Runs Above Replacement

[Edwards Kings]

So I was looking through my MI options for 2017 (arguably a deeper pool than we have had in a long time with the rise of Altuve, Correa, Turner, Story, Seager, and Machado being eligble), and I know I am more into SABR more than many of you, but I was wondering how you felt about RAR (runs above replacement...yes, I know you know what "RAR" means, but did not know who else would read the post).

The reason I ask is that an anomaly jumped out at me. In the top picks, the RAR are (say that fast and people will think you are a pirate...sailing, not Pittsburgh) as expected 10.0+ with 9 or 10 being 20.0+...except Rougned Odor. How is a guy playing in Texas, who may hit in a decent spot in the batting order (I am thinking fifth, but spring training will confirm), who shows decent pop (not sure if he will hit 30 again, but 20+ is good), can steal 10-15 bases, drive in runs, and score runs have only a 2016 RAR of 4.8? Sure, his OBP was not so good, but with his 2016 results?

I guess it just proves no one thing is totally reliable.

A bad joke....

One morning in elementary school, the students were going to a geography class. The teacher wanted to show the students where cities and states are.

Starting out with an easy one, teacher asks the class, "Does anyone know where New York is?" Dan raises up his hand (wanting to get his class participation out of the way early) and says, "Yeah, New York!". The teacher replies, "Very good, Dan!, now can anyone tell me were Pittburgh is?"

The teacher asks the class, "Does anyone know where Pittsburgh is?" Billy raises up his hand and says, "Yeah, Pennsylvania!". The teacher replies, "Very good, Billy!, now can anyone tell me were Detroit is?"

Suzy raises her hand and says, "That's in Michigan!" The teacher again says, "Very good."

Trying to confuse the children, she now asks, "Where's Kansas City?" Tommy raises his hand and says, "Oh Oh Pick me!!!, I know?" The teacher says, "OK, Tommy where is Kansas City?" Tommy says "Missouri"!

"Very good!" says the teacher. "Now, can anyone tell me where Atlanta is?" Wayne raises his hand a little reluctantly. Teacher says, "Ok Wayne, where is Atlanta?"

Hanging his head, Wayne mumbles...

"Last place."

[Bob Enzyte]

Wayne, I think the reason Odor lacks in RAR is because, according to Bill James Handbook, he is the worst fielding regular 2nd baseman in the game. He joins Joey Votto and Andrew McCutchen to "lead" their respective positions.

[Edwards Kings]

Thanks Lindy. I guess other than potentially losing AB to the late inning defensive replacement (which really did not happen that much last year with 600+ AB), his RAR (and WAR) would not necessarily be the best indicator of his fantasy worth.

Or maybe you guys just want to let me have him for $10 in the Auction?

[Deadheadz]

Wayne, I think the reason Odor lacks in RAR is because, according to Bill James Handbook, he is the worst fielding regular 2nd baseman in the game. He joins Joey Votto and Andrew McCutchen to "lead" their respective positions.

Please educate me. What would defensive metrics have to do with runs (scored?) abover replacment?

[Bjs2025]

Wayne, I think the reason Odor lacks in RAR is because, according to Bill James Handbook, he is the worst fielding regular 2nd baseman in the game. He joins Joey Votto and Andrew McCutchen to "lead" their respective positions.

Please educate me. What would defensive metrics have to do with runs (scored?) abover replacment?

Probably the lack of defensive runs saved subtracted from his total.

[Edwards Kings]

WAR and RAR are SABR measures of a players worth to his team. Defence counts in that regard and "Fielding Runs" (a measure of how well a player fields his position or save runs) counts. That is why guys like Andrelton Simmons and his high defensive WAR gets him a cumulative WAR in line with Russell and Bogaerts on sites like FanGraphs.

[Bjs2025]

Bunch of geeks in a lab evaluating ball players. All I worry about is does he have a baseball body and what does his girlfriend look like.

[ToddZ]

If you're looking for one catch-all (or catch-most) stat, wOBA (weighted on base average) is probably the best. It's OBP with different coefficients for the components -- derived to best estimate the run producing potential of the player. It's NOT park corrected. The equivalent in park corrected form is wRC+, which is on a 100 scale.

There are limitations to wOBA

- no component for SB
- it's a rate stat so playing time, place in the order and team context isn't accounted for

Truth be told, it's better for DFS than seasonal.