1. Javier Vazquez - Current ADP - 125.5 - Why he’s going so low? Most will look at last year’s numbers and see a 4.67 e.r.a. and 1.32 whip and not even look at him. His xEra shows he was more unlucky than bad. I see a guy who’s had 9 consecutive years with 32+ starts, solid strikeout and whip totals. Career wise he’s got a 3 ½ to 1 K/BB ratio, which is excellent. His numbers should improve across the board now that he’s in a pitcher’s park and more importantly away from the homer inducing Cellular Field. I like him enough that I'm willing to draft him before anyone has in the current ADP, without hesitation. Aggressive prediction: 16 wins - 3.30 e.r.a. / 1.17 whip / 210+ K’s and a top 5 finish in the Cy Young voting.
2. Carlos Zambrano - Current ADP - 150.67 - You don’t see too many consistent winners undervalued, but Zambrano is one of them. He’s been a very consistent starter over the years, but he has slipped on everyone’s list due to one “bad “ year and somewhat disturbing trends.
This is the glass half full/half empty situation. Or, more to the point, the glass 1st half full/2nd half empty. You could look at his first half and say, look, the guy has still got it. 10-3 record, 2.83 e.r.a., but those strikeouts have clearly gone down. 2nd half was, well, unbelievably bad. So, you either believe he’s the consistently dominant pitcher he has been for 5 ½ years, or you let ½ season determine his overall value. I for one believe in Carlos Zambrano. For those of you taking Josh Johnson ahead of Carlos, shame on you , that is utterly riiiiiiiiidiculous. What the hell has Josh Johnson ever done? I'm done with my mini-rant.
3. Francisco Liriano - Current ADP - 79.67 - I think it’s possible we’re all undervaluing him, including me. He doesn’t have his 2006 fastball back and relying less on his slider, he now has an improved changeup in which his pitching coach has compared to Johan’s. I love Peavy, don’t get me wrong, but will Peavy be better than Liriano in 2009, I’m not 100% sure. Liriano is really growing on me. I believe he’s still “learning” how to pitch. And with 190 innings pitched last year (including minors) he has shown he can go a full season. With another year removed from TJ, we could see Liriano take one more step in the maturation process. He could be a steal in the 5th round, yes, an absolute steal.
4. Daisuke Matsuzaka - Current ADP - 120.00 - He’s getting obliterated by the experts. It feels like they think he’s Nomo re-incarnated and he’s all of a sudden gonna fall apart. Yes, he’s Japanese, no, he’s not Hideo Nomo. Atleast, not yet. Was he lucky to have a 2.90 e.r.a. last year? The answer is a resounding yes. He was lucky to have an e.r.a. under 4.00 to be frank, especially with those 94 walks in a mere 167 innings. What he lacked in control, he made up in not getting hit. Only 128 hits given up in 167 innings, batter’s hit a mere .211 against him, quite dominant and not an indicator as a near future collapse. If you listen to many, they’ll tell you, “stay away, stay far away”. I’m not staying away, I’m paying close attention. He’s played 2 years in the major leagues and has 15 wins his first year and 18 wins the next. That shows me he’s a winner. He exhibit’s a nice K/9, has a great offense behind him and is at a nice age (29). What’s not to like, seriously? Hey, if the guy was giving up more than a hit per inning with those walks, then I’d worry. Will he ever have an e.r.a. as low as 2.90 ever again, probably not, count on somewhere between 3.50-4.00. He’s a solid big game pitcher who’ll give you many wins combined with a nice e.r.a, whip, and strikeouts. And you gotta love that he slipped this far. He won’t slip past me.
5. Oliver Perez - Current ADP - 228.33 - Perez is interesting. He’s always been a guy with talent, a blazing fastball, but mentally he’s a wreck. His K/9 is looking great as usual, as high as 9K/9 in the 2nd half. He is erratic from month to month. My guess is his 2009 will look somewhere between his 2006, 2007. 13 wins - 3.80 e.r.a. - 1.35 whip - with 180+ K’s. He’s definitely not getting enough love. Those K’s are hard to come by, and it’s really tough to find 180 K’s this late in the draft that doesn’t kill your e.ra./whip ala Jonathan Sanchez, more on him later.
6. Kevin Slowey - Current ADP - 162.50 - Slowey is the epitome of control. He has dazzled in the minor leageus. Pitching in AAA in 2007, he was 10-5 with an incredible 1.89 e.r.a. with a 6-1 K/BB ratio and an underrated K/9 rate. When they brought him up to the majors he scared everybody with his 16 homers allowed in only 66 innings. That was more an aberration, as he has never shown in the minors a pension to give up very many. But most forgot his incredible September that year giving us a taste of what’s to come. 29 innings, 3.34 e.r.a., only 2 walks allowed with 28 K’s. This got me thinking. When was the last time we’ve seen a guy like this? He truly has a chance to be special. In 2008, he was very solid, his first full season, he was up and down from month to month as most young pitcher do. But again, he had that month that you look at and say, wow, we’ve got somebody really special here. He showed it in the month of August. He went 4-1 with a 2.92 e.r.a. - 37 innings - 35 hits allowed - only 2 walks - 37 K’s. For you math whizzes that’s over an 18-1 K/BB ratio. Simply amazing. When’s the last time we’ve seen a month like that? Ok, May of 2007, Randy Johnson (no comparison here) had a 20-1 K/BB ratio but I digress. Kevin Slowey is getting better and better, and the older this guy gets, the less up and down months you’ll see, and the more consistenly dominant he’ll get. I haven’t seen a guy with this much control since Greg Maddux. In a couple years, he might be competing for a Cy Young. And just like Maddux, he’s a guy that will slip under the radar, because he just goes out there and gets the job done without very many paying close attention.
7. Chien-Ming Wang - Current ADP - 207.67 - This is probably the cheapest you’ll get him for the next 5 years. He’ll give you 17+ wins with a strong e.r.a. and whip. Let everyone else downgrade him because of his low K’s and his injury last year. You're not paying for 2008, you're paying for 2009. You either jump on him or you end up regretting it.
8. Gavin Floyd - Current ADP - 220.67 - I know what you’re thinking. You thought he was going to be good, me too, and he disappointed so many times, that you gave up on him, and eventually pulled the thought of him out of your head. Then 2008 comes, and he pitches the way he should have pitched the whole time. You’re still mad. You don’t believe it. I’m here to say he’s for real. Yes, he’s only shown it for one year, but this is a former 4th pick overall in 2001. He’s supposed to be this good. He has to improve his control a bit, and that e.r.a. probably should have been higher based on his peripherals, but he’s only 26 years old. He can still improve. And at where you get him in the draft, it’s a safe place to take him.
9. Kenshin Kawikami - Current ADP - 266.17 - Interesting, these Japanese guys don’t get as much love as a hot pitching prospect, yet they are much more seasoned professionals, who are much farther advanced in their careers. I make it a point to pay close attention to these Japanese pitchers, not all of them pan out, but they usually transition into the majors pretty well. Kenshin has similar numbers in Japan to Kuroda's although he’s exhibited better control with a much better K/BB ratio. He’s got a nice infield defense behind him as well as pitching in a pitcher’s park. I’m not expecting anything spectacular here, but he’s intriguing and not a bad idea to take a flier on.
10. Tommy Hanson - Current ADP - who cares?? Grab him. Wow. When I see this guy pitch it makes me smile. Is he really this good? The first fastball by Carlos Lee in his first spring training game, Carlos looks back at the catcher and shakes his head. First pitch to Tejada, he looks back at the catcher and smiles. He hits 95-96 with a flawless motion, and can bring it up to 99 on the gun with great control. They ask his skipper what he thinks of his potential during his first spring game, this being the first game action he’s seen him in, he doesn’t hesitate, “ace potential”. The Braves will most likely send him to AAA to start the season, but there’s no reason he can’t come up and be effective right away. I’m predicting he comes up in the beginning of May, but it could just as likely be June. If he starts the season in the rotation, bump him up a few rounds. I’m usually the first person to say, “be careful with rookie pitchers”, but this is different. This guy is really, really good.
11. Paul Maholm - Current ADP - 285.33 - Finally figured things out in 2008. Solid e.r.a./whip, decent K’s. That win total is hard to look at. But one thing I try not to do when looking at pitching is drafting wins. They’re almost impossible to predict. I’d rather focus on peripherals, and he looks like a guy who will take another step up. Like Gavin Floyd, he’s a former top draft pick who’s been toiling around trying to learn how to pitch. He finally figured it out. 4 out of 6 months last year he had an e.r.a of 3.38 or lower showing surprising consistency. You should take notice, his August was nothing short of dominant, 2.43 e.r.a. - .92 whip - 37 innings - 28 hits - 6 walks - 31 K’s. To top it off, he’s been dominant in spring which is obviously not a great indicator for future success, but it helps the outlook a little.
12. Aaron Harang - Current ADP - 178.33 - I don’t feel he’s being undervalued. It’s actually incredibly reasonable where he‘s being picked based on the circumstances. Rough 2008, injuries, bad pitcher’s park, Dusty Baker’s his manager. But understand that he’s coming in dedicated to turning it around. He’s lost a bunch of weight in the offseason, he’s determined. And seriously, go back and look at his stats in 2008. Do one thing for me. Look at all his numbers minus e.r.a. and whip (I know it sounds stupid, bear with me) His peripherals were really not that bad. He still had a decent K/9 while walking very few hitters. He had a 3-1 K/BB ratio, not the 4-1 that made him so good, but still better than most pitchers. Was his 2008 really that bad, probably not as bad as you think. Do I think he’ll bounce back? YES. He had 3 years of very solid pitching, last year is over and done with. Really, you could point to May 25 where he volunteered to work in relief on 3 days rest. In a span of one week, he threw 239 pitches and didn’t recover. Up until that point he was pitching very well. In fact, in the opening month he was everything you could expect out of a great pitcher. So it comes down to glass half full/half empty approach. I believe the glass is half full. Some think he will never recover, I think he already has.
13. Micah Owings - Current ADP - 534.83 - Interesting. Pitched really well in the first month of last season and then fell apart. For all intensive purposes, he was a better hitter than he was a pitcher last year. There’s something intriguing about him. He’s pitching really well in the spring going for that 5th spot in the rotation, maybe he’s the type of guy who pitches well early on, I don’t know, but something tells me he might have a breakout this year. Call it a hunch.
14. Anibal Sanchez - Current ADP - 330.17 - Please don’t recite his 2008 stats to me, I know them. The last 2 years he’s been recovering from TJ so I throw those small sample sizes out the window. If you want to take one positive thing from his 50 innings last year was his K/9 rate was up. Just 2 years removed from a 10-3 record with a 2.83 e.r.a. and 1.19 whip, he has sleeper written all over him. He’s not a bad gamble in the late 20’s. I don’t think it would be a complete shock to see Anibal with a better e.r.a./whip in 2009 than Josh Johnson who’s going 15 rounds earlier. Yeah, I’m not afraid to say it, he could be pretty good this year.
15. Gil Meche - Current ADP - 194.00 - Why is he undervalued? He’s on the Royals. Next question. He’s one of those boring, uneventful picks that you’ll be loving as your #4 or #5 starter.
16. Pedro Martinez - Current ADP - 504.17 - I am embarrassed to put him up here (no, I’m not). Pedro is a legend. He’s one of the greatest pitchers of all-time. What should that mean to you as far as projecting him in 2009, well, not much. I know he hasn’t done anything lately. But seeing him pitch (on you tube) in the WBC has me seeing some gas I haven’t seen in a while from Pedro. Maybe he’s got something left in the tank. Hey, if I had to guess who’s going to have a more productive season between (has beens) Andruw Jones and Pedro Martinez, I’d honestly choose Pedro. I can’t say I’m totally on the bandwagon here, but don’t take him off the draft list. Atleast pay attention to what team he’ll be on and how well he‘s throwing, maybe he’ll surprise us all.
17. Hiroki Kuroda - Current ADP - 236.33 - I guess I can’t stay away from these Japanese guys. Very solid whip, amazingly consistent considering it’s his first taste in the majors, language barrier, new country and pressure. What’s not to like? He showed great control, consistency, had an e.r.a. in the 2’s in half his months. He probably doesn’t strikeout as many hitters as you like, but who cares, he‘s not your 4th best pitcher on your team, but he might surprise you. You need pitchers like this toward the end of your staff. He doesn’t really hurt your e.r.a., has a solid whip, a chance to improve his wins this year as well as his e.r.a. I see some improvement here. You hope his whip stays the same, if it’s better this year than last, then you’ve got a real gem as your 5th or 6th pitcher.
18. Jordan Zimmerman - Current ADP - 535.50 - Sure to drop 200 spots by draft time if the skipper puts him in the rotation. 22 years old, solid numbers in AA. The guy is absolutely tearing it up in spring training. 12 1/3 innings - 6 hits - 2 walks -16 K‘s, e.r.a. 0.00. Ok, it’s spring training, you don’t want to get carried away here. Chances are he doesn’t make the rotation. But if he does, he could be one to take a closer look at.
19. Clay Bucholz - Current ADP - 330.67 - I love post-hype players. Imagine if this guy had no major league service, you just see this kid with all this talent who’s dominating hitters in the minors. You might think, “this guy has a chance to be really special”. Then he comes to the majors and blows it. Well, calm down, he’s only 24 years old. I’ll admit, the guy wasn’t right last year. He was a totally different pitcher than the one who done so well in the minors. He has to his own admittance, put too much pressure on himself to be “perfect” feeling all the weight on his shoulders. He’s got a fastball that goes up to 97, elite curveball and changeup. Great, great stuff. He’s a right handed Cole Hamels, many similarities, except Clay has a better fastball and showed better control in the minors than Cole ever did. He also has shown a better track record health-wise (Hamels' shoulder is bothering him again). Really, the best comparison for Bucholz’ minor league numbers is Jake Peavy. If he relaxes a bit like he’s shown this spring, then he might be able to translate that minor league success to the majors. Sure, he’ll probably get sent down initially, but it should be no time until he gets brought back up. This could be the last year you get him after the 10th round if he pitches the way he should. I don’t consider him a sleeper as everyone knows about him. It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when and I think this is as good a year as any to invest. Buy low/sell high. You’ll be happy you did.
20. Todd Wellemeyer - Current ADP - 316.33 - Why is he getting taken so late? He’s 31 years old and just had his first big league season. But it didn’t exactly come out of nowhere. In 2007 he showed very similar peripherals across the board, but most as a relief pitcher. Just another example of a middle reliever that makes a nice transition to starting. Hey, he’s boring to draft, he doesn’t really have more upside than he showed last year. But, he did improve in the 2nd half, he had 2 really bad months in June and July, but other than that he was very good, showing a great e.r.a. and whip with decent K's. Makes me think there’s something there. I like him.
21. David Purcey - Current ADP 378.17 - Nice strikeout potential, #3 starter for the Blue Jays. Really, never showed anything in the minors until 2008, which makes me question a little bit how good he actually is. But if his AAA numbers were a sign of him breaking out, then he might be that 180+ K winner you’ve been looking for in the later rounds. I’m not as sold on him as many, but he’s worth looking at.
22. Jo-Jo Reyes - He clearly has not done anything in the majors to warrant too much attention. He’s still very young, 24, has some talent, has done well in the minors but he’s still struggling in the majors. I’m not saying I would draft him, but I see him possibly breaking out a little bit in the next couple years if he gets more comfortable.
23. Jonathan Sanchez - Current ADP - 265.50 - I hate putting him on here because I got into it with Roundtrippers last year when I said, “enjoy his 2nd half” (after he outbid me for him...jealousy) and then preceded to have a 7.47 e.r.a. 1.66 whip. I did predict during the all-star break he’d end up with “4.50 e.r.a. and 1.40 whip”. I was wrong, he was much worse. He is as much intriguing as he is scary to have on my team. He has struggled mightily with his control. Last year was so erratic. The first half was great. But really, he had 3 great months and 3 months that could drop your team 3 spots in the standings. One thing that I like about him this year is that he has a mentor in Randy Johnson to help him along. I’m not saying I’d draft him, he still scares me, but if I need K’s desperately late (which I try never to be in that situation) then you gotta think this guy has an easy chance at 200K’s if he stays healthy. If he can possibly get that e.r.a. in the high 3’s or really low 4’s, and bring that whip into the 1.35 area, then those dominant K’s will be worth it. But I’m still on the fence with this one. Proceed with caution.
24. Neftali Feliz - Only 20 years old, he’s one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball. You might have to sit on him for half the season, but he might be worth it.
25. Johnny Cueto - I like him enough to where I don’t want to talk too much about him.
Honorable mention goes to Nick Adenhart, Chad Billingsley, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Andrew Miller, Edinson Volquez and Jason Schitt.