What Does The First Round Of 2016 Look Like?

[Greg Ambrosius]

Is it too early to start looking ahead to 2016? Naaaaaah, of course not!!

In 2015, Mike Trout went first overall in almost every NFBC draft. It started in November and carried through our April drafts. And of course Trout has rewarded those owners who believed in his talents. Will this year be the same or will others go No. 1 overall in 2016?

I'm not going to list the order, but I think I've found 15 players who will find the first round at some point. Let's see if anyone can rank the first round for 2016 and add some more players. Who's going No. 1 in 2016, and who is going in the first round this year? Let's see your predictions.

Here's 15 I like for 2016:

Mike Trout
Paul Goldschmidt
Bryce Harper
Andrew McCutchen
Josh Donaldson
Clayton Kershaw
Giancarlo Stanton
Manny Machado
Anthony Rizzo
Nolan Arenado
Jose Bautista
Jose Altuve
Carlos Correa
Edwin Encarncion
Miguel Cabrera

Am I missing another Starting Pitcher in the first round? Has Miggy lost his first round luster? Is Stanton too injury prone for the first round? Inquiring minds want to know. Let's start the day out with some talk for 2016. Thanks all.

[Bronx Yankees]

Greg - I like your list. You certainly covered the easy ones and I bet most of them will have first round ADPs next year. In fact, I have a tough time taking issue with any of your picks. I could see a second SP going in the first round, but if folks view most of the top tier of SPs as being roughly equivalent, odds are they will wait until the second or third rounds to grab their first SP. Although I tend to shy away from him for health reasons, I can see Tulo going in the late first round. A chance to play all season in Toronto with Donaldson, Bautista and Encarnacion hitting around him easily could lead to first round numbers from a SS even with only 120-130 games played. I could see Starling Marte sneaking into the late first round. I see a lot of upside there. Also, I am not sure Jose Abreu is out of the running for first round value, although a better supporting cast certainly would be helpful. Others may buy into Votto's season as a reason to bump him back to the first round. Should be interesting. I'm already intrigued by the challenge of figuring out which guys should move up into the second and third rounds and which former very-high picks need to get bumped down and by how much.

Mike

[ToddZ]

Guessing Encarnacion and Bautista are taken in the 1st a lot but have 2nd round ADP's.

The dark-horse is A.J. Pollock.

The guy I'm most curious about is Dee Gordon -- I'll either have all of him or none of him, I can't figure out where this crowd will rank him.

[DOUGHBOYS]

It should be a very interesting draft for the Pre-Mature E-Draftulation League. That draft will start the final weekend of this season's regular season schedule.
I'll post results of the first 5 or 6 rounds on the Boards.
As of now, we have one opening for that league.
I'll take the ninth caller

It is a 30 round league with $125 entry fee. We run the draft through e-mails. There is no time limit, but we expect each drafter to be courteous and draft in a timely manner. All participants are NFBC veterans.
It is a particularly challenging league. Not only are we drafting players before publications tell us where to pick them, a lot of things happen between the end of the draft in Oct/Nov and the first week of April.
For the 15 owners, it makes the first week of FAAB look like 15 Ambrosius's finding a secret passage to an unsecured Corona factory
In our standings now, there are 10 teams within 20 points of the lead and at least six teams have held first place during the last couple of months.
A tough league to be sure.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I don't want to hijack this thread, so I have some other thoughts for next year...
Where does Evan Gattis get drafted WITHOUT catcher positioning?
Carlos Santana without 3b? Does he drop like Mauer?
Who is the first Nationals offensive player to get drafted after Harper? Wow, did they stink.
Buxton looked overmatched. So did Billy Hamilton. Where do they go?
Puig? Cespedes?
Does Brian Dozier get some first round love?

[Donacion]

Kris Byant has the look of a 40 homer player. Really looks polished. Probably too early but Boegarts is having a great season and I think there is more power. Anybody buying Cespedes looks comfortable in a Mets uniform. Brantley has had a very good year.

[DOUGHBOYS]

One game at a defensive position could mean the difference of five rounds or more for one player.
Kyle Schwarber has 19 games at catcher.

[Edwards Kings]

Where does Evan Gattis get drafted WITHOUT catcher positioning?

Heir apparent to David Ortiz. Balm to those who need power later in the top 10 rounds.

Carlos Santana without 3b? Does he drop like Mauer?

With three dozen or more cornermen showing more power, Santana drops to nearer the 20th round unless someone bites on:
a) the stolen bases
b) drafts up for the "value"

Who is the first Nationals offensive player to get drafted after Harper? Wow, did they stink.

Ian "Rebound" Desmond.

Buxton looked overmatched.

Ask me at the end of spring. They hype will not die however.

So did Billy Hamilton.

The SB will keep him a hot property. Top five rounds.

Puig?

No love until spring and the outfield situation in LA clarifies.

Cespedes?

Top 10 OFer so second round....?

Does Brian Dozier get some first round love?

Maybe. Top five MI, so middle second?

[Gekko]

i'd like to see what george springer could do with a full season of at bats. in his 637 career AB, he's been injured, but still put up 34hr and stole 20 bases. my early pick of the year to go 30/30

[EA Sports]

One game at a defensive position could mean the difference of five rounds or more for one player.
Kyle Schwarber has 19 games at catcher.

Schwarber in at catcher. There ya have it

[Yah Mule]

2014 Nelson Cruz ADP - 151.29

2015 Nelson Cruz ADP - 67.18

2016 Nelson Cruz ADP - ?

[Edwards Kings]

2014 Nelson Cruz ADP - 151.29

2015 Nelson Cruz ADP - 67.18

2016 Nelson Cruz ADP - ?

First round, but after Trout and Harper. Interesting to see how Cespedes, Cruz, Bautista, and McCutchen fall after the top two. Would you consider JD Martinez in this group?

[Edwards Kings]

i'd like to see what george springer could do with a full season of at bats. in his 637 career AB, he's been injured, but still put up 34hr and stole 20 bases. my early pick of the year to go 30/30

So you think he can hit at least .260 again?

[NorCalAtlFan]

wayne, ian desmond won't be a gnational.

renowned steroid user ryan braun was having a nice season, roughly 30/30 pace. i can see him going end of 1st IF he looks healthy in spring training

[Greg Ambrosius]

wayne, ian desmond won't be a gnational.

renowned steroid user ryan braun was having a nice season, roughly 30/30 pace. i can see him going end of 1st IF he looks healthy in spring training

Yes he was, and running more than I ever expected. However, he is scheduled for back surgery this off-season, so let's see how the reports are for him after that is done. The 'roids could be breaking down his whole body now.

[Captain Hook]

i'd like to see what george springer could do with a full season of at bats. in his 637 career AB, he's been injured, but still put up 34hr and stole 20 bases. my early pick of the year to go 30/30

In an OBP league yes - not with BA as the category - but likely a second round pick

I got some flack when I took him in the 2nd round of the TOUT mixed draft league but with a .359 OBP and double digit HR and SB he has been worth it despite the time off (thankfully they have DL slots)

[DJMDJM]

1. Josh Donaldson
2 .Mike Trout
3. Bryce Harper
4. Paul Goldschmidt
5. Nolan Aranado
6. Kris Bryant
7. Anthony Rizzo
8. Jose Altuve
9. Giancarlo Stanton
10. Carlos Correa
11. Manny Machado
12. Jose Bautista
13. Edwin Encarnacion
14. Clayton Kershaw
15. AJ Pollack

[Gekko]

Correa will go top 6 in every draft

[DOUGHBOYS]

Correa will go top 6 in every draft

Hype season beginning early this year!

[DOUGHBOYS]

1. Josh Donaldson
2 .Mike Trout
3. Bryce Harper
4. Paul Goldschmidt
5. Nolan Aranado
6. Kris Bryant
7. Anthony Rizzo
8. Jose Altuve
9. Giancarlo Stanton
10. Carlos Correa
11. Manny Machado
12. Jose Bautista
13. Edwin Encarnacion
14. Clayton Kershaw
15. AJ Pollack

This list omits McCutchen and Miggy. Not disagreeing, just an observation.

This list shows just how young baseball has gotten over the last two/three years.
It was once written that the age 27 year was the maximum year for player output. It is up to us to decide whether that statement is true or not.
The amazing thing is that NINE of these players have not even reached their 27th birthday yet!
In fact, only two players (Encarnacion, Bautista) are in their thirties.
For fantasy baseball, it's incredible. In past years, we would hold on to ARod, Griffey, Pujols, and Miggy into their 30's banking on repeatability.
Now, even if Miggy does go in a first round in 2016, age 30ish players are dwindling in that top round.

Kids getting stronger faster?
PED's on their way out?
Willingness of MLB teams to play younger players?
Younger players are cheaper?

All or some of these reasons are why we are seeing an early blossoming of these players.
It makes baseball and fantasy baseball exciting, that is for sure.
To me, Josh Donaldson is a fellow in the prime of his career.
A first round player.
A fellow who will draft Donaldson will give absolutely no thought to his age.
Incredible, in that Donaldson is the third oldest player on this list.

[NorCalAtlFan]

Correa will go top 6 in every draft

i thought you were just being gekko. counting the minors, 30-30! vroom vroom

#3 pick in pre mature is my prediction!

[Gekko]

Yup. 30/30 already at this young age. He could net 50sb if the astros turn him loose next year. Trout, harper and correa are the future of baseball

[ToddZ]

Since the ASB

Correa 14 HR, 30 R, 42 RBI, 7 SB, .284/.367/.517
Lindor 9 HR, 42 R, 40 RBI, 8 SB, .356/.393/.597

Hmmm.......

[NorCalAtlFan]

Since the ASB

Correa 14 HR, 30 R, 42 RBI, 7 SB, .284/.367/.517
Lindor 9 HR, 42 R, 40 RBI, 8 SB, .356/.393/.597

Hmmm.......

cut the bullsh*t todd. i'm not letting correa fall to you!

[ToddZ]

cut the bullsh*t todd. i'm not letting correa fall to you!

BS went out the window for me years ago...

Willing to bet the market likes Correa 2 rounds higher than me and I like Lindor 2 rounds higher than the market.