Something to think about!

[Edwards Kings]

So my wife and I just finished our signature "Dan Kenyon Halloween" costumes:



and I have my speech to the Halloween kiddies all ready:

"Do not walk to the next house. Never walk. Walks are bad. Always take a swing at someone/something first (not me). Don't worry about missing. Try again. Twice. If you miss three times, don't worry. You've done well. You have done yourself more good than taking a miserable walk. If you connect. Run....45% to the right."

I decided also I wanted to do a Kenyon-esque post. Two players (minor Sabermetric version):

Player A Age 27; AB 584; BA .289; OBP .370; H 66%; BB 11%; FB 46%; HR/R/RBI 53/103/138

Player B Age 25; AB 542; BA .284; OBP .422; H 62%; BB 19%; FB 43%; HR/R/RBI 52/128/114


Pretty interesting profiles. Not the same year...so...who are they?

[DOUGHBOYS]

Very Funny...very funny,,,actually, that was funny

To paraphrase Mark Twain..."A walk is a good at bat, spoiled"

Just to put others out of their misery, the two players are Aaron Judge and Chris Davis.
There are a lot of similarities.
Although I do not believe that Judge applies for an exemption from Major League Baseball each year to take a drug that is PED related.
I was telling a friend yesterday that Judge will probably never see a roster of mine this coming year.
I like the kid, but the hype, especially the Yankee hype, will keep him way above what I'd be willing to pay to get him.

I know that you are more of a sabermetrics mind, but I feel that Judge will be a better hitter than Davis over the long run.
He has more 'bat sense'. No, that isn't a BatMan trait. Judge does not swing full force every pitch as Davis does. He is willing to give up his full swing at times and punch the ball. A skill that Davis never embraced.

Judge is getting the Mickey Mantle treatment among Yankee fans. But, at this stage of his career, he reminds me more of Dave Kingman.
Kingman would hit towering shots with the ball landing in parts of the park that no other hitter could reach.
His strike outs and slumps in between those shots forgotten with each gargantuan blast.
This isn't to compare Judge statistically to Kingman, just the way he is viewed by baseball fans.
The other night I asked five baseball fans (not statistical nuts like us) who led baseball in home runs this year.
Four of them said Judge.
The hype machine rolls on!

[Bronx Yankees]

Judge is getting the Mickey Mantle treatment among Yankee fans. But, at this stage of his career, he reminds me more of Dave Kingman.
Kingman would hit towering shots with the ball landing in parts of the park that no other hitter could reach.
His strike outs and slumps in between those shots forgotten with each gargantuan blast.
This isn't to compare Judge statistically to Kingman, just the way he is viewed by baseball fans.
The other night I asked five baseball fans (not statistical nuts like us) who led baseball in home runs this year.
Four of them said Judge.
The hype machine rolls on!

Whoa, let's slow down a little, fellas. I agree it is premature to anoint Aaron Judge as the next Mickey Mantle, but the Dave Kingman comparison is pretty harsh. While I agree the Judge hype-machine may be overblown at times, the pushback also may be a little severe.

Let's take a quick look at Judge's 2017 stats, his first full year in the majors:

Home Runs = 52 (Mike Trout's career-high, in 2015, was 41)
Runs Scored = 128 (Mike Trout's career-high, in 2012, was 129)
Runs Batted In = 114 (Mike Trout's career-high, in 2014, was 111)
Stolen Bases = 9
Batting Average = .284

Now, I'm not going to suggest that Judge is Mike Trout's equal. Trout is a better baserunner, steals bases, and is a much-stronger defender (although anyone who watches Judge regularly knows that he is no slouch in the field and is surprisingly athletic). That said, in his first full season, Judge basically beat or tied Trout's career highs in HR, R and RBI, while stealing a few bags and maintaining a solid batting average. While Judge strikes out way too much, and I believe his batting average is more likely to decline than improve, he is a far, far better hitter than Dave Kingman, and the vast majority of players in the Major Leagues today. With Judge playing in a hitter's ballpark, and with a decent-to-good lineup around him, Judge should continue to put up strong numbers in HR, R and RBI and possibly provide modest contributions in SB and AVG. It would be overly-optimistic to predict a repeat of 2017 for Judge in 2018, but do folks doubt his power, or likelihood to have above-average (40+) HR and counting stats over the course of a season?

That said, he also may be too rich for my blood this coming draft season. I definitely have him as a first rounder, but probably more towards the middle or back-half than the front of the round.

Just my two cents. Let the bashing begin! Go Yanks!

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

Oh, you Yankee fans!
I wasn't comparing Judge to Kingman. I was comparing them in how they are perceived by baseball fans.
The blasts are enough to make them watch each at bat, while the strike outs and slumps are tolerated in between.
Judge will be both hyped and bashed all drafting season. He's the nature of the fantasy beast.

As said, I like the kid. He has his two feet firmly planted on the ground.
For fantasy purposes, I know that I could not even take him in the first round.
I know that anticipation of continuation is a strong current. Just the same, I'd rather have somebody else take him at the highest price while I Missouri/Missouri him.

[Edwards Kings]

I am glad it gave you at least a chuckle...kind of my version ringing your door bell and then hiding in the neighbors bushes.

The similarities (and potential traps) between Judge and Davis to me are too close to ignore. If Judge looses himself in his press and never does anything but swing for the fences, he is certainly in for some very down years in between some highly effective years.

I have a buddy who is a big Yankee fan. I grew up hating the Yankees...and making fun of all other yankees...you know...those people who showed up every summer heading for the beaches in those big, black Buicks with bullet holes in the side and who paid Uncle Redeye two bits to get into his roadside "attraction" to see him wrassle his dog that he had painted to look like an alligator. Then of course I go and marry a yankee, so go figure...

Anyway, my buddies assertion is that the new crop of Yankees are set for a 20 year dynasty after the sweep of Houston in NY. Actually I told him I had expected the Yankees to win two in NY, so a whopping one game surprise...now back on the road...where they were less than .500 during the year (40-41) and have won ONE game so far in the post-season to go with four losses. Now I do like Severino, but if the Astros get to him like they did one of the two times he pitched in Minute Maid this year (nine hits, six earned runs and the other time was a 4.0 inning start) pitching against Verlander, then the Yankees hopes and dreams are on CC Sabathia (who will appear in a reality series this winter with Bartolo Colon called "Race to the All-You-Can Eat Buffet"). I told my buddy that he (who throws like a girl) throws harder than CC.

As to the rest of the young blood, what are the Yankees gonna do....eat the $90m they still owe Ellsbury (34) over the next four years? Chase Headley (33) will be owed $13m next year...Gardner (34) $11M. Where they gonna play Torres with Gregorius and Castro lead-footing it up the middle (ok...slightly below replacement level D)? How bout that Castro, huh? 25 SB in 2012, 22 since.

And the pitching staff. Like I said, I like Severino and Abreu is tearing up the AFL, but Tanaka is pitching with an elbow made of Meullers spagetti (cooked). Gray was a good get and is under team control for two more years (better hope the 2016 version doesn't show up again), but it cost Fowler, Mateo and Kaprelian. And that is with ditching the prospects for Robertson (who the Yunks will have in 2018 only), Kahnle (whom I like a lot) and Todd Frazier (FA after the upcoming losses to the Astros).

His response was to tout Gregorius as one of the best SS in baseball. He said you would be hard pressed to think of a better find in Cashman’s career. And he called me delusional if I didn’t think Greg Bird has a higher ceiling than Judge and Sanchez. He thinks Bird will be better.

Man...that a sad statement about Cashman. The Yankees (in a three team trade) gave up a good reliever (Shane Greene) to get a ballplayer named "Didi" (embarrassing right there), then had to give up all those prospects to get Robertson and Kahnle which they may not have had to if they kept Greene.

Gregorius one of the best? Ehhhh...had a good fielding percentage but his defensive WAR (DWAR) was only 0.1...below just about every other starting SS...which typically means his overall metrics were limited...his big surprise was that his bat woke up in 2016 and improved in 2017. That is where his value is...not his defense.

Bird has power...to go with that .190 BA (not much better after he got back in late August). I do like Bird, but an injury prone 1B with a less than .290 OPB and a 70% contact rate...a lot of bad to go with the good. BTW, Judge had a 63% contact rate...Judge will do good to see north of .250 BA again pushing all that air...and Sanchez is the real deal. Bird has a higher upside....sorry...no.

I know there are a lot of big Yankee fans and I am mostly pulling their collective chains, but 20 year dynasty? Love Sanchez and Judge and Severino and that bullpen, but after that...naaah...

But anyway, that conversation is what got me thinking about the Judge/C. Davis paradigm...

[headhunters]

so didi is good offense- average d? sounds like jeter. man- that evaluation of the yankees is about as harsh as i have seen. to me they have a really good lineup. pretty good starting pitching and the best bullpen in baseball. it could be worse, they could have paid 350 million for carl crawford and jason heyward. word is theo called atlanta and offered heyward AND russell- just to get rid of heyward.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Ha! Was writing a piece on Heyward when you brought him up, Mike...

Here it is...

Do you know who needs to strike out MORE?
Yes, in this age of the strike out where it is cool to strike out then stare at the pitcher to make sure he is not further embarrassing a hitter more than he has already been embarrassed, there is a hitter who NEEDS to strike out more.
Who is it?
Jason Heyward.
Heyward is that guy that reminds us that not everything Theo Epstein turns to gold.
Every year, Heyward says he will change his swing and that he'll be better next year.

Heyward has gone from 152 strike outs in 2012 (the same year he hit 27 homers and stole 21 bases) to just 67 strike outs this year.
Heyward has done something that most players cannot do.
He has turned himself from an over paid regular player to a ultra over paid platoon player.
The Hell of it is that Heyward (batting average-wise) hits just as well vs. lefties.

Heyward has a nice glove. That's the first line of defense (pun intended) when baseball fans defend Heyward.
But, the truth is that defense does not keep you in the lineup.
Heyward's tumble in strike outs should be met with glee by sabrs.
Instead, it's a source of embarrassment.
Heyward can hit into a shift better than most players.
He can roll over a pitch and ground a ball to the right side, probably, better than most players in baseball.
And, as some famous scribe once said, he displays a skill he OWNS that 'skill'.

Heyward is a big, strong cat with an abbreviated swing. I'll bet when he sneezes, he holds it back and barely makes a sound.
THAT is his batting style.
He needs a hitting coach to teach him to swing like McCovey and strike out like Ruth.
When he sneezes, everybody should take notice.
He has a long contract.
Which rhymes with contact.
And is the big problem for Heyward in River City.

We are in the 25th round of our PreMature Draft.
Heyward is like the uncoordinated kid we didn't want to choose for our team in P.E.
He is still waiting to get picked.
Until he figures it out that he needs to swing harder and strike out more, he'll always be that kid.

[Edwards Kings]

As long as Theo eats a reasonable portion (reasonable as defined by Atlanta) of the salary, I would take Jason back in a heartbeat. The hitter is there. I am convinced of it.

But Dan is right...today he has elite contact but taps the ball like a back-up shortstop. Still hits way too many balls on the ground, period.

Not sure about Russell but doubt Theo would actually give him up, especially since it would make more sense to unload Zobrist somehow.

And I too think the Yanks have a good team...I guess I oversold it, but my point was that it is too early to call a good team a new "dynasty".

The Braves on the other hand....

[headhunters]

right now jason heyward has the worst lefty swing i have ever seen. not only does he hit a ton of ground balls - he has the 6th highest pop up rate in baseball. so the braves need another average outfielder? maybe they can platoon heyward and kemp. kemp can hit and heyward can play right field. the cubs have 7 corner outfielders next year- and no center fielder. i hope theo has the balls to tell joe to play heyward in center- where he will be average- so they can get 2 good hitters in the lineup. otherwise either happ or baez will be benched. they ain't gonna get better there. right now- heyward is crawford. 150 million bucks wasted. i only brought up russell because the cubs can put baez there and the braves have a guy at short that is (right now) just like heyward- all "d'. although that really isn't a problem with some good bats around him.

[TParsons]

so didi is good offense- average d? sounds like jeter.

This was my initial thought as well. I have always been on the "Jeter was overrated as a player" (Not a as a leader) bandwagon, so leave it to me to compare Didi Gregorius to a HOFer. Then I heard on a show that Gregorius' career year this season would be Jeter's 11th best season in terms of WAR. That gave me pause. I guess the big difference is the BB% (Gregorius' BB% is atrocious), leading to a huge OBP gap between the two. Now I just have to figure out if it's that Jeter was better than I thought, or Gregorius isn't as good as I thought.

[Edwards Kings]

right now jason heyward has the worst lefty swing i have ever seen. not only does he hit a ton of ground balls - he has the 6th highest pop up rate in baseball. so the braves need another average outfielder?

Yeah...I hear you. Maybe it is gross sentimentality on my part...he is, by all accounts and in my one casual conversation with him, a nice guy (looking around sports these days, just not that many), and does play awesome defense. No, he will not become the perpetual 30+ power guy we had dreams of back when he was knocking flyballs into the parking lot of his first couple of spring trainings'. He is making elite contact, but with no authority. I think his swing has been screwed with by so many hitting coaches. If he starts swinging with authority (even at the expense of some of the contact), I believe he could be a batting asset again.

As an aside...I was carrying on a conversation with my wife, in this case what I thought about the third-basemen in 2018. Well, as it turns out, I was carrying on a conversation with myself with my wife present.

I noticed the ever popular eye-roll. I asked "What?"

She said "I thought after the regular season I would get at least a few weeks break!"

Silly woman....