Next Live Chat: Alex Patton, Peter Kreutzer Feb. 24th

[Peter K.]

Originally posted by huskyfan88:

Fact or Fiction. Matt Kemp will perennially be a 30/30 player beginning this year. Who else besides Grady & Hanley has a shot at it this year? I don't see the 30 homers just yet. That's not his game right now.



Who might do it you didn't mention? Ian Kinsler is the best shot I see.



Alex Rios and Nate McLouth have the potential, too.

[Alex Patton]

Originally posted by Peter K.:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

Francisco Liriano, pay big or avoid? Those aren't the only two choices.



Well, his second half was so good maybe they are.



I think you can legitimately push him as far as you have to to get him, and he could be worth it. But there's a lot of risk that goes with that. Someone is going to take it, so the original premise was right.



I'm sensible, so I would avoid, but I like what I see. [/QUOTE]Again, in a snake mixed-league draft, which seems to be the game for most of the folks here, I'd pay big: early middle rounds. To assemble a team that's merely good will leave you smack-dab in the middle. Liriano has the potential that only a few other pitchers have (all of whom will be gone by the middle rounds) to make your pitching staff far better than good.

[Alex Patton]

Originally posted by Peter K.:

quote:Originally posted by huskyfan88:

Fact or Fiction. Matt Kemp will perennially be a 30/30 player beginning this year. Who else besides Grady & Hanley has a shot at it this year? I don't see the 30 homers just yet. That's not his game right now.



Who might do it you didn't mention? Ian Kinsler is the best shot I see.



Alex Rios and Nate McLouth have the potential, too. [/QUOTE]

[Alex Patton]

Originally posted by Alex Patton:

quote:Originally posted by Peter K.:

quote:Originally posted by huskyfan88:

Fact or Fiction. Matt Kemp will perennially be a 30/30 player beginning this year. Who else besides Grady & Hanley has a shot at it this year? I don't see the 30 homers just yet. That's not his game right now.



Who might do it you didn't mention? Ian Kinsler is the best shot I see.



Alex Rios and Nate McLouth have the potential, too. [/QUOTE][/QUOTE]Forgot Kinsler. He's a better choice than BJ Upton.



Alex Rios? No way.



McLouth? Almost no way, but it's possible.

[Peter K.]

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

Mark Reynolds hit .279 in 2007 then .239 in 2008. He looks like a future 40 homer - 120 rbi 3rd baseman. Obviously those strikeouts he amasses in truckloads is a killer. Can that BA ever stabilize?



What's your projection for Mark Reynold's BA in 2009?



Here's a scenario, let's say I'm pretty strong in BA by the 9th round and my homer/rbi's are looking around midrange compared to the rest of the league, does it make sense to take a guy like Reynolds, knowing his BA could singlehandedly take 2-3 points off the composite BA.



Is it worth taking a chance that he hits somewhere between his first 2 years' BA (.260) justifying a pick there or is his BA too risky to even look at him? The problem with Reynolds is that he has such a hard time hitting the ball that it could cost him playing time. That might save you those lost BA points, but obviously it would be a catastrophe. I'd make him part of a Dump BA strategy. Or rather, don't pay for batting average.



The beauty is that even if you try to dump BA, the randomness of BA means if you get a little lucky you can get some points anyway. Which can give you some midseason strategic moves for victory.



Or all your bad BA guys can lose their jobs and you can be miserable.



Good luck.

[Alex Patton]

Originally posted by Peter K.:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

Do you recommend drafting a stud SP in the first 4 rounds and who?



If you had to pick your number #1 pitcher from this group, who would it be and why?



Ervin Santana

Chad Billingsley

Yovani Gallardo

Roy Oswalt

A.J. Burnett I think you can make an early pitcher pick work, but it's risky and the point isn't to take the pitcher early, but to take him late for his value.



That means you take hitters until a pitcher is clearly better than the available hitters. If that situation doesn't arise, there isn't a problem these days waiting to get starting pitching.



There are plenty of guys who can round out a staff, making that anchor less important. [/QUOTE]I disagree with Peter here. The very best starting pitchers are so obvious that you better take at least one in the first four rounds, because they will all be gone after that.

[Alex Patton]

Originally posted by rkulaski:

Catcher:



How do you think the TX catcher situation plays out? Is Teagarden too raw to make a fantasy impact this year?



First Base:

I heard on Baseball Tonight that R Howard starts off slow because of all the motion in his swing and it takes him longer to get his timing back each year. Any reason why Teixeira starts off slow each year?



Second Base:

Is H Kendrick capable of increasing his HR and SB totals this year the way Pedroia did from '07 to '08 (8 HR, 7 SB in '07 to 17 HR, 20 SB in '08)?

Overall thoughts on Kendrick this year assuming good health?



Thanks for your time today. Will Teagarden EVER make a fantasy impact? I doubt it, though his defense will keep him in the big leagues for a while.



A plausible explanation for Howard. I have note explanation for Tex.



I can say with total confidence that Kendrick will NEVER be Pedroia. The same confidence that I said Pedroia would never be Pedroia.



If you can get Kendrick for around $10, he'll be great. If you get him after a nasty bidding war, he'll get hurt in April.

[Alex Patton]

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

What up and coming reliever has the best chance to pull a Soria this year? Chad Qualls. Too old to be considered an up and comer, but that's why he won't cost much. In mixed league snake drafts, like Soria last year, he'll be available in the last three rounds.

[Quahogs]

Originally posted by Alex Patton:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

What up and coming reliever has the best chance to pull a Soria this year? Chad Qualls. Too old to be considered an up and comer, but that's why he won't cost much. In mixed league snake drafts, like Soria last year, he'll be available in the last three rounds. [/QUOTE]??? Sure in one of those 12 round drafts. Last year in the NFBC Soria's ADP put him in the 10th round. Qualls should go no later than the 13th.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Originally posted by Alex Patton:

quote:Originally posted by eddiejag:

Mr Patton how many labor auctions have you won.



Peter Golenbock and I won, or were winning, in 1994. Sorry to say, I haven't in LABR since 1996 (I think).



Do you put a limit on your pitching ,most people spend anywhere from 40 to 100.



Normally around $100.



Why dont the expert's ever play in the big money leagues like the NFBC.We did have Meatloaf one year in Vegas but his team dropped like a bat out of hell.



Because it costs big money to play! But at Ron Shandler's thing in Phoenix last fall, Greg practically had me believing it's the best ROI going in Vegas. No, he did have me believing. But I don't go to the tables either.





What do you think of these 3 player's.Basically are you buying or passing on these guy's.

Alexi Rameriz



I like a lot, but not until the middle rounds.



Mike Aviles



I really like, and would snatch him eaerly in the late rounds. Somebody's going to pounce ahead of you if you try to finess it.





Rickie Weeks



Great late-round pick. Even though I'm not much of a fan. Point being you need upside in the late rounds.



thank you [/QUOTE]I do want to thank Mr. Patton for coming on. It is very nice of him to take time out of his day to talk with us and answer questions. With that being said, I disagree with a lot of what was said, a lot of it was aimed toward 12 team snakes and auctions which isn't very helpful to the majority, but that is what Mr Patton is accustomed to, so I totally understand.

I was in the process of beginning a thread to help some of the newer players, trashed it, since

[DOUGHBOYS]

Sorry to say, I haven't in LABR since 1996 (I think).



Do you put a limit on your pitching ,most people spend anywhere from 40 to 100.



Normally around $100.



Why dont the expert's ever play in the big money leagues like the NFBC.We did have Meatloaf one year in Vegas but his team dropped like a bat out of hell.



Because it costs big money to play! But at Ron Shandler's thing in Phoenix last fall, Greg practically had me believing it's the best ROI going in Vegas. No, he did have me believing. But I don't go to the tables either.





What do you think of these 3 player's.Basically are you buying or passing on these guy's.

Alexi Rameriz



I like a lot, but not until the middle rounds.



Mike Aviles



I really like, and would snatch him eaerly in the late rounds. Somebody's going to pounce ahead of you if you try to finess it.





Rickie Weeks



Great late-round pick. Even though I'm not much of a fan. Point being you need upside in the late rounds.



thank you



[ February 24, 2009, 05:15 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

[DOUGHBOYS]

Originally posted by Alex Patton:

[QUOTE]Originally posted by eddiejag:

[qb] Mr Patton how many labor auctions have you won.



Peter Golenbock and I won, or were winning, in 1994. Sorry to say, I haven't in LABR since 1996 (I think).



Do you put a limit on your pitching ,most people spend anywhere from 40 to 100.



Normally around $100.



Why dont the expert's ever play in the big money leagues like the NFBC.We did have Meatloaf one year in Vegas but his team dropped like a bat out of hell.



Because it costs big money to play! But at Ron Shandler's thing in Phoenix last fall, Greg practically had me believing it's the best ROI going in Vegas. No, he did have me believing. But I don't go to the tables either.





What do you think of these 3 player's.Basically are you buying or passing on these guy's.

Alexi Rameriz



I like a lot, but not until the middle rounds.



Mike Aviles



I really like, and would snatch him eaerly in the late rounds. Somebody's going to pounce ahead of you if you try to finess it.





Rickie Weeks



Great late-round pick. Even though I'm not much of a fan. Point being you need upside in the late rounds.



thank you


[ February 24, 2009, 04:05 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

[MadCow Sez]

Mahalo for your time!

[King of Queens]

Originally posted by Alex Patton:

Best is still the first, because all of us were still trying to figure it out back then: Patton's 1989 Fantasy Baseball Price Guide, Simon and Schuster. I actually bought this book 20 years ago, and still have it. In fact, I just pulled it off my bookshelf. IIRC, this was pretty ground-breaking stuff for its time. Other than the annual Rotisserie rulebook/price guide, and some flimsy new publication called "Fantasy Sports Magazine," there really wasn't much out there for the fantasy player in 1989.



Flipping through the book takes me back to a time when there was no internet and no Excel -- a brave few of us ventured into Lotus 1-2-3 and brought print-outs to the auction. Mixed leagues were a foreign concept, and 4x4 was the de facto standard. I also got a chuckle out "Rotisserie League Baseball" bearing a registered trademark. Greg or others, correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the term "fantasy baseball" created to avoid using the Rotisserie trademark?



As for the valuations:



Top NL Players:

C - B.Santiago $15

1B - A.Galarraga $38

2B - R.Sandberg $33

SS - B.Larkin $33

3B - C.Sabo $29

OF - D.Strawberry $45

OF - A.Van Slyke $41

OF - E.Davis $39

SP - O.Hershiser $34

RP - J.Franco $45



Top AL Players

C - E.Whitt $15

1B - G.Brett $34

2B - J.Franco $28 (yes, THAT J.Franco)

SS - A.Trammell $23

3B - P.Molitor $38

OF - R.Henderson $56

OF - J.Canseco $56

OF - K.Puckett $42 (R.I.P.)

DH - H.Baines $17

SP - F.Viola $34

RP - D.Eckersley $50

[Greg Ambrosius]

Originally posted by King of Queens:

quote:Originally posted by Alex Patton:

Best is still the first, because all of us were still trying to figure it out back then: Patton's 1989 Fantasy Baseball Price Guide, Simon and Schuster. I actually bought this book 20 years ago, and still have it. In fact, I just pulled it off my bookshelf. IIRC, this was pretty ground-breaking stuff for its time. Other than the annual Rotisserie rulebook/price guide, and some flimsy new publication called "Fantasy Sports Magazine," there really wasn't much out there for the fantasy player in 1989.



Flipping through the book takes me back to a time when there was no internet and no Excel -- a brave few of us ventured into Lotus 1-2-3 and brought print-outs to the auction. Mixed leagues were a foreign concept, and 4x4 was the de facto standard. I also got a chuckle out "Rotisserie League Baseball" bearing a registered trademark. Greg or others, correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the term "fantasy baseball" created to avoid using the Rotisserie trademark?



As for the valuations:



Top NL Players:

C - B.Santiago $15

1B - A.Galarraga $38

2B - R.Sandberg $33

SS - B.Larkin $33

3B - C.Sabo $29

OF - D.Strawberry $45

OF - A.Van Slyke $41

OF - E.Davis $39

SP - O.Hershiser $34

RP - J.Franco $45



Top AL Players

C - E.Whitt $15

1B - G.Brett $34

2B - J.Franco $28 (yes, THAT J.Franco)

SS - A.Trammell $23

3B - P.Molitor $38

OF - R.Henderson $56

OF - J.Canseco $56

OF - K.Puckett $42 (R.I.P.)

DH - H.Baines $17

SP - F.Viola $34

RP - D.Eckersley $50 [/QUOTE]It was Fantasy Baseball Magazine because fantasy football wasn't even a blip on the radar in 1989. And I can tell you exactly how many people bought our debut magazine...it wasn't many. And yes, the Founding Fathers wanted us to use the trademark on every reference to Rotisserie Baseball and we had an internal meeting and said the heck with that, let's just call everything fantasy baseball and avoid that. We would have been Rotisserie Baseball Magazine instead of Fantasy Baseball Magazine, but history has proven we made the right decision.



Oh, and I think Alex and the rest of us have learned a lot through the years. There's no way ANYONE is valued at $56 in an AL-only or NL-only league. I'd say his dollar values are high, even in a 4x4. $50 for a closer?? But again, we all lived and learned.



One day I'm going to write a book on the history of our industry and guys like Alex Patton and John Benson and Ron Shandler will be featured. They were out there analyzing individual talent and placing values on them before anyone else, and honestly Alex and John have quietly done their things without much fanfare. They've been good for the growth of the industry and not enough people know what they've done through the years.



[ February 25, 2009, 06:44 AM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]