Closers and Catchers - The history

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Fri May 08, 2009 3:52 am

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by rkulaski:

I don't get the proof in the pudding thing...

AVG- they are both proven .300 hitters. Vmart has done it 3 of the last 5 yrs (60%), Mccann 2 of the last 3 (66%). Vmart has no edge here. Has he ever hit .333? I can make arguements for McCann. His peripherals are slighltly better too. But ultimately I consider them...

EVEN

Runs- Based upon where VMart hits in the order and past stats, he would get a 10 run edge over McCann. I also thought between Shoppach and Garko that Vmart might sit an extra game a week. Obviously wrong here. But because of this reasoning in the spring, I had them even in runs scored.

HR- We agree they are even. Of course, your guy is coming off elbow surgery. Was he considered healthy in the spring? Yes. So was Hafner. Is there some amount of inherent risk that VMart could develop soreness, stiffness, more loose bodies, not have full strength and hit less HRs... yes there is that risk. So....

ADVANTAGE: McCANN!

RBIs - Again, based upon history, you may give VMart a slight edge since he's actually had a 100rbi season before. But obviously each is capable of 90rbis. There's no obvious winner here. And again, Vmart returns from injury.

ADVANTAGE: EVEN

It all came down to VMart returning from the injured elbow for me. Do I want the 10 extra runs VMart might give me if he doesn't sit too much from Shoppach/Garko AND the risk he carries heading into this year or do I want the safe sure thing from McCann? That was my thinking in March.

Not that I wouldn't have drafted VMart because I would have. BUT after McCann. Big picture, if I know VMart is his old self, he's actually the better value but I didn't know that so I stick by my rationale ranking McCann higher in March.

looks like a mistake right now

...but it's only MAY! Proof is in the pudding comment comes down to 2009 season ending stats comparison. But since McCann has missed some time it's not completely fair. It would like comparing V-mart to McCann based on last year's stats.

The difference between the two is that McCann you pay an incredible premium for, V-mart, by comparison, an incredible discount for stats that should be as good if not better than McCann's.

You do make a good point about V-mart coming back from injury adding some risk but like I said before, he was completely healthy to start the year, as was McCann.

For your sake, I hope I'm wrong. [/QUOTE]Hey I'm not sweating it. I think both catchers will have solid years when it's all said and done. And good job for you drafting vmart (i'm assuming you own him?). Got to give you credit where credit is due.

McCann- have him in 1 league-our online championship so I like the fact we're in good shape and he hasn't produced for us yet. Now stop jinxing him, crazy.

STEALS- this year- McCann 1, VMart 0.

PACE: McCann 6, VMart 0

fair point by srebro.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Fri May 08, 2009 4:19 am

To get McCann this year you had to go late 3rd round or early 4th round.I didnt like the value here .Now with Vmart your getting a value pick this year because of his injury season last year.Getting this catcher in the 5th round i thought was a good gamble.I was able to get him in one draft in the 5th round pick 4 and he's been awesome.Also picking later in the draft you probably couldnt get him unless you wanted to take him early in the 4th round.I was picking 13 in the ultimate and in the 4th roundi was able to get A Gonzalez and knew there was know way Vmart would make it to me a 5th round pick 13 and i was right as he went 5th round pick 1.What im saying is Vmart was a value pick this year and McCann you were paying a great price to get him.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Fri May 08, 2009 4:36 am

Originally posted by eddiejag:

What im saying is Vmart was a value pick this year and McCann you were paying a great price to get him. the point the vmart supporters are missing is that there was no assurance of vmart being HEALTHY AND NOT SUFFERING A RELAPSE coming off a serious injury.

sure, vmart sounds good NOW, as he seems to be healthy.

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Fri May 08, 2009 5:25 am

eddie, getting mccann in the 3rd or 4th wasn't value, but getting vmart in the 5th was? sounds like revisionist history to me.

you took vmart in the 5th, and it's worked out so far for you. but come on, let's not get too excited, 20ish games in.

SlimShady · Post by **SlimShady** » Fri May 08, 2009 9:19 am

I don't know. Reading all of the replies, no one has given a case for drafting a catcher or closer in the 3rd or 4th round. I don't care if its Papelbon, VMart, or McCann. Maybe I am wrong and maybe I will never compete with the better teams in the NFBC, but to me, it just isn't worth the risk. People who drafted VMart this year are brilliant, yet those who drafted him last year were dumb, because he got injured last year and is a stud this year? McCann was a stud last year and is hurt this year. Thus is the life as a catcher. Drafting Catchers in the 12th round or later could have got you Bengie Molina or Mike Napoli or Yadier Molina. This is not just hindsight. Its fact, every year.

As far as closers. You heard my reasoning. Whether you agree with me or not, someone please tell me another position other than starting pitchers, where 15 starters lost their jobs within one year. And the turnover rate is staggering every year. Sure, you might have to pay $150 or more for a closer during the year on free agency, but its worth it. Rather than drafting Brad Lidge in the 5th round, I would much rather draft an upper tier position player or top line starting pitcher. But, that's just me.

OK. I am going to leave it alone for now. Lets see how the season plays out. Thanks for the responses and I am happy to be in such a great competition. Everyone has their strategy. But, there is a difference between strategy and proven history.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Fri May 08, 2009 9:59 am

Here's an excerpt from an NFBC primer I wrote in March, this studies the 26 Main Even winners from last season. As one can see, there are several ways to skin the proverbial cat. I don't think it is how you do it as much as who you pick to do it.

_______________________________________

From a strategic standpoint, one of the more important considerations is when one should delve into the pitching pool. Below is a review of the top strikeout pitchers and top save gatherers of the 26 winners. The number after the name is the 2008 ADP of the hurler, to give an idea how the most successful competitors built their staffs.

Haren 66, Lilly 156, Danks 394, Maine 112, Marcum 255, Jenks 107, Rodney 400

E Santana 307, Billingsley 127, Harden 188, Beckett 66, Zambrano 86, Jenks 107, Rodney 400

Sabathia 61, E Santana 307, Buehrle 253, Pelfrey 405, Rivera 99, Jones 181, Percival 198

Greinke 210, Danks 394, Jimenez 279, Lowe 184, Arroyo 219, Wilson 197, Rivera 99

Halladay 104, Volquez 388, Cain 118, Beckett 66, Harden 188, Sheets 119, Sherrill 205, Jones 181, Rodney 400

Lincecum 118, Meche 241, Matsuzaka 82, Jurrjens 318, Lohse 412, Lidge 150, Soria 140

Lincecum 118, Greinke 210, Matsuzaka 82, Danks 394, Nathan 82, CJ Wilson 227

Lincecum 118, Oswalt 85, Greinke 210, Slowey 184, Arroyo 219, Valverde 117, Soria 140

Sabathia 61, Cueto 269, Danks 394, Harang 74, Mussina 357, Weaver 154, Nathan 82, Soria 140, Sherrill 205

Lincecum 118, Volquez 388, Beckett 66, Dempster 403, Maine 112, Soria 140, Gregg 182

Volquez 388, Cain 118, Baker 277, Lidge 150, Rivera 99

Volquez 388, Hamels 62, Cueto 269, Street 127

Sabathia 61, Kazmir 79, Jimenez 279, Buehrle 253, Lester 258, Wood 267, Jones 181

Vazquez 102, Sheets 119, Garza 248, Floyd 401, Olsen 342, Nathan 82, Gagne 168

J Santana 13, Harden 188, Oswalt 85, Mussina 357, Arroyo 219, Nathan 82, Ryan 169

Lincecum 118, Harden 188, Greinke 210, Danks 394, Baker 277, Wilson 197, Ryan 169

Sabathia 61, Lilly 156, Shields 101, Mussina 357, Hoffman 140, Jones 181, Rodney 400

E Santana 307, J Peavy 24, J Shields 101, M Garza 248, J Nathan 82, B Fuentes 379

Billingsley 127, Harden 188, Lee 400, Johnson 233, Wilson 197, Gregg 182, Torres FA

Sabathia 61, Burnett 127, Parra 266, Marmol 177, Chamberlain 182, Wilson 197, Torres FA

Hamels 62, Lee 400, Peavy 24, Slowey 184, Garza 248, F Rodriguez 74, Fuentes 379

Oswalt 85, Wolf 325, Marcum 255, Valverde 117, Sherrill 205

Greinke 210, Lilly 156, Peavy 24, Jimenez 279, Myers 116, Nolasco FA, Wilson 197, Saito 109

Billingsley 127, Harden 188, Lee 400, Shields 101, Lidge 150, Wilson 197

Cain 118, Dempster 403, Oswalt 85, Lowe 184, Cueto 269, Lidge 150, Percival 198

Billingsley 127, Hamels 62, Kazmir 79, Lackey 76, Wolf 325, Papelbon 59, Street 127

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Fri May 08, 2009 10:19 am

[QUOTE]Originally posted by ToddZ:

Here's an excerpt from an NFBC primer I wrote in March, this studies the 26 Main Even winners from last season. As one can see, there are several ways to skin the proverbial cat. I don't think it is how you do it as much as who you pick to do it.

The last 2 sentences couldn't be written any better.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Fri May 08, 2009 10:23 am

Rather than drafting Brad Lidge in the 5th round, I would much rather draft an upper tier position player or top line starting pitcher. But, that's just me. Originally posted by King of Queens:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

* The closer merry-go-round is in full effect. I wonder how many draft day closers have lost their jobs or are out with injury?1. Joakim Soria (injured?)

2. Jose Valverde (DL)

3. Jason Motte (DL)

4. B.J. Ryan (DL)

5. Joel Hanrahan (lost job)

6. Joey Devine (DL)

7. Carlos Marmol (lost job)

8. Brandon Lyon (lost job)

9. Mike Gonzalez (split job)

10. Trevor Hoffman (injured?)

11. Matt Lindstrom (injured?)

12. George Sherrill (lost job)

13. Manny Corpas (lost job)

14. Brandon Morrow (DL) [/QUOTE]How many of these guys were drafted in the fifth round? One can argue just as easily that you need a top closer so that you don't end up with these guys.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Fri May 08, 2009 12:01 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

I left out stolen base comparison for obvious reason.

crazy - the more you talk, the more i'm back tracking on you "knowing your suff". i won't go into detail about you post other than:

1. if vmart is healthy, he should have been a 3rd or 4th rounder on draft day. seeing how some people think catchers get hurt more or suffer disappoints more than other positional players, vmart starting the season trying to come back from a major injury should have been a red flag for everyone.

2. "I left out stolen base comparison for obvious reason." why would youleave it out????? vmart is a ZERO in sb. mccann is going to get 4 or 5. in terms of homeruns, 4 or 5 sb's = an EXTRA 7 to 9 hrs. AND YOU ARE DISCOUNTING ALL OF THAT?!?!?

shame on you crazy. may i suggest you going back to the drawing board with some of this stuff. to discount 4 or 5 sb from the catcher position is LuNaCy...but maybe that's why you call yourself crazy

[/QUOTE]Gekko, shame on you. You broke the cardinal rule of solid fantasy baseball thinking. You looked at last year's numbers and assume that player will duplicate those numbers without looking further. McCann had 5 steals last year, yes, but previous seasons he had 2 and zero. So arguing McCann's 162 game average of 3 (when he plays around 140 games per year is WEAK. You need to stop making your projections soley on last year's stats, it makes you look worse than you are.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Fri May 08, 2009 12:57 pm

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

Gekko, shame on you. You broke the cardinal rule of solid fantasy baseball thinking. You looked at last year's numbers and assume that player will duplicate those numbers without looking further. McCann had 5 steals last year, yes, but previous seasons he had 2 and zero. So arguing McCann's 162 game average of 3 (when he plays around 140 games per year is WEAK. You need to stop making your projections soley on last year's stats, it makes you look worse than you are. crazy - just stop please. you are casting more of a cloud on yourself with every post. please...

billywaz · Post by **billywaz** » Sat May 09, 2009 12:55 am

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

I left out stolen base comparison for obvious reason.

crazy - the more you talk, the more i'm back tracking on you "knowing your suff". i won't go into detail about you post other than:

1. if vmart is healthy, he should have been a 3rd or 4th rounder on draft day. seeing how some people think catchers get hurt more or suffer disappoints more than other positional players, vmart starting the season trying to come back from a major injury should have been a red flag for everyone.

2. "I left out stolen base comparison for obvious reason." why would youleave it out????? vmart is a ZERO in sb. mccann is going to get 4 or 5. in terms of homeruns, 4 or 5 sb's = an EXTRA 7 to 9 hrs. AND YOU ARE DISCOUNTING ALL OF THAT?!?!?

shame on you crazy. may i suggest you going back to the drawing board with some of this stuff. to discount 4 or 5 sb from the catcher position is LuNaCy...but maybe that's why you call yourself crazy

[/QUOTE]Gekko, shame on you. You broke the cardinal rule of solid fantasy baseball thinking. You looked at last year's numbers and assume that player will duplicate those numbers without looking further. McCann had 5 steals last year, yes, but previous seasons he had 2 and zero. So arguing McCann's 162 game average of 3 (when he plays around 140 games per year is WEAK. You need to stop making your projections soley on last year's stats, it makes you look worse than you are. [/QUOTE]I think something that is not being discussed here is the fact that McCann LOST 20 lbs in the offseason.

To me, losing weight makes me more fit and definitely faster. To think he would steal MORE bases (than ever before) is logical. His homers going up is debatable.

Regardless, I don't know ANYONE that would have taken V-Mart over McCann this year BEFORE the season.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Sat May 09, 2009 2:42 am

Originally posted by billywaz:

I think something that is not being discussed here is the fact that McCann LOST 20 lbs in the offseason.

To me, losing weight makes me more fit and definitely faster. To think he would steal MORE bases (than ever before) is logical. His homers going up is debatable.

billy - i was saving this for when crazy attempted another BS post about mccann.

u can ALWAYS find out the BS'ers by allowing them to hang themselves by talking too much.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sat May 09, 2009 4:35 am

BillyWaz what's up .Everytime i see you post i think football as your one of the best.Im sure you could draft today as football magazine drafts are going off now.I have a draft next week and donthave a clue. good luck.

rockitsauce · Post by **rockitsauce** » Sat May 09, 2009 5:25 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

[QUOTE]

u can ALWAYS find out the BS'ers by allowing them to hang themselves by talking too much. Look who's talking !

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sat May 09, 2009 7:15 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by billywaz:

I think something that is not being discussed here is the fact that McCann LOST 20 lbs in the offseason.

To me, losing weight makes me more fit and definitely faster. To think he would steal MORE bases (than ever before) is logical. His homers going up is debatable.

billy - i was saving this for when crazy attempted another BS post about mccann.

u can ALWAYS find out the BS'ers by allowing them to hang themselves by talking too much. [/QUOTE]I will no longer talk about McCann's stolen base potential. It's ridiculous to talk about McCann's "advantage" over V-mart based on his career high of 5 steals last year. It's a waste of my time.

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Sat May 09, 2009 7:52 am

Hmmmm.....thought the topic of this thread was on the merits of drafting catchers and/or closers early. Unfortunately, this thread was hijacked by Gekko & Crazy's personal debate between VMart & McCann, one thats kind of a ridiculous at this point and should have been made prior to the season starting.

Being new to the NFBC and 15 team leagues, I was curious to see the various viewpoints of more experienced NFBC members on whether investing early for the catcher/closer positions was a method most thought prudent or not.

I went into the Main Event draft with a strategy to wait on closers and catchers (something I've employed very successfully in past 12 team leagues)...

I left the draft with Clement & IRod as my catchers and Danks & Street as my closers. I've spent a lot of FAAB trying to improve my lot at those positions since.

I'll admit that I was unprepared to find how few options would be available in free agency.

I believe my worst pick in the entire draft was passing on Iannetta in the 11th/12th round turn even though I was all set to pick him. I've regretted that decision since. I'll only give myself a pass because it was right after the break, someone else I really wanted was taken right before I picked, and I let myself get mildly flustered....(really not a good excuse, but....)

If I could redo the draft right now, I'm not sure which strategy I would go with....but I can tell you, chasing catchers & closers all year has sucked.

Now on the VMart/McCann debate.....trade either of you John Buck for either one of them right now....deal?

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Sat May 09, 2009 7:55 am

[QUOTE]Originally posted by G-X:

[QB] I left the draft with Clement & IRod as my catchers and Danks & Street as my closers.

Before anyone corrects me....I meant to write Jenks & Street....

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Sat May 09, 2009 8:20 am

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

I will no longer talk about McCann's stolen base potential. It's ridiculous to talk about McCann's "advantage" over V-mart based on his career high of 5 steals last year. It's a waste of my time. you discounting mccann's sb potential is a waste of EVERYONE'S time!!! just shows u haven't done your homework. maybe next year when you take on the big boyz, right?

billywaz · Post by **billywaz** » Sat May 09, 2009 9:27 am

Originally posted by eddiejag:

BillyWaz what's up .Everytime i see you post i think football as your one of the best.Im sure you could draft today as football magazine drafts are going off now.I have a draft next week and donthave a clue. good luck. Eddie,

Based on the way my offense is faring in the Main, you could argue my mind WAS on football when I drafted my offensive players!

I see you are doing a great job so far in the Main....GOOD LUCK!

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat May 09, 2009 1:36 pm

Last two days since McCann went bespectacled...

Box score:

McCann 7 2 4 4, hr

VMartinez 5 0 1 0

Martinez game is still in progress as this is typed...

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Sat May 09, 2009 1:53 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Last two days since McCann went bespectacled...

Box score:

McCann 7 2 4 4, hr

VMartinez 5 0 1 0

Martinez game is still in progress as this is typed... Yeah, that sounds like a legitimate sample size....

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat May 09, 2009 2:28 pm

Originally posted by G-X:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Last two days since McCann went bespectacled...

Box score:

McCann 7 2 4 4, hr

VMartinez 5 0 1 0

Martinez game is still in progress as this is typed... Yeah, that sounds like a legitimate sample size.... [/QUOTE]Thats' my point. A month while one player is hurt is also not legit.

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Mon May 11, 2009 10:11 am

Ok well, I see we still have differing opinions, and that's cool, but I said V-Mart was the best catcher before the season, and I maintain that now... personally, I think they have very similar skill-sets (at least right now), but for me it all came down to playing time.. Victor was going to play every day (not sure if everyone else knew this, but I did) and McCann wasn't. Every report said Victor's strength was back 100%, and in addition, Victor would be 1B eligible as well. Not usually a big selling-point, but ya never know when a 1B or 3 might go down and there's a John Buck on the wire or somethin... these guys are both very close in value, but I knew McCann would go a round and a half before Victor or so, and that's why I preferred Victor... my argument was with people who drafted Soto before Victor, to me there is no legitimate argument for that. Drafting McCann before Victor is perfectly reasonable.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Mon May 11, 2009 11:10 am

Originally posted by Less than Dave:

my argument was with people who drafted Soto before Victor, to me there is no legitimate argument for that. Drafting McCann before Victor is perfectly reasonable. agreed.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Mon May 11, 2009 11:11 am

Originally posted by Less than Dave:

Every report said Victor's strength was back 100% Just like Soria's MRI came back fine...