What Are You Doing, What Are You Thinking Now?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 12:44 am

Okay, we're 17 days away from Draft Day and I can almost see all of you folks hunkering down with your Cheat Sheets, your software programs, updating your projections for 500+ players, and checking out every player note on the Internet. It's almost as if you're too busy to even converse with loved ones or fellow NFBC members.

This past week I've dominated the message boards with signups and welcomes of our latest members. We are having a phenomenal push for all of our events, but I feel lonely on the boards. Come on out and join me today on the boards.

What are you doing now to prepare for the drafts/auctions? What are you thinking about right now? Are all of these early spring games and WBC games a blessing or a curse with the sudden emergence of injuries? Are you worried about A-Rod's hip or more concerned about Utley's hip? What do you think of Santana's sore elbow??

Do you think we'll sell out the main event? Should I have held another Super Draft League on Sunday NIGHT!!? What do you think our final NFBC Online Championship number will be and how big will that make the grand prize?

I'm off to the LABR auctions this weekend. Give me a prediction of what you think the top players will go for in each auction. Hanley for $42? A-Rod for $40? What do you think?

I'm going to see three baseball games in Phoenix this weekend, so life is good again. With any luck, I'll see the sun again. That will be a boost of energy right there. Can't wait.

Okay, use this thread to emerge from your draft preparation bunkers and just say hello. I know everyone is busy, but damn, this NFBC thingee is shaping up nicely. Say hello and recruit these last 31 members to fill up the main event. Thanks all and good luck this year.

MadCow Sez · Post by **MadCow Sez** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 1:13 am

I'm thinking about Vegas weather being a lot better than the 70-20-60-20 degree crap we've been doing in the central US. I'm ready for warm weather, cold beer, intense auctions, parley cards, March Madness, catching up with friends I see once/year....I'm thinking about how much I'm going to enjoy myself in 2 more weeks. I'm also thinking about how to zag when everyone else is zigging in NFBC.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 1:32 am

Good luck in the LABR.

I have about 90% of my draft notes for players by position done and trying to filter the garbage that is coming out of spring training to decide who is going to get the most AB's in those undecided positions. I have about 80% of the batting orders down and waiting for the above and the other stupid spring training "experiments" to be done so I can have some comfort as to who is going to generally bat where. The WBC is putting much of these kinds of things on hold, so I am identifying the best gambles. I am waiting on the next relevant ADP's, not so much that it will change how I view some players, but to compare to previous ADP's I have collected or compiled to see who is moving up and more importantly who is potentially slipping into bargain territory. In short, just another year.

I am more concerned about A-Rod's hip than I am about Utley's. Utley's has been fixed and it is only a matter of time for him. A-Rod is an unknown. I do not know about Santana. Unless the Mets are smokin' us, all those innings over all those years, a sore elbow cannot be a good sign. Luckily for me, I never considered using a high draft pick on him (or CC or Tim).

As a matter of fact, one of the draft strategies I am considering is all offense for the first ten rounds. Probably will not have the guts to do it in the main, but with so much quality pitching mid/late, it just might work this year.

Here is the one and only guarantee I will make this year. I will not repeat (again) the mistake of shorting any categories this year in the main out of the draft.

Here is to sun and suds! See you guys in Vegas!

Potter · Post by **Potter** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 2:35 am

If you don't get to 500 teams for the online, I'd be shocked. There will be a ton of new players hopping on board the last week. And when 90% of the owners leave the main event feeling like they have a winner, the 3 packs will be flying off the table.

freddiezee · Post by **freddiezee** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 2:37 am

1. I'm most concerned about Santana's elbow because he is a pitcher. No pitchers in the first 2 rounds this year? Of the two famous hips, I am more concerned about Utley because we don't know the severity of A-Rod's yet. But I must admit, the A-Rod issues sure are piling up.

2. I think KDS is dominating most of our thoughts right now. We are probably all very interested in Friday's ADP email.

3. I am going out on a limb and predicting that the main event will sell out by Monday - with the final league being a two-city combo (Orlando + Vegas) or a city-phone combo (Orlando + phone). I think it will be hard (impossible?) to get to 30 in Orlando. Yesterday has to have been one of the best signup days in the history of the NFBC. If you are reading this post and still deciding if you want to sign up - trust me, do it! You won't regret it - Tom and Greg run a great contest and spots are filling up faster than most of us thought.

Looking forward to meeting a lot of guys in Vegas!

Potter · Post by **Potter** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 2:38 am

Oh yeah, A Sunday night Super Lg. would be soooo money. Having to behave Friday night to be ready to go Saturday is hard enough. 2 nights in a row is borderline cruel and unusual.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 2:52 am

Originally posted by Potter:

Oh yeah, A Sunday night Super Lg. would be soooo money. Having to behave Friday night to be ready to go Saturday is hard enough. 2 nights in a row is borderline cruel and unusual. I agree. There seems to be some interest in this idea. I may put a feeler on the boards soon. Even if we hook everyone else up to just us crazies in Las Vegas on the phone, it could fill. Stay tuned and look for a post on this soon.

Attie · Post by **Attie** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 3:38 am

Hi, Guys:

Since I'm new to the NFBC and just got access to the message board, I thought I'd try it out. With only 30 spots to go, I think this thing could sell out by Sunday. Greg, if it does, will you revise the KDS date and pick teams earlier? Or will you do it next Wednesday after the noon deadline passes? Regarding preparation, I have read so many conflicting projections, I hardly know what to take seriously. I used to listen to Matthew Berry on ESPN Fantasy Focus, but I much prefer the solid analysis on some of the other podcasts now. I'm spending a lot of time trying to analyze each team's closer situation, but after the first half dozen or so, every team seems up in the air. Also, I'm having a hard time figuring out where to rank the one dimensional guys....Willy Taveras, Jason Giambi, Jack Cust....I leave for Vegas on Saturday, the 14th for "business", so I need to get most of my homework done before then. Greg, how will we be notified about our leagues and draft position? Via e-mail or on this message board?

I can't wait for the fun......Remember "You're only young once, but you can be immature forever"!

Attie

Hard Heads · Post by **Hard Heads** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 3:50 am

Only one team from the top 45 from last year missing?? Get them on board and that is one less team of the final 30 you have to worry about!

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 4:06 am

i'm pumped about participating in my first NFBC live auction. i told myself i wasn't going to overanalyze everything, and i've held true to my form. these nest couple weeks of injury reports are of the biggest value to me for final draft prep. i'm really looking forward to meeting everybody in chicago and good luck to all.

bill

Likewhat17 · Post by **Likewhat17** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 7:12 am

First year competing here, and probably one of the younger players in the event and I'm uber excited! Just for the chance to compete with the best players in the world is the ultimate thrill.

ThatGuy · Post by **ThatGuy** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 7:40 am

Love studying the ADP and highlighting sleepers and what round I can hopefully grab them in.

Greg, is there any thought to having a main event in either Los Angeles or San Francisco in the future?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 7:53 am

Originally posted by Hard Heads:

Only one team from the top 45 from last year missing?? Get them on board and that is one less team of the final 30 you have to worry about!

Now each of the Top 46 teams from the 2008 overall standings are back in the main event, thanks to Will Robertson just signing up. Pretty amazing. In fact, I think we have almost 300 returning teams back in 2009, which is an even more amazing number. Thanks all.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 7:56 am

Originally posted by ThatGuy:

Love studying the ADP and highlighting sleepers and what round I can hopefully grab them in.

Greg, is there any thought to having a main event in either Los Angeles or San Francisco in the future? At this point, I'd have to say no. It's hard to try and target a certain city that could produce 60+ teams. I mean, if we had 100+ teams from California coming to Vegas, I'd say we have a market that could be twice that if we went there. Honestly, we've found that creating a location where folks can have fun along with the draft is probably the best recipe for success. That's why I've always considered New Orleans a possible venue for us.

If I were to predict in 2010, I'd say we'll stick with Las Vegas, Chicago and New York and expand the online/phone option. But we'll see what the next year brings.

SluggoJD · Post by **SluggoJD** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 8:34 am

These days, I'm actually relaxing a little...since I'm 2 weeks further along than I have been the past two years at projecting stats.

Just paying attention to injuries, and to a lesser extent all spring action, fine-tuning projections and strategy, and remaining focused.

I came in 7th 2 years ago, and finished a respectable 54th or something like that last year, even with the health issues. Hard work really does pay off. I know I've worked as hard as anyone since Thanksgiving at this stuff, and I am determined to win it all this year

And Rick, if you're out there, I really hope we bat heads again this year...like I said before, I've never had so much fun competing, and I am a better player partly because of you.

SluggoJD · Post by **SluggoJD** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 8:37 am

As for auction values, I predict Hanley, Reyes and A-Rod to all go $40 or more.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 8:42 am

OK...you want to know what I'm doing right now?

Feeling retarded.

Inspired by Shawn's "Free Agent Spending" article, I decided to go back and re-trace my well known shortcoming of free agent bidding from the 2008 main.

I found out that of the 998 I spent on free agents (winning bids only)...I was only counter bid 130.

Now I understand this doesn't factor in my losing bids nor other players winning other bids, and thus not showing up as a counter bid...but still...that is one shitty ratio.

In review...I only had a couple worthy pickups, and my BEST one was ruined by who I dropped to get him! (winning Chris Davis but dropping a "slumping" Andre Ethier :rolleyes: )

I vow to make this part of this game my strong point in 2009!!!

Now on to the rest of the seven PAGES worth of article links to catch up on!!!

~Lance

[ March 04, 2009, 02:44 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 8:51 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

OK...you want to know what I'm doing right now?

Feeling retarded.

Inspired by Shawn's "Free Agent Spending" article, I decided to go back and re-trace my well known shortcoming of free agent bidding from the 2008 main.

I found out that of the 998 I spent on free agents (winning bids only)...I was only counter bid 130.

Now I understand this doesn't factor in my losing bids nor other players winning other bids, and thus not showing up as a counter bid...but still...that is one shitty ratio.

In review...I only had a couple worthy pickups, and my BEST one was ruined by who I dropped to get him! (winning Chris Davis but dropping a "slumping" Andre Ethier :rolleyes: )

I vow to make this part of this game my strong point in 2009!!!

Now on to the rest of the seven PAGES worth of article links to catch up on!!!

~Lance Good post Lance. I know you've heard this many times from Zaleski and others, but to win in the NFBC you have to grind, grind, grind for 26 weeks of FAAB. With no trading in place, you must improve your team continually through free agency and do it smartly, a little here and a little there. Those owners who consistently win in this format are the best grinders in the business. Yes, they draft well, but they grind better.

This 26-week season is a marathon and some owners lose interest after several weeks. Other owners NEVER lose the Sunday itch to improve their teams. That's why they win, win, win. I wish everyone good luck and admire those owners who GRIND the best.

Hard Heads · Post by **Hard Heads** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 1:52 pm

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by Hard Heads:

Only one team from the top 45 from last year missing?? Get them on board and that is one less team of the final 30 you have to worry about!

Now each of the Top 46 teams from the 2008 overall standings are back in the main event, thanks to Will Robertson just signing up. Pretty amazing. In fact, I think we have almost 300 returning teams back in 2009, which is an even more amazing number. Thanks all. [/QUOTE]Sorry Greg, but the team that finished 23rd is not in the Main Event this year.

I truly wish we were, but....

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 2:19 pm

Originally posted by Hard Heads:

quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by Hard Heads:

Only one team from the top 45 from last year missing?? Get them on board and that is one less team of the final 30 you have to worry about!

Now each of the Top 46 teams from the 2008 overall standings are back in the main event, thanks to Will Robertson just signing up. Pretty amazing. In fact, I think we have almost 300 returning teams back in 2009, which is an even more amazing number. Thanks all. [/QUOTE]Sorry Greg, but the team that finished 23rd is not in the Main Event this year.

I truly wish we were, but.... [/QUOTE]Correct. But when you spend $2,500 to compete in one of our leagues, I consider that part of our renewal rate overall. Sorry, I need to color code my sheet better, but you are marked in green with the others who have spent $1,300 or more to return in 2009. Good luck in the Super Draft League...and there's still a spot left in the main event for you guys!!

billywaz · Post by **billywaz** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 2:24 pm

Originally posted by Hard Heads:

quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by Hard Heads:

Only one team from the top 45 from last year missing?? Get them on board and that is one less team of the final 30 you have to worry about!

Now each of the Top 46 teams from the 2008 overall standings are back in the main event, thanks to Will Robertson just signing up. Pretty amazing. In fact, I think we have almost 300 returning teams back in 2009, which is an even more amazing number. Thanks all. [/QUOTE]Sorry Greg, but the team that finished 23rd is not in the Main Event this year.

I truly wish we were, but.... [/QUOTE]Craig, are you serious????

I thought you were a "no-brainer" for the Main????

Hard Heads · Post by **Hard Heads** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 2:31 pm

Originally posted by billywaz:

quote:Originally posted by Hard Heads:

quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by Hard Heads:

Only one team from the top 45 from last year missing?? Get them on board and that is one less team of the final 30 you have to worry about!

Now each of the Top 46 teams from the 2008 overall standings are back in the main event, thanks to Will Robertson just signing up. Pretty amazing. In fact, I think we have almost 300 returning teams back in 2009, which is an even more amazing number. Thanks all. [/QUOTE]Sorry Greg, but the team that finished 23rd is not in the Main Event this year.

I truly wish we were, but.... [/QUOTE]Craig, are you serious????

I thought you were a "no-brainer" for the Main????

[/QUOTE]Yeah Billy we decided to invest in some satellites and the Super. We had a good run last year, but we wanted to focus on bigger league payouts. We hope to win our way in next year. I am seriously not excited to miss it, but we have a presence in the NFBC.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Wed Mar 04, 2009 8:05 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

OK...you want to know what I'm doing right now?

Feeling retarded.

Inspired by Shawn's "Free Agent Spending" article, I decided to go back and re-trace my well known shortcoming of free agent bidding from the 2008 main.

I found out that of the 998 I spent on free agents (winning bids only)...I was only counter bid 130.

Now I understand this doesn't factor in my losing bids nor other players winning other bids, and thus not showing up as a counter bid...but still...that is one shitty ratio.

In review...I only had a couple worthy pickups, and my BEST one was ruined by who I dropped to get him! (winning Chris Davis but dropping a "slumping" Andre Ethier :rolleyes: )

I vow to make this part of this game my strong point in 2009!!!

Now on to the rest of the seven PAGES worth of article links to catch up on!!!

~Lance tsk..tsk..

sportsbettingman Waiver Release Andre Ethier OF 6/29/2008 8:21 PM ET

sportsbettingman Waiver Pickup Moises Alou $3 B 6/29/2008 8:21 PM ET

sportsbettingman Waiver Release Ian Snell P 6/29/2008 8:21 PM ET

sportsbettingman Waiver Pickup Chris Davis $317 B 6/29/2008 8:21 PM ET

[ March 05, 2009, 02:06 AM: Message edited by: JohnZ ]

SluggoJD · Post by **SluggoJD** » Thu Mar 05, 2009 9:04 am

Originally posted by SluggoJD:

As for auction values, I predict Hanley, Reyes and A-Rod to all go $40 or more. Ummm, can I change this?