Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds

[Ryan C]

The Rookie Invitational drafted over the weekend and I am pleased to report that our first time players acquitted themselves quite well in their initial 15 team drafts.



It was an interesting draft from start to finish and I can honestly say that no one had a "bad" draft, which I think is a direct result of solid preparation by the participants. There were a lot of surprises though for a Sat draft. Starting pitching went at a premium as 25 SP's were drafted by the end of Round 6! Here are the first 3 Rounds.



1. Pujols

2. H Ramirez

3. A Rodriguez

4. C Utley

5. R Braun

6. M Kemp

7. D Wright - The chat room buzzed at this pick

8. M Teixeira

9. P Fielder

10. E Longoria

11. R Howard

12. M Cabrera

13. I Kinsler

14. T Tulowitski

15. C Crawford



16. J Upton

17. A Gonzalez

18. J Rollins

19. J Mauer

20. M Holliday

21. G Sizemore

22. J Ellsbury

23. T Lincecum

24. B Phillips

25. R Halladay

26. K Youkilis

27. M Reynolds

28. J Votto

29. P Sandoval

30. R Zimmerman



31. D Pedroia

32. K Morales

33. F Hernandez

34. CC Sabathia

35. R Cano

36. Z Greinke

37. J Werth

38. V Martinez

39. D Haren

40. J Morneau

41. J Reyes

42. A Ramirez

43. C Granderson

44. I Suzuki

45. J Verlander



After looking at the ADP - some interesting tidbits I found regarding our draft:



The RL can claim these "early" picks from the most recent ADP list sent out - Utley, Wright, A Gonzalez, K Morales, Wainwright, Choo, D Lee, Hamels, Gallardo, Nolasco, Jiminez & W Rodriguez. This bears out the pitching early trend.



The RL was also very pessimistic when it came to certain injury risk OF as we chose these three later than anyone else: Hamilton, Soriano and Beltran.



Some others who the RL chose later than anyone else: Ethier, Abreu, Billingsley.



A fun draft and many of the owners are posting their teams in our forum at MB.

[SUPERFLY]

Who would take David Wright with the 7th pick in round 1? He must expect 25 Hr and 25+ Sbs again...

[Scott Boras]

I was going to comment on this but this is a rookie league. Some "outside the box," "Anti-NFBC textbook" drafting is to be expected. I think Wright bounces back some, but with no Reyes or Beltran there are much safer options to start your base at pick #7. Wright makes sense in the early to mid second round if you're feeling lucky. If anyone in my league feels like selecting him earlier than that, I applaud you

[Ryan C]

SB - you are right in your assumption about out of the box drafting. This was by no means a cookie cutter draft.



I don't think there was an anti-nfbc textbook thing here - many just haven't read the textbook yet It was a pretty refreshing draft in this respect.



We required all participants to leave the draft with 6 SP's - we wanted to make sure everyone tackled the task of assembling a rotation. The players took that to heart and I think the fact that there were no punters or All-Rp teams in this draft bore that out. Perhaps our league is a truer representation of how SP's will come off the board in the Main Event than other Sat drafts?



Thanks Greg for letting me add this wrinkle to the league. Without changing innings limits we were able to discourage gimmick drafting and gave these first time players a closer approximation to a ME draft and league.

[Money]

Originally posted by Scott Boras:

I was going to comment on this but this is a rookie league. Some "outside the box," "Anti-NFBC textbook" drafting is to be expected. I think Wright bounces back some, but with no Reyes or Beltran there are much safer options to start your base at pick #7. Wright makes sense in the early to mid second round if you're feeling lucky. If anyone in my league feels like selecting him earlier than that, I applaud you What the hell is Anti-NFBC textbook" anyways? Does this mean anyone with a different approach is dead in the water? Keep thinking that way and the new guys will lap you.



I applaud the Rookie League!!!

[freddiezee]

I can see why Wright could go 7th - a bit of a stretch but not that much. I was in a satellite last week where a well-known fantasy baseball owner took him ninth overall. If you think that the power can come back - not a huge leap of faith considering that he is 27 and has shown the power for several years in his career - then you are potentially drafting a 5 category guy at a decently shallow position who is 27 and was a top four pick last year.

The guy who took him added Phillips and Werth in the next two rounds. That's about 80 homers and 65 steals in the first three rounds with two infield spots filled - not bad.

[eddiejag]

Beside's the Wright pick this look's like a shark draft.ALL the 3rd baseman gone after 30 picks and Justin Upton not even close to sliding in this draft. WELL DONE.

[Less than Dave]

I don't see any problem at all with Wright at pick 7... other than the fact that you could get him 5 picks later or so



[ March 17, 2010, 11:28 AM: Message edited by: Less than Dave ]

[Auction King]

Starting pitching is going for a premium this year, I think there were 23 starters gone by the end of round 6 in my Sat. league and a whole bunch more taken in rounds 7 & 8. If you don't have two starters by the end of round six, your staff will be toast.

[eddiejag]

Originally posted by Auction King:

Starting pitching is going for a premium this year, I think there were 23 starters gone by the end of round 6 in my Sat. league and a whole bunch more taken in rounds 7 & 8. If you don't have two starters by the end of round six, your staff will be toast. I noticed this in my last draft, what ever happened to wait on pitchers.I was picking with the first pick and if you dont take one at the 5 and 6 turn your going to be in trouble.But i also noticed that closers are going later and later.Even the stud closers are going in the 7th round,i just got SORIA in the 9th round which is just great.GO WITH THE FLOW.

[SUPERFLY]

Actually, I am the guy that made the Wright pick at 7....I knew it was a stretch according to ADP and the rest of the world, but who is ADP and what does he know?



I will tell you why. 3b is thin at the top. Also, from the 7 spot, I felt stuck in the middle. Cant get a top 4 pick and I cant put together a nice combo in the 14/15 hole.



In a perfect world I would have preferred to be at 13, 14, 15 and grab Wright, then follow him up right away with something in the early 2nd..



But being at 7, he would not make it back to me in the mid 2nd round, so I grabbed him...



I was very happy to have B phillips in rd 2 and wanted to grab A Halladay/ greinke in rd 3. But TIm L went just before Phillips, halladay the pick after...



In rd 3 when i was staring at Greinke, the guy infront of me grabbed him...I took Werth for the power/Speed combo.



So as one poster pointed out, we can reasonably expect about 80 HR/65 SBS from the Trio while filling a Thin 3b and 2b at the same time...



FWIW, this came up yesterday elsewhere. Most projections have D wrights power/HR output at somewhere near 18-22 HRs this season. It sounds reasonable when you know the nature of how projections are created..



But Todd Zola said something that I completely agreed with. David Wright is either a 10-15 HR guy now or still a 25-30 HR guy. Not something in between. I see him returning to the 25-30 HR level this year. I just dont see how a talented 27 year old player can all of a sudden become a 10 HR guy after he is a 25-30+ HR guy... its not like he is some overweight, 35 yr old DH and his skills completely eroded all of a sudden as father time crept up....



I had the first 6 picks handicapped at any combo of these 6 players. Pujols, Hanley, Arod, Utley, Braun and Kemp.....If anyone fell to me at 7, I would have grabbed him.. The only one I thought I might have a shot for was Kemp...But when he was gone at 6, I knew I was taking Wright...



When I did it, I felt like the kid in second grade class with a booger hanging from his nose and didnt realize it...After about 5 minutes of the whole class giggling , you realize they are giggling at you....The pick sure surprised some and I am sure many thought it was a bad pick... But it was thought out ahead of time and wasnt some pick I made in desperation...



You may now resume the giggling!!

[Ryan C]

Well - I never said it was a bad pick



I remember clearly that I typed WOW! in the chat room box. To me it's a perfectly defensible pick - but it took guts to pass up all those power 1B AND Longoria to grab D Wright there. My reaction was more a reaction to a pick we didn't expect. I felt the same way when Adrian Gonzalez went at #17.

[viper]

Originally posted by Less than Dave:

I don't see any problem at all with Wright at pick 7... other than the fact that you could get him 5 picks later or so not quite true. YOU couldn't get him but someone else could. I was in this draft too and just about every player who typically slipped a round or two did not slip. The exceptions seemed to be dangerous injured players and those who were going way too high in most drafts.

[Schwks]

Superfly, as a litigator, I can only say...nice defense of your position. If you did closing argument like that, I might grab Wright in top 4.

[SUPERFLY]

I will say that the Adrien G pick at 17 made me do the same thing....But I have no problem with it I guess...I am a serial reacher myself..



I was however happy as heck when Adam Dunn Landed in my lap 70 picks later in the mid/late 6th round... A full 2 rounds later than NFBC ADP suggested...



By passing on the 1st round 1b's to take Wright, I hoped I could more easily find a 40 HR 1b later...



Towards the end of the 6th round, I really needed a pitcher to add to Javier Vazquez in the 5th round as pitching was flying off the board, But I couldnt let Dunn fall any further...LAte 6th was far enough..



So it essentially worked out how I hoped by taking Wright and I felt a little justified when I got Dunn to man 1b in the 6th...



[ March 17, 2010, 04:33 PM: Message edited by: SUPERFLY ]

[viper]

Originally posted by Ryan Carey:

Well - I never said it was a bad pick



I remember clearly that I typed WOW! in the chat room box. To me it's a perfectly defensible pick - but it took guts to pass up all those power 1B AND Longoria to grab D Wright there. My reaction was more a reaction to a pick we didn't expect. I felt the same way when Adrian Gonzalez went at #17. I had the 2.2 pick and took Adrian Gonzalez. My take on drafts were that all power hitting 1B's with solid non-speed skills would be gone by 3.14. At 2.2, name another non-OF player which that level of power who will not kill your BA. In all my mock draft prior to this, I also took Kendry at 3.14. Alas, he was long gone by my 3.14 selection. This time I took Ichiro who I figured would have been probably been gone by then. I actually would have bet that Kendry would be there and not Ichiro - and I really wanted Kendry.

[SUPERFLY]

Originally posted by Schwks:

Superfly, as a litigator, I can only say...nice defense of your position. If you did closing argument like that, I might grab Wright in top 4. Thanks for the love councilor...If you ever need help with some inspired closing arguments or help with reading a jury, send me a PM!



[ March 17, 2010, 04:37 PM: Message edited by: SUPERFLY ]

[Thunder]

IMHO

i don't think Wright at 1.7 is a bad pick...i just don't want everyone else to know that.....oops..... :rolleyes:

[DOUGHBOYS]

Originally posted by SUPERFLY:

But Todd Zola said something that I completely agreed with. David Wright is either a 10-15 HR guy now or still a 25-30 HR guy. Not something in between. I see him returning to the 25-30 HR level this year. I just dont see how a talented 27 year old player can all of a sudden become a 10 HR guy after he is a 25-30+ HR guy... its not like he is some overweight, 35 yr old DH and his skills completely eroded all of a sudden as father time crept up....Todd said that?

What is the reasoning?

Wright was more of a powerful hitter before playing in a ballpark that was his kryptonite. Not that that is the only reason, but it appears to be one of the primary reasons.

Now that he has had a year of seasoning at Citi, I would not expect another 10 home run season or another power BC (Before Citi)season. I would expect something in between. Not common sense, just my sense.

Todd, if you see this, what is your reasoning?

[DoubleX]

Originally posted by Ryan Carey:

Well - I never said it was a bad pick



I remember clearly that I typed WOW! in the chat room box. It was classic how we all said we weren't much talkers during drafts about 1 minute before the draft started and then Wright gets picked at 7, Ryan says WOW! and then it was like a 3rd grade class with a substitute in the chat room.



Edit: I was the one who got Choo at 4.4 He had no shot at getting back to me at 5.12 and I liked his fit on my team more than what else I was looking at.



[ March 17, 2010, 06:42 PM: Message edited by: DoubleX ]

[Alfred Newman]

I'm just glad Tex fell to me at #8 and when I picked Tim Cy Youngssss Lincecum at #23 I went into a Tiger fist pump.

SinCitySaints SP........

Lincecum rd 1, Gallardo rd 5, Lackey rd 8, DeLaRosa rd 14, Chapman rd 18, W Davis rd 19, A Sanchez rd 27...hmmm hoping these youngsters pan out, early indicators are positive.

Slim in the pen, Cordero and Franklin maybe 75 Svs.

Now off to AC this weekend to see if I can be as lucky.

[Scott Boras]

Superfly, not here to call you out and maybe Wright goes back to the Wright of old and you have your 25/25. For conversation's sake, here is one man's thoughts. If your goal was to grab a top 3B due to how thin it appears this year, why not grab Longoria who you KNOW is going to top 30 homers instead of speculating on Wright doing so? If it's the steal advantage, I would personally have a hard time grabbing Wright over Crawford at that spot as they had very similar numbers last year except Carl had more than twice as many steals. Of course last year's stats are hardly guaranteed to follow the same path, but here's my issue with Wright- He had the the highest BABIP in MLB last year, an unsustainable 400. If you want to see his downside based on that falling back to normal look at his second half last year. It's scary. Unless he can correct his accelerated strikeout rate and get some help in that lineup, he's a risk I can't justify at #7. It's great that they signed Bay but the absence of Reyes and Beltran will hurt his counting stats. Combine the rising k's, the bloated hit rate, the injury depleted lineup, and 81 games at Citi field, and you have too many ifs. As we've heard a gazillion times- you can't win your league in the early rounds but you can lose it. I hope you're wright (pun intended) and he bounces back, but it's going to take more than a couple of spring training homers to convince me. Good luck and thanks for sharing your thought process.

[SUPERFLY]

Originally posted by Scott Boras:

Superfly, not here to call you out and maybe Wright goes back to the Wright of old and you have your 25/25. For conversation's sake, here is one man's thoughts. If your goal was to grab a top 3B due to how thin it appears this year, why not grab Longoria who you KNOW is going to top 30 homers instead of speculating on Wright doing so? If it's the steal advantage, I would personally have a hard time grabbing Wright over Crawford at that spot as they had very similar numbers last year except Carl had more than twice as many steals. Of course last year's stats are hardly guaranteed to follow the same path, but here's my issue with Wright- He had the the highest BABIP in MLB last year, an unsustainable 400. If you want to see his downside based on that falling back to normal look at his second half last year. It's scary. Unless he can correct his accelerated strikeout rate and get some help in that lineup, he's a risk I can't justify at #7. It's great that they signed Bay but the absence of Reyes and Beltran will hurt his counting stats. Combine the rising k's, the bloated hit rate, the injury depleted lineup, and 81 games at Citi field, and you have too many ifs. As we've heard a gazillion times- you can't win your league in the early rounds but you can lose it. I hope you're wright (pun intended) and he bounces back, but it's going to take more than a couple of spring training homers to convince me. Good luck and thanks for sharing your thought process. Its a fair question....So I will give you some more of my thought process.

Evan Longoria was certainly a consideration but as you eluded, I was looking for the SB contribution.

Carl Crawford was also a consideration for the SBs too. But for some reason, I dont like to rely on getting SBs from a speedster one trick pony type. I just my personal preference in constructing a roster. Now I realize that Crawford isnt quite a one trick pony like Bourne, Nyger and Rajah. He does toss in 10+ HR and scores 100ish runs. My problem is counting on one lone guy in my lineup to swipe 60 bags because if he gets injured like in 2008, It can really hurt the sb totals.



I prefer to get my steals sprinkled in throughout the lineup as a whole. I prefer power/speed guys vs speedsters . I like to have about 5 guys in my lineup that can swipe 20+ bases and then get the rest in different quantities throughout the rest of the lineup. If Jason Werth went down in August and I was counting on 20 sbs from him for the year, in reality I only lose about 7-8 sbs for the rest of the season. It is a little easier for me to make up 7 sbs than to make up 25-30 if Crawford went down in the middle of the year.



I know you dont have access to the rest of my lineup, But rd 1 David Wright, rd 2 Brandon Philips and rd 3 Jason Werth kind of show you how I like to begin a roster.

I should of grabbed a pitcher in rd 4 but I didnt....My 4th rd selection of Derek Jeter is another Sb contributor and I was glad he was there for me.

I grabbed Javier Vazquez in the 5th as SP were now flying off the shelves and I was lucky he was left..



As I mentioned before, I was happy as all heck when Adam Dunn lasted until the late/mid 6th round to give me the 40 HR from 1b that I wanted...I wanted to Go SP in the 6th, but with Dunn sitting there and the fact that not one SP stood out to me in the bunch/tier I was looking at, I took Dunn.



So essentially in 6 rounds I had a complete Infield in Dunn, Phillips, Jeter and Wright. A power/speed OF in Werth and a 200k Pitcher...



One other consideration in my thought process is that If I can help it, I prefer not to flll my OF too early because I have witnessed decent OF being available in the much later rounds.



I made two more reaches throughout the draft I felt. They were done on purpose. In rd 7, I took Alex Rios to add to Werth in the OF. Another power/speed guy that I like. Actually, I really like Rios this year. The other reach I made was Evereth Cabrera in the 10th round. Especially When I already owned Jeter. Speed began going in bunches before this and for my strategy of getting Sbs throughout my entire lineup, I needed one more guy I could count on for 30 Sbs to tie it all together as it related to my roster...



So, as you can see, i have a preference for Power/ speed combos and thats why I made the decision to take Wright. Your analysis of Wrights BABIP and his 2nd half struggles is absolutely correct.

The one thing people must remember is that he was BEANED in the head in early August by a Matt Cain fastball and had a pretty good concussion. He missed a bit of time and possibly wasnt the same when he came back. Add in the fact that the entire Mets lineup was on the DL and that the Mets were a complete mess, and I can give David Wright a pass for his second half. He has just been so reliable up to that point. They have all had a year to play at Citifield and I think in year 2, they will adjust better...



Hope that explains my reason. And I suspect that once the Big money NFBC drafts start, you will see more and more people taking David Wright ahead of where Earlier NFBC ADPs suggested..Its just a guy feeling I have...



[ March 18, 2010, 01:25 PM: Message edited by: SUPERFLY ]

[Navel Lint]

I’m nominating SUPERFLY as the best new MB contributor of 2010.



He is easy to read.



I have a full understanding of his thoughts and reasoning and he writes in a way that keeps the reader interested in what he has to say.



Good luck this year and keep posting.

[Ryan C]

Originally posted by Navel Lint:

I’m nominating SUPERFLY as the best new MB contributor of 2010.



He is easy to read.



I have a full understanding of his thoughts and reasoning and he writes in a way that keeps the reader interested in what he has to say.



Good luck this year and keep posting. We've got a nice bunch of owners in this league and already they have been populating our forum with some interesting stuff. Dave is Superfly here and rotodog over at MB - but either place he is always ready to keep the conversation going.