Using the two Mag Drafts as a very small sample size, an average of 17 pitchers were taken by the 6th round (after the sixth, there was a significant drop off in the 7th with regards to pitchers taken). These came from a pool of 19 pitchers of which, the first 11 were the first 11 taken in both drafts.
Now comparing Santana, whom I agree is the most desirable pitcher in the draft, with the four categories he will anchor on my team and compare him to the dozen or so "best" starting pitchers I think I can get in rounds 4 through 6. I look at the delta, including how reliable I feel the respective pitchers are.
By the way, Johan gives up as many or more flyballs than his peers (i.e. high strikeout power pitchers). As good a pitcher park as Shea is, the Metrodome may be more as it appears to depress LH and RH power more even than Shea.
Next I compare the offensive players I could get (should get) in the first and compare them to the offensive players I could get in rounds 4 to 6. I do the same thing and look at the relative deltas. In this light, for me Johan comes out a little less dominate.
Not to put too much Hoffa on it, but it is all about what is gained and what is lost.
Barring spring training injury (heaven forbid), Johan will be a sexy 1st round pick and will be gone by pick 10-11 in 95% of the NFBC Leagues. He will go as high as 6 and will slip to the turn in a couple.
Place your bets.
[ January 31, 2008, 07:03 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]