64 SB attempts in 764 times on 1B = 8% SBO

Before/After Boston: 99 SB attempts in 762 times on 1B = 13% SBO

In this sample, players attempted 55% more SB before/after Boston. (“In Boston” includes: 2005 Damon, 2005 Renteria, 2006 Loretta, 2006 Gonzalez, 2006 Crisp. “Before/After Boston” includes: 2006 Damon, 2006 Renteria, 2005 Loretta, 2005 Gonzalez, 2005 Crisp.)

So, getting to Julio Lugo and the subject of this thread. I think it’s safe to predict that Lugo’s SB rate will go down in Boston, and the analysis above indicates that it could go down dramatically. Complicating matters is the fact that Lugo is extremely inconsistent on the basepaths. Everyone remembers his 39 SB season in 2005, but his second highest total is only 24 SB, and he has stolen as few as 12 bases in 2001 & 2003 (before he was traded to SB-happy Tampa).

Given Boston’s miserly SB philosophy and Lugo’s inconsistent history, I’m leaning towards a conservative SB projection. My over/under? 18 SB. I’m interested to hear other opinions, though. Can anyone make a case that it's safe to project 25 SB for Lugo in Boston?

[ December 08, 2006, 02:35 PM: Message edited by: The Lollygaggers ]

NoBallsNoBabies · Post by **NoBallsNoBabies** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 8:40 am

Hey Eric!

I am in agreement with you on Lugo. I projected 17 SB's due to the decreased SBO that he will without a doubt face in Boston. I think his power numbers may increase a bit but I'm thinking a 15HR/17SB season is a pretty safe bet.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 10:45 am

Under a dozen. Book it

The Lollygaggers · Post by **The Lollygaggers** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 11:03 am

What’s happening, Brent?

Yeah, I’m getting the feeling that most projection services – relying heavily on 3-year history – are going to overestimate Lugo’s SB totals. With that said, I am curious if anyone thinks Lugo really is a reasonable bet for 25 SB.

Liquidhippo · Post by **Liquidhippo** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 2:37 pm

I imagine that Theo believes in the 75% rule for stolen bases. So for Lugo to get steal opps, he'll have to be successful over 75% of the time. My guess is that he can't succeed at that clip and he could hit an all time low this year in SB's.

So I'm with Gekko on this one, under 12. I don't know Crisp's success rate but I imagine its pretty high now, which is why he steals more often with the Red Sox. Early on with the Indians, Crisp had the speed but had extreme difficulty 'reading' pitchers and getting a decent jump. He got picked off alot. So the Indians stopped sending him unless Wakefield was on the mound, or a Piazza-type was behind the plate. But I think he's got it down now.

The Lollygaggers · Post by **The Lollygaggers** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 5:50 pm

Originally posted by Liquidhippo:

I imagine that Theo believes in the 75% rule for stolen bases. So for Lugo to get steal opps, he'll have to be successful over 75% of the time. My guess is that he can't succeed at that clip and he could hit an all time low this year in SB's.

So I'm with Gekko on this one, under 12. I don't know Crisp's success rate but I imagine its pretty high now, which is why he steals more often with the Red Sox. Early on with the Indians, Crisp had the speed but had extreme difficulty 'reading' pitchers and getting a decent jump. He got picked off alot. So the Indians stopped sending him unless Wakefield was on the mound, or a Piazza-type was behind the plate. But I think he's got it down now. That makes sense, Liquidhippo. Crisp was only caught 4 times last year for an 85% success rate. Lugo's success rate was 73% last year, 78% the year before (his breakout year), and 73% for his career.

Mr Dalrae · Post by **Mr Dalrae** » Sun Dec 10, 2006 1:25 am

Boston is a graveyard for stolen bases,so I also will have to go with the under Eric.I put Lugo in the 14-16 stolen base range.