Closers and Catchers - The history

SlimShady · Post by **SlimShady** » Wed May 06, 2009 8:35 am

Although I am listed as a "Junior" member, since this is my first year in the NFBC, I have been involved in Fantasy/Rotisserie baseball before the internet was even invented, after hearing a commercial on WFAN in New York in the mid 1980s. I have won hundreds of leagues and I am very excited to be involved with the best of the best this year. One thing has not changed through the years, closers and catchers are ALWAYS drafted too early, either get hurt or replaced, and are so inconsistant, year after year, it is astonishing. But still, ever year, the top closers of the previous season, will be drafted in the top few rounds (even though they help you in 1 category) and the top catchers as well. Yet, other than the great Mariano and a handful of others, you can count on very few to have consistant years. Every year, at the end of the draft or auction, there is a bargain basement catcher and closer available that will have similar numbers than the earlier round picks. Ironically, this year, the catcher picks of the year will be Ivan Rodriguez, who in the past was drafted way too early. And, the closer picks of the year are Heath Bell and Troy Percival. All could have been picked up very late in the draft, along with your 5th string outfielder or 7th string pitcher, yet there was little doubt that all had their positions well wrapped up. They aren't the only ones. There are many, and there will be many more, every year, more than any other positions. It's great to be involved with the NFBC, and hopefully many years to come (money permitting). Good luck ALL!

Dirt Dogs · Post by **Dirt Dogs** » Wed May 06, 2009 8:50 am

Troy Percival

He's not a DL trip waiting to happen!

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Wed May 06, 2009 9:32 am

Originally posted by alang:

Every year, at the end of the draft or auction, there is a bargain basement catcher and closer available that will have similar numbers than the earlier round picks. welcome to the NFBC!

on top of your "examples", they are many other bargain basements who are DOGS. as always, the trick is to get the right players, regardless of position.

ask owners of matt capps, lyon, lindstrom, etc.. how they like waiting.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed May 06, 2009 9:38 am

Originally posted by alang:

Every year, at the end of the draft or auction, there is a bargain basement catcher and closer available that will have similar numbers than the earlier round picks. And, the closer picks of the year are Heath Bell and Troy Percival. All could have been picked up very late in the draft, along with your 5th string outfielder or 7th string pitcher, yet there was little doubt that all had their positions well wrapped up. Welcome aboard...always glad to get some "new" blood.

BTW, exactly how late did someone get Heath Bell in your draft? He went in the 11th in mine.

Dirt Dogs · Post by **Dirt Dogs** » Wed May 06, 2009 9:50 am

Ask broxton owners how they feel about taking him early.

3 Wins

8 Saves

Awesome K, ERA, Whip

It's all how you plan your draft, and at what point they bring you value. It's not every draft you can plan on a Ryan Franklin in the 20's because if you dont have them kiss the overall goodbye! and nothing is worse than leaving a draft without two game day closers.

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Wed May 06, 2009 9:54 am

are you kidding? there is nothing like leaving the draft with 1 1/4 closers, having the 1/4 closer have his wheels fall off, and then having to bid copious $$$ on guys like hawkins, etc.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed May 06, 2009 11:06 am

Originally posted by alang:

in the mid 1980s. I have won hundreds of leagues Let me be the first to give you a little crap

That would be 8 leagues a year won for 25 years straight and that is just if the hundreds meant 200.

I bow to your greatness.

Welcome!

[ May 06, 2009, 05:23 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed May 06, 2009 11:30 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by alang:

in the mid 1980s. I have won hundreds of leagues Let me be the first to give you a little crap

That would be 8 leagues a year won for 25 years straight and that is just if the hundreds meant 200.

I bow to your greatness.

Welcome! [/QUOTE]Who said you weren't a big math guy?

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed May 06, 2009 11:36 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by alang:

in the mid 1980s. I have won hundreds of leagues Let me be the first to give you a little crap

That would be 8 leagues a year won for 25 years straight and that is just if the hundreds meant 200.

I bow to your greatness.

Welcome! [/QUOTE]Who said you weren't a big math guy? [/QUOTE]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed May 06, 2009 11:44 am

Yeah, you just need to pick the right ones. Why don't you share with us the late round catchers and closers you picked and what rounds they came in? I drafted Ziegler and Flores, but that was a process of identifying the right guys and taking them at the right point and then matching them up with other guys that came much earlier. You don't just draft a team and pick those positions at the end and everything works out.

And all that said, there is no guarantee they will continue to work out. Percival? Are you kidding me? First of all he has almost the same number of walks and strikeouts, and somehow it manages not to be a good number of either.

Second, I'll share an anecdote. Last year I was at an A's-Rays game (it was a Thursday; you can look it up) with a less knowledgeable friend. Percival came in and he said, "How's this guy?"

I said, "He'll probably get a couple outs and then go on the DL." Guess what happened. I wouldn't be celebrating my May through September saves quite yet.

SlimShady · Post by **SlimShady** » Thu May 07, 2009 5:56 am

Wow, you guys are a tough crowd. My point wasn't to draft closers and catchers at the end of the draft all of the time. It was the fact that you can ALWAYS and I mean ALWAYS get a closer, either late in drafts or in the FA market, who will perform nearly as well as the top closers in your leagues, more than any other position by far, due to volatility. Sure it's a crapshoot. Later round catchers are frequently as good as early round catchers, due to injury or bad performance, almost on a yearly basis. As far as Percival, there was not a more consistant closer in MLB other than Mariano, when he was with the Angels. He had a few years of injury, then he had 28 saves again last year and will have that or more this year for a good team. Its not like he has never done it before. 22nd round in my league for Percival, 14th round for Bell. Not saying this is the norm, so please stop picking apart my point. I was just saying, closers and catchers are positions that are often drafted too early. And also, let me retract my statement of winning "hundreds" of leagues. I have won at least two leagues every year since I started doing this. I am in about 10 every year. So, I have won around 50 leagues. (for you mathematicians, and obviously we have a couple, I have "been involved in" hundreds of leagues) BUT, none were the NFBC, so it begins now. Once again, good luck all.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu May 07, 2009 6:31 am

Yes, they will ALWAYS be available.

But will you ALWAYS be in the position to take the right one? Will he ALWAYS make it to your pick?

Big difference.

SlimShady · Post by **SlimShady** » Thu May 07, 2009 6:46 am

Sure, but I would rather draft an upper tier OF or SP than draft a top closer in the 4th round. Just my opinion. I am not a professional. I am just displaying my opinion. Get closers later in the draft, maybe draft 3 instead of 2, hopefully 2 of the 3 work out. Then pick up some saves in FA. It's one frickin category.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu May 07, 2009 6:54 am

Originally posted by alang:

Sure, but I would rather draft an upper tier OF or SP than draft a top closer in the 4th round. you mean like manny or webb?

billywaz · Post by **billywaz** » Thu May 07, 2009 7:03 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by alang:

Sure, but I would rather draft an upper tier OF or SP than draft a top closer in the 4th round. you mean like manny or webb?

[/QUOTE]I'm thinking Papelbon, K-Rod, and Broxton owners are pretty happy with their choice right now!

billywaz · Post by **billywaz** » Thu May 07, 2009 7:07 am

Originally posted by alang:

Then pick up some saves in FA. It's one frickin category. I've never bought into this. GOOD closers get saves, but they also....

1) Reduce your ERA AND WHIP. And more importantly...

2) Don't force you to start a Wang or Arroyo (or any other sad starting pitcher) to try and get extra wins and K's when all they do is blow up your ERA and WHIP.

That being said, I left the draft with Hanrahan, Lyon, Rodney, and Villanueva as my closers.

Lesson learned.

[ May 07, 2009, 01:08 PM: Message edited by: billywaz ]

Cooperstown · Post by **Cooperstown** » Thu May 07, 2009 7:18 am

And then you add the fact that you have to tie up valuable bench space holding your late round CL's in case they come back and hanging on to later round potential CL's in case they get the job.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Thu May 07, 2009 7:20 am

You either sacrifice up to round 11 or try to thread the needle from 12 on.

If you carpet bomb with MM on draft day your team will have have no depth and holes.

If you thread the needle and miss.. oofah, you will drain your budget very fast and or blow out your reserve roster hosting MM tics.

%*&%$#! Closers. Good freakin luck

[ May 07, 2009, 01:21 PM: Message edited by: Quahogs ]

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu May 07, 2009 7:43 am

billywaz - next year grab two bona fide closers before round 7 and you'll be set!

billywaz · Post by **billywaz** » Thu May 07, 2009 7:49 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

billywaz - next year grab two bona fide closers before round 7 and you'll be set! If there is a next year!

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu May 07, 2009 8:02 am

Originally posted by billywaz:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

billywaz - next year grab two bona fide closers before round 7 and you'll be set! If there is a next year!

[/QUOTE]how many times have you "quit" baseball this year already?

SlimShady · Post by **SlimShady** » Thu May 07, 2009 8:28 am

Closers dont really help you in WHIP or ERA. They dont pitch enough innings. They could hurt you if they are bad, but all closers can do that, including last year's best, Brad Lidge. Closers are a crapshoot, but draft them early all you want.

My closers from the NFBC draft:

Motte - Bust so far

M. Gonzalez - Good so far, but injury prone

T. Percvial - Good so far

My FA closer pickup - J. Beimel - Who knows?

But, there will be others.

There are currently 16 closers that are currently in the position, that were closing at this time last year. 7 from two years ago. That's a huge turnover.

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Thu May 07, 2009 11:34 am

While I agree with your point for the most part, as someone who waited on closers this year and got caught at the end of a run, let me play devil's advocate a bit...

According to ADPs, the mid-range closers (Bell, Qualls, Lindstrom, Wilson, Francisco, etc) were going in rounds 10-11 pretty much... so I waited until round 10 to take my first one.. well, in round 9 a MASSIVE run started, and the BEST available closer at my 10th round pick was Hanrahan... just awful. I saw guys getting Heath Bell in the 11th in other leagues and cried. My 2nd closer was Percival in the 18th round, which has ended up being a coupe thus far... and I also drafted Franklin in the 25th round, only to drop him the week he became the closer (might end up costing me some BIG money)...

Basically, what I learned was you NEED to get that 1st closer early-ish. I'm not saying use a round 1-7 pick on one, but around the 8-9th rounds, look for a solid closer (like Jenks/Broxton/Capps this year) and then find a 2nd bargain closer later... that way if you get caught in a run, you aren't completely screwed, needing to get TWO closers still... because we're all competing for the $100,000 and in order to win that, you HAVE to get saves... if you punt any category, you're not going to win the overall. That's my current problem... no saves. Percival is my only legit closer (that is SCARY).. but I picked up Nunez, Beimel, and Madson, so hopefully at least one or two of them gets me saves at some point this year.

As for catchers, when you need to take TWO, you cannot take 2 crappy catchers in the late rounds and expect to have a great team (in my opinion). Now, this doesn't mean use a top 3 round pick on one, but for me, if I could get Victor Martinez in the 5th round or so, I'm taking him (and I did). He's the only catcher who plays every day, hits cleanup (or 3rd), and gives you power AND average... and he has been worth every penny at that position. I was SHOCKED that people rated Soto above him... seemed so silly to me... the guy is hitting 7th (and not playing every day) and has ONE year of solid production under his belt.. I just didn't get it. So I like to take one top catcher, and one semi-bargain catcher... a solid guy who will get you some HR, R, and RBI.. like Pierzynski, Baker, etc.. someone after round 15... unless a Napoli or Iannetta falls to you in the 11-12 round range or so...

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Thu May 07, 2009 11:46 am

Originally posted by Less than Dave:

While I agree with your point for the most part, as someone who waited on closers this year and got caught at the end of a run, let me play devil's advocate a bit...

According to ADPs, the mid-range closers (Bell, Qualls, Lindstrom, Wilson, Francisco, etc) were going in rounds 10-11 pretty much... so I waited until round 10 to take my first one.. well, in round 9 a MASSIVE run started, and the BEST available closer at my 10th round pick was Hanrahan... just awful. I saw guys getting Heath Bell in the 11th in other leagues and cried. My 2nd closer was Percival in the 18th round, which has ended up being a coupe thus far... and I also drafted Franklin in the 25th round, only to drop him the week he became the closer (might end up costing me some BIG money)...

Basically, what I learned was you NEED to get that 1st closer early-ish. I'm not saying use a round 1-7 pick on one, but around the 8-9th rounds, look for a solid closer (like Jenks/Broxton/Capps this year) and then find a 2nd bargain closer later... that way if you get caught in a run, you aren't completely screwed, needing to get TWO closers still... because we're all competing for the $100,000 and in order to win that, you HAVE to get saves... if you punt any category, you're not going to win the overall. That's my current problem... no saves. Percival is my only legit closer (that is SCARY).. but I picked up Nunez, Beimel, and Madson, so hopefully at least one or two of them gets me saves at some point this year.

As for catchers, when you need to take TWO, you cannot take 2 crappy catchers in the late rounds and expect to have a great team (in my opinion). Now, this doesn't mean use a top 3 round pick on one, but for me, if I could get Victor Martinez in the 5th round or so, I'm taking him (and I did). He's the only catcher who plays every day, hits cleanup (or 3rd), and gives you power AND average... and he has been worth every penny at that position. I was SHOCKED that people rated Soto above him... seemed so silly to me... the guy is hitting 7th (and not playing every day) and has ONE year of solid production under his belt.. I just didn't get it. So I like to take one top catcher, and one semi-bargain catcher... a solid guy who will get you some HR, R, and RBI.. like Pierzynski, Baker, etc.. someone after round 15... unless a Napoli or Iannetta falls to you in the 11-12 round range or so... I'm right there with you regarding V-mart. 550 at-bats gives you about 100 more at-bats than the next guy. Throw in slot in batting order, nice park, nice hitters around him combined with dominant track record (save last year). He also can DH, play first giving his knees a break. He was the best catcher in the draft. Also, some of the other top catchers had some things against them, Soto (youth and lack of long track record), Torre said he was going to sit Martin more often this year, Mauer hurt. For McCann, I think people wrote down .300 for projections but didn't take the .270 he hit just 2 years ago into consideration.

V-mart had the longer track record, more consistent than any other catcher. He's streaky as hell within a season, but his season ending stats are always there, more than anybody elses.

Totally offsubject Less than Dave, what's your perspective on LaPorta? Do you think he's in a tough position to succeed right now with pressure from Francisco and company as well as Hafner coming back. I fear he's got too much pressure to succeed. If he had the outfield position without the competition it's better for him. But right now he might have to stay relatively consistent (tough for a young player) to remain up with the team.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu May 07, 2009 11:50 am

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

For McCann, I think people wrote down .300 for projections but didn't take the .270 he hit just 2 years ago into consideration.

crazy - while you have some good ideas about players, you also have some really bad ones