Break? I Don't Need a Damned Break!

[DOUGHBOYS]

I've been thinking about the upcoming drafts for the 2017 season. Heck, if I had more time, I would have run an e-mail draft during this wretched, sombitchin' All-Star break.
Stupid All-Star break.
Stupid, stupid All-Star break.
For fantasy baseball folks, we are wired to study, draft, or follow box scores.

The All-Star break is the Kansas of traveling from New York to California.
The outage of internet connection when needed most.
The obscene traffic hold-ups when trying to get home from work.
The important phone call for your girl halfway into sex.
A time when my wife says, "Welcome back to our world."
Ugh.

Anyway...
I could list 15 names for the first round, but that's nothing new. Most of us can do it in our sleep.

Here's 15 players for you.

Mike Trout
Clayton Kershaw
Paul Goldschmidt
Bryce Harper
Jose Altuve
Kris Bryant
Josh Donaldson
Nolan Arenado
Anthony Rizzo
Mookie Betts
Manny Machado
Max Scherzer
Xavier Bogaerts
George Springer
Starling Marte

There it is. Big deal.
Some will disagree and say somebody else should be there.
No big deal either.
Have at it.
What IS the big deal is what is going to happen AFTER this first round and in some cases as soon as part of this first round.

For the last few years, one or two or three pitchers have been taken erlier and earlier.
A group would go in the fifth round.
Then, the fourth.
Then, the third.
Last year, they started going at the bottom of the second round.
This coming year, even earlier.
That run of pitchers will start in the lst part of the first round or early second.
Madison Bumgarner
Jake Arrieta
Stephen Strasburg
Chris Sale
Corey Kluber
Danny Salazar
Johnny Cueto
Noah Syndergaard
Jake deGrom
David Price
Carlos Carrasco
Zack Greinke
Jose Fernandez
Felix Hernandez

These pitchers are going to look more appealing to some than Blackmon, Chris Davis, Trumbo, Cano, Stanton, Cabrera. Especially with the thought of all those Ace's being gone by the time the third round rolls around.
Aces have forced their way into this area, even though they only effect four categories to an offensive players, five.

At one time, first basemen and their powerful ways ruled the first two rounds. It is the position that gets 'softer' with each year.
Most are only four category contributors with speed not on the table for most. But with these changing times, they are becoming deficient in another area.
Batting average.
This year, there is not a first baseman that has more than 10 homers and a .300 batting average.
It's true.
There are some who come close. Anthony Rizzo is hitting .299, Hosmer .299, Goldy .297, Cabrera .293
For the most part, the position has become Sluggos.
Chris Davis, Chris Carter, Mike Napoli, Albert Pujols, etc becoming three category players.

Shortstops will run throughout drafts. From top to bottom. A truly loaded position.
For those liking power, the position offers Manny Machado, Trevor Story, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Danny Espinoza, and Tulo.
Speed?
Villar, Andrus, Al Escobar, Marte.
Best of all, the five category goodness of Lindor, Nunez, Correa, and Bogaerts.
Not to mention (but I am) others like Cozart, Crawford, Aledyms Diaz, Addison Russell, Brad Miller, Tim Anderson, and Asdrubal Cabrera.
At one time, it seemed every team had a good first baseman that was draftable in high rounds.
Now, it's shortstop.
Loaded for sure.

Three positions will have us holding our nose as we pick.
DH will be without David Ortiz.
So, the best pickings will be VMart, Morales, and Prince Fielder.
A sarcastic, vroom.

Catcher will still have Buster Posey a top the list.
Just because.
Again, it's a bad lot.
If any position in baseball needs an offensive infusion, it's Catcher.

Closers are a flip of the coin.
Who stays healthy?
Who keeps their job?
Who gets lots of ops?
We do the best we can.
But none of us will know those answers.
I believe Closers will still have their runs, but if drafters are smart, it'll come later than before.

It is shaping up to be very interesting.
The All-Star break signals that it is only 75 days till draft season!

By the way, did I tell you how much I hate this break?

[Edwards Kings]

Me too. I hate the ASB (couldn't give a shit about the game). Horrible timing. For the last four weeks, my offense has averaged 303 AB with a .296 BA, 45 Runs, 12 HR, 47 RBI and 6 SB.

[Bronx Yankees]

Nice, Dan. Good to talk - if not watch - baseball. Two quick thoughts:

1. If we are going to have these never-ending All-Star breaks, an email DC draft for the following season would be a GREAT way to help fill the void. Count me in.

2. If I had to predict, I see the starting pitching run moving back a little next season from this year, where it began in earnest in the second round. I disagree that the run will start even earlier. Let's see if Kershaw is healthy in the second half. Arrieta has not looked good going into the break. Scherzer solid but arguably not having a great year. So so results for Kluber. Harvey has been a bust for fantasy purposes. Archer? There have been worthwhile early picks of SPs to be sure, but there may be more risk in going so early in pitching. Also, some of the second tier SPs - e.g., Cueto, Hamels, C Martinez - have out-performed first tier selections. I'm not saying I wouldn't take a stud SP in the second round or possibly grab two early aces if I could, but the universe of SPs that I would take in the 2nd round/early 3rd round has shrunk, at least for me, based on where things stand today.

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

Nice, Dan. Good to talk - if not watch - baseball. Two quick thoughts:

1. If we are going to have these never-ending All-Star breaks, an email DC draft for the following season would be a GREAT way to help fill the void. Count me in.

2. If I had to predict, I see the starting pitching run moving back a little next season from this year, where it began in earnest in the second round. I disagree that the run will start even earlier. Let's see if Kershaw is healthy in the second half. Arrieta has not looked good going into the break. Scherzer solid but arguably not having a great year. So so results for Kluber. Harvey has been a bust for fantasy purposes. Archer? There have been worthwhile early picks of SPs to be sure, but there may be more risk in going so early in pitching. Also, some of the second tier SPs - e.g., Cueto, Hamels, C Martinez - have out-performed first tier selections. I'm not saying I wouldn't take a stud SP in the second round or possibly grab two early aces if I could, but the universe of SPs that I would take in the 2nd round/early 3rd round has shrunk, at least for me, based on where things stand today.

Mike

Noted, Mike.
This is why I listed the pitchers that I did. The list has indeed, shrunk a bit. I believe this makes them even more of a prize.
Less means more, or in this case, less Aces makes for more interest.
I didn't include Harvey, Archer, Stroman, Matz, Richards, Sonny Gray, Gerritt Cole, or even Dallas Keuchel, even though he is throwing well lately.
Last year, we were hoping for two Aces. This coming year, an Ace and a half will be the rate.
We don't know if fellas like CMart, Bauer, Sanchez, Maeda, or Cubs hurlers can sustain their stats for the rest of this year, let alone the next.
The third round will look to have little pitching meat on the bone.
I have a feeling that many will lock up an Ace in that second round or even sooner if down the drafting totem pole in the first round.

And to answer a PM, I know the Cubs are doing their best to give fantasy drafters a capable catcher.
BUT, the jury is still out on Contreras and Kyle Schwarber will NOT have Catcher eligibility next year.

[Bronx Yankees]

Nice, Dan. Good to talk - if not watch - baseball. Two quick thoughts:

1. If we are going to have these never-ending All-Star breaks, an email DC draft for the following season would be a GREAT way to help fill the void. Count me in.

2. If I had to predict, I see the starting pitching run moving back a little next season from this year, where it began in earnest in the second round. I disagree that the run will start even earlier. Let's see if Kershaw is healthy in the second half. Arrieta has not looked good going into the break. Scherzer solid but arguably not having a great year. So so results for Kluber. Harvey has been a bust for fantasy purposes. Archer? There have been worthwhile early picks of SPs to be sure, but there may be more risk in going so early in pitching. Also, some of the second tier SPs - e.g., Cueto, Hamels, C Martinez - have out-performed first tier selections. I'm not saying I wouldn't take a stud SP in the second round or possibly grab two early aces if I could, but the universe of SPs that I would take in the 2nd round/early 3rd round has shrunk, at least for me, based on where things stand today.

Mike

Noted, Mike.
This is why I listed the pitchers that I did. The list has indeed, shrunk a bit. I believe this makes them even more of a prize.
Less means more, or in this case, less Aces makes for more interest.
I didn't include Harvey, Archer, Stroman, Matz, Richards, Sonny Gray, Gerritt Cole, or even Dallas Keuchel, even though he is throwing well lately.
Last year, we were hoping for two Aces. This coming year, an Ace and a half will be the rate.
We don't know if fellas like CMart, Bauer, Sanchez, Maeda, or Cubs hurlers can sustain their stats for the rest of this year, let alone the next.
The third round will look to have little pitching meat on the bone.
I have a feeling that many will lock up an Ace in that second round or even sooner if down the drafting totem pole in the first round.

And to answer a PM, I know the Cubs are doing their best to give fantasy drafters a capable catcher.
BUT, the jury is still out on Contreras and Kyle Schwarber will NOT have Catcher eligibility next year.

It will be interesting to see. One could posit that if there are fewer true aces, they become more valuable and perhaps should go earlier. On the other hand, if there is a large and growing number of pretty solid second tier SPs, perhaps the need to grab one or two aces is reduced. If SPs go the same or earlier next year, the temptation will be high (at least for me) to go hitting in at least the first three rounds before grabbing multiple second tier SPs.

Damn, this discussion is making me itch to draft again.

Mike

[KJ Duke]

ASB = Time to start football prep

... same reason snowmobile manufacturers starting making jet skis, gotta have a seasonal counter-balance.

[CA Dreamin]

YOU GOT IT!

[Edwards Kings]

It will be interesting to see. One could posit that if there are fewer true aces, they become more valuable and perhaps should go earlier. On the other hand, if there is a large and growing number of pretty solid second tier SPs, perhaps the need to grab one or two aces is reduced. If SPs go the same or earlier next year, the temptation will be high (at least for me) to go hitting in at least the first three rounds before grabbing multiple second tier SPs.

Damn, this discussion is making me itch to draft again.

Mike

It will be as it always has been...either could work. I lean towards the solid second tier approach. This year, I guess I have an ace (deGrom) who was the 14th pitcher taken and who I got 10th pick of the third round (I could have had any pitcher in baseball not named Kershaw in the second round), so while he had potential, I just wasn't sure he was an "ace". I had him more as a high-end #2 guy. He was risky (velocity down in spring training, during that time wife seemed perpetually about to give birth, unhappy with salary Mets gave him, Game 2 WS meltdown). I then filled my roster with #2/#3 types (Hamels 10th pick of the fifth round, Tanaka 6/8, Samardzija 10/11, Hammel 10/15, Kennedy 6/16). I got lucky as it worked for me as I am leading my league in ERA (6th overall) and second in WHIP (27th overall). K-rate is a respectable 89%.

So the solid #2/#3 can work though I admit much of the success is because, except for deGrom missing a couple of starts early), these guys have been relatively healthy.

[Edwards Kings]

A few moments on Dan's favorite topic next to the absolute value of a walk...regression. Here are the pitchers I predict will be more likely to have fewer wins in the second half based on their way high W%:

Sale, Chris (CHW)
Strasburg, Stephen (WAS)
Cueto, Johnny (SF)
Hill, Rich (OAK)
Fulmer, Michael (DET)
Kershaw, Clayton (LAD)
Arrieta, Jake (CHC)
Happ, J.A. (TOR)
Fernandez, Jose (MIA)
Tillman, Chris (BAL)
Porcello, Rick (BOS)
Zimmermann, Jordan (DET)
Salazar, Danny (CLE)
Greinke, Zack (ARI)
Wright, Steven (BOS)
Nicasio, Juan (PIT)
Tomlin, Josh (CLE)

Here are the pitchers who will probably see more wins based on their unlucky win %, though some of these will certainly be hampered by bad supporting teams:

Kennedy, Ian (KC)
Garcia, Jaime (STL)
Gray, Jon (COL)
deGrom, Jacob (NYM)
Conley, Adam (MIA)
Hellickson, Jeremy (PHI)
Eickhoff, Jerad (PHI)
Sabathia, CC (NYY)
Tanaka, Masahiro (NYY)
Leake, Mike (STL)
Estrada, Marco (TOR)
Rea, Colin (SD)
Nola, Aaron (PHI)
Teheran, Julio (ATL)

I have none on my Main event team in the first group, three in the second. Look out!

[Deadheadz]

Manny Machado
Max Scherzer
Xavier Bogaerts

Is that Xander's younger, more talented brother? Neither belong in round 1.


.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Kennedy, Ian (KC)
Garcia, Jaime (STL)
Gray, Jon (COL)
deGrom, Jacob (NYM)
Conley, Adam (MIA)
Hellickson, Jeremy (PHI)
Eickhoff, Jerad (PHI)
Sabathia, CC (NYY)
Tanaka, Masahiro (NYY)
Leake, Mike (STL)
Estrada, Marco (TOR)
Rea, Colin (SD)
Nola, Aaron (PHI)
Teheran, Julio (ATL)

And why is it never called 'progression' for fellas like these?

I'll disagree with a few of these, Wayne.

Gray is what he is. A fella that can look unhittable one start, then not look the same way for his next five.

The magic is starting to wear off for C.C. I would predict a D.L. visit over more Wins.

Estrada has a balky back. Every Win will be gold.

Hellickson is probably traded to a contender. Usually good for pitchers. But this takes a marginal pitcher away from NL East lineups.

Colin Rea has two tough teams to beat north of him. Two more good hitting teams east of him. Not many Wins to be had.

Hope none of those pitchers are your guys!

[Edwards Kings]

I have Estrada in my Auction League (reserve round pick) so I have already gotten way more than I deserve out of that decision. I am good no matter what.

I have Kennedy, deGrom and Tanaka on my Main Event team, so laissez la bon ton roulet!

[Deadheadz]

Me too. I hate the ASB (couldn't give a shit about the game). Horrible timing. For the last four weeks, my offense has averaged 303 AB with a .296 BA, 45 Runs, 12 HR, 47 RBI and 6 SB.

Good stats. Great humble brag.

My DC team has you beat tho: 288 AB with a .314 BA, 53 Runs, 47 RBI and 8 SB over past 30 days.

[Edwards Kings]

Me too. I hate the ASB (couldn't give a shit about the game). Horrible timing. For the last four weeks, my offense has averaged 303 AB with a .296 BA, 45 Runs, 12 HR, 47 RBI and 6 SB.

Good stats. Great humble brag.

My DC team has you beat tho: 288 AB with a .314 BA, 53 Runs, 47 RBI and 8 SB over past 30 days.

Nice!

Yeah...I guess that did come across as a brag, but in my mind it was "FINALLY!" In the ten weeks prior to that the average was 283 AB with a .264 BA, 38 Runs, 9 HR, 36 RBI and 5 SB, so I was grooving on the improvement. Just hated having to take a break during the streak.

[Deadheadz]

Nice!

Yeah...I guess that did come across as a brag, but in my mind it was "FINALLY!" In the ten weeks prior to that the average was 283 AB with a .264 BA, 38 Runs, 9 HR, 36 RBI and 5 SB, so I was grooving on the improvement. Just hated having to take a break during the streak.

Just bustin' yer balls. If anyone was bragging it's me.
My excuse is my DC team has maxed out roto points in hitting but has such lousy (by design) pitching it's really hard to get over 100 roto points total. If the right teams trade the right players I could maybe gain points in saves but there's really no hope for my rotation guys:

Tillman
Colon
Lewis DL
Peavy
Nicasio
Pomeranz
Sabathia
Santana
Milone

Hell, my closer Madson has 3 vulture wins which would rank him 6th among my starters.

In this league the Aces all went early so while everyone else zigged, I zagged.

.

[Rotofan18]

I think the NFBC should host baseball drafts for the second half starting the weekend before the All-star game thru Friday morning before games kick back in. Will give guys a chance to re-do a bad first half with the excitement of a new team/league. Where would Kershaw have gone?? How far would've Harper dropped, etc. My friends and I have always talked about doing a season with 2 halves. First half and second half winners in separate drafts as well a the overall winner who had the most combined points. Maybe next year for us on that one!