Live Chat With Todd Zola On Wednesday At 9 EST

[ToddZ]

Originally posted by Bob Enzyte:

Todd, Congrats on your back to back NL Auction wins. My question is what constitutes a line drive? Is there is definition what a line drive is? In the last 5 years, Juan Pierre's line drive percentage is higher than Albert Pujols'. This is according to the Baseball Forecaster. Now, I've watched plenty of at bats from both players and I have a hard time seeing how that can be true. Albert hits the ball very hard. Juan, not so much. Thanks for leaving me a little something last year Lindy. You were right there in that league as well for a good portion of the season, but it is perfectly understandable if the bulk of your attention was elsewhere



One of the caveats working with ground ball, line drive and fly ball data is the judgment is, as you suggest, subjective. It has always been a little dangerous to extrapolate data from one source to another, especially minor league data.



I am somewhat familiar with the manner Baseball Info Solutions does it. There is a good chance this has changed, especially with the improvement in technology, but each staff member was trained on what to consider a GB, FB and LD so there should be some level of consistency.



I also know they are refining the data collection to label hits as not just grounder or fly ball, but hard hit, medium hit and softly hit. So there is some delineation available. It is just that this increased information is not available for "free". And finally, I also believe BIS is using a 4th type of hit, cutely termed a FLYNER - combo line drive and fly ball. But again, you have to pay for this, it is not readily available.



I'm just guessing Pierre has a few more soft line drives than Pujols, while Pujols has a few more hard hit fly balls than Pierre



I look at this data like I look at park effects -- big picture. I don't care if Petco reduced homers by 15% or 25%, it is hard to hit a HR in Petco.



I don't care if Webb's throws 47% GBs or 54%. The predominant type of hit against him is a grounder.



[ February 10, 2010, 10:14 AM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

[ToddZ]

Originally posted by Cornhusker:

What is your usual approach to closers in the main? Take two studs, one stud and a flyer, 3 average guys? Will your approach change this year in any way based on the 2010 player pool? I follow the crowd that believes in a balanced squad in the main and history shows you will need about 90 saves to compete.



I also prefer to not completely trawl for saves, so I will pick 2 that should at least be above "flyer". I'll use the flyer to make up the difference.



I am not against dipping into the top-tier, I had Nathan last season in the Main because I believe their ratios allow you to take more chances with your back end starting pitching.



So I will definitely be paying attention when Papelbon, Nathan, Soria, Mo, etc are being taken. And if I am okay with my sticks at that point, I may go that route again.



If I miss the run or opt to stay with the lumber, I will look for 2 in the class of Cordero, Qualls, Street, Valvede, etc.



Then I will speculate with Thornton or League, someone like that at the end.



But I honestly believe the "don't pay for saves" days are gone, AT LEAST IN THE NFBC!!!



You guys have become so damn good at cherry-picking the speculative closers in the reserve rounds that guys like me that at least thought we had an edge in that area in the beginning no longer have that edge.



And those that still look to waivers, because there are still some in-season saves available, well, the supply is limited while the demand is high, making buying saves an inefficient use of FAAB.



And don't forget about the new Friday rule. If you want to effectively game the new rule, you will need those reserve spots to hold hitters, not hold Luke Gregerson or Mike Adams hoping Bell is dealt or holding Chris Perez, etc.



[ February 10, 2010, 10:29 AM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

[ToddZ]

Okay gang, gotta run and beat the storm. I have an on-line draft at 1PM ET, I will knock more off late afternoon and be back for an hour or so at 9PM ET.



[ February 10, 2010, 10:31 AM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

[Tom Kessenich]

Hey Todd, don't outbid me for A-Rod in our AL Auction today.



Thanks.

[Hard Heads]

Neftali Feliz transitioning to the rotation do you think he will eclipse 150ip or will high pitch counts limit him?

[ToddZ]

Originally posted by Fast Money:

If you have an ideal draft, what does the makeup of your seven bench position look like? And if not, what type strategy's do you apply? Thanks. If I have an ideal draft, I don't need no stinking reserve!!!



But since I have never had an ideal draft....



Previous to this season, my intent was to have CI, MI and OF covered with 3 reserves and have 4 spots for streaming pitching, then let injuries dictate the direction.



But I am still thinking how seriously I want to try to game the new Friday rule. The way I see it, either you look to really maximize extra at bats or you don't. A couple here and there are probably not going to have a significant influence.



So to really have ample sticks to maximize weekly at bats, I figure I would need 4 or 5 hitters.



Which means fewer spots for pitching and injuries.



The pitching can be handled by drafting a slightly better staff than normal, especially if I plan on bullying up hitting with more at bats.



But with one out of 3 players hitting the DL every year, I am wondering if any of this will really matter come June when most of us have 3 or 4 injured guys on reserve.



But in general, I like to have ample flexibility so I only need 3 hitters to back up everyone but catcher then have 2 good middle relievers to use when my starters have tough matchups and 2 lower level starters with a favorable home park to float in.

[ToddZ]

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Hey Todd!



Without giving up too much, which positions look the deepest and most shallow? Maybe a top three and bottom three.



How about the same thing for the 10 scoring categories?



Good luck in 2010! You ask, I'll give. You know that Lance.



Everyone has their own definition of weak and shallow. With the multiple eligibility players, the player pool is now such that the replacement level at every position except catcher is about the same. That is, by the time we get to the reserve round, the quality of all position players is about the same, except catchers of course.



So what I look for is pockets of players of similar value, which implies there is a drop off. For instance, 3rd base looks top heavy while 1B is pretty equally distributed. So up top, I will take a 3B to break a tie. And I will pass on a 1B to break a tie.



At least for me, I see tons of outfield value from rounds 4 to 8 or 9. In the 4th, I have guys ranked 16-30 still available. In the 6th, I see 4th round talent available, etc. So even though I am VERY VERY high on Kemp and Braun, if I had a top 3-5 pick, I may pass on the OF preferring to have all 5 slots available for me later.



As far as categories, while it is always a risk to "count on" something being there for you in a snake, there is a buttload of speed from outfielders in the middle rounds, so you don't have to take an Ellsbury or Crawford early and you don't have to worry if you get Cano and not Roberts and still need steals.

[ToddZ]

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Any commentary on the possible results of this, Todd...(does you computer have doubles off the wall numbers?)



"The height of Citi Field's center-field wall will be sliced in half, making the ballpark more homer-friendly, the Daily News has learned. Last season, the wall measured 16 feet in front of the sparsely used Home Run Apple. Now, with the second level of padding being removed, it will measure eight feet in the middle of the outfield." As the person who wrote the park effect story for the F&W magazine last season and suggested the New Yankee Stadium would play like the old one and Citi Field would be pretty neutral, I'm not sure I am the best one to ask.



Plus I really don't like park effects in general, I prefer the caveman approach -- Petco, pitch, good.



Those that like the psychological aspect may wonder if David Wright perceives the park to be better so he reverts back to his attacking the ball ways.



My PC does not have the double off the wall data, but this might



http://www.hittrackeronline.com



Along with this



http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_pla ... statType=1

[DOUGHBOYS]

Originally posted by ToddZ:

there is a buttload of speed from outfielders in the middle roundsThat's what I'm talkin' bout



If "buttload" has replaced 'value' in terminology at Mastersball, sign me up!



[ February 10, 2010, 04:53 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

[ToddZ]

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Without watching a game, or even being a fan, could a Charles Epps type, become a force playing fantasy baseball? A few years ago, I would have answered yes.



But with so much math now readily available, the pendulum has shifted back to the gamer that can effectively combine the two.



I don't think it is 50/50, I think Charles Epps has an advantage over Charlie Brown.



I don't think 'watching games' is completely necessary either. Though understanding why a ground ball has certain likely outcomes as compared to a fly ball is relevant so you at least need an understanding of the game. That is, the application of the numbers sure helps if you played Little League at some point.

[ToddZ]

Originally posted by Ryan Carey:

Following up on Lance's question - since you grabbed Butler in the 6th rd of the MB mock draft - do you see a power spike coming this season? And I just paid $26 for him in an AL-only auction.



I am not going to come out and PREDICT a power spike. If the indicators were there for me to predict it, that would be worked into our projection model.



His GB rate does not portend a power spike.



But I think he is "at value" in the 6th and he fit my team in terms of positions quite nicely.



But...



I think there is the POTENTIAL of a power spike if he can lift a few more balls.



His contact rate and discipline are such that he can likely not suffer from a small change of approach.



I have no idea if he is going to do it.



Just saying he profiles as someone that could, and worst case is does what he is supposed to do for a 6th rounder.

[Gekko]

Todd - No answering my question?



How about this one? How much do u think Poodles will go for in the $1,300 mixed auction?

[ToddZ]

Originally posted by Gekko:

todd - what is your $1,300 mixed auction strategy this year? what players are you hoping to buy at a discount? what players will you pay the extra $1 for? thanks! So many ways to go here....



Let's see, I'll start with the sarcastic approach.



A man has to know his limits. And after surveying the competition in this league, I have humbly decided that my best strategy is to figure out the best way to finish in second place and at least get a small return on my investment.



Then there is the suck up approach.



Maybe you should check out the essay I wrote in the first Fanball/NFBC magazine.



Now the cocky, channeling Walla approach.



hey geeko, you must be worried about me if you need to know my strategy. the sharks in vegas never asked me my strategy



Now the sincere approach.



In a 15-team auction, I honestly doubt there will be any players I "NEED TO HAVE". I readily admit I walk into an AL or NL only auction with a target list in mind, but with both leagues at my disposal, and a history playing in AL and NL only, 15 teams is still relatively shallow to me so I am likely to let the action come to me early, buying guys at prices I like that I feel build me a base to buy guys I like more later.



In the middle, I throw prices out the window and buy the stats I need, confident I can fill in adequately for cheap in the end game and reserves, then into the season with FAAB.



So not being flip, I am not looking for any particular player cheap or willing to go more for specific players.



Are there players that I sense I will like more than others? Sure. At least until they ask me for a list.



Shin-Soo Choo, Adam Jones, Julio Borbon, Asdrubal Cabrera, Martin Prado off the top of my head.

[ToddZ]

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Todd, A follow up to Gekko's last question.

The next time we play Texas hold 'em, can you play against me with your hole cards face up? Trust me Dough, I can be read like a book without you needing to see my cards.



There is a reason I don't play cards with my buds any more at the industry get-togethers.



As one may imagine, there are some dang good poker players in the roto crowd. Several years ago, we would mainly drink and play a little cards, and I could hold my own.



Then I kept drinking and they all learned to play better.



And soon, I was the only one still drinking.



So now, I ask how many tournaments they are going to play, throw a twenty on the table for each, tell them to give one to the winner, I'm hitting the bars with the others.



[ February 10, 2010, 05:22 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

[ToddZ]

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Todd, you've admitted through the years that your transition from an auction specialist to a draft guy has been difficult. Yet, you've come close to "mastering" both, pun intended!! Can you explain why the draft is difficult for those who grew up in Rotisserie baseball only playing auctions? After all, doesn't it just come down to player evaluations and making the right decisions when it's your turn to pick/bid?It's true, I truly believe some of my industry brethren are naive to the nuances of the drafting format. And yes, it comes down to player evaluations and making the right decisions, but it is the decision making intricacies that my fellow industry drafter have been slow to recognize, or too stubborn to admit exist. There is an art to assembling a team, there is a great deal of finesse. It is more than just bullying the players their evaluations favor. I think the biggest difference is the depth you really need to know the player pool. And I don't mean know the player's name, his team and position and have a dollar value. I mean know the type of contribution the player provides, how that relates to other players at his positions and other positions. You need to know what to do if you miss a run or count on a specific type of player being there and he is not. You need to know what to do if your fellow drafters are taking starting pitching a round earlier than your trusty ADP. And you need to know some things I have not yet learned yet either. But I will let you know when I do.



Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

I'm interested in knowing. And in reverse order, do you think it's just as hard for those who only have done drafts to then suddenly excel in auctions? Or can our NFBC drafters have equal success in our new auction championship format?

They have no chance and should save their money.



Next question...



Okay, okay...



They can absolutely compete. In my not so humble opinion, it will not be the "baseball" that is the tough transition, but rather the speed of the auction as compared to the nature of a snake draft where you know when it is your turn.



As Greg likely recalls, a few years ago, the LABR draft invited some "regular guys." These were accomplished players that won their home leagues and basically won an essay contest explaining their accomplishment to John Hunt of Baseball Weekly. I had the pleasure of being auctioneer one year with the regular guys and also met a few more in my travels and they all said the same thing.



DUDE, SLOW THE F%@K DOWN!!!!



Even though they were accomplished auction players, the pace we do the LABR and Tout leagues as well as the NFBC auction leagues was intimidating.



So the advice I offer to the newbies comes right from the essay I wrote in the Fanball mag -- KISS.



Track your team, don't worry about the others.



Organize your material in a manner most comfortable for YOU. Maybe you can find names quickest if they are alphabetical. Maybe rank them by value by position.



The best way is what works best for you.

[Gekko]

where do you see Placido Polanco hitting in the lineup?



who wins the #5 SP for the Yanks?

[ToddZ]

Originally posted by Sack:

Todd:



Auction: How important is it for you to be in a position of strength heading into the final stages of an auction? What is the preferred split during the end game in regards to dollars/players needed, if any?Maybe it is because as just explained, my straight draft prep has improved my overall knowledge of the player pool, but I am now at a point where I feel "controlling the auction" or "position of strength" is overrated. Are you really in control if you are able to get guys you like cheap because cheap refers to your perception? Are you really in a position of strength if you have the most money, so you can buy anyone you want even if it means "overpaying"?



Presently, my "groove" is when regardless of the money I have, I am confident there is an efficient way to spend it.



The other aspect of this is something I talked about at the 2009 spring First Pitch Tour and I still believe, and that is by the time you get to the end, we all value players so differently that you may get the same 5 players if you have $15 than if you have $5. So when I am down to something like $15 for 6, I will spend $10 on a guy if it is worth it, leaving 5 for 5.



Originally posted by Sack:

Straight Draft: Thoughts on KDS specific to 2010, how would you rank the following three windows: 1-5 , 6-10, 11-15 and why?



My VEGAS pal, CATCH, brought up the Shandler Forum. Will you be making the trip to Teaneck, NJ for the March 6th presentation? $40 well spent! Love 1 or 2, not a fan of 3,4 and 5 as I would prefer to leave Braun and Kemp on the board so I can get several OF later at a discount.



Love 11-15. At least using my "little black box", the "value in a vacuum" of the players in the first couple of rounds is tighter than I have EVER witnessed. So I would prefer to get my pick of 2 of them with a late pick.



6-10 is last because I can get the same guy at 13, 14 or 15 than I can at 6 or 7, but I like the guy better at 17 or 18 than 24 or 25.



I will indeed be in Teaneck. Other than Citi Field weekend, I am limited to no overnights when traveling for personal reasons so I can make the NYC FPF and head back to Boston when it is over.

[ToddZ]

Originally posted by Sack:

Todd:



One more..... In regard to crowning an Overall Auction Champion this season, how much will venue & league placement play in determining the eventual winner? Probably a lot, but there is no way to predict it now.



Here is what I mean.



In a draft, even if someone is using an outdated list from a magazine, by the nature choosing players of decreasing value round by round, there is a limit to how bad the worst team can be versus how good the best team can be.



But due to the nature of the auction, there is potential for greater separation.



But I don't believe this will ever be predictable.



And honestly, it is this scrunched top to bottom nature of drafts that made the accomplishments of your favorite pig farmer that much more impressive.

[ToddZ]

Break time. I'll see if I can knock some of those that require longer answers off before 9PM, then we can focus more on the quick hit type Q&A.

[Gekko]

for the billy butler lovers...why is sandoval going in the early 3rd and butler going in the mid 6th? aren't they similar players in similar situations?

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by Gekko:

for the billy butler lovers...why is sandoval going in the early 3rd and butler going in the mid 6th? aren't they similar players in similar situations? Doesn't Sandoval qualify at 3B? Does he rank higher at 3B than 1B?

[DOUGHBOYS]

Wrong thread, Shawn

[Gekko]

[ February 10, 2010, 06:24 PM: Message edited by: Gekko ]

[Gekko]

Todd - I was recently talking with a friend about Jon boy Sanchez. I told him I did not do his projections yet, but I was inclined not to believe he has "truned a corner". This is based on the fact he was a dud for 3 and one half years in the majors and then he had ONE great second half.



Am I missing out on this year's Ubaldo Jimenez?

[ToddZ]

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Hey Todd!



Expanding a bit on Sack...



Like a stuck rudder, much does draft position steer your serpentine boat?



Knowing the first several rounds are the ADP/"sheep" rounds, and you can almost pick each persons next selection correctly if given three guesses...how much does your draft slot in a 15 team draft force your hand? FWIW, I think the most commonly heard phrase after the Main is over this year is, "Holy sh!t, that went nothing like the ADP said it would."



And I mean starting from 1.03.



But to answer the question, at the end of the day, I want my team to have a certain composition. The players may be different, but in terms of the big-picture, the overall constitution of my team should be the same regardless of my draft slot.



The trick is being able to recognize what is happening in your specific draft and discern the best path to get to the desired end. So to that sense, the draft slot does matter.



I want a starting pitcher of "X" ilk. Do I have to take him at this turn or can I wait 20-something picks and there will still be one there?



On the surface, this seems like a disadvantage.



But on the other hand, you have the ability to pair up picks near the wheel.



I want a closer and some speed. There are 4 picks between mine. Both guys have saves but no steals. I am taking Nyjer Morgan first then Chad Qualls.



If one guy had Jacoby Ellsbury and the other Carl Crawford, I will take Qualls first and then Morgan.



Which do I prefer? I like the wheel because I am not afraid to jump the ADP to get Pitcher X "early".



[ February 10, 2010, 06:42 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]