Crazy's Top 10 Underrated Overrated Picks of 2008

[Crazy Like a Fox]

Let me clarify, these are not my top 10 most underrated players. These are the top 10 players most will feel are overrated come draft time who I think will outperform your expectations IMHO.



#1 - Prince Fielder - Big time power source ala Ryan Howard, with improvement going across the board. I think we have a superstar in the making. He made adjustments in the 2nd half of last year showing more patience at the plate and could very well have a better season than Howard this year, especially in the average department. I'm seeing .315-50-135 - He will make his case for top 1st baseman next year and we might actually see him go higher in the draft than Pujols in 2009.



#2 - Brad Lidge - I think the farther he gets away from that Pujols homer the better. I think to a more extent, steroids (or lackthereof) in the last few years has led to his decline, that'll hurt your confidence. He does seem to pop the fastball in their pretty hard though. It's a tough call, but I think we'll see 35 saves with 100+ strikeouts this year, 3.20 e.r.a. - 1.20 whip. He's pitching in a tough park, but I think he'll be closer to the old Lidge than the new one this year. We'll have to wait and see. I'd hate to be this guy's psychologist. Even with my projection, you have to take into consideration that this guy is a total headcase, and could either be extremely successful or be demoted to middle relief at some point. Draft with caution.



#3 - Erik Bedard - This guy had 4 straight solid months last year, exhibiting excellent control and a great K/BB ratio. He was simply dominant during that stretch and has finally put it all together. I've been waiting for this guy to breakout for awhile. He's always had incredible stuff for a lefty. I think he's for real, and he's dominant as long as he can stay healthy. I think he's a top 5 starter next year and you should get great value from him.



#4 - Magglio Ordonez - For some reason, the feeling with him I get from other people, is somehow his career year came out of nowhere, and it did but to a small extent. Between 1999-2003 he had a 5 year stretch with similar numbers until he got hurt. After posting 2 consecutive healthy seasons he can be counted on to produce in similar fashion. That batting average will have to come down a bit but I'm seeing an MVP year out of him and possibly the #1 fantasy outfielder of 2008.



#5 - Miguel Tejada - He's not getting any younger but I see him dropping big time in drafts and I think there's real value there. I think with his consecutive games streak over, that kind of stress to keep it going is gone, and should actually help his numbers. He's going to a real nice hitter's park, he'll start the year healthy and I see no reason why we won't see 162 games out of him to go along with VERY strong numbers. My aggressive projection is .320-27-120 with a whopping 3 stolen bases yippee. I guess I don't think he's lost it quite yet. 2008 will tell us.



#6 - Brandon Phillips - Showed glimpses of fantasy stardon in 2006, had huge year in 2007 with consistent numbers across the board since day 1 of that season. I see more of the same, he's in a great hitter's park. I could not argue with somebody taking him late first round this year. He's probably a better pick than Utley (I hate to say that but it's true)



#7 - Ian Kinsler - This guy looks like this year's Brandon Phillips - He scores runs in bunches, has developing power, and thrives in Arlington. His home/road splits are Rockiesque, hopefully he can bridge the gap this year. He needs to stay healthy for an entire season to show his true potential but I see .280-25-80-115 runs - 30+ stolen bases. Grab him in the 4th round and don't look back.



#8 - Johan Santana - Please don't let this guy slip to the 2nd round. He's clearly the top pitcher (even with Peavy bridging the gap) and with the likelihood he ends up on the Yankees, look for possibly 20-22 wins with another Cy Young season in store. Last year's homers allowed was just an aberration. When those drop by 10 he'll get his e.r.a. into the 2.80 range.

Some people question whether you should take a pitcher in the first round making it more difficult to create a good offense. Well boys, that's why you do your research, so you make up for it with value picks and risk/reward picks in the later rounds.



#8 - Hunter Pence - I see him going as high as the 5th round, and for good reason. He should have a big season, but 2009 is going to be his superstar breakout.



#9 - Gary Sheffield - That lineup he's in is going to create some serious scoring opportunities. He's still possibly the best offensive player on that team and with better health, comes a monster season. Not bad for a 4th rounder.



#10 - Ryan Braun - Could give top 10 value this year although he'll inevitably be picked somewhere in the 2nd round due to lack of experience. I usually steer clear of players with not a lot of experience, but this guy is legit, and he should provide very good value, even in the 2nd round. This is another guy I could see going ahead of Pujols in the 2009 draft. Doesn't mean I'm down on Pujols either.