Shandler and Joba

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Sep 18, 2009 3:35 am

Sounds like a movie, right?

No, this post is about Shandler and the wow factor of having Joba as the number one pitcher. It raised eyebrows among the fantasy public, but in the end left him with egg on his face.

Joba has a great arm to be sure. Ranking him number one in the Forecaster though was reckless and shortsighted.

Joba had not made his bones as a starting pitcher when the Forecaster was published and when the Forecaster comes out next year, that will still be the case.

Ranking Joba ahead of established starters Johan Santana and CC Sabathia and ahead of another electric arm in Lincecum drew attention, but in the end will cost him in the future.

Soon after the number one ranking was published, he lowered Joba on his online lists, but not everybody follows his online lists. The demotion on his lists came within the month of January which perpetuates the thought of ranking Joba number one exclusively for the wow factor. Afterall, what had Joba done in January to deserve a demotion on his list?

No matter the role of the player going into a season, Shandler likes to grade on the talent. I get that. Joba has talent. Too many other factors were avoided though to rank him number one.

Others will say that at least he went out on a limb or he followed his own theory an not other's, but in the end, he got it very wrong and for what looks to be for all the wrong reasons.

Shandlers Forecaster is still the standard for the industry. We as fantasy players have long memories and will now take Shandlers lists with a grain of salt. He may have sold a few extra books with his wow factor. It will come at a cost. It cost him future sales and although his book is the standard, those standards have been lowered.

Cooperstown · Post by **Cooperstown** » Fri Sep 18, 2009 3:40 am

While it's easy, I'll add no. 2.

1. Albert Pujols

2. Hanley Ramirez

3.

4.

rmurph3 · Post by **rmurph3** » Fri Sep 18, 2009 4:05 am

Allow me to take off my "stressed-out guy trying to win the NFBC overall title" hat for a minute, and put on my "editor of the Baseball Forecaster" hat....

I can't help but laugh at the notion of a single bad projection negatively impacting book sales. Take a look at the book, there are plenty of other projections that missed, many by a lot. No different than any other year. In fact, Ron's the first one to tell everyone who plays this game that projections are an inexact science, perhaps even moreso than we want to believe. Coincidentally, his columns over at BaseballHQ.com today and over the past couple of weeks are focused on this particular issue.

You're right that our philosophy is to "grade on talent" as you put it, or as we like to say "buy skills not roles". And Joba displayed some elite skills in both the SP and RP roles entering 2009. Obviously, that's what drove the aggressive projection.

That's not to say the projection was without caveats. One of the features that the Forecaster and BaseballHQ provide in addition to raw projections is Reliability Grades. For "Playing Time and Experience", Chamberlain got a "D" grade. So, if you were comparing him to Sabathia and Santana (both rated as "AAA" reliability), that would have been another data point to consider.

But the point I really want to address is the idea that the ranking of Joba was done "exclusively for the wow factor". The reality of the situation was that the Chamberlain projection was revised downward for one reason: we cut his projected IP, in response to offseason indications from the Yankees about how they were going to limit his innings in 2009. The Forecaster projection called for 199 IP, the Yankees subsequently announced that they wanted to keep him for 150 IP. In the last projections update before the NFBC draft, we had him at 145 IP. Obviously, a massive IP cut like that is going to impact his projected value negatively.

The Forecaster offers a free projections update on March 1, so readers would have had access to the updated projection then, even if they don't subscribe to BaseballHQ.

But by all means, keep pumping your conspiracy theories.... I'm switching hats again and going back to figuring out how to hold off Lindy for another 2+ weeks.

(edited for cleanup)

[ September 18, 2009, 10:08 AM: Message edited by: rmurph3 ]

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Sep 18, 2009 5:19 am

No conspiracy theory. I don't even know where that comes from.

Sure, Joba has talent and skills, but to rank him as a number one pitcher over EVERY OTHER PITCHER IN BASEBALL was irresponsible and smacks of sensationalism. I know that sounds harsh, it is.

I usually like to keep things light. Really I do. If a poster on these Boards would have come out and expressed the same opinion he probably would have been met with a little criticism and then summarily forgotten. I expect more from the Forecaster. Was it the thought that Joba was going to go from "Joba Rules" to an innings horse? Limited innings should have been in the thought process BEFORE publication and the Yankees announcement.

If the conspiracy accusation is the wow factor involving Joba as the number one pitcher, color me guilty. To have a pitcher with as few innings as Joba had in the major leagues as the number one pitcher was only met with either a "wow" or a shake of the head. And some of us are still shaking our heads.

That all being said, good luck over the next two weeks

[ September 18, 2009, 11:52 AM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Sep 18, 2009 5:49 am

By the way, it's not a single bad projection that may lose readers. Everybody makes bad projections. Its the thought that Joba was thought to have more skills than every other pitcher in baseball. Thats not a projection, as much as it is a punch line.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Fri Sep 18, 2009 6:07 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

By the way, it's not a single bad projection that may lose readers. Everybody makes bad projections. Its the thought that Joba was thought to have more skills than every other pitcher in baseball. Thats not a projection, as much as it is a punch line. Projecting Joba #1 looked ametuerish to probably most everyone in the NFBC, and the consensus turned out to be correct. I think it goes beyond just a bad projection. Kinda like the guy who drafts a kicker in the 10th round ... or Mike Jacobs in the 3rd round.

There are mistakes, and there are foolish mistakes.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Fri Sep 18, 2009 6:58 am

I had him ranked as #2 (after Roy Halladay) and didn't draft him in a single league. It is what you come up with after judging past circumstances and the team that surrounds him, but before you account for health, age, experience, Joba rules, and whether the Yankees are letting him let it rip. I think you'd be hard pressed to find a Shandler quote saying he was the most valuable pitcher in fantasy or even close to it. The spirit of those rankings is being taken out of context here.

[ September 18, 2009, 01:00 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Fri Sep 18, 2009 7:19 am

Also, to give it some context, # 2 is all because of his high K rates in the past and his win potential due to offense. If you didn't think Joba would K a lot in the first couple months or you thought the Yankee offense sucked then you have a gripe but it's still not one most people would agree with.

In order to reach the K and win potential he had to pitch all year at the level he is capable of. I had no confidence he could do that and I wouldn't think Shandler did either.

But to be clear, I think we see #1 or 2 and say, What, he's going to be the best pitcher with a 2.5 ERA? No, I had him almost a full run higher than that. It is totally K and win driven.

[ September 18, 2009, 01:22 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Fri Sep 18, 2009 9:19 am

Originally posted by rmurph3:

That's not to say the projection was without caveats. One of the features that the Forecaster and BaseballHQ provide in addition to raw projections is Reliability Grades. For "Playing Time and Experience", Chamberlain got a "D" grade. So, if you were comparing him to Sabathia and Santana (both rated as "AAA" reliability), that would have been another data point to consider.

so if Joba kicks ass, you can say we had him #1. if Joba get toasted, you can say we had him with a low reliability ranking. shell game my friend.

Joba being listed as the #1 SP was a joke. I'm really surprised Shandler let that one through.

other "big" projections:

M.Jacobs

M.Napoli

E.Andrus

we'll recap them after the season is over.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Fri Sep 18, 2009 12:40 pm

How much would we have been talking about this years forecaster had Joba been ranked 33rd?

Never underestimate press...good or bad.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Fri Sep 18, 2009 4:18 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

How much would we have been talking about this years forecaster had JOE BLANTON been ranked 33rd?

Never underestimate press...good or bad. fixed!

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Fri Sep 18, 2009 6:19 pm

Great call GG...He's leading me to a 2nd place finish in my home league!

The Oakland Bulldog! (Blanton)

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Sat Sep 19, 2009 8:12 am

Originally posted by Gekko and The King:

quote:Originally posted by rmurph3:

That's not to say the projection was without caveats. One of the features that the Forecaster and BaseballHQ provide in addition to raw projections is Reliability Grades. For "Playing Time and Experience", Chamberlain got a "D" grade. So, if you were comparing him to Sabathia and Santana (both rated as "AAA" reliability), that would have been another data point to consider.

so if Joba kicks ass, you can say we had him #1. if Joba get toasted, you can say we had him with a low reliability ranking. shell game my friend.

Joba being listed as the #1 SP was a joke. I'm really surprised Shandler let that one through.

other "big" projections:

M.Jacobs

M.Napoli

E.Andrus

we'll recap them after the season is over. [/QUOTE]Thanks for pointing this out. This was the issue that bothered me, when I saw not just Joba but Napoli at #1 catcher... It really hurt Shandler's credibility with me and frankly, it wasn't high to begin with. The point of rankings is for the ranker (shandler) to balances pros and cons and try and come up with best guess at the value of players during a season. THAT is what PAYING CUSTOMERS are PAYING FOR. To have your #1 pick be a "D" in reliability is Bizarre to say the least

Anyway, I have always used both multiple sources (including Shandler) and my own research. I will be not using him in any inputs next year.

Spyhunter

LONG GONE · Post by **LONG GONE** » Sat Sep 19, 2009 9:11 am

How about Chris Davis.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Sep 19, 2009 9:21 am

yes c.davis and furcal were other outlier projections.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Sep 19, 2009 9:25 am

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

This was the issue that bothered me, when I saw not just Joba but Napoli at #1 catcher... It really hurt Shandler's credibility with me and frankly, it wasn't high to begin with. SPY - I don't believe Shandler actually does the projections. Unless I misread BBHQ reply to me months ago, "a faceless, nameless" person at BBHQ has been assigned to follow each team and give his playing time estimates. from these playing time estimates comes the projections. correct me if i'm wrong Ray

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sat Sep 19, 2009 12:59 pm

Originally posted by Gekko and The King:

quote:Originally posted by Spyhunter:

This was the issue that bothered me, when I saw not just Joba but Napoli at #1 catcher... It really hurt Shandler's credibility with me and frankly, it wasn't high to begin with. SPY - I don't believe Shandler actually does the projections. Unless I misread BBHQ reply to me months ago, "a faceless, nameless" person at BBHQ has been assigned to follow each team and give his playing time estimates. from these playing time estimates comes the projections. correct me if i'm wrong Ray

[/QUOTE]He doesn't play fantasy baseball at the highest level, yet players here flock to him like religion.

All of his misses this season further prove that their is a substantial difference between playing and just talking a good game on paper.

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Sun Sep 20, 2009 12:40 pm

I LOVE RON SHANDLER.

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Sun Sep 20, 2009 4:27 pm

I think everyone knows projecting player stats will never be an exact science. But, if I remember correctly, someone started a thread back in Feb or March about the foolishness of ranking Joba #1 among pitchers. I think it looks bad when most NFBC members realized this and no one at Shandler Enterprises did (or at least, not the consensus of those who wrote the Forcaster).

As for the Forecaster, I will continue to buy it but I buy it so I have all of the players' stats nicely organized for me all in print.I then make my own projections using the stats as one piece of the puzzle.