The ADP trap!

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Tue Feb 27, 2007 12:03 pm

The Average Draft Position has become 2007’s version of the Pet Rock. Everyone’s jumping on the bandwagon. Now I’m not knocking the benefits of doing mock drafts or looking at their results. They can help in a limited way. But I see people actually planning strategy around these. That’s the trap! Let’s look at these drafts. Many people are trying new strategies just to test them out. The money leagues can help but still you have to look at the situation. A single league format can be vastly different than say the NFBC main event. Strategies to win one league are often used that wouldn’t work in the NFBC main event. So what to do? First believe in your draft list. You made it for a reason. Don’t let the ADP trap talk you into something else. Second remember that people react differently when the big money is on the line. The best plan is a second plan and a third, fourth etc.

Many players say that playing fantasy baseball is like poker. While this is true in the auction game the straight draft is more like chess. Don’t look for the expected move rather look for the trap.

My only worthless advise this year.

John Crane

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Feb 27, 2007 12:14 pm

Walla - didn't you take j.damon in the 2nd round last year??? Me thinks you NEED to consider ADP this time around

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Tue Feb 27, 2007 12:38 pm

GG, Depending on who's ratings you use he finished around 30. That's where I drafted him.

My mistakes came later.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Feb 27, 2007 12:54 pm

Good point Walla - I've also noticed the main draft tends to play out differently than the satellites. Not sure if it's the live draft crowd vs the online crowd, or if its the strategy or pressure of the high stakes event, but I'd agree if you go in expecting the main to play out true to ADP you'll be in for some surprises that go beyond changes due to last minute news.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Feb 27, 2007 12:56 pm

Originally posted by Walla Walla:

GG, Depending on who's ratings you use he finished around 30. That's where I drafted him.

That's the problem

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Feb 27, 2007 1:01 pm

Originally posted by Walla Walla:

GG, Depending on who's ratings you use he finished around 30. That's where I drafted him.

That could be the problem. If you draft plaers and they merely perform equivalent to where you drafted them, you won't win.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Feb 27, 2007 1:03 pm

Originally posted by Walla Walla:

GG, Depending on who's ratings you use he finished around 30. That's where I drafted him.

That could be the problem. If you draft plaers and they merely perform equivalent to where you drafted them, you won't win.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Feb 27, 2007 1:07 pm

Originally posted by Walla Walla:

GG, Depending on who's ratings you use he finished around 30. That's where I drafted him.

That could be the problem. If you draft plaers and they merely perform equivalent to where you drafted them, you won't win.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 1:22 am

John,

I agree with you, but I also read from your post that you are wise to consider ADP (or what they represent which are current trends), just not as the sole factor in determining your draft strategy, right?

For example, you may have a player you think has a great chance to produce top 30 impact (Player X). However, the ADP/trends have him going say in the sixth round. Rather than choose him in the second, you might select someone else who you are high on, but the trends say he will not last into the third round (Player Y). Then you select Player X in the fifth round (earlier than his ADP), but you get the benefit of both (plus maybe two more players you have targeted in the 3rd and 4th rounds). Looks win/win to me, but ADP can help you develop that strategy.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 5:31 am

Do they put out an ADP for say the Main Event and the Ultimate's ($5,000).

It would be interesting to see the TRUE ADP's when over $1,000 is on the line vs. mock/expert league ADP's.

~Lance

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 5:40 am

Edwards Kings, True you could gamble that the player slides to the 6th round. But he could also be picked right after your pick in the third. Now you've passed on a player who you had rated better than the one you picked and lost out on the one you really wanted. So your gambling on that player making it to the 5th round. So do you bet your draft on unknown intentions of 14 other owners or go with your rankings??

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 5:51 am

Originally posted by Walla Walla:

Edwards Kings, True you could gamble that the player slides to the 6th round. But he could also be picked right after your pick in the third. Now you've passed on a player who you had rated better than the one you picked and lost out on the one you really wanted. So your gambling on that player making it to the 5th round. So do you bet your draft on unknown intentions of 14 other owners or go with your rankings?? But don't you do that anyway? Every round and every pick you (and me and all the others who are prepared) make is a choice between several candidates, so there is a risk and an opportunity cost. To (badly) paraphrase Big Jack from the movie "Hoffa", all events are "...measured by what is gained and what is lost..."

I know I am splitting hairs, but the discussion is good.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 6:00 am

Walla, I agree with you 100%. You should take Johnny Damon in the FIRST round this year -- that way you can be sure he's yours.

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Wed Feb 28, 2007 9:10 am

Queen, I took Albert Pujols first last year picking from the first postion. I took Damon second and A. Jones third. I believe A-Rod was rated first and drafted by most as first. If you look at my draft and point out the better picks at that point of the draft I'm all ears.