Where's The VALUE In These Guys?

[Greg Ambrosius]

Tom and I are going to open our STATS Fantasy Advantage show tonight looking at this year's first round players and we will match them up with this year's Top 15 player performances. As expected, fewer than half of the first round picks are in the Top 15 performances. That's not unusual, but we'll analyze why it's happening again.

We'll also look at some of the "value" picks from this year's drafts. Most of those players came up in the first 6-7 rounds and looked like bargains at the time of those drafts. Unfortunately, I'm not seeing the values for these guys just yet. Maybe time will tell, but right now these "value" guys aren't providing fantasy owners any value at all. They include:

Andrew McCutchen, 14th Overall: Cutch is hitting .248-6-13 with 1 stolen base and 22 runs in 31 games. McCutchen going late in the first round seemed like good value for a player who was a Top 6 pick the year before. So far, not so much.

Justin Upton, 45th Overall: .220-2-9-1-14 in 32 games. Batting 2nd ahead of Miguel Cabrera seemed like the perfect lineup spot for a young player who was a 2nd round pick the year before. But he's now been dropped in the order after another slow start.

Carlos Gomez, 50th Overall: .204-0-5-3-6. Gomez was a 1st round pick last year who had a disastrous season with Milwaukee and Houston last year. He seemed like a "value" pick on Draft Day, but the fact that he's hit 5th most of this season in a loaded lineup and has scored just 6 runs in 29 games is troubling at best.

Felix Hernandez, 53rd Overall: He was the last of the top tier starting pitchers (18th SP) and seemed like value after being a late first round pick the year before. His early numbers of 3 wins, a 2.27 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP aren't bad, but the fact that he's struck out only 33 batters with 20 walks in 43.2 IP is worriesome. Is the worst to come?

Troy Tulowitzki, 54th Overall: This former first round pick is hitting .178-6-16-0 with only 11 runs in 33 games.

Sonny Gray, 67th Overall: He was the top SP on the second tier of this position, but he's had a disastrous start: 3-4, 6.00 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 34 Ks in 18 BBs in 39 IP. Gray says he is healthy, but something doesn't look right.

Adam Wainwright, 70th Overall: In 7 starts he is 2-3 with a 6.30 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP with only 23 Ks and 12 BBs in 40 IP. He said on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio that he would make fantasy owners pay for passing on him, but now the only ones paying are the owners who drafted him.

Anthony Rendon, 73rd Overall: The reason pitchers are intentionally walking Bryce Harper is because nobody is getting on base in front of him. Rendon is hitting 2nd and has posted the following numbers in 33 games: .218-2-5-3 with 22 runs.

Yasiel Puig, 77th Overall: He's had 1 walk and 25 strikeouts during his recent swoon, which has seen his numbers drop to .235-3-12-3 with 13 runs in 32 games. What is his ceiling now?

Prince Fielder, 82nd Overall: Why did the Comeback Player of the Year drop so far in this year's draft? Here's why: .188-2-18-0-8 in 34 games.

Albert Pujols, 88th Overall: His batting average continues to drop and is now at .183-6-18 with 12 runs in 32 games. How low can it go?

Jacoby Ellsbury, 110th Overall: With fantasy owners looking for speed later in the draft, Ellsbury had some "value" later in the draft. He's come through with 9 stolen bases in 27 games but injuries are cropping up again. He's hit .270-1-9 with 10 runs in 27 games.

I know how some folks hate the "value" picks once they see the ADPs, but all of these guys did appear to have some value to fantasy owners. Unfortunately, there's been justification for their lower draft rankings at that time. Will they turn things around? We'll have to wait and see, but so far these players are dragging down the interests of fantasy owners who took the chance on each of them.

[DOUGHBOYS]

You're killing me.

[Tom Kessenich]

I have no complaints with Felix. Drafted him on my Tout team as my No. 3 starter behind Price and Archer and just ahead of Matz. Now he's more like my No. 2b behind Matz with Archer being up and down and Price generally being awful. Strikeouts aren't there for Felix but ERA and WHIP are good. Considering where I got him I have no complaints.

[Bjs2025]

I have McCutchen, Upton and Pujols on my auction championship team so no wonder I am in the bottom third of the league so far. I have faith in all of them though and nothing alarming seems wrong with any of them. They and my team should be fine. I've also got David Price, he of he 6+ ERA who's lost 2 mph on his fastball but thus far has the highest K rate of his career...makes since.

[NorCalAtlFan]

upton is upton. he'll catch fire for 6 weeks, normalizing his stats, and then be meh the rest of the way.

tulo, wow! painful to watch

rendon, i fell for it. haha, jokes on me. he should thank the baseball gods that dusty is his manager and allows him to go 1-5 every game with no run production

this is why we play the game, right?

[Bronx Yankees]

Tom and I are going to open our STATS Fantasy Advantage show tonight looking at this year's first round players and we will match them up with this year's Top 15 player performances. As expected, fewer than half of the first round picks are in the Top 15 performances. That's not unusual, but we'll analyze why it's happening again.

We'll also look at some of the "value" picks from this year's drafts. Most of those players came up in the first 6-7 rounds and looked like bargains at the time of those drafts. Unfortunately, I'm not seeing the values for these guys just yet. Maybe time will tell, but right now these "value" guys aren't providing fantasy owners any value at all. They include:

Andrew McCutchen, 14th Overall: Cutch is hitting .248-6-13 with 1 stolen base and 22 runs in 31 games. McCutchen going late in the first round seemed like good value for a player who was a Top 6 pick the year before. So far, not so much.

Justin Upton, 45th Overall: .220-2-9-1-14 in 32 games. Batting 2nd ahead of Miguel Cabrera seemed like the perfect lineup spot for a young player who was a 2nd round pick the year before. But he's now been dropped in the order after another slow start.

Carlos Gomez, 50th Overall: .204-0-5-3-6. Gomez was a 1st round pick last year who had a disastrous season with Milwaukee and Houston last year. He seemed like a "value" pick on Draft Day, but the fact that he's hit 5th most of this season in a loaded lineup and has scored just 6 runs in 29 games is troubling at best.

Felix Hernandez, 53rd Overall: He was the last of the top tier starting pitchers (18th SP) and seemed like value after being a late first round pick the year before. His early numbers of 3 wins, a 2.27 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP aren't bad, but the fact that he's struck out only 33 batters with 20 walks in 43.2 IP is worriesome. Is the worst to come?

Troy Tulowitzki, 54th Overall: This former first round pick is hitting .178-6-16-0 with only 11 runs in 33 games.

Sonny Gray, 67th Overall: He was the top SP on the second tier of this position, but he's had a disastrous start: 3-4, 6.00 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 34 Ks in 18 BBs in 39 IP. Gray says he is healthy, but something doesn't look right.

Adam Wainwright, 70th Overall: In 7 starts he is 2-3 with a 6.30 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP with only 23 Ks and 12 BBs in 40 IP. He said on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio that he would make fantasy owners pay for passing on him, but now the only ones paying are the owners who drafted him.

Anthony Rendon, 73rd Overall: The reason pitchers are intentionally walking Bryce Harper is because nobody is getting on base in front of him. Rendon is hitting 2nd and has posted the following numbers in 33 games: .218-2-5-3 with 22 runs.

Yasiel Puig, 77th Overall: He's had 1 walk and 25 strikeouts during his recent swoon, which has seen his numbers drop to .235-3-12-3 with 13 runs in 32 games. What is his ceiling now?

Prince Fielder, 82nd Overall: Why did the Comeback Player of the Year drop so far in this year's draft? Here's why: .188-2-18-0-8 in 34 games.

Albert Pujols, 88th Overall: His batting average continues to drop and is now at .183-6-18 with 12 runs in 32 games. How low can it go?

Jacoby Ellsbury, 110th Overall: With fantasy owners looking for speed later in the draft, Ellsbury had some "value" later in the draft. He's come through with 9 stolen bases in 27 games but injuries are cropping up again. He's hit .270-1-9 with 10 runs in 27 games.

I know how some folks hate the "value" picks once they see the ADPs, but all of these guys did appear to have some value to fantasy owners. Unfortunately, there's been justification for their lower draft rankings at that time. Will they turn things around? We'll have to wait and see, but so far these players are dragging down the interests of fantasy owners who took the chance on each of them.

Seems like guys such as J.D. Martinez and Adam Jones belong on this list. I think/hope they will get or come close to recent levels by the time the season is over, but things are not looking good after the first month or so.

Mike

[KJ Duke]

Albert Pujols, 88th Overall: His batting average continues to drop and is now at .183-6-18 with 12 runs in 32 games. How low can it go?

His BABIP is 15%, so it goes up from here - a lot. At just 25% he'd be hitting .258 right now.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Yasiel Puig, 77th Overall: He's had 1 walk and 25 strikeouts during his recent swoon

Sabr hogwash. When a player goes bad and his K/BB ratio is bad, it is always used as an indicator.
K/BB ratio is more of an indicator of a hitters (lack of) patience, rather than production.

Here are some players that also have no problem in striking out a lot, walking few.

JT Realmuto- 15 strike outs 1 walk
.302/12/2/11/1

Gerardo Parra- 20 strike outs 2 walks
.296/18/3/19/5

Starling Marte- 30 strike outs 4 walks
.341/19/3/14/9

Matt Kemp- 26 strike outs 3 walks
.273/15/8/24/0

[Bronx Yankees]

Yasiel Puig, 77th Overall: He's had 1 walk and 25 strikeouts during his recent swoon

Sabr hogwash. When a player goes bad and his K/BB ratio is bad, it is always used as an indicator.
K/BB ratio is more of an indicator of a hitters (lack of) patience, rather than production.

Here are some players that also have no problem in striking out a lot, walking few.

JT Realmuto- 15 strike outs 1 walk
.302/12/2/11/1

Gerardo Parra- 20 strike outs 2 walks
.296/18/3/19/5

Starling Marte- 30 strike outs 4 walks
.341/19/3/14/9

Matt Kemp- 26 strike outs 3 walks
.273/15/8/24/0

And let's not forget Trevor Story. 13 walks and 49 strikeouts. But, he's slashing .269/23/11/27/2. I have him on one of my big teams and wish I had him everywhere. He can strikeout 50 times every month of the season and I'd still be ecstatic if he repeats his power numbers too.

Mike

[KJ Duke]

Yasiel Puig, 77th Overall: He's had 1 walk and 25 strikeouts during his recent swoon

Sabr hogwash. When a player goes bad and his K/BB ratio is bad, it is always used as an indicator.
K/BB ratio is more of an indicator of a hitters (lack of) patience, rather than production.

Here are some players that also have no problem in striking out a lot, walking few.

JT Realmuto- 15 strike outs 1 walk
.302/12/2/11/1

Gerardo Parra- 20 strike outs 2 walks
.296/18/3/19/5

Starling Marte- 30 strike outs 4 walks
.341/19/3/14/9

Matt Kemp- 26 strike outs 3 walks
.273/15/8/24/0

And let's not forget Trevor Story. 13 walks and 49 strikeouts. But, he's slashing .269/23/11/27/2. I have him on one of my big teams and wish I had him everywhere. He can strikeout 50 times every month of the season and I'd still be ecstatic if he repeats his power numbers too.

Mike

And it seems like half of his non-K outs have been long flys or line drives at someone, a lot of them anyway.

[Bronx Yankees]

Yes, I've noticed that, too. I think he also has hit the wall twice at home where they just raised the fences at Coors, or he would have had even more homers. A great start. I'm not expecting it to continue at this pace, but I've seen enough to think he may put up 30+ HR for the year, which is awesome for a MI. Basically, I think all of us will take the Ks if a player is really productive when he does hit the ball. Also, if a guy is not going to steal bases or score a lot of runs, walks are not helpful.

Mike

[Tom Kessenich]

Puig is hitting .235-3-12 with a .283 OBP in 32 games. Forget about the strikeout/walk ratio. His numbers stink period. He's having a bad year and deserves to be on the list Greg posted. He hasn't been the value pick people expected him to be before the season.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Puig is hitting .235-3-12 with a .283 OBP in 32 games. Forget about the strikeout/walk ratio. His numbers stink period. He's having a bad year and deserves to be on the list Greg posted. He hasn't been the value pick people expected him to be before the season.

Inferring that the k/bb ratio is a reason for his downfall also smells.
But, you are absolutely right. He stinks.

[KJ Duke]

Puig is hitting .235-3-12 with a .283 OBP in 32 games. Forget about the strikeout/walk ratio. His numbers stink period. He's having a bad year and deserves to be on the list Greg posted. He hasn't been the value pick people expected him to be before the season.

Inferring that the k/bb ratio is a reason for his downfall also smells.

One of the things schandlerites seem to follow as religion rather than a general guideline. Humans love mental shortcuts, they don't have to think as much.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Yes, I've noticed that, too. I think he also has hit the wall twice at home where they just raised the fences at Coors, or he would have had even more homers. A great start. I'm not expecting it to continue at this pace, but I've seen enough to think he may put up 30+ HR for the year, which is awesome for a MI. Basically, I think all of us will take the Ks if a player is really productive when he does hit the ball. Also, if a guy is not going to steal bases or score a lot of runs, walks are not helpful.

Mike

SOOOOO Correct.
There is a line between sabrs and fantasy players. Fantasy players want offensive numbers. If those come laced with strike outs, even MANY strike outs, we don't care.
For a sabr, a player who goes 0-3 with three strike outs is a horrible game.
If that same player is hit by a pitch, steals a base and also scores a run, his day is considered good for the fantasy player.

We draft Chris Davis, KNOWING, he'll strike out 200 times.
RAT'S ASS!
We want the 40 homers!
What he does with his outs is his (and sabrs) business.
Not ours!

Sabrs love and adore the base on balls.
They think hitters DRAW all their walks. Just not the case.
Ask Joe Maddon.
For power hitters, base on balls only serve to take the bat out of our power hitters hands.
We want our speedsters to draw those base on balls. But pitchers like to make those fellas hit.
For us, obp is not the Holy Grail.
For us, five categories, no matter how arrived at, is the Holy Grail.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Puig is hitting .235-3-12 with a .283 OBP in 32 games. Forget about the strikeout/walk ratio. His numbers stink period. He's having a bad year and deserves to be on the list Greg posted. He hasn't been the value pick people expected him to be before the season.

Inferring that the k/bb ratio is a reason for his downfall also smells.

One of the things schandlerites seem to follow as religion rather than a general guideline. Humans love mental shortcuts, they don't have to think as much.

Couldn't agree more.

[headhunters]

what about eickoff? anything on him? spin rates" and such.

[TakestheCake]

I am not giving up on Rendon this year. Rendon is currently tied for 7th in Runs Scored and Top 50 in Sb's. He is giving elite production in 2 counting categories thus far. I think the upheaval at the leadoff position and Revere starting cold since, has cost Rendon RBI and to a lesser degree Batting Average opportunities. Even with regression in Runs Scored, the rise going forward in batting average and Rbi should generate more balanced stats.

[76erfan]

eickhoff needs a third pitch.....curve and fastball is all he used last night...he tried a change up but freeman hit it out.

needs a legit third pitch to get his mojo back

[BK METS]

what about eickoff? anything on him? spin rates" and such.

ickoff is spiralling downward, along with every one of Gekkos teams that has him "everywhere". Where is the nite nite thread when you need it? I can't find it!!! Maybe because the author has gone nite nite.

[DOUGHBOYS]

I am not giving up on Rendon this year. Rendon is currently tied for 7th in Runs Scored and Top 50 in Sb's. He is giving elite production in 2 counting categories thus far. I think the upheaval at the leadoff position and Revere starting cold since, has cost Rendon RBI and to a lesser degree Batting Average opportunities. Even with regression in Runs Scored, the rise going forward in batting average and Rbi should generate more balanced stats.

Top 50 is elite?

[Frozen Tundra]

So this year I decided to abide by the strategy: Don't draft a pitcher before the sixth round.

In league one, it worked like a charm: started with Salazar 6th round, then Carlos Martinez, Tanaka, Hammel, Quintana (plus got mcCullers and Darvish waiting). So far, so good.

In league two, I resisted until round 4. Then I found Dallas Keuchel staring at me.

I took the bait. Needless to say, I'm getting Klubbered this year. My other picks are decent (Stroh, Liriano, Zimmerman) but there is little remedy for the damage a fake CY Young can inflict into your ERA.

[Cocktails and Dreams]

Value is getting guys later than your competition got them in other leagues in an overall competition. There is no other type of worthwhile "value." Value does not exist in contained leagues from my perspective. You either have the player or you don't. There is no comparison, as nobody else has that player in the competition. I wrote a pretty lengthy discussion on this in a document I sent to Greg and Tom for a NFBC profile piece. They opted to not end up doing the piece they asked me to answer questions for, so it was an epic waste of time, but the topic of "values" is fascinating.

[Bjs2025]

Value is getting guys later than your competition got them in other leagues in an overall competition. There is no other type of worthwhile "value." Value does not exist in contained leagues from my perspective. You either have the player or you don't. There is no comparison, as nobody else has that player in the competition. I wrote a pretty lengthy discussion on this in a document I sent to Greg and Tom for a NFBC profile piece. They opted to not end up doing the piece they asked me to answer questions for, so it was an epic waste of time, but the topic of "values" is fascinating.

Prior to the season when using projections for players that are realistic (unless for some reason one wouldn't do that) assigning $ values for your league setting using said projections is a useful tool.

[Chest Rockwell]

Value is getting guys later than your competition got them in other leagues in an overall competition. There is no other type of worthwhile "value." Value does not exist in contained leagues from my perspective. You either have the player or you don't. There is no comparison, as nobody else has that player in the competition. I wrote a pretty lengthy discussion on this in a document I sent to Greg and Tom for a NFBC profile piece. They opted to not end up doing the piece they asked me to answer questions for, so it was an epic waste of time, but the topic of "values" is fascinating.

I think they should have you write an article on how to become the most miserable human being on the planet. It would be a must read...