NFBC Draft Results

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 3:45 am

Let's gear up for the Main Event with some more draft info. Here's a look at the first three rounds of two recent satellite leagues.

Discuss.

ROUND 1

1. A-Rod

2. Ramirez

3. Pujols

4. Reyes

5. Wright

6. Cabrera

7. Sizemore

8. Braun

9. Rollins

10. Teixeira

11. Howard

12. Kinsler

13. Utley

14. Upton

15. C.Lee

ROUND 2

16. Pedroia

17. Beltran

18. Hamilton

19. Holliday

20. Longoria

21. Soriano

22. Berkman

23. A.Ramirez

24. Crawford

25. Kemp

26. Sabathia

27. A. Gonzalez

28. Phillips

29. Santana

30. Fielder

ROUND 3

31. Lincecum

32. Quentin

33. Markakis

34. Uggla

35. Hamels

36. Webb

37. Granderson

38. Morneau

39. Roberts

40. Bay

41. Rios

42. M.Ramirez

43. Suzuki

44. Alexei Ramirez

45. Furcal

ROUND 1

1. Ramirez

2. Wright

3. Pujols

4. Reyes

5. Cabrera

6. Sizemore

7. Rollins

8. Braun

9. Kinsler

10. Utley

11. Howard

12. Hamilton

13. Texieira

14. Berkman

15. A-Rod

ROUND 2

16. M.Ramirez

17. Upton

18. Soriano

19. Beltran

20. Holliday

21. Markakis

22. Lee

23. Crawford

24. Longoria

25. Pedroia

26. Fielder

27. Kemp

28. Lincecum

29. Santana

30. Aramis Ramirez

ROUND 3

31. Quentin

32. Phillips

33. Suzuki

34. Gonzalez

35. Morneau

36. Roberts

37. Sabathia

38. Guerrero

39. Rios

40. Bay

41. Youkilis

42. Ellsbury

43. McLouth

44. Alexei Ramirez

45. McCann

[ March 09, 2009, 11:15 AM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 4:06 am

Nice range in two drafts for Manny...16 and 42!

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 4:11 am

I suspect the first draft listeed was pre-AROd injury announcment. ANyone have an idea where he is going now? 15 sounds a bit high considering missing a month plus risk of more if surg not successful

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 4:32 am

Originally posted by Schwks:

I suspect the first draft listeed was pre-AROd injury announcment. ANyone have an idea where he is going now? 15 sounds a bit high considering missing a month plus risk of more if surg not successful Not really.

Plug in another 3b for six weeks and then have a potential #1 overall pick at 15 for the next 20 weeks.

Utley still carries the same risks of setbacks, yet was taken in the first round in both drafts.

JohnP · Post by **JohnP** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 4:36 am

Originally posted by Schwks:

I suspect the first draft listeed was pre-AROd injury announcment. ANyone have an idea where he is going now? 15 sounds a bit high considering missing a month plus risk of more if surg not successful Yeah - that was me. Had 1st pick in a previous satellite and wanted to "diversify". That worked out well. Was pre-injury news by about 8 hours. Getting Prince and Lince with the next two picks eased the pain a bit.

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 4:48 am

Uggla at 3.4??

cindy · Post by **cindy** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 4:54 am

This year more than ever it seems that the end of the first round, start of the second round brings a TREMENDOUS amount of RISK/REWARD with UTLEY and AROD. Someone could gain a nice advantage and potentially win 100k with these guys as 2nd rounders or just as easily flush their $1,300 down the drain if these guys get shut down for the year. Should be interesting!!!!

graybros · Post by **graybros** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 5:10 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Nice range in two drafts for Manny...16 and 42! There is a Ramirez at 23 and 42 in that draft and it's not Lexi? Surely the 23 is Man Ram...

Dirt Dogs · Post by **Dirt Dogs** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 5:12 am

Could be Aramis Ramirez who plays 3B for the cubs and is pretty damn good!

Hard Heads · Post by **Hard Heads** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 5:13 am

Originally posted by graybros:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Nice range in two drafts for Manny...16 and 42! There is a Ramirez at 23 and 42 in that draft and it's not Lexi? Surely the 23 is Man Ram... [/QUOTE]I would Aramis since there is a M. Ramirez

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 5:15 am

It's Aramis. Sorry guys.

graybros · Post by **graybros** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 5:30 am

Originally posted by graybros:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Nice range in two drafts for Manny...16 and 42! There is a Ramirez at 23 and 42 in that draft and it's not Lexi? Surely the 23 is Man Ram... [/QUOTE]I guess it was Aramis...interesting how many passed on Manny in the 3rd round

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 5:44 am

Dough, I disagree about the Utley/Arod comparison. Utley had the whole joint cleaned up. ARod is going for the temporary approach of fixing the labrum, without attacking the underlying problem, whcih he will do offseason.

Even ARods doctors say he has only 80% chance of making it through the season.

AS to the "add the replacement's value " theory, I dont buy it. When you have guys like this they are unpredictable. Its not like these guys are machines...my car will be ready on May 9.

a) talk to guys who had Chipper last year. His play schedule was completely erratic. There was seldom a time when he was just DLed...he would play and then sit out for a few days aanad then play again. This makes it very tough to take advatage of the numbers

b) third base is very shallow this year. So who is this hypothetical replacement guy? Is he going to kill your avg or detract from your counting categories?

For my money, I let someone else take the risk. Id rather speculate on an upswing from healthy youth

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 am

Originally posted by Schwks:

Dough, I disagree about the Utley/Arod comparison. Utley had the whole joint cleaned up. ARod is going for the temporary approach of fixing the labrum, without attacking the underlying problem, whcih he will do offseason.

Even ARods doctors say he has only 80% chance of making it through the season.

AS to the "add the replacement's value " theory, I dont buy it. When you have guys like this they are unpredictable. Its not like these guys are machines...my car will be ready on May 9.

a) talk to guys who had Chipper last year. His play schedule was completely erratic. There was seldom a time when he was just DLed...he would play and then sit out for a few days aanad then play again. This makes it very tough to take advatage of the numbers

b) third base is very shallow this year. So who is this hypothetical replacement guy? Is he going to kill your avg or detract from your counting categories?

For my money, I let someone else take the risk. Id rather speculate on an upswing from healthy youth The ARod-Chipper comparison is poor. Chipper has a history of sitting games with minor injury, killing fantasy owners.

I am really leary of Chipper this year. Last year was actually one of Chipper's better years of not taking days off for minor injuries. I owe it to Smoltz, who admonished Chipper publicly for not playing. Magically, Chipper was in the lineup the next day and missed few days afterward.

I fear that without Smoltz to ride him, Chipper falls back into the same habits of taking four or five days off from an injury that would take others one or two days. A potential pitfall.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:16 am

Like Pujols last year, the risks on ARod and Utley, and now, Ervin Santana are at the forefront.

Weighing the risk/reward and formulating a strategy involving these players could be the difference between a good team and a great team.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 7:10 am

Again, I dont see the true comparison with Pujols...he was never slated to miss an extended period of time as ARod is. I think investing a first round pick on A Rod is a very poor gamble, one that I hope my leaguemates make.

My point about adding in ARod's replacement is that doing this only works if ARod comes back at or around the time projected and is able to play continuously over a significant period of the season.

Is he going to sit once per week thereafter? Will they rest him in day games after nights? Do they sit him if they are cruising in the division or conversely if they are out of race come Aug?

My own opinion is expecting a May-Oct season out of him is not realistic

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 7:17 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Like Pujols last year, the risks on ARod and Utley, and now, Ervin Santana are at the forefront.

Weighing the risk/reward and formulating a strategy involving these players could be the difference between a good team and a great team. If you get an A-rod, might make good sense to get another solid 3B that you can stick in utility after A-rod gets back. Maybe a Zimmerman type hitter.

I agree, it's very intriguing. I'm not sure the Utley/A-rod comparison is valid, as Utley might not miss any time. A-rod might be a little rusty in the first couple weeks coming back and how hard are the fans going to come down on him? It's not going to be pretty.

With that being said, I think A-rod is a decent play in the 2nd round but it does carry risk. Tough call for now. You'll probably see him go in a wide variation between 13-20 in drafts from here on out. The doctor did say 85%-90% chance he won't have any more setbacks, well, that 10-15% is just added risk to that 4 1/2 month expected playing time. If he has another setback you might get 3 1/2 - 4 months out of your 1st or 2nd round pick. A little dicey. Especially when health is one of the biggest factors in fielding a competitive team. You don't want to start off on the wrong foot.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 7:20 am

Nobody including Pujols himself, knew the extent of his injury last year. Drafting him was a risk of having him from 0-26 weeks. It turned out to be 26 and drafters who took him, got him at a significant discount including the overall champ.

The comparison is relevant, the only difference is knowing that ARod will miss six weeks. Because of the surgery, he, also, will come with a significant discount.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 7:46 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Like Pujols last year, the risks on ARod and Utley, and now, Ervin Santana are at the forefront.

Weighing the risk/reward and formulating a strategy involving these players could be the difference between a good team and a great team. So true.

Last year in my local league (my first baseball auction), everyone was saying I should rename my team the "All Hospital Team" (or something corny like that) after that auction because I kept bidding on players that were in the minors to start the season (Longoria) and a bunch of injured (Lackey, Kazmir) or sketchy (Beckett questions, Billingsly not assured a spot in the rotation, Kerry Woods injury history).

It worked out A.O.K!

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 7:50 am

Lance,

Was that last year or circa-NFBC 2005?

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 7:52 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

Lance,

Was that last year or circa-NFBC 2005?

I've purposely drank that 2005 NFBC draft memory clean away...but you just brought it back!!!

"pops open a bottle"...back to work!

~Lance

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 7:55 am

not to mention, ARod has had no spring training. if he comes back in May, just how rusty will he be?

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 7:55 am

Now that you dug that memory up...who the hell was that person you used in your team logo photo? (young skinny dude..."Welcome to Stevieland").

I've met both you and your league partner, and it didn't look like either of you two.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wl4m8oiC9k8

~Lance

[ March 09, 2009, 02:12 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 7:56 am

I think ARod is the type of play good for the 3-5 round this year. Last year he missed about a month and went 295 35 100 with 15 sbs. The SBs are out the window, we all know that. AS Crazy Fox pointed out, he also has other issues related to steroids, lying etc.

So his ceiling this year is last year numbers with 3-5 SBs. Of course that leaves out fact that he probably will play less time this yer then last AND will probably have playing time monitored upon his return.

I see best case scenario 285 27 85 with 80 runs and 3-5 SB. Then I build in risk, wherein even his doctors say 85% chance stays healthy...so I bring his value down 15% off of what his numbers indicate, add in his temp replacement and come to a 4-5 rounder.

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 8:06 am

Even ARods doctors say he has only 80% chance of making it through the season.

Then I build in risk, wherein even his doctors say 85% chance stays healthy...

The power of modern medicine. A-rod's chances of staying healthy increase by 5% over the course of this thread. And still 4 weeks until opening day.

[ March 09, 2009, 02:07 PM: Message edited by: Joe Sambito ]