Determining dollar values

[ToddZ]

There are several methods people use to determine dollar values, I don't think any magazine claims to use the same formula.



Quite frankly most of the methods are flawed but provide values useful enough for bidding or drafting purposes.

[Walla Walla]

They do use the same formula. $260 budget, # of players expected to post stats, and Cat would be based on a standard 5x5. Use to be 4X4.

The one thing that changes is how they think the players will perform this season. Theres no formula for that. Its educated guesses on the top value of those players. The goal in auction leagues is to get the best value for each player.

That said Todd knows best! They are a starting point but how your draft goes can change the value of players. You have to be able to adjust on the fly. Thats why auction is so much fun!

[ToddZ]

They do use the same formula. $260 budget, # of players expected to post stats, and Cat would be based on a standard 5x5. Use to be 4X4. I'd consider those same league specs or parameters. There are a few accepted formulas to convert the raw stats into a dollar value (which is best thought of as a range). The raw value (which is really just potential) doesn't change, but what you might bid to get that player changes with the ebb and flow of an auction.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Trust me, there is no formula we use to decipher these dollar values. A lot of it comes from years of being involved in auctions and knowing what people will pay for certain expectations each year. You throw that into your thinking, you throw last year's stats into your thinking, you throw this year's projections into your thinking, and you throw in injury histories and age and you come up with a dollar value that you believe that player will go for on Draft Day. If I say Derek Jeter is worth $28 in AL-only leagues and RotoTimes.com Magazine says he's worth $31, does that mean we're way off? Maybe, but it's likely their editor is projecting more stolen bases than I am. It's an inexact science.



I've participated in LABR auctions since 1994 and I've kept all auction results from the past several years, which helps me in my projections for upcoming year dollar values. Ron Shandler uses slightly different analysis. I'm sure Alex Patton, John Hunt, Nate Ravitz, Peter Schoenke and other editors use different formulas and opinions, too. It's an inexact science, but the key is to get several opinions from different magazines and online sites and then walk into Draft Day with YOUR own expected values. If you think Derek Jeter is worth $29, then keep bidding until you get to that point and then decide if you want to go higher or not. It's as easy as that.



Pre-season publications are just guides and it's up to each individual owner to pull the trigger on Draft Day.

[JerseyPaul]

Let's keep in mind there are 2 key numbers. The "true value" based on a set of projections and the "expected price". These may be quite different. It's like ADP in football versus draft rank based on your own projections.



Todd and Greg are looking at two parts of the elephant.



Todd has a sophisticated methodology to determine value based on a set of particular projections.



From what Greg said, he is concentrating on what he expects "market value" to be for each player.



The differences may be insignificant for most players but finding those players where there is divergence is key to the "draft".



Of course that level of good drafting does not come close to guaranteeing anything, as the difference between actual performance and forecasted performance will outweigh any methodology benefits. These events are won on the waiver wire.

[sportsbettingman]

C'mon Greg!



Just wanted to get in the mix...coffee buzz I guess.



Let's open this sucker up to 6x6 cats soon...adding "holds" and "total bases"...or "a category that rewards walks"...obp?. More strategies.



~Lance (bzzzzzzzzzzz)