Pujols arguably not worth 2nd round either....

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Thu Mar 06, 2008 8:17 am

****://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080306&content_id=2408098&vkey=spt2008news&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

Somebody said recently in this forum, the later he goes, the less risk. Well, I don't understand that logic. He's risky in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th rounds. Those are prime drafting rounds.

There is also belief that news reports have been misleading. Yes, he has had this for awhile and could very well have a great year, but is it worth the risk of losing your first or 2nd rounder knowing this information.

Another belief is that anyone you take in the first round is equally risky. That is obviously not true. And a point I should even have to argue.

At this point, I would argue he should not go until late 2nd round to 3rd round based on known information regarding injury.

Someone will take that risk, but you should pass on him.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Mar 06, 2008 8:35 am

This has been argued ad nauseum. :rolleyes:

I see Soriano falling to the middle to late 2nd in some sats. Besides being on your team why do you think he will hit 45 hr's and steal 35 bases?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Mar 06, 2008 8:40 am

Mr dough - your inbox is full!

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Mar 06, 2008 8:59 am

Thanks Mark. Fixed.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Thu Mar 06, 2008 9:10 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

This has been argued ad nauseum. :rolleyes:

I see Soriano falling to the middle to late 2nd in some sats. Besides being on your team why do you think he will hit 45 hr's and steal 35 bases? Just 2 years ago he hit 46 homers playing in a pitcher's park to go along with 41 stolen bases.

Last year, he hit 33 homers in 135 games, prorated, that's 40 homers in 162 games. Also, he had 2 months of 11 and 14 homers showing he could have 50 homer potential.

Playing in a hitter's park, with an even better lineup behind him, and expecting him to be "more comfortable" in his 2nd year with the team, I expect him to dominate this year.

I think it's ridiculous that people think his stolen bases will regress without having a real basis for it.

He simply stopped stealing bases in the last 2 months last year because he was injured. It wasn't because he decided that he's too old or too slow to steal bases. There is no reasoning for people to assume that he'll stop his stealing ways.

I do expect his average to come down a bit from last year closer to his career average. Last year's average was one point off his career high. I expect closer to .280-45-90-120 runs with 35+ stolen bases. I think he'll be top 3 in MVP voting this year.

And I'm not saying all this "because he's on my team". I've been targeting him for awhile.

If I thought I could get him in early 2nd, I might go Johan #1, Soriano #2. I see Soriano dropping as well. I guess it's because he hurt his little finger. Poor babies.

I had to settle for Soriano #1, Peavy #2 in my first draft.

My 2nd draft comes on Sunday.

I'm looking to fix a couple of the mistakes I made in the first draft, waiting too long to draft #2 SP after picking Peavy (you were right about that) and picking 4 outfielders in the first 10 rounds with the lack of solid infielders left in the later rounds. Even with those mistakes, I feel I had a much better draft than Rick Thomas IMHO, and we'll let the season speak for itself.

Even with my man-love for Soriano, my happiest pick is Delmon Young in the 8th. I look for him to have a HUGE year.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Mar 06, 2008 12:02 pm

I don't think there was a better power hitter in September of last year. The guy just went crazy. Thanks to him my team moved from out of the top 10 to four last year. I took him at #2.

Its a different year and we're all another year older and Soriano doesen't even get a whiff of #2, or maybe he does and thats his problem...sorry sidetracked...

Lets face it, Soriano is 32 now, you don't get faster with age. Even before his leg problems last year, I was disappointed with his sb production. IF he plays more than 140 games I would be surprised if he gets more than 20 steals.

As for power, the 45 is possible, but barely. His career year was two years ago when he hit 46, besides that year he has never hit more than 40. I would think that even 40 as a projection would be pushing it.

Before last year, his three year batting average was around .275, that would be a good projection.

Now throw in a leg injury that many say he hasn't fully recovered from and what may be a lingering hand injury and I don't see a guy that will match first round expectations, let alone exceed them.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Mar 06, 2008 12:13 pm

Yup...constipation will hinder "Fonzo's" numbers in 2008...book it!

He needs more sniffing of #2.

HA!!!!

~Lance