Live Chat With Todd Zola On Wednesday At 9 EST

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Wed Feb 10, 2010 1:00 pm

Originally posted by Gekko:

Sorry I was mistaken. When you said "Butler Lovers", I thought I qualified by taking Butler in the 5th round in an early draft.

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Wed Feb 10, 2010 1:03 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Gekko:

Sorry I was mistaken. When you said "Butler Lovers", I thought I qualified by taking Butler in the 5th round in an early draft. [/QUOTE]Nice!!

[ February 10, 2010, 07:04 PM: Message edited by: Ryan Carey ]

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 10, 2010 1:04 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Say the "sheep" price for "Player X" is $22.

Let's also say YOUR personal (willing to pay) price is $14 for that same player, and we are early in the auction before money is tight.

As a price enforcer, should you be willing to go a bit above your price to curtail another player getting a bargain, or once it goes over your personal price, you step aside from further bidding?I'll be honest, if the sheep price is $22, then at this point, the player will be bid up to $22.

If he is at $16 and I know the market values him at $22 but I think $14, I am fine with letting it go.

The more interesting scenario is if the sheep price is $14 but i think he is worth $22, but for whatever reason, I do not want the player. Maybe he is a steals guy and I already have steals. Or maybe he is a 3B and I already took one and did not want to fill my CI so early. Here is where my juices flow and I want the price to edge closer to my price than the market price. But it is completely circumstantial if I decide to enforce.

Actually, this is more the way I feel. I will never forget a history class I took in high school in the 70s. The teacher wrote "the best reason for there being nuclear weapons is so there will never be a nuclear war."

I would prefer my competitors wonder if I am enforcing or if I really want the player. When we do back to back AL and NL auctions in Vegas, there are a lot of common owners in each league. If I enforced heavily in the morning, I likely did the opposite in the afternoon.

Because at the end of the day, as fun as this auction psychology is to talk about, think about and ask schmucks like me about, it is more cosmetic than relevant.

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

When folks try and guess how high (above their own price) to bid said player up, how much of that is based on body language/voice/speed/number of bidders?For newbies, probably a lot. For experienced players? They can see right through that stuff and if they want the player, they bid. If they don't, they won't. I don't know for sure, but I am guessing this is similar in poker.

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Do you get involved in bidding on players you do not want to keep others guessing? Would it be a good idea to get involved in bidding on most every player to throw folks off your scent?Yes, I get involved with players I do not want. But not all because I want to keep them guessing. If I am involved on everyone, they don't care because I am involved with everyone and i don't really see an advantage. I think picking and choosing can keep then guessing a little more. But again, this may matter in the new 15-team competition, it meant squat when I am drafting with the crew in the AL and NL auctions.

Are you allowed to simply raise your hand (with obvious eye contact with auctioneer) without calling out a number, and be given the current price on a player (plus one dollar) to minimize "tells"?[/QB]If this is not an official rule one way or the other (and it likely should be), it is up to the auctioneer to alert the drafters with respect to how "he will call it." If I am the auctioneer, I want a verbal bid. I can hear in three different directions. I can't see to the left, to the right and straight ahead.

Will being put into a league with no real "price enforcers" be an ideal spot for better odds of being crowned the overall auction champion...or like most drafts...will 1/3rd to 1/2 of your purchased players will be turned over by the end of the season. [/QB]The market enforces the prices all by itself. Again, more fluff than substance.

In a draft, your 18th player is likely a "$6" player. In an auction, you can have 6 $1 guys. One strategy may be to cycle guys in all season at that $1 spot until you find Garrett Jones. Just saying the team make-ups will be so varied in an auction that I don't think there will be any single best way to do it.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 10, 2010 1:06 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Wade Davis or Joe Blanton? For 2010, Blanton and it is not even close.

After that, I reserve the right to change my mind.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Wed Feb 10, 2010 1:18 pm

Originally posted by Ryan Carey:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Gekko:

Sorry I was mistaken. When you said "Butler Lovers", I thought I qualified by taking Butler in the 5th round in an early draft. [/QUOTE]Nice!!

[/QUOTE]By the way, I threw you a question a couple of days ago. If you get my drift..DD

[ February 10, 2010, 07:19 PM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]

Blowinmudd · Post by **Blowinmudd** » Wed Feb 10, 2010 1:20 pm

Todd,

Lets talk Jermaine Dye.

When do think VALUE is good for a free agent like Dye?After rd 15?after rd 20?Do you gamble on him before he signs with someone or let someone else take him.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 10, 2010 1:24 pm

Originally posted by rkulaski:

Todd,

2 parts here - feel free to answer one or both.

1)Is there any research out there that supports or does not support the idea that closers who play on teams that win more games get more saves? How do you determine which closers you are going target? And finally, in the main event, how have you faired (fared?) in the past with your selection of closers?Numbers show that 45%-55% of a teams wins are "saved".

I do not believe it is predictable where in that range a closer will fall.

A 70 win team with 55% saved have 38.5 saves.

A 90 win team with 45% saved have 40.5 saves.

All this means is yes, a closer on a better team has the opportunity to earn more saves, but the extent of that opportunity is random and not as great as might be perceived.

I want 2 closers that I believe will get their team's first and last saves, then a speculative guy or two. I am also not afraid to jump into the Nathan/Paps/Soria/Mo tier. I did so last season with Nathan. The year previous, I was 0 for 2 -- one was Soriano. I forget the other.

I think the whole "wait for saves" has seen its day as the reason for doing it was the supply of free saves was high and the demand low. The NFBC has adjusted and now the supply is lower and the demand higher. Not an efficient market to be in.

Originally posted by rkulaski:

2)What makes projections and info from mastersball.com any more special than that from Baseball HQ or Baseball Prospectus? Do you feel fantasy baseball players can gain any "edge" or advantage from subscribing mastersball.com or any other site where you have to pay for some of the content? If yes, then why?

Thanks for your time tonight.

Rich Rich -- let me ask you a question. Do you feel my answers tonight are honest, well-thought out and credible? Do I at minimum explain my reasoning, so you can decide if you "believe" me?

If the answer is yes, than THAT is what makes Mastersball special. If you have a question on a projection or a concept or why I took Billy Butler in the 6th round of my site mock, YOU CAN ASK ME!!!

Sure, we stand by our projection model and valuation methodology. But that does not make us special. What makes us special is each and every one of us is accessible via a message forum or comments attached to a blog or site essay. And you get myself. You get Lawr Michaels. You get Brian Walton. You get Rob Leibowitz. You get JP Kastner. People can joke about or chastise Tout Wars and LABR all they want, but you get first hand access to guys that play in the most prestigious industry leagues. Not their staff, but them.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Wed Feb 10, 2010 1:35 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Gekko:

Sorry I was mistaken. When you said "Butler Lovers", I thought I qualified by taking Butler in the 5th round in an early draft. [/QUOTE]even one of the best makes mistakes

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 10, 2010 1:40 pm

Originally posted by rkulaski:

One more while I'm at it...

3 pitchers. Do they take a step forward, step backward, stay the same? Finally, rank them.

Jonathan Sanchez

Jorge de la Rosa

Clay Buchholz Hmm, treading a slippery slope here, I hope this answer comes off okay.

I don't know if they take a step forward or not. I can point out some trends, that IF they continue, the player will improve or decline. If I KNEW what they would do, that would be factored into my model. If every player that displays the same trend has the same result, that is no longer a trend. It is a reality and is accounted for in the model.

I can identify some trends and tell you what I THINK.

Sanchez -- 2 years of stable skills say he may be "what you see is what you get", especially since he is 27 already. But he has not really been a full time starter very long, and is only improving his BB-rate away from taking the next step, so he profiles as someone that can indeed improve. If he were 24, I would be more confident.

de La Rosa -- similar to Sanchez in that he is older than you might think (29 by opening day). He also walks too many. His saving grace is his ground ball tendency. I don't see s step up and am hesitant to rely on him in the NFBC as I prefer to stream guys with his high BB-rate in when they have favorable matchups, and Coors tempers that. In NL only, sign me up, I love the Ks and have no problem rostering him.

Buchholz -- a lot are betting on the come here and expect him to finally put it all together. I need him to show me.

The above is my 2010 rank.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 10, 2010 1:46 pm

Originally posted by Roy's Outlaws:

HI Todd

how much do you factor in a player age, once they get over 35 and there is no more use of PED for them to use to fight father time. Example : Manny Ramirez. ROY

See you in Teaneck We use an aging curve in our model so I let that do the work for me.

Then the performance itself takes care of the rest.

But I'd be lying if at table, I didn't apply a little extra subjective bias, especially for the older players with an asterisk hanging over their head.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 10, 2010 1:56 pm

Originally posted by Blowinmudd:

Todd,

Please list your projections for each scoring category that you use for AL and NL only Auction leagues.How much different is this than a mixed Auction? Even though there are many that credit me with being the first to "publish" targets -- not invent the concept, but publish targets, I am becoming less and less married to target drafting.

Ask everyone after your draft our auction next March if they made their target and I bet everyone says they did. But how many end up winning?

There is the bias of drafting using a particular set of projections and there is nothing to account for what you pick up via in-season managing. Many will leave the Main saying "I have 287 HR, 1123 R, 1098 RBI, 156 SB and .284 BA" Really? On March 28? Before a single pitch has been thrown?

In the main, I loosely target 3rd place in HR and SB as a means of attaining balance. I look for 2 1/2 closers and 650 K from 4 starers that I will leave in no matter what.

In only leagues, I also use 3rd place targets in HR and SB as a means to keep balance. I want one closer and a speculative guy or two. I am less concerned about how many Ks I have because in deep leagues, it is easier to manage the ratios with middle relievers to make up lost K points.

Sorry, I do not have the numbers with me. I am not hiding them nor are they a secret. I will dig them up and post them later.

pinstripepower · Post by **pinstripepower** » Wed Feb 10, 2010 1:59 pm

I have taken BRETT GARDNER (NYY) IN BOTH MY DRAFTS 13RND OR LATER. I FEEL HE WILL GET AT LEAST 400 AB AND POST AT LEAST 40SB 90RS.CAN YOU TELL ME IF I AM WAY OFF BASE HERE? OR I AM GETTING GREAT VALUE OUT OF THOSE SPOTS THANK-YOU

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 10, 2010 2:05 pm

Originally posted by sandckaye:

Todd

If you have first pk in the NFBC Would it make sense to take Hanley rather then Albert?My thinking is that you should be able to get a very good 1st baseman but you will never get another ss near that quality. I have 1st pk in my home league with 14 teams

Stan Stan - While I am not going to argue with anyone taking Hanley, I will suggest the reason you put forth is not my favorite. I don't like the "Pujols plus X-SS is better than Hanley plus Y-1B."

It is Pujols plus the next 22 picks versus Hanley plus the next 22.

Part of the reason you may opt for Hanley is you believe your ability to assemble a better overall 23 is because of the ability to get a 1B you like to help along the way more than a SS you like along the way. Maybe I am picking semantic nits and we are saying the same thing and if so I apologize. But I see this considered in a far more myopic sense than it should be.

Say in round 12 I get Bartlett. I can also get Laroche and I like Laroche and Hanley more than Pujols and Bartlett.

My point is you do not have to take the "opposite" position in round 12.

All that said, I prefer Pujols because he gets you well on your way to the Shawn Childs mantra of 75-75 while contributing a killer BA base. Hanley does the same, but much of his contribution is speed which I feel you can get at a discount later.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 10, 2010 2:12 pm

Originally posted by Hard Heads:

Have you done or heard any research concerning how the Twins new stadium will play for hitters and pitchers? With that potential research, what do you project for Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau? I have retired from researching something that there is no legit answer to be found. Parks with close fences I treat as hitter parks. Parks with far fences is a pitching park. In between is neutral. So right now, Target is neutral.

That said, I am concerned about Morneau as he is returning from 2 surgeries (back and wrist). Backs tend to linger and wrist injuries sap power. I will also not invest a 1st or second rounder in Mauer, but for a different reason than most.

I referenced Shawn and 75-75 before. Shawn is the EF Hutton of the NFBC - when he talks, you should listen.

In a vacuum, Mauer's "value" is 1st round. But too much of it is wrapped up in batting average. I want more counting stats to get me towards that 75-75. He puts you behind. Sure, you can draft Dunn later. But forcing yourself to HAVE to draft a specific player or stat reduces your pool of assets or makes you invest earlier than is most efficient.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 10, 2010 2:14 pm

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:

Hey Todd, don't outbid me for A-Rod in our AL Auction today.

Thanks. TK -- there was NEVER a danger of that.

FWIW, I thought the CBS auction software was very impressive.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Feb 10, 2010 2:21 pm

Over 70 folks on right now, Hot Todd(z)ie!

Great job tonight...keep on truckin'!

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 10, 2010 2:21 pm

Originally posted by Hard Heads:

Neftali Feliz transitioning to the rotation do you think he will eclipse 150ip or will high pitch counts limit him? I have to be forthright -- I am more than willing to share my opinion, but that and $7.99 gets you a Fanball mag.

What I am saying is I have no idea, only my intuition.

Plus, I am not sure how much the "Nolan Ryan factor" is an influence. It will be interesting to see if he babies him even though he has been outspoken about the wussification of starters.

Our projection is 104 IP which can be interpreted as a hedge between starting and relieving.

My "guess" is unless the Rangers are competing, Feliz is moved to the pen at some point, perhaps out of necessity, perhaps out of caution.

I love him in a keeper or dynasty league but perhaps in a cocky manner, I do not believe I need to show the NFBC world I read John Sickels and know who Neftali Feliz is. There are about 350 other pitchers I can choose. I am confident I can scrounge up 12 or 13 to compete.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 10, 2010 2:25 pm

Originally posted by Gekko:

Todd - No answering my question?

How about this one? How much do u think Poodles will go for in the $1,300 mixed auction? I think he'll for 45-55 in all the leagues. I really don't know what to expect in the NYC $1300 auction. I'll split the difference and say $50, give or take a buck or two.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 10, 2010 2:31 pm

Originally posted by Gekko:

where do you see Placido Polanco hitting in the lineup?

who wins the #5 SP for the Yanks? Tough to crack that top-6 in the Phillie lineup. So I will suggest 7th with Ruiz 8th, with the possibility of dropping Victorino in the unlikely even he struggles for an extended period, moving him up to the 2-hole.

I think the 5th spot is Joba's to lose. That said, hardly any squads have 30+ GS from 5 guys. Whether Gaudin or Hughes is the swingman will depend upon how Hughes looks in set-up and if the reason for needing another guy is because someone will be out for awhile. Maybe it is Gaudin if the need is short term, Hughes if it is long term.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 10, 2010 2:35 pm

Originally posted by Gekko:

for the billy butler lovers...why is sandoval going in the early 3rd and butler going in the mid 6th? aren't they similar players in similar situations? Most projection models favor Panda by 20 points in BA, a handful of HR and SB and a few runs and RBI. That accounts for difference.

But they are close enough that if Sandoval slips and Butler grows, Butler may "out-earn" him.

My hesitance for taking Sandoval in the 3rd is similar to Mauer in that so much of his expected worth is via batting average and I want more than 30 or so HR+SB from that spot.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 10, 2010 2:38 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Gekko:

for the billy butler lovers...why is sandoval going in the early 3rd and butler going in the mid 6th? aren't they similar players in similar situations? Doesn't Sandoval qualify at 3B? Does he rank higher at 3B than 1B? [/QUOTE]In a vacuum comparing to replacement at each position? No.

In a practical, strategic sense based on the composition of the respective pools? Absolutely.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 10, 2010 2:40 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Wrong thread, Shawn Originally posted by Gekko:

Todd - No answering my question?

How about this one? How much do u think Poodles will go for in the $1,300 mixed auction? Hey -- this is my thread and Shawn is more than welcome.

Walla on the other hand...

j/k

[ February 10, 2010, 08:41 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 10, 2010 2:43 pm

Originally posted by Gekko:

Todd - I was recently talking with a friend about Jon boy Sanchez. I told him I did not do his projections yet, but I was inclined not to believe he has "truned a corner". This is based on the fact he was a dud for 3 and one half years in the majors and then he had ONE great second half.

Am I missing out on this year's Ubaldo Jimenez? We talked about Sanchez earlier.

If he were 24, I would be cautiously optimistic.

But he's 27 so I am okay with taking him to use in home games with the HOPE, but not EXPECTATION he cuts down on the walks so I can use him more frequently, because them Ks sure is nice.

[ February 10, 2010, 08:44 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 10, 2010 2:49 pm

Originally posted by Blowinmudd:

Todd,

Lets talk Jermaine Dye.

When do think VALUE is good for a free agent like Dye?After rd 15?after rd 20?Do you gamble on him before he signs with someone or let someone else take him. My answer here is the same snotty response I gave for Neftali Feliz. I am confident enough in my ability that I don't need to take a flyer before I am at the "fungible" portion of my draft.

By that I mean I purposely assign some spots with the intent of using the spaghetti method -- throw it against the wall and see what sticks.

I like to dedicate a couple of reserves for pitching I intend to use and I prefer to have a OF backup with a team first so I suppose that puts us around round 26.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 10, 2010 2:51 pm

Originally posted by Gekko:

Todd - I was recently talking with a friend about Jon boy Sanchez. I told him I did not do his projections yet, but I was inclined not to believe he has "truned a corner". This is based on the fact he was a dud for 3 and one half years in the majors and then he had ONE great second half.

Am I missing out on this year's Ubaldo Jimenez? Damn, sometimes you get so wrapped up in what you are doing you miss the obvious answer...

NO WAY!!!

You have a friend?