The stupid HR derby curse...

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:11 pm

Can we add Josh Hamilton to this list?

Think about it a little more than normal...

The home run derby is just an extremely stupid competition to take part in DURING the season.

After...fine.

But during...idiotic idea.

It would be like having a pitchers duel...to see who could throw over 96 MPH for 120 throws in a row.

~Lance

[ August 31, 2008, 12:13 AM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Aug 31, 2008 7:21 am

Lance,

Your title got me hoping that you were doing some myth busting but no such luck. In June, Hamilton hit 5 Homeruns with a .278 average, 14 R, 19 RBI and 1 SB. In July, he hit 6 HR with a .287, 16 R, 24 RBI, and even 4 SB, and he did most of that after the break. Not sure what the problem is since he improved in every fantasy category.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:02 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

Lance,

Your title got me hoping that you were doing some myth busting but no such luck. In June, Hamilton hit 5 Homeruns with a .278 average, 14 R, 19 RBI and 1 SB. In July, he hit 6 HR with a .287, 16 R, 24 RBI, and even 4 SB, and he did most of that after the break. Not sure what the problem is since he improved in every fantasy category. Naaa...just whining.

I have Josh in a local high stakes league...and it just seemed like he's not crushing the ball like pre-HRD.

It's gotten to the point I pray my big HR hitters decline the invite to the home run derby.

Just to be safe.

~Lance

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Sun Aug 31, 2008 8:43 am

See what you get when you whine publicly!!!

~Lance

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Sun Aug 31, 2008 7:43 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

Lance,

Your title got me hoping that you were doing some myth busting but no such luck. In June, Hamilton hit 5 Homeruns with a .278 average, 14 R, 19 RBI and 1 SB. In July, he hit 6 HR with a .287, 16 R, 24 RBI, and even 4 SB, and he did most of that after the break. Not sure what the problem is since he improved in every fantasy category. He has 0 SB after the break.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6679/splits

.310 pre

.253 post

HR are fine....

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Aug 31, 2008 10:13 pm

Originally posted by JohnZ:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

Lance,

Your title got me hoping that you were doing some myth busting but no such luck. In June, Hamilton hit 5 Homeruns with a .278 average, 14 R, 19 RBI and 1 SB. In July, he hit 6 HR with a .287, 16 R, 24 RBI, and even 4 SB, and he did most of that after the break. Not sure what the problem is since he improved in every fantasy category. He has 0 SB after the break.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6679/splits

.310 pre

.253 post

HR are fine.... [/QUOTE]He clearly hit worse after the break overall, but the point is that if it was the HR derby the symptoms would have manifested themselves immediately (in July) rather than a month later. It is a good player who was hitting ridiculously reverting to the mean, nothing more.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 5:56 am

Morneau went from .323 to .284 (drop of .039)

Hamilton went from .310 to .253 (drop of .057)

I'd like to see the finalists pre and post averages from the last few seasons.

Just curious if it indeed has a history of screwing up swings.

Looking at 2007...Vlad went unchanged.

Alex Rios improved his average...but his power has not returned yet. (went from 17 to 7)

Ryan Howard tore it up post all star game in 2006.

David Wright went from 20 HR to 6.

Not enough trends to say for sure.

~Lance

[ September 01, 2008, 12:03 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Sep 01, 2008 6:33 am

Oh, you just had to ask. Here is the aptly titled article "Swing and a Myth: The Home Run Derby Effect"

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=4209