Elvis Andrus

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu Mar 26, 2009 11:20 pm

Originally posted by The Phoenix:

I just find some of the "once in a lifetime" arguments to be specious reasoning. i'd go as far to say "once in the history of mlb" and u know what, the FACTS would support me.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Fri Mar 27, 2009 12:22 am

Originally posted by The Phoenix:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

do you really think the odds are with him?

What are the odds he has a similar season to Delino?

2 in 100?

This is probably a horrible analogy. You buy 2 scratchers at 12-1 to win cash. You win cash with the first scratcher, do you expect the odds to change with the 2nd?

Crazy,

No, I do not think the odds are with him. I'm not really interested in Andrus unless it's for a Reserve. I just find some of the "once in a lifetime" arguments to be specious reasoning. I didn't really "look back 19 years" to find DeShields. He was the first comp player I thought of. I was playing Rotisserie (oops, Fantasy) Baseball back then.

Some other, not so great, MI comps:

AB= Major League exp.

Min AB= Minor League exp.

(Some of the Minor League AB are low because the players were out of the collegiate ranks)

code: Player---------- Year Ag SB AB Min AB

Elvis Andrus---- 2009 20 ?? 0 1598

Robbie Alomar--- 1988 20 24 0 1475

Delino Deshields 1990 21 42 0 1155

Luis Rivas------ 2001 21 31 58 2095

Steve Sax------- 1982 22 49 119 1532

Chuck Knoblauch- 1991 22 25 0 705

Rafael Furcal--- 2000 22 40 0 987

Jimmy Rollins--- 2001 22 46 53 2242

Hanley Ramirez-- 2006 22 51 2 1536

Juan Samuel----- 1984 23 72 65 1714

Ozzie Smith----- 1978 23 40 0 287[/QUOTE]Average Age= 21.8 (Andrus- 20)

Average SB= 42 (Andrus- ??)

Average prior Major League AB= 29.7 (Andrus- 0)

Average Minor League AB= 1372.8 (Andrus- 1598)

Is Andrus' profile so dramatically disparate that getting 30 SB is to be compared with a lightning strike?

I stretched the rules a bit by adding 2B. However, I left out the MANY Outfielders that would have large SB totals because playing SS will be more demanding.

And yes, your analogy was not good because it's flies in the face of everything that projection theory is attempting to do. Once you find the profile of 1 "scratch off ticket" player....try to find another. [/QUOTE]Best argument yet. Really helps put "experience", which is much more important, above "age". This is more than enough successful cases from the challenging infield positons.

I am still a Missouri/Missouri, but as we all know, numbers don't lie...right Dan?

Jim Young · Post by **Jim Young** » Fri Mar 27, 2009 1:05 am

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

I can see the point about Elvis. He could be sent down to Tupelo or Memphis. But Young is staying at 3rd base. His range has gotten continually worse. He's a gamer and would go back if asked, but I don't think the Rangers will be asking.

They can take a hit offensively for the range at ss. I think they'll give Elvis every chance, even if he does hit .220. I see him benched on a lot of fantasy teams before the Rangers do the same. I don't think Young at 3rd base is set in stone. That's what they're going with right now. I remember everyone getting their panties in a twist last year when Piniella was talking about Soriano hitting 3rd and you know how long that lasted.

If Andrus does end up struggling (.220) or .190, they will send him down to get more experience. And they certainly would not go more than two months if he's hitting near the Mendoza Line.

I don't think there's been too many 20 year olds you can point to and say, "that guy is ready for the show". I also don't think you can take his numbers in AA and somehow translate them into major league numbers such as .270-10-60-45 steals. I have seen projections like this and I shake my head. The majors is a totally different environment, the pressure is ten-fold, and the pitching is so much more advanced.

People can disagree with me if they want, the odds are hugely stacked against this guy for playing a full season in the majors, let alone producing anything remotely helpful to a fantasy team.

I would much rather draft an Eric Young Jr. in the 30th who is 23 years old, and even starting the year in AAA I believe will end up more helpful to fantasy owners this year. We'll see.

I'm really surprised this thread is so long.

Why all the interest in such a longshot?

Geez. I'd rather talk about Aaron Hill who's actually done something before. [/QUOTE]crazy - moving a guy around in the batting order, whether it is from the leadoff spot to the 3-hole or the 6-hole to the 2-hole, is VERY DIFFERENT from moving a gut to another defensive position. i don't think it's fair to even raise this comparison. it is a lot more difficult to learn how to play a defensive position that you haven't played before.

also, as for all of the "once in a lifetime" stuff that many of the people are posting on here......just remember, there is a 1st time for everything....

Last time I checked, no one thought that.....

the Red Sox would come back down from 3-0 in the ALCS, to beat the Yanks and then go on to win the Series for the first time in 80 plus years....

Josh Hamilton, a former top draft pick and hyped prospect, would start smoking crack, injecting hereoin, and getting bar fights, pretty much ruining his career and causing most of baseball to give up on him. then, go to rehab, find jesus christ, and make it all the way back to the bigs to become a dominant offensive force that threw up like 28 HR in the 1st round of the HR derby last year....

George Mason, an 11 seed, would go on an incredible run in the 2006 NCAA tournament and beat Michigan State (6), UNC (3), Wichita St (7), and UCONN (1), and make it all the way to the Final 4....

those are just a few, and there are a million more examples of things happening that no one expected.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Mar 27, 2009 1:23 am

Missouri/Missouri would have me not drafting Elvis this year or next. For me, that sounds like the high road. At best, he'll be a Judy, at worst, he'll be Miguel Cairo and end up in the Dump.

I do agree with Lance's post, some of these posts look downright ugly.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Fri Mar 27, 2009 2:13 am

Here's how I see Andrus owners: They are in the middle of the ocean in a rowboat. They see sunny skies and calm waters ahead. Unfortunately, while enjoying their environment, they fail to notice a hole the size of a baseball in the bottom of the boat and water is beginning to pour in. While trying to bucket water out of the boat, Andrus owners happen to notice a few shark fins circling the boat.

After realizing water is pouring in quicker than they can bucket it out, they pin their hopes on trying to plug the hole with a piece of bubble gum they were chewing on. And with that, we all know how the story ends...

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Fri Mar 27, 2009 3:54 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

Here's how I see Andrus owners: They are in the middle of the ocean in a rowboat. They see sunny skies and calm waters ahead. Unfortunately, while enjoying their environment, they fail to notice a hole the size of a baseball in the bottom of the boat and water is beginning to pour in. While trying to bucket water out of the boat, Andrus owners happen to notice a few shark fins circling the boat.

After realizing water is pouring in quicker than they can bucket it out, they pin their hopes on trying to plug the hole with a piece of bubble gum they were chewing on. And with that, we all know how the story ends... Meanwhile, the non-Andrus owners noticed the hole BEFORE they went into the water, thereby selecting another one.

I see the reason why an owner might take a chance on Andrus, but from what I've seen, he was being selected in the middle round ......waaaay to early. He has to provide full value for where you drafted him. You could've drafted consistent stats instead and then selected an Erick Aybar or Manny Burriss 10 rounds later.

BTW, I don't think he gets demoted, regardless of how bad he bats.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Fri Mar 27, 2009 4:10 am

not an elvis guy- and i know this has NEVER happened with a latin ballplayer- but with all the historiccal comps to a 20 year old- what happens if he is really 24?

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Fri Mar 27, 2009 4:11 am

Elvis went right in front of Orlando Cabrera in the ultimate in round 17.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Fri Mar 27, 2009 4:19 am

Originally posted by headhunters:

not an elvis guy- and i know this has NEVER happened with a latin ballplayer- but with all the historiccal comps to a 20 year old- what happens if he is really 24? that would mean his minor league numbers REALLY stunk. either way DOA

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Mar 27, 2009 5:13 am

Lots of Suspicious minds surrounding Elvis.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Fri Mar 27, 2009 5:51 am

Originally posted by Jim Young:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

I can see the point about Elvis. He could be sent down to Tupelo or Memphis. But Young is staying at 3rd base. His range has gotten continually worse. He's a gamer and would go back if asked, but I don't think the Rangers will be asking.

They can take a hit offensively for the range at ss. I think they'll give Elvis every chance, even if he does hit .220. I see him benched on a lot of fantasy teams before the Rangers do the same. I don't think Young at 3rd base is set in stone. That's what they're going with right now. I remember everyone getting their panties in a twist last year when Piniella was talking about Soriano hitting 3rd and you know how long that lasted.

If Andrus does end up struggling (.220) or .190, they will send him down to get more experience. And they certainly would not go more than two months if he's hitting near the Mendoza Line.

I don't think there's been too many 20 year olds you can point to and say, "that guy is ready for the show". I also don't think you can take his numbers in AA and somehow translate them into major league numbers such as .270-10-60-45 steals. I have seen projections like this and I shake my head. The majors is a totally different environment, the pressure is ten-fold, and the pitching is so much more advanced.

People can disagree with me if they want, the odds are hugely stacked against this guy for playing a full season in the majors, let alone producing anything remotely helpful to a fantasy team.

I would much rather draft an Eric Young Jr. in the 30th who is 23 years old, and even starting the year in AAA I believe will end up more helpful to fantasy owners this year. We'll see.

I'm really surprised this thread is so long.

Why all the interest in such a longshot?

Geez. I'd rather talk about Aaron Hill who's actually done something before. [/QUOTE]crazy - moving a guy around in the batting order, whether it is from the leadoff spot to the 3-hole or the 6-hole to the 2-hole, is VERY DIFFERENT from moving a gut to another defensive position. i don't think it's fair to even raise this comparison. it is a lot more difficult to learn how to play a defensive position that you haven't played before.

also, as for all of the "once in a lifetime" stuff that many of the people are posting on here......just remember, there is a 1st time for everything....

Last time I checked, no one thought that.....

the Red Sox would come back down from 3-0 in the ALCS, to beat the Yanks and then go on to win the Series for the first time in 80 plus years....

Josh Hamilton, a former top draft pick and hyped prospect, would start smoking crack, injecting hereoin, and getting bar fights, pretty much ruining his career and causing most of baseball to give up on him. then, go to rehab, find jesus christ, and make it all the way back to the bigs to become a dominant offensive force that threw up like 28 HR in the 1st round of the HR derby last year....

George Mason, an 11 seed, would go on an incredible run in the 2006 NCAA tournament and beat Michigan State (6), UNC (3), Wichita St (7), and UCONN (1), and make it all the way to the Final 4....

those are just a few, and there are a million more examples of things happening that no one expected. [/QUOTE]That's a good point Jim Young. That's the greatest part about baseball, anything can happen.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Mar 27, 2009 5:55 am

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by Jim Young:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

I can see the point about Elvis. He could be sent down to Tupelo or Memphis. But Young is staying at 3rd base. His range has gotten continually worse. He's a gamer and would go back if asked, but I don't think the Rangers will be asking.

They can take a hit offensively for the range at ss. I think they'll give Elvis every chance, even if he does hit .220. I see him benched on a lot of fantasy teams before the Rangers do the same. I don't think Young at 3rd base is set in stone. That's what they're going with right now. I remember everyone getting their panties in a twist last year when Piniella was talking about Soriano hitting 3rd and you know how long that lasted.

If Andrus does end up struggling (.220) or .190, they will send him down to get more experience. And they certainly would not go more than two months if he's hitting near the Mendoza Line.

I don't think there's been too many 20 year olds you can point to and say, "that guy is ready for the show". I also don't think you can take his numbers in AA and somehow translate them into major league numbers such as .270-10-60-45 steals. I have seen projections like this and I shake my head. The majors is a totally different environment, the pressure is ten-fold, and the pitching is so much more advanced.

People can disagree with me if they want, the odds are hugely stacked against this guy for playing a full season in the majors, let alone producing anything remotely helpful to a fantasy team.

I would much rather draft an Eric Young Jr. in the 30th who is 23 years old, and even starting the year in AAA I believe will end up more helpful to fantasy owners this year. We'll see.

I'm really surprised this thread is so long.

Why all the interest in such a longshot?

Geez. I'd rather talk about Aaron Hill who's actually done something before. [/QUOTE]crazy - moving a guy around in the batting order, whether it is from the leadoff spot to the 3-hole or the 6-hole to the 2-hole, is VERY DIFFERENT from moving a gut to another defensive position. i don't think it's fair to even raise this comparison. it is a lot more difficult to learn how to play a defensive position that you haven't played before.

also, as for all of the "once in a lifetime" stuff that many of the people are posting on here......just remember, there is a 1st time for everything....

Last time I checked, no one thought that.....

the Red Sox would come back down from 3-0 in the ALCS, to beat the Yanks and then go on to win the Series for the first time in 80 plus years....

Josh Hamilton, a former top draft pick and hyped prospect, would start smoking crack, injecting hereoin, and getting bar fights, pretty much ruining his career and causing most of baseball to give up on him. then, go to rehab, find jesus christ, and make it all the way back to the bigs to become a dominant offensive force that threw up like 28 HR in the 1st round of the HR derby last year....

George Mason, an 11 seed, would go on an incredible run in the 2006 NCAA tournament and beat Michigan State (6), UNC (3), Wichita St (7), and UCONN (1), and make it all the way to the Final 4....

those are just a few, and there are a million more examples of things happening that no one expected. [/QUOTE]That's a good point Jim Young. That's the greatest part about baseball, anything can happen. [/QUOTE]And also why lotto's are so popular

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Fri Mar 27, 2009 7:51 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by Jim Young:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

I can see the point about Elvis. He could be sent down to Tupelo or Memphis. But Young is staying at 3rd base. His range has gotten continually worse. He's a gamer and would go back if asked, but I don't think the Rangers will be asking.

They can take a hit offensively for the range at ss. I think they'll give Elvis every chance, even if he does hit .220. I see him benched on a lot of fantasy teams before the Rangers do the same. I don't think Young at 3rd base is set in stone. That's what they're going with right now. I remember everyone getting their panties in a twist last year when Piniella was talking about Soriano hitting 3rd and you know how long that lasted.

If Andrus does end up struggling (.220) or .190, they will send him down to get more experience. And they certainly would not go more than two months if he's hitting near the Mendoza Line.

I don't think there's been too many 20 year olds you can point to and say, "that guy is ready for the show". I also don't think you can take his numbers in AA and somehow translate them into major league numbers such as .270-10-60-45 steals. I have seen projections like this and I shake my head. The majors is a totally different environment, the pressure is ten-fold, and the pitching is so much more advanced.

People can disagree with me if they want, the odds are hugely stacked against this guy for playing a full season in the majors, let alone producing anything remotely helpful to a fantasy team.

I would much rather draft an Eric Young Jr. in the 30th who is 23 years old, and even starting the year in AAA I believe will end up more helpful to fantasy owners this year. We'll see.

I'm really surprised this thread is so long.

Why all the interest in such a longshot?

Geez. I'd rather talk about Aaron Hill who's actually done something before. [/QUOTE]crazy - moving a guy around in the batting order, whether it is from the leadoff spot to the 3-hole or the 6-hole to the 2-hole, is VERY DIFFERENT from moving a gut to another defensive position. i don't think it's fair to even raise this comparison. it is a lot more difficult to learn how to play a defensive position that you haven't played before.

also, as for all of the "once in a lifetime" stuff that many of the people are posting on here......just remember, there is a 1st time for everything....

Last time I checked, no one thought that.....

the Red Sox would come back down from 3-0 in the ALCS, to beat the Yanks and then go on to win the Series for the first time in 80 plus years....

Josh Hamilton, a former top draft pick and hyped prospect, would start smoking crack, injecting hereoin, and getting bar fights, pretty much ruining his career and causing most of baseball to give up on him. then, go to rehab, find jesus christ, and make it all the way back to the bigs to become a dominant offensive force that threw up like 28 HR in the 1st round of the HR derby last year....

George Mason, an 11 seed, would go on an incredible run in the 2006 NCAA tournament and beat Michigan State (6), UNC (3), Wichita St (7), and UCONN (1), and make it all the way to the Final 4....

those are just a few, and there are a million more examples of things happening that no one expected. [/QUOTE]That's a good point Jim Young. That's the greatest part about baseball, anything can happen. [/QUOTE]And also why lotto's are so popular

[/QUOTE]The lottery is generally for people who are really bad at math.

The Mighty Men · Post by **The Mighty Men** » Wed Jun 03, 2009 2:53 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

andrus groupies feel free to answer any time you are ready...

in the last let's say 10 years...how many shortstops have made it at the big league level at THE AGE OF 20. now tell me how many of them stole 30+ bases. UH OH!!!!

9 steals, and coming on strong, Gekko!!!

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Wed Jun 03, 2009 2:54 pm

Originally posted by The Mighty Men:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

andrus groupies feel free to answer any time you are ready...

in the last let's say 10 years...how many shortstops have made it at the big league level at THE AGE OF 20. now tell me how many of them stole 30+ bases. UH OH!!!!

9 steals, and coming on strong, Gekko!!! [/QUOTE]HISTORY SAYS NO GOOD. SORRY!

I play the odds, and the odds are clearly in my favor.

[ June 03, 2009, 08:55 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko II ]

Mithrophon · Post by **Mithrophon** » Wed Jun 03, 2009 3:08 pm

He might steal 30 bases this season, but he's got a 17-for-100 streak coming up that'll truly suck.

I'm rooting against this guy anyway. We almost drafted him late, then decided to go with Brandon Wood instead. To keep Brandon Wood in a roster crunch at the end of April, because we just KNEW he'd get playing time soon, we cut Juan Pierre (who we'd been holding patiently since draft day waiting for a Dodger injury). One week later, BAM, Manny's out. We bid $303 for Pierre and lose him by $60, not even close.

All because of stupid Elvis Andrus.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Wed Jun 03, 2009 4:58 pm

Originally posted by Mithrophon:

He might steal 30 bases this season, but he's got a 17-for-100 streak coming up that'll truly suck. anyone can go 17-100, but's he's striking out only 1-7.5 AB's...and in that lineup and park...

In May, it was 1/9ab and he hit .303

He's just starting to get the green light for more SB's..

His fielding is major reason why TEX is in first.

Every time it looks like he might go into a slump, he has a good game.

GG just didn't have the right scout on this one. A rare miss, but a miss it is.