Sonny Gray

[Edwards Kings]

Help a newbie out. There seems to be a love-fest out there for Sonny Gray. Is he just one of those pitchers that will outperform his abilities every year? He is a good pitcher, no doubt, and not to be too numerish about it (since numerish is so 2010), many of his underlying metrics are quite average.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Help a newbie out. There seems to be a love-fest out there for Sonny Gray. Is he just one of those pitchers that will outperform his abilities every year. He is a good pitcher, no doubt, and not to be too numerish about it (since numerish is so 2010), many of his underlying metrics are quite average.

How can you not love a player with a weatherman's name?

[Gekko]

See "new pitch"

[Edwards Kings]

Help a newbie out. There seems to be a love-fest out there for Sonny Gray. Is he just one of those pitchers that will outperform his abilities every year. He is a good pitcher, no doubt, and not to be too numerish about it (since numerish is so 2010), many of his underlying metrics are quite average.

How can you not love a player with a weatherman's name?

Greatest weatherman in the world was Captain Sandy in Savannah. Didn't have much of a fast ball though.

[Edwards Kings]

See "new pitch"

Great. Can't wait to see it. Maybe he will miss a few more bats.

[BK METS]

Help a newbie out. There seems to be a love-fest out there for Sonny Gray. Is he just one of those pitchers that will outperform his abilities every year? He is a good pitcher, no doubt, and not to be too numerish about it (since numerish is so 2010), many of his underlying metrics are quite average.

A consistent 2.8 ERA and 1.1 WHIP with lower strikeout number. Many said the same about Jordan Zimmerman because he didnt strike out 200K per season, but strikeouts are easier to find than a top pitcher with excellent ratios. Gray and a big strikeout guy with higher ratios, together, make a solid combo, if you are able to make it happen.

This year, there is a run on starting pitchers up until around the 5th round, then it tails off. Gray is one of those guys at the end of the run.

Gray is around the same ADP as Carlos Carrasco, who will give you the strikeouts but a 3.6 ERA in 2015. Which would you rather have? Put them together and you have equal to 2 studs.

[ToddZ]

For me, with Gray, it's the innings. He's like a volume running back in football -- not the best YPC but gets so many touches stuff adds up.

Or maybe the Adam Jones of pitchers - outcomes a little better than his skills buoyed by a ton of at bats.

Not comparing Gray to Roy Halladay, but Doc was similar in that his skills weren't elite but 240 IP put him there.

[Edwards Kings]

Help a newbie out. There seems to be a love-fest out there for Sonny Gray. Is he just one of those pitchers that will outperform his abilities every year? He is a good pitcher, no doubt, and not to be too numerish about it (since numerish is so 2010), many of his underlying metrics are quite average.

A consistent 2.8 ERA and 1.1 WHIP with lower strikeout number. Many said the same about Jordan Zimmerman because he didnt strike out 200K per season, but strikeouts are easier to find than a top pitcher with excellent ratios. Gray and a big strikeout guy with higher ratios, together, make a solid combo, if you are able to make it happen.

This year, there is a run on starting pitchers up until around the 5th round, then it tails off. Gray is one of those guys at the end of the run.

Gray is around the same ADP as Carlos Carrasco, who will give you the strikeouts but a 3.6 ERA in 2015. Which would you rather have? Put them together and you have equal to 2 studs.

Great analogy, but it is not so much the lack of K's, but lack of missing bats. Zimmerman has a 67% to 71% FpK (with an average SwK) while Gray is below average FpK (with an average SwK).

Gray could be just one of those guys that outperforms his metrics, but I do not have him south of a 3.50 ERA (not that that is bad, but people are giving him more love than that) without more fairy dust. And to Todd's point, I do not see Gray getting to 200+K even with 240 IP.

[BK METS]

Help a newbie out. There seems to be a love-fest out there for Sonny Gray. Is he just one of those pitchers that will outperform his abilities every year? He is a good pitcher, no doubt, and not to be too numerish about it (since numerish is so 2010), many of his underlying metrics are quite average.

A consistent 2.8 ERA and 1.1 WHIP with lower strikeout number. Many said the same about Jordan Zimmerman because he didnt strike out 200K per season, but strikeouts are easier to find than a top pitcher with excellent ratios. Gray and a big strikeout guy with higher ratios, together, make a solid combo, if you are able to make it happen.

This year, there is a run on starting pitchers up until around the 5th round, then it tails off. Gray is one of those guys at the end of the run.

Gray is around the same ADP as Carlos Carrasco, who will give you the strikeouts but a 3.6 ERA in 2015. Which would you rather have? Put them together and you have equal to 2 studs.

Great analogy, but it is not so much the lack of K's, but lack of missing bats. Zimmerman has a 67% to 71% FpK (with an average SwK) while Gray is below average FpK (with an average SwK).

Gray could be just one of those guys that outperforms his metrics, but I do not have him south of a 3.50 ERA (not that that is bad, but people are giving him more love than that) without more fairy dust. And to Todd's point, I do not see Gray getting to 200+K even with 240 IP.

Not sure how you compute a 3.50 ERA for a guy that has averaged 2.88 over the last 3 years. One year is a fluke. He is consistently pitching far into games. 22 quality starts. 2 shutouts. Pitchers park. And if you have watched him pitch, he isn't hit hard at all. He has a ton of movement on the ball. He deserves his billing. I respect your opinion. Maybe you are right. But the love shown for him isnt blind. He is a solid low end #1 or #2 starter any fantasy team. People fall in love with Ks. Sometimes hitting bats is a good thing.

[ToddZ]

Gray's not getting 240 IP - that wasn't the point. Simply saying he gets more whiffs than others with a pedestrian average since he throws 20-40 more frames than the others.

Here's where I'm hanging my Gray hat. This is the percentage of well hit balls over the past three seasons for all pitchers with at least 300 IP

Well hit BIP /( AB + SF )

1 S. Gray 10.7%
2 C. Kershaw 10.7%
3 M. Harvey 10.9%
4 J. deGrom 10.9%
5 C. Sale 11.1%
6 J. Arrieta 11.3%
7 F. Liriano 11.4%
8 J. Cueto 11.6%
9 C. Morton 12.0%
10 T. Ross 12.1%
11 D. Keuchel 12.1%
12 G. Gonzalez 12.1%
13 G. Cole 12.1%
14 J. Lester 12.3%
15 F. Hernandez 12.3%
16 S. Strasburg 12.4%
17 G. Richards 12.4%
18 M. Bumgarner 12.6%
19 C. Hamels 12.7%
20 M. Scherzer 12.8%
21 Z. Greinke 12.8%
22 C. Carrasco 12.9%
23 D. Duffy 13.0%
24 U. Jimenez 13.1%
25 J. Kelly 13.1%

[ToddZ]

Not sure how you compute a 3.50 ERA for a guy that has averaged 2.88 over the last 3 years. One year is a fluke. He is consistently pitching far into games. 22 quality starts. 2 shutouts. Pitchers park. And if you have watched him pitch, he isn't hit hard at all. He has a ton of movement on the ball. He deserves his billing. I respect your opinion. Maybe you are right. But the love shown for him isnt blind. He is a solid low end #1 or #2 starter any fantasy team. People fall in love with Ks. Sometimes hitting bats is a good thing.

Expecting a 3.50 is perfectly reasonable based on the various expected ERA calculations (FIP, xFIP, SIERA)

We all just have to decide if Gray is doing something to sport an ERA below what's expected or if he's due for some regression.

[Cocktails and Dreams]

He would require a bit of a discount from typical high dollar draft points for me to take him.

[fwicker]

he may want to induce less grounder in order to avoid utilizing the porous As infield

[DOUGHBOYS]

he's due for some regression.

Not picking on you, Todd.

When I played baseball and then softball afterwards, there was one line that made me shudder when yelled by helpful teammates or coaches, when at bat.
"C'mon Kenyon, YOU'RE DUE!!!"
In a nutshell, that line told everybody within shouting distance that I have sucked lately.
It also reminded me, that I had sucked lately.
Not comforting at all to hear.

Gray's stats have been close to the same for two and 1/2 years.
Why is he due for regression?
Couldn't he be just as due for progression?
He'll pitch in the same ball park, have the same crappy infield behind him, and pitch against the same teams.
Why are we so prone to predict change?

Naturally, we have a bias against pitchers who do not rely on the strike out.
It is one of our categories.
Time tested reliable Closer Mark Melancon takes a back seat to flame throwing Ken Giles.
Carlos Carrasco, preferred over Sonny Gray.
Nobody seems to want to admit this bias.
THEY SHOULD!
It's a category!
So, hell yes, I want Giles and Carrasco over Melancon and Gray and not even sugarcoat it.
Randy Johnson, once finding the plate, was always a choice over Greg Maddux. Not a slam on Maddux at all.
Strike outs and Wins are the desert to a meal of E.R.A. and WHIP.
And dammit, we as drafters want our cake and eat it too!

I won't tell Gray he is due for regression.
That still hurts from my own baseball and softball playing days.
BUT, I will tell him that he can't play on my fantasy team unless he strikes more people out.
He's probably not due for that

[ToddZ]

1. Regression, as I talk about it, is the act of things out of a player's control regressing to the mean. Regression goes in both directions (regression can also be "progression"). Unfortunately, regression has taken on the connotation "play worse." In a pure statistical sense, the skills of a player and whether he's a candidate for regression are mutually independent.

2. There is no timetable for regression - can take weeks, months or even years.

3. The better we get at data collection, the better able we are to delineate the luck from the skill.

4. There are two areas where Gray sports metrics that on the surface suggest enjoying some luck - BABIP and HR/FB.

His BABIP is even more wacky since as an extreme ground ball pitcher, he "should" carry a BABIP above league average.

His HR/FB has been a tad lucky, aided by O.Co. but there's still some apparent luck.

One of the major improvements in data collection from when DIPS theory first came to light was the speed of a batted ball. Classification isn't perfect since it's still subjective but it's better than not incorporating it. This has gone a long way in helping to differentiate skill from luck.

As I alluded to above - our job is to decide if Gray's BABIP and HR/FB is lucky or is he doing something to keep them low. To say he's done it 2 1/2 years is not tangible evidence.

As I showed earlier, Gray has given up THE LEAST hard contact in the league for the past three seasons. Hard contact results in hits and homers -- so the REAL question is whether Gray is responsible for this. The answer isn't as obvious as some may want -- but there's some evidence that the pitcher has some level of control.

So I'll regress Gray's BABIP and HR/FB - but not all the way to league average. I'm closer to a 3.00 ERA than a 3.50 ERA - but I'm not going to just average what he's done without accounting for some of the low BABIP and HR/FB to be fortuitous.

[DOUGHBOYS]

There is an unkown that I embrace with fantasy baseball. It is something that will never change. Something that can never be predicted.
And that is year-to-year statistics.
We think we can.
We have so many metrics, visuals, and statistics. All leading us to draft one player over another.
The year-to-year barrier is the great equalizer.
There are some who have taken Bryce Harper highly every year since his rookie year.
If sticking with him, they were rewarded.
BUT, they went through three years of ho-hum before being rewarded.

'Due' is a tough word.
It has no deadline. Not even a starting point.
Harper was due, but he was due a long time. Now he is not.
Desmond Jennings is still due.
The year-to-year basis of our game, still makes Desmond Jennings a play for some.
His history, makes him NOT a play for some.

Some players, like Mike Trout, were never due.
Ian Stewart will die, due.
No matter the regressions, progressions, or 'dueness' of a player, the timeframe makes them almost moot.
We all do the best we can to forecast what will happen during the coming year.
THAT is the game.
We'll base our decisions on visuals, statistics, metrics, or even what Joe Blow down the street says.
There is no magic metric or statistic that will really help us a lot.
If there were, our game would not be the same.

[vandyguy82]

I'll be drafting sonny Gray because he went to Vanderbilt

[Edwards Kings]

I'll be drafting sonny Gray because he went to Vanderbilt

Gotcha! Also Price, Alvarez, Minor, and Flaherty too?

[Edwards Kings]

I get it about Gray.

Good age, good stuff.

I just think about 1/2 dozen pitchers have the same general profile that I could pick up much later/cheaper.

[EWeaver]

1. Regression, as I talk about it, is the act of things out of a player's control regressing to the mean. Regression goes in both directions (regression can also be "progression"). Unfortunately, regression has taken on the connotation "play worse." In a pure statistical sense, the skills of a player and whether he's a candidate for regression are mutually independent.

2. There is no timetable for regression - can take weeks, months or even years.

3. The better we get at data collection, the better able we are to delineate the luck from the skill.

4. There are two areas where Gray sports metrics that on the surface suggest enjoying some luck - BABIP and HR/FB.

His BABIP is even more wacky since as an extreme ground ball pitcher, he "should" carry a BABIP above league average.

His HR/FB has been a tad lucky, aided by O.Co. but there's still some apparent luck.

One of the major improvements in data collection from when DIPS theory first came to light was the speed of a batted ball. Classification isn't perfect since it's still subjective but it's better than not incorporating it. This has gone a long way in helping to differentiate skill from luck.

As I alluded to above - our job is to decide if Gray's BABIP and HR/FB is lucky or is he doing something to keep them low. To say he's done it 2 1/2 years is not tangible evidence.

As I showed earlier, Gray has given up THE LEAST hard contact in the league for the past three seasons. Hard contact results in hits and homers -- so the REAL question is whether Gray is responsible for this. The answer isn't as obvious as some may want -- but there's some evidence that the pitcher has some level of control.

So I'll regress Gray's BABIP and HR/FB - but not all the way to league average. I'm closer to a 3.00 ERA than a 3.50 ERA - but I'm not going to just average what he's done without accounting for some of the low BABIP and HR/FB to be fortuitous.

mr. Zola: your analysis of players and parsing of terms is so top notch, it's extraordinarily refreshing. in a genre where there is little room for equivocation, gray area, and empowering recipients of disseminated information, i simply have to salute you. thank you for the fantastic analysis, deep understanding, and exceptional presentation.

[Edwards Kings]

No matter the regressions, progressions, or 'dueness' of a player, the timeframe makes them almost moot.
We all do the best we can to forecast what will happen during the coming year.
THAT is the game.

It is the "...forecast what will happen..." where I think statistics (i.e. regression, progression) come in. Not absolutely predictive (like Todd says ... it could be a couple of years in the making). However it is a tool to me that at least improves the chance that our forecasting can be more accurate (at least over gut feel or just looking at historicals).

[BK METS]

As I alluded to above - our job is to decide if Gray's BABIP and HR/FB is lucky or is he doing something to keep them low. To say he's done it 2 1/2 years is not tangible evidence.

Evidence enough to draft him in the 5th round, in my opinion. If he had done it in 4 or 5 straight years, he would be 2nd-3rd rounder.

[ToddZ]

Let's go -- another 18 pages and we enter Joe Blanton territory!

[KJ Duke]

Let's go -- another 18 pages and we enter Joe Blanton territory!

You had me at Blanton. Ok, well I guess that was the end of it anyway. He's a decent fantasy #2 ... certainly worthy of 18 pages like the Blantonator so I'll jump in ...

Sonny looks capable of improving his k/9, so a low 3 era looks reasonable on my era model, all things considered. He gets deep enough to win games but they don't have a threatening lineup, the bullpen looks dicey and they'll probably be competing for last place in the West. So, he's an OK pick in round 5 if I can't find anyone else I like ... 17 pages to go.

Who's next?

[DOUGHBOYS]

Nothing to do with the 'To Gray or not to Gray' debate....
I saw slow motion footage of Gray's arm throwing a slider...incredible, incredible torque.
Just a donation to the Sonny Gray wannabe of Joe Blanton's pages foundation....