PreMature E-Draftulation Results

[DOUGHBOYS]

The first round of the first draft for next season is complete.
Have at it....

2017-

1. Mike Trout
2. Mookie Betts
3. Paul Goldschmidt
4. Jose Altuve
5. Kris Bryant
6. Nolan Arenado
7. Manny Machado
8 Brian Dozier
9. Clayton Kershaw
10. Josh Donaldson
11. Bryce Harper
12. Max Scherzer
13. Charlie Blackmon
14. Anthony Rizzo
15. Miguel Cabrera

Welcome Mookie Betts....Sayanara Giancarlo Stanton

Welcome Brian Dozier...Goodbye Carlos Correa

Welcome Charlie Blackmon...Adios Andrew McCutchen

The other 12 draftees were first round adp'ers from last year.

Betts was the adp #16 player last year.

Dozier, the highest leap from 71 to 8

Surprises?
Where did we go wrong?
Best picks?

Let us know......

[COZ]

Draft in the last weekend of the season? I thought we all needed a break. You guys are sick. And I love you all for that.

Interesting. To me, Dozier sticks out like a sore thumb, but what do I know? I'm dumb & have learned never to question anyone's picks when it comes to the NFBC. I operate by the 'ole adage that if you don't see any suckers in the room, then you're the sucker, which usually turns out to be me.

[headhunters]

coz- you will always have one of the great free agent pick ups in auction history in mike naploi. party on- and go pray arietta can figure it out.

[steveymer]

I love the idea of a super early draft like this. If anyone sets another up, count me in!

[rkulaski]

Miss doing this...

anxious to see next few rds too. Bring on 2017!

[COZ]

coz- you will always have one of the great free agent pick ups in auction history in mike naploi. party on- and go pray arietta can figure it out.

Thank you Michael but I still faded - bad. You & Russell made a helluva late season run in the Chicago Auction. But enough about us, let's keep the focus on the PreMature Draft Results.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Round two extolled the virtues of the 2016 shortstops. Last year, the only shortstop to have an adp in the first, second, or third rounds was Carlos Correa. Those taking Bogaerts, Seager, and Lindor as high as the fifth round were criticized.
This year, Correa, Bogaerts, Seager, and Lindor are all second round material.
Just shows that we don't know as much as we think we know

Here is the first two rounds from the PreMature League...



ROUND 1

1. Mike Trout
2. Mookie Betts
3. Paul Goldschmidt
4. Jose Altuve
5. Kris Bryant
6. Nolan Arenado
7. Manny Machado
8 Brian Dozier
9. Clayton Kershaw
10. Josh Donaldson
11. Bryce Harper
12. Max Scherzer
13. Charlie Blackmon
14. Anthony Rizzo
15. Miguel Cabrera

ROUND 2

15. Starling Marte
14. Trea Turner
13. Trevor Story
12. Corey Seager
11. Xander Bogaerts
10. Madison Bumgarner
9. Carlos Correa
8. Freddie Freeman
7. Edwin Encarnacion
6. Chris Sale
5. Corey Kluber
4. Jonathon Villar
3. Giancarlo Stanton
2. Noah Syndergaard
1. Francisco Lindor

[Edwards Kings]

Yeah...look at all those MI...and a BRAVE in the second round....and six pitchers in the top two rounds (one more than last years ADP)...Goodbye Jake...Hello Kluber (when I hear his name, I always expect Ben Stein's voice to ring out as if he were calling the role "Kluber? Kluber? Kluber?"), and Thor.

[Bronx Yankees]

Round two extolled the virtues of the 2016 shortstops. Last year, the only shortstop to have an adp in the first, second, or third rounds was Carlos Correa. Those taking Bogaerts, Seager, and Lindor as high as the fifth round were criticized.
This year, Correa, Bogaerts, Seager, and Lindor are all second round material.
Just shows that we don't know as much as we think we know

Here is the first two rounds from the PreMature League...



ROUND 1

1. Mike Trout
2. Mookie Betts
3. Paul Goldschmidt
4. Jose Altuve
5. Kris Bryant
6. Nolan Arenado
7. Manny Machado
8 Brian Dozier
9. Clayton Kershaw
10. Josh Donaldson
11. Bryce Harper
12. Max Scherzer
13. Charlie Blackmon
14. Anthony Rizzo
15. Miguel Cabrera

ROUND 2

15. Starling Marte
14. Trea Turner
13. Trevor Story
12. Corey Seager
11. Xander Bogaerts
10. Madison Bumgarner
9. Carlos Correa
8. Freddie Freeman
7. Edwin Encarnacion
6. Chris Sale
5. Corey Kluber
4. Jonathon Villar
3. Giancarlo Stanton
2. Noah Syndergaard
1. Francisco Lindor

Wow! Ten qualified MI in the first two rounds. Incredible based on recent years. All or most seem justified however. There were some guys picked in the second round that I really like a lot and was hoping would be viewed by most as later-round picks. Nope. Should've known better. Nice picking guys!

Mike

[Deadheadz]

Wow! Ten qualified MI in the first two rounds. Incredible based on recent years. All or most seem justified however. There were some guys picked in the second round that I really like a lot and was hoping would be viewed by most as later-round picks. Nope. Should've known better. Nice picking guys!

Mike

I thought the 2016 version of Carlos Correa was a precautionary tale (according to at least writer) of overhyped rookies getting drafted too high. If you're thinking guys like Trea Turner and Trevor Story should have lasted til later you may be vindicated by this time next season when we see them having good but not great stats.

This happens every year. At least one or two drafters in each draft can't wait to get the shiny new players who produced beyond expectations for all or part of the previous season. Sadly I'll admit that I've been one of those drafters. Hopefully I can be more disciplined and follow the example of wiser and more experienced fantasy managers.

.

[Big League Wood]

Wow. What a draft.

Keep posting the rounds !!!

[headhunters]

dear deadheadz- I believe the only two players in those 2 rounds that fit the bill are story and turner. I think turner is much different than a lot of sophs because he will bat 1st and he will steal. he is not billy Hamilton so far in that he has stayed healthy. given the sb environment- if he steals 60 bases and hits 10 homers he will live up to that pick. story- my pick- I completely agree. story is a heart pick on my part and his k rate could make him collapse. weird- when I picked him I said "I believe" only because I do believe in sophomore slumps- and felt that was a reach. 2 people kinda got sarcastic with me- sort of saying it wasn't a reach at all.

[DOUGHBOYS]

The onslaught of middle infielders continues into round three of the PreMature E-draftulation League. This time, second base eligible players, the target.
Five second base eligible players were taken. This makes 15 middle infielders out of the first 45 players drafted.
A total reversal from years past when the corners would dominate.
Also, the third round is when the first Catcher is selected. No, it is not Buster Posey.
This year's home run Champion and previous year's stolen base king were also drafted.
Here it is....

ROUND 3

3.1- George Springer
3.2- Gary Sanchez
3.3- Jake Arrieta
3.4- Rougned Odor
3.5- Robinson Cano
3.6- Christian Yelich
3.7- Matt Kemp
3.8- Jean Segura
3.9- Dee Gordon
3.10- Daniel Murphy
3.11- Mark Trumbo
3.12- Joey Votto
3.13- Yu Darvish
3.14- Justin Verlander
3.15- JD Martinez

ROUND 1

1. Mike Trout
2. Mookie Betts
3. Paul Goldschmidt
4. Jose Altuve
5. Kris Bryant
6. Nolan Arenado
7. Manny Machado
8 Brian Dozier
9. Clayton Kershaw
10. Josh Donaldson
11. Bryce Harper
12. Max Scherzer
13. Charlie Blackmon
14. Anthony Rizzo
15. Miguel Cabrera

ROUND 2

15. Starling Marte
14. Trea Turner
13. Trevor Story
12. Corey Seager
11. Xander Bogaerts
10. Madison Bumgarner
9. Carlos Correa
8. Freddie Freeman
7. Edwin Encarnacion
6. Chris Sale
5. Corey Kluber
4. Jonathon Villar
3. Giancarlo Stanton
2. Noah Syndergaard
1. Francisco Lindor

[Big League Wood]

What position or type players, IYO, are dropping/ falling with the push if these MIs ???

Appears OF, as I like JD there & Cespedes & Cruz are still on the board ???

[Bronx Yankees]

What position or type players, IYO, are dropping/ falling with the push if these MIs ???

Appears OF, as I like JD there & Cespedes & Cruz are still on the board ???

I'm not in this draft, but I think it's starting pitchers that are really getting faded compared to last year. Nine taken in the first three rounds so far. By the time we got to the live drafts this past season, I was seeing 8-12 starting pitchers going in the third round alone, after a number (4-6) were taken in the first two rounds. Seemed like last season there were 15-16 so-called "aces" that were taken by the early 4th round at the latest. I'm guessing we'll see another 5-7 starting pitchers go off the board in Round 4, but maybe not. Fascinating to see these results come in. Just makes me want to start drafting again.

Mike

[Frozen Tundra]

The first round of the first draft for next season is complete.
Have at it....

2017-

1. Mike Trout
2. Mookie Betts
3. Paul Goldschmidt
4. Jose Altuve
5. Kris Bryant
6. Nolan Arenado
7. Manny Machado
8 Brian Dozier
9. Clayton Kershaw
10. Josh Donaldson
11. Bryce Harper
12. Max Scherzer
13. Charlie Blackmon
14. Anthony Rizzo
15. Miguel Cabrera

Welcome Mookie Betts....Sayanara Giancarlo Stanton

Welcome Brian Dozier...Goodbye Carlos Correa

Welcome Charlie Blackmon...Adios Andrew McCutchen

The other 12 draftees were first round adp'ers from last year.

Betts was the adp #16 player last year.

Dozier, the highest leap from 71 to 8

Surprises?
Where did we go wrong?
Best picks?

Let us know......

Mookie. Depends on who Boston tasks with filling Papi's shoes. Under current roster minus Papi, I will draft Mookie 1st round but not before Goldy Machado Altuve Arrenado.

Dozier. Yes he was a great surprise and won many leagues this year but there is no chance in hell he gets drafted before CK, Donaldson, or Rizzo.

[DOUGHBOYS]

What position or type players, IYO, are dropping/ falling with the push if these MIs ???

Appears OF, as I like JD there & Cespedes & Cruz are still on the board ???

Mike is right. It is the pitchers that are suffering. Late in the season, I wrote that pitchers would rise in drafts.
I was wrong.
Speaking from my perspective and not for the other drafters, pitching pales compared to last year. We had more strike outs than ever this year. But the credit cannot be given to starting pitchers.
We only had 12 pitchers with at least 200 strike outs.
Of those 12 pitchers, four had an ERA of 3.99 or more (Price, Archer, Pineda, Ray)
Another had a WHIP above 1.30 (Hamels)
And still another is dead.

Other top pitchers are questionable or hurt.
Harvey, Carrasco, Strasburg, Gray, Keuchel, deGrom, Ross, Ross, Richards, Cole, Nola, Matz, McCullers, to name more than a few.
It's part of what makes this draft so tough.
We don't know how all those injuries are going to shake out.
We do know that they must be punished for being hurt. And they certainly are.
This year seemed to have more of the lingering type injuries instead of Tommy John's which are easy to eliminate from our lists.

I'll post round four shortly.

[DOUGHBOYS]

The fourth round of the PreMature E-draftulation draft was filled with veterans. Players who have returned the faith drafters have put stock in them over the duration.
Wil Myers and AJ Pollock the only possible exceptions.
Here it is....15-1

ROUND 4

15. Kyle Seager
14. Buster Posey
13. Jonathon Lucroy
12. Nelson Cruz
11. Jon Lester
10. David Price
9. Ryan Braun
8. Adrian Beltre
7. Johnny Cueto
6. Wil Myers
5. Chris Archer
4. Aroldis Chapman
3. AJ Pollock
2. Zach Britton
1. Steven Strasburg



ROUND 1

1. Mike Trout
2. Mookie Betts
3. Paul Goldschmidt
4. Jose Altuve
5. Kris Bryant
6. Nolan Arenado
7. Manny Machado
8 Brian Dozier
9. Clayton Kershaw
10. Josh Donaldson
11. Bryce Harper
12. Max Scherzer
13. Charlie Blackmon
14. Anthony Rizzo
15. Miguel Cabrera

ROUND 2

15. Starling Marte
14. Trea Turner
13. Trevor Story
12. Corey Seager
11. Xander Bogaerts
10. Madison Bumgarner
9. Carlos Correa
8. Freddie Freeman
7. Edwin Encarnacion
6. Chris Sale
5. Corey Kluber
4. Jonathon Villar
3. Giancarlo Stanton
2. Noah Syndergaard
1. Francisco Lindor

ROUND 3

3.1- George Springer
3.2- Gary Sanchez
3.3- Jake Arrieta
3.4- Rougned Odor
3.5- Robinson Cano
3.6- Christian Yelich
3.7- Matt Kemp
3.8- Jean Segura
3.9- Dee Gordon
3.10- Daniel Murphy
3.11- Mark Trumbo
3.12- Joey Votto
3.13- Yu Darvish
3.14- Justin Verlander
3.15- JD Martinez

[Bronx Yankees]

Some really good picks in my opinion. Interesting seeing the changes between this draft and ones from last season. For instance, three catchers selected in the first four rounds. I think I was in some drafts last year where Posey was the only catcher taken in the first seven rounds. Always interesting to see how early the top closers go off the board. I usually have a tough time grabbing a closer very early, although it is tough to argue that Britton didn't return (at least) 4th Round value last year, or that Chapman wouldn't with a full season (assuming no more late-night target practice in his garage). The Wil Myers pick, and even the Bryce Harper pick, bring to mind one of the issues that I find toughest when ranking players: how much weight to give to a single season's performance. Both Myers and Harper, I would argue, achieved all or most of their potential - and returned real value to their owners - in a single season. Myers, after some injuries and/or underwhelming performance, had an awesome season last year. Is that his new normal? If you think so, Harper is perhaps a cautionary tale. While still really young, and after showing tremendous potential but never really putting up big numbers on a season-long basis, everything came together for him in 2015. I think a lot of folks, including me I confess, thought he had put it all together and would be a perennial fantasy stud every year out. Of course, we all know he took a step back this season (a big step back if just looking at his final stats), but we also know that he is capable of returning to his 2015 form, or maybe even improving on it (but will he?). I'm not criticizing either pick - both players actually were taken about where I thought they'd be - but they highlight that tough decision of how much weight to give to a single season's results where that one season is definitively better (or worse) than prior seasons. Do we overweight the most reason season compared to prior seasons? I don't know the answers but those are some of the fun challenges thinking about a new drafting season. Thanks for sharing the results of this first draft.

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

Good thoughts, Mike.
There is also the opposite side of the spectrum.
Tyson Ross and Ben Revere were taken high in drafts last year. They fell flat on their faces.
They still have the same skills they possessed as before those drafts. But now, we've seen colossal failures from both.
They have to be punished.
And they will be.
Both will not be taken until a lot later this coming year.
It's our way of spanking these kids for their bad behavior.
Ross will be forgiven in later drafts with health and good performance during spring training.
The best that Revere can hope for is to be traded to a team where there is little threat of losing his job.

In Revere's case, it is a reminder how baseball has changed. A judy at the top of the lineup is not enough. He also has to have a little punch to go with his judy.
Trea Turner Pipped Revere.
Managers are more comfortable with pop like Turner's, Adam Jones, Matt Carpenter, Logan Forsythe, Dustin Pedroia, and Charlie Blackmon over the peskiness of a Billy Hamilton, Ben Revere, or Delino DeShields.
Dee Gordon, a throwback.
If Colorado trades CarGo over the off season, I would expect Blackmon to be put in a more rbi-friendly spot in the batting order while LeMahieu takes over lead off duties.

[DOUGHBOYS]

This will be the last of the PreMature Draft posted.
Round five was a mixed bag. Most drafters shoring up something craved.
All the while, more Closers being picked.

I'm very proud to be among these drafters. Each were very prepared and already had an idea where each player would be drafted. The NFBC uses this and other early drafts in preparing their defaults.
You might say that this draft is the genesis for upcoming adp's for 2017.
We could not have had a better group for the job.
Here is......

ROUND 5

5.1- Carlos Carrasco
5.2- Gregory Polanco
5.3- Jose Abreu
5.4- Billy Hamilton
5.5- Andrew McCutchen
5.6- Carlos Gonzalez
5.7- Ian Kinsler
5.8- Mark Melancon
5.9- Chris Davis
5.10- Jose Bautista
5.11- Jeurys Familia
5.12- Justin Upton
5.13- Kenley Jansen
5.14- Kyle Hendricks
5.15- Carlos Martinez

[Bronx Yankees]

Nice job all with the first five rounds. Some really interesting picks. Thanks for sharing them with us (the masses who are jealous you guys are drafting already). Have fun with the rest of the draft!

Mike

[Gates]

Thanks Dan,
Much appreciated. Not to complain but usually you give us 6 rounds, just saying...
When do we start the second premature?

Gaëtan

[Rainiers]

Thanks for posting these. I really appreciate the great effort that goes into them so early.

The only headscratcher for me was Kenley being the fifth closer off the board. I can understand someone liking Chapman and Britton a little more than Jansen, but Melancon and Familia as well? I love the extra Ks you get with Kenley. What am I missing? I'm guessing its something...a lingering injury? a lurking new arm that can challenge Kenley? the Dodgers might chase the free agent Chapman? If anyone is willing, I'd love to hear the rational....

[DOUGHBOYS]

Thanks Dan,
Much appreciated. Not to complain but usually you give us 6 rounds, just saying...
When do we start the second premature?

Hopefully in about two weeks, Gaetan.