Crazy's Top Ten Overrated picks of 2008

[Crazy Like a Fox]

#1 - Russell Martin: He's sure to go in the top 3 rounds, I don't see too many perennial 20 steal catchers that ever keep up that pace. His stolen bases are sure to fall, and his other numbers won't warrant the round he's taken. There is HUGE position scarcity with catcher, maybe this year more than last, but Martin will be overrated come draft day. V-Mart is the most reliable catcher and that scores big points when predicting future value. Martin is more of an unknown (and that will drive up his value come draft day) Don't fall for that way of thinking.



#2 - Howie Kendrick - Overrated last year. This year no different. This player going back to the minors has never demonstrated very much patience at the plate, nor has he exhibited any real power. .300-12-70-80 runs - 15 stolen base is tops for his potential for 2008, and I doubt he will do that. Yet, people keep picking him every year as a sleeper.



#3 - Joey Votto - He has never shown much power and if you ever want a Helton-Lite player then go ahead and draft him. He will never be a big contributor especially when you consider the depth at first base.



#4 - Carlos Pena - Huge year in 2007, very consistent month to month. Big question is, is he for real? Tough question to answer. I believe the answer is no. I believe last year might be/will be his career year, and just that. I think there is a huge regression here.

.270-23-85 rbi's. I think at age 29 to all of sudden find your stroke is so rare, I think it is more realistic his 2007 was a fluke than not, and you should steer clear.



#5 - Eric Byrnes - See Carlos Pena. Gotta love those stolen bases though. Major dropoff in production.



#6 - Matt Kemp - He is a good player, no doubt, I think he played over his head last year in a limited role. He could easily be a .300-20-80 rbi-20 sb guy if he was guaranteed a 150 game season. Since he's not, he will be widely overrated come draft day.



#7 - David Wright - I see a slight regression. He is basically Garrett Atkins with 21 stolen bases next year. He's a top 5 pick in your draft, when those stolen bases fall to 20, he'll have to hit 40 homers to get good value at that spot, and that won't happen.



#8 - Josh Hamilton - Maybe not overrated as a player, but my at-bat projection is around 450 at-bats. He should not be taken over Hideki Matsui by any means. Risk/reward pick - although I believe there's much more risk. Great potential no doubt. But he is a major injury risk and you'd have to take him fairly early to get to him first.



#9 - Manny Ramirez - No longer a top 10 outfielder, he is without a doubt in a decline. He will probably have a better year this year with a more healthy season but he is simply not the same player he used to be. Be careful with your expectations.



#10 - Geovany Soto - Never has this guy displayed much power except in his September callup. He will be targeted by many to be a sleeper, but I would pass on him in a heartbeat.



#11 - Cole Hamels - 189 innings was the highest in his career. I love the guy's arm and potential don't get me wrong, but I think you'll be disappointed with his innings next year. I really shouldn't say anything bad about him because he could be a top 2 pitcher in the National League if healthy. His injury potential scares me.



Honorable mention:



Josh Beckett, John Maine,



Side note: This list was made at 3:00 a.m. - I will not mention my underrated list, that will remain a secret until draft day.



Fire away.



[ January 31, 2008, 01:34 PM: Message edited by: Crazy Like a Fox ]