No, it wasn’t that. Maybe it was because my wife was with me? I would say yes (and certainly did to her face), but she is with me pretty much 365, so it had to be something else. Oh yes, I know. It was getting the #1 Pick! That is what brought the sunshine!
As I told to several at the Main, I wish I had the cajones to go against conventional wisdom to be “the guy” who did not pick Trout, but end the end, I chose brains over balls.
I had no expectation of getting the #1 pick though I did KDS one then two then the middle. I just did not expect it to happen. So I spent most of the winter planning to draft out of the middle. Drafting on either end changes things. Not necessarily what types of players I want, but the frequency and scope of reaches is intensified. But there is no news there. Last year I picked from #15 and made many errors, including not recognizing the need to draft pitching early enough to mitigate the fact that within the 28 players that would be picked before the next turn, pitching would be the most vulnerable to runs that could decimate your plans. So, I made sure I addressed that by changing my strategy just a little. As long as I thought it would take me to establish my pitching, I would draft at least one pitcher at each turn. This lasted all the way to the 16/17 turn.
And this draft was unique to me. With all of the injuries and under-producing players from 2014, there seemed to me to be a pool of players in the mid- and mid-late rounds that had dropped significantly from the prior year whom we were all (or mostly) high on and that also were rather homogenous. Not special, just deep and wide. This made players with unique features stand out a bit more and this lead to me to take the players I thought would be unique enough to help my team. What was unique to me? Later round picks who, when playing given some may be injury prone, hit in the meat of their respective orders or up in the order with speed.
No real change my overall strategy. Not really a “Stars n Scrubs” but still a little more bottom up than that and totally focused on points. Batting points I am breaking down in three groups because each is separate and distinct from each other. Stolen bases are a class by themselves. An add-on as far as I am concerned and barely related to the other categories. Batting average is another class because batting average doesn’t care if you are a power hitter, a Judy, or one of the many that fall in between. Finally, something I call “Total Points” is the third and of course is made up of homeruns, runs batting in, and runs scored. I add up the three to judge the relative value in this combined category. Some few of the guys who get large amounts of runs scored do not hit many homeruns or drive in many runs either, but that class is small. Within a relatively narrow range, skewed for where the at bats occur in the lineup, if a guy is going to hit so many homeruns, he will have so many RBI’s and runs scored.
For total points, however, it allows you to separate the sheep from the goats. Assume your bats by position generate on average 60 runs, 15 homeruns, and 60 runs batting in to go with a very conservative 5 stolen bases. One thing is almost certainly going to happen. You will be last in your league in points in those categories. Over the course of the year you would have generated 840 R, 210 HR, 840 RBI and about 70 SB. Honestly, you really have to work pretty hard (or quit) to do worse than that. But there are a lot of players out there that are plus or minus just a few ticks off those marks. They will not be hard to find. The opposite of scarce.
What does that give me? If I plan on half or so of my players getting those points, I have cut my population of primary concern and premium in half as well. For total points, I can concentrate on getting skills in six or seven players. Once I draft or buy those guys, the rest of the population becomes ducks on the pond. Or better yet, like prom dates. Readily available and easier to replace. Of course, the Super Six will have to produce which we all know is no guarantee. But at this stage where we are all essentially tied for first, every players potential is in front of them and absent any disappointment.
What does the Super Six need to do? I changed this a bit from last year. I focused more on RBI’s early because I think there are good pools of runs available later (i.e. it will be easier to get someone who will get 70 runs than it will be to get 65 RBI’s) later in the draft. I also mapped out two strategies based on whether or not one player would be available to me at the 2/3 turn. Not the smartest move (focusing on the one player), but teamed with Trout, I would go ahead and try to get the vaunted 75/75 out of my first three offensive players.
Also, perhaps incorrectly, I think the MI players available in the middle and late rounds have the potential to help my team, so I will not reach for the position early (though I knew I would reach if I found myself in trouble for speed). I planned to be and was basically blind to position because there are plenty the “average” guys out there. I recognize for every guy who has no real chance to get more than 10 homeruns, I will need a guy who has a chance to get 20. This is doable but increasingly tough. There were 82 guys who hit at least 18 homeruns in 2013 and only 67 last year.
I will no longer avoid the Judy’s. If I have to get one in order to secure SB (something I have not done successfully in several years), I at least want to get guys hitting from the lead-off or #2 spot in the line-up to help with runs scored as well.
At the end of the day, I want somewhere at least (preferably north of) a 0.270 BA (remember when it was 0.280?), 1,000 runs, 250 HR, 975 RBI’s, and 155 SB. No big mystery here as those numbers would put you at or just above 80% of available batting points in the Main overall last year.
For pitching in the Main Event, I really liked what I did last year and feel the staff ended up doing pretty well outside of saves. One team really dominated my league and five of us were within 4.5 points of each other. One of my closers crapped out and the third closer I drafted ended up not being such a bargain. I also ended up mid-pack in K’s. Going one pitcher at every turn I hope I can develop a solid staff. The conventional wisdom is that “good” pitching is deep. Maybe so, but having to target team marks like 100 Wins, 85 Saves, 1,400 K’s, a 3.300 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP means that pitchers who are only good can actually hurt you.
You know…Todd Zola said picking Trout was not necessarily so easy because given history odds are the #1 pick will not be the #1 fantasy player at the end of the year. True, but it is not about picking the #1 fantasy player as much as it is picking someone who is going to be a safe anchor. We all (I think) know that. And I agree with Todd…but you know players can have bad years, good years, great years, and EPIC years…Trout is the only player I can think of who has the best chance at an epic year. Maybe even the first 40/40 since the steroid era. Not likely, but it could happen….
As it turned out, the player I wanted at the 2/3 turn was there. I wasn’t sure it was going to happen as the list of guys who I would have been happy with was shortening up as Puig, Springer, Harper, Braun, and Ellsbury all dropped in the run up to me. I still had Rendon, Frazier, Upton, Dickerson and Adrian Gonzalez available, but I took “Clarice” Starling Marte. The guy came into last year took a fastball off his helmet, dealt with a personal loss, and still managed to produce great numbers. Coming into his prime, we could see even more. My only knock on Marte is he will probably bat fifth in that lineup behind Walker. Would love to see him up higher.
For my first pitcher, I wanted Strasburg, Price, Sale, or Bumgarner. The latter two were still available and I went with Sale. Yes I know he will one day have TJS (who hasn’t or won’t?), and he may not have thirty starts, but he had 208 K’s last year in 26 starts, so I have high expectations. His ERA may go all the way up to 2.50 and his WHIP may crack 1.00. The horror...the horror...
At 4/5 I tandemed Brian Dozier with Cole Hamels. Hamels I hope will be traded to a team that has a chance to improve his win potential. Otherwise I am looking for another mid-2’s ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and 200 more K’s. Dozier, while a bit of a BA drag (unless he maintains his improvement against RHers and regains a little former glory against LHers), but he will be a source of runs, HR and SB. With Marte and Trout, I have a real shot at 75+HR and 75+ SB from the combo.
I continue the trend at 6/7 and make my first “strategic” (code for possible stupid) move. Victor Martinez was there and I needed a corner. The age, the soreness already in his surgically-repaired knee…I just could not pull the trigger. I instead went for Trumbo who should hit clean-up in the desert. Trumbo is certainly not going to help my BA and he will lose AB as Arizona tries to find AB for Tomas, but he is younger, hits the ball hard in a hitters park and 2013 was not so long ago. For pitching, I went for Julio Teheran. There were some good pitchers out there (Carrasco, Wood, Wacha, Gio) but Julio was the highest ranked available to me. OK...so it was a bit of a Homey pick...
What I expected did happen as we had our first true closer run. I took the gamble that someone I would want would be left 28 picks later.
I was right. I like Glen Perkins and at the very least he will strike out more than a batter per inning and can get 35+ saves on what will be a mediocre team at best. Maybe because I felt I was being discriminatory to the older players, maybe because I felt he has slipped too far, but in any regard my next pick was Matt Holliday. Yes, he is 35 and sometime he will decline. I hope it is not this year. Hitting third in that line-up he should rack up great runs and RBI’s with decent power and BA. Hell, he may even steal five or so bases. He still hits the ball hard and if a few more are line drives, he could actually help BA.
I am now sitting at 10/11 and another six closers have gone. I wanted another one and I am high on Addison Reed with his 10.0 K/9 arm. Of course, he is altering his deliver and he has only appeared in about two spring training games, so I know I have made a risky call. Eric Hosmer. He is ancient, right? Been around forever, right? Only 25 and conventional wisdom has it that he is what he is (or has done). He hits the ball hard, just on the ground too much. Even a little more loft and we can party like it is 2011 again.
12/13 I begin to ask the age old question “Can you win an NFBC Main with three Brewer pitchers and two Toronto catchers?” I take Mike Fiers who I expect to be good this year and if he can get closer to 200 IP maybe even a real contributor. Maybe he finally figured it out at 30. Who knows. And Russell Martin, who now is back in a hitters park and probably batting second. Likey, likey.
At 14/15 I went with Pedro Alvarez and Jake Odorizzi. Alvarez will take his iron glove to first base this year. Remember when Encarnacion made the switch? All that stands in his way is Corey Hart (well, and maybe ability…we will see). Funny thing. I “know” Odorizzi, where he plays, what he has done. But I have never seen him pitch, which makes me nervous. Shandler is high on him, which is good enough for me, so...
Shut the hell up!
At 16/17 I went with Shelby Miller and Asdrubal Cabrera. Now I have two Braves pitchers. YeeeHawww! Miller is 24 and learned a new pitch last year. Is it unreasonable to ask for six times September? Cabrera is gonna give you a few runs, a few HR, a few RBI, and a few SB but the last two years his BA sucks. Only 29 with a good profile (GB/LD/FB, Hctx, contact, etc.), I just do not know why he doesn’t hit for better average. Supposedly will hit third with Jennings and Jaso ahead and Longoria and Loney behind. Likely not to last if they drop Jennings down in the order.
18/19 is the first combo where I do not pick a pitcher. I grabbed Bourn because after my Trout/Marte/Dozier start, there is not much by way of speed. Should help in runs as well hitting atop the Indians line-up. I also grabbed Vogt. Won’t be a catcher to start but will be in 10-12 games. May be a late developing catcher with slightly better than league average power.
At 20/21 I grabbed Teixeira and Garza. Garza is my second Brewer pitcher and gets no love. Only 31 and had a good second half around the oblique strain. Big Tex can’t beat the shift, but he still hit better than 20 HR last year and plans to bat 4th on those days he can jump start his nuts.
22/23 is my second Toronto catcher (Dioner Navarro) who can hold the fort until Vogt or maybe be a streaming option if he can get traded and Jimmy Nelson, my third Brewer pitcher who may have more upside than Fiers, if that tells you anything.
24/25 Bud Norris with 15 Wins, a 3.65 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP last year…ok, I will take a flyer on a repeat and Nori Aoki who will not help much outside of a little BA and SB, but can help in runs if he supplants Pagan at the top of the Giant line-up.
26/27 Whoops! Need a MI or two so I took Freddy Galvis (hitting second in Philly and has enough pop for 15 HR if he gets anywhere near 500 AB) and Joe Panik (hitting second in SF and may have better than average average and speed). Neither will win it for me but both are better than some other MI already taken.
28/29 I take Clevelands next starting shortstop Fancisco Lindor and Chris Johnson whose only saving grace is he plays third base.
And Mr. Irrelevant – MELVIN UPTON! Ok, so now I have a few Braves, but Melvin is actually quite interesting. Any improvement over last year and his average can fly all the way up to .240 and I believe he can be a 20/20 guy or maybe 15/15 by the time he plays. Try that for the 450th player taken! OK...just kidding...I got him for the pleasure of eventually cutting him...something the Braves won't do!
Right now my team looks like this to me….
At the end of the year, it may look like this…
But then again, maybe not!
