Nice dont mean squat. Explaining a well reasoned thought process, like SUperfly has volunteered to do, in a smart, calm manner, is something these boards sorely lack.
Suprefly, thanks for sharing part of your team and strategy. With both your explanation of Wright selection and your last post, youve given good food for thought.
Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds
Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds
schwanks.blogspot.com
Little Bits mostly non-related to fantasy sports...alright maybe a little
Little Bits mostly non-related to fantasy sports...alright maybe a little
Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds
Thanks Fellas... I am happy/surprised that someone might actually find some value in me laying out my thought process.
One thing I usually preface any of my opinions with is this statement: Just because its my opinion, doesnt make it correct. Its just my opinion..
Because we are discussing the Rookie NFBC league and I am a rookie, i will give you some background in why I decided to participate.
In truth, I havent even done a straight draft league in more than 5 years. In the past I had done a few in various formats, but I always preferred Auction leagues. I was always better at reading an auction and plotting a strategy. Where I have won many different auction formats in the past, I had never been able to win a straight draft league...maybe a 2nd place, maybe a 3rd place, but I could never master the straight draft league..
My problem is I am impatient and I frustrate easily. During a draft, It would make me nuts to watch a guy fall into my lap and then have the guy right in front of me grab the guy I wanted....
In an auction I found it much easier to construct a winning roster because in theory, I could have any player I wanted if I wanted to pay the price... And that was a completely different concept than a straight draft...
In the last 5 years of not participating in straight draft, I now have a much better understanding of roster construction than I did 5 years ago. So when I saw Ryan post about this Rookie NFBC style league, I decided to see if I could compete in this format again...Especially since the NFBC is becoming more and more prominent and relevant ..
In the end, I have no idea how I will do. In the end, i have no idea if Wright will bounce back to previous levels either....it will take 6 months to know the answers to both questions, although I suspect we will have an idea about Wright after 2-3 months...
After 6 months I would love to review this thread. If Wright doesnt bounce back, I will be more than happy to come back publicly and admit defeat and justify any response that questioned Wrights ability to be a 25/25 guy again with a .300 avg... As we sit here today though, my brain still tells me it was worth the gamble....
Good luck to all participating...
One thing I usually preface any of my opinions with is this statement: Just because its my opinion, doesnt make it correct. Its just my opinion..
Because we are discussing the Rookie NFBC league and I am a rookie, i will give you some background in why I decided to participate.
In truth, I havent even done a straight draft league in more than 5 years. In the past I had done a few in various formats, but I always preferred Auction leagues. I was always better at reading an auction and plotting a strategy. Where I have won many different auction formats in the past, I had never been able to win a straight draft league...maybe a 2nd place, maybe a 3rd place, but I could never master the straight draft league..
My problem is I am impatient and I frustrate easily. During a draft, It would make me nuts to watch a guy fall into my lap and then have the guy right in front of me grab the guy I wanted....
In an auction I found it much easier to construct a winning roster because in theory, I could have any player I wanted if I wanted to pay the price... And that was a completely different concept than a straight draft...
In the last 5 years of not participating in straight draft, I now have a much better understanding of roster construction than I did 5 years ago. So when I saw Ryan post about this Rookie NFBC style league, I decided to see if I could compete in this format again...Especially since the NFBC is becoming more and more prominent and relevant ..
In the end, I have no idea how I will do. In the end, i have no idea if Wright will bounce back to previous levels either....it will take 6 months to know the answers to both questions, although I suspect we will have an idea about Wright after 2-3 months...
After 6 months I would love to review this thread. If Wright doesnt bounce back, I will be more than happy to come back publicly and admit defeat and justify any response that questioned Wrights ability to be a 25/25 guy again with a .300 avg... As we sit here today though, my brain still tells me it was worth the gamble....
Good luck to all participating...
Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds
Generally speaking, I think that people are loathe to discuss their strategies. This is because if you are in one of the multi-league events (main, doubleplay or auction) then your competitors are potentially either learning from your thought process or getting insight on how the compettiton is rolling.
Once the drafts are complete, these boards are very quiet in comparison to November-March. I realize you are only doing a satellite but it still is refreshing and educational to actually see/hear someone's thought processes...even if you dont agree.
As far as Wright goes, I dont think the issue is whether he bounces back, it is whether your gamble on his return to form was worth the slot in which you drafted him. But I dont see your risk as being much greater then gambling on say Tulo (one good season after a bad one, after a good one, after a bad one), Mauer, Kemp or other guys who have track records that are either short or spotty.
Once the drafts are complete, these boards are very quiet in comparison to November-March. I realize you are only doing a satellite but it still is refreshing and educational to actually see/hear someone's thought processes...even if you dont agree.
As far as Wright goes, I dont think the issue is whether he bounces back, it is whether your gamble on his return to form was worth the slot in which you drafted him. But I dont see your risk as being much greater then gambling on say Tulo (one good season after a bad one, after a good one, after a bad one), Mauer, Kemp or other guys who have track records that are either short or spotty.
schwanks.blogspot.com
Little Bits mostly non-related to fantasy sports...alright maybe a little
Little Bits mostly non-related to fantasy sports...alright maybe a little
Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds
i truly loved the strategy that he played . if there is ( ANY )player you want don't pass him . take him . all passing him hoping to get him next rd will just make anyone crazy . the filling the infield first plan with 2 stud sp is nice .even if i would have gone longo over wright what does any really know in march .
Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds
Originally posted by Schwks:
Generally speaking, I think that people are loathe to discuss their strategies. This is because if you are in one of the multi-league events (main, doubleplay or auction) then your competitors are potentially either learning from your thought process or getting insight on how the competition is rolling.
Once the drafts are complete, these boards are very quiet in comparison to November-March. I realize you are only doing a satellite but it still is refreshing and educational to actually see/hear someone's thought processes...even if you dont agree.
As far as Wright goes, I dont think the issue is whether he bounces back, it is whether your gamble on his return to form was worth the slot in which you drafted him. But I dont see your risk as being much greater then gambling on say Tulo (one good season after a bad one, after a good one, after a bad one), Mauer, Kemp or other guys who have track records that are either short or spotty. I do agree..Most people probably do not want to discuss there strategies in constructing a roster.
I dont mind personally..And I actually learned more from reading Shawn Childs insights on his blog and another site than from any other source.
Once I decided to take part, I scoured the web for anything he wrote as it pertained to the NFBC style of play. He seems to be extremely candid in discussing his thoughts and philosophies without ever revealing the exact players he may be targeting in any given year.. I thought it to be refreshing..He has pretty much laid out the entire playbook and tells you exactly how one goes about winning...Think about that for a minute. If someone would tell you exactly what you need to do to be successful in anything we do in life, we would all be winners if we listened..
So, if one of the best NFBC participants in history is willing to lay out his thoughts without ever worrying about the competition reading it, I am going to stand up and listen to it....Because he is a winner and doesnt mind sharing his thoughts, he is well respected and deservedly so...
One thing I learned a long time ago is to be a winner at something doesn't require reinventing the wheel... You Just need to find someone that has a history of success and do as they do...As i said earlier, reading Shawns insights was a big part of my planning...
SO a big Thanks to Shawn!!!
PS: Shawn if you read this, please change the color scheme of your blog..While I read and re-read your posts a number of times, the black and Gray format strains the eyes...
[ March 19, 2010, 10:59 AM: Message edited by: SUPERFLY ]
Generally speaking, I think that people are loathe to discuss their strategies. This is because if you are in one of the multi-league events (main, doubleplay or auction) then your competitors are potentially either learning from your thought process or getting insight on how the competition is rolling.
Once the drafts are complete, these boards are very quiet in comparison to November-March. I realize you are only doing a satellite but it still is refreshing and educational to actually see/hear someone's thought processes...even if you dont agree.
As far as Wright goes, I dont think the issue is whether he bounces back, it is whether your gamble on his return to form was worth the slot in which you drafted him. But I dont see your risk as being much greater then gambling on say Tulo (one good season after a bad one, after a good one, after a bad one), Mauer, Kemp or other guys who have track records that are either short or spotty. I do agree..Most people probably do not want to discuss there strategies in constructing a roster.
I dont mind personally..And I actually learned more from reading Shawn Childs insights on his blog and another site than from any other source.
Once I decided to take part, I scoured the web for anything he wrote as it pertained to the NFBC style of play. He seems to be extremely candid in discussing his thoughts and philosophies without ever revealing the exact players he may be targeting in any given year.. I thought it to be refreshing..He has pretty much laid out the entire playbook and tells you exactly how one goes about winning...Think about that for a minute. If someone would tell you exactly what you need to do to be successful in anything we do in life, we would all be winners if we listened..
So, if one of the best NFBC participants in history is willing to lay out his thoughts without ever worrying about the competition reading it, I am going to stand up and listen to it....Because he is a winner and doesnt mind sharing his thoughts, he is well respected and deservedly so...
One thing I learned a long time ago is to be a winner at something doesn't require reinventing the wheel... You Just need to find someone that has a history of success and do as they do...As i said earlier, reading Shawns insights was a big part of my planning...
SO a big Thanks to Shawn!!!
PS: Shawn if you read this, please change the color scheme of your blog..While I read and re-read your posts a number of times, the black and Gray format strains the eyes...
[ March 19, 2010, 10:59 AM: Message edited by: SUPERFLY ]
Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds
Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:
quote:Originally posted by SUPERFLY:
But Todd Zola said something that I completely agreed with. David Wright is either a 10-15 HR guy now or still a 25-30 HR guy. Not something in between. I see him returning to the 25-30 HR level this year. I just dont see how a talented 27 year old player can all of a sudden become a 10 HR guy after he is a 25-30+ HR guy... its not like he is some overweight, 35 yr old DH and his skills completely eroded all of a sudden as father time crept up....Todd said that?
What is the reasoning?
Wright was more of a powerful hitter before playing in a ballpark that was his kryptonite. Not that that is the only reason, but it appears to be one of the primary reasons.
Now that he has had a year of seasoning at Citi, I would not expect another 10 home run season or another power BC (Before Citi)season. I would expect something in between. Not common sense, just my sense.
Todd, if you see this, what is your reasoning? [/QUOTE]From '05 to '08 Wright averaged 29 HR.
Last year he hit 10.
Most projection models will do some sort of weighted average, accounting for the fact Shea played to decrease HR and last season Citi Field actually was favorable for HR and will come out with a projection of 21-23. My site resembles that remark.
But in the past 5 season, Wright has never once hit 21-23 HR -- 27, 26, 30, 33, 10.
He can be one of three things...
1. The 29 HR guy from '05-'08
B. The 10 HR guy from last season
III. Something in between
He has never been #3, why should be become that now?
Maybe my quoted statement should have been I believe he will be the 29 HR guy that may lose a HR or two if indeed Citi Field plays to decrease HR.
FWIW, when I say "29 HR guy", that is 29 +/- a couple, same with the "10 HR guy."
quote:Originally posted by SUPERFLY:
But Todd Zola said something that I completely agreed with. David Wright is either a 10-15 HR guy now or still a 25-30 HR guy. Not something in between. I see him returning to the 25-30 HR level this year. I just dont see how a talented 27 year old player can all of a sudden become a 10 HR guy after he is a 25-30+ HR guy... its not like he is some overweight, 35 yr old DH and his skills completely eroded all of a sudden as father time crept up....Todd said that?
What is the reasoning?
Wright was more of a powerful hitter before playing in a ballpark that was his kryptonite. Not that that is the only reason, but it appears to be one of the primary reasons.
Now that he has had a year of seasoning at Citi, I would not expect another 10 home run season or another power BC (Before Citi)season. I would expect something in between. Not common sense, just my sense.
Todd, if you see this, what is your reasoning? [/QUOTE]From '05 to '08 Wright averaged 29 HR.
Last year he hit 10.
Most projection models will do some sort of weighted average, accounting for the fact Shea played to decrease HR and last season Citi Field actually was favorable for HR and will come out with a projection of 21-23. My site resembles that remark.
But in the past 5 season, Wright has never once hit 21-23 HR -- 27, 26, 30, 33, 10.
He can be one of three things...
1. The 29 HR guy from '05-'08
B. The 10 HR guy from last season
III. Something in between
He has never been #3, why should be become that now?
Maybe my quoted statement should have been I believe he will be the 29 HR guy that may lose a HR or two if indeed Citi Field plays to decrease HR.
FWIW, when I say "29 HR guy", that is 29 +/- a couple, same with the "10 HR guy."
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over 1300 projections and 500 player profiles
Standings and Roster Tracker perfect for DC and cutline leagues
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Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds
Originally posted by ToddZ:
quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:
quote:Originally posted by SUPERFLY:
But Todd Zola said something that I completely agreed with. David Wright is either a 10-15 HR guy now or still a 25-30 HR guy. Not something in between. I see him returning to the 25-30 HR level this year. I just dont see how a talented 27 year old player can all of a sudden become a 10 HR guy after he is a 25-30+ HR guy... its not like he is some overweight, 35 yr old DH and his skills completely eroded all of a sudden as father time crept up....Todd said that?
What is the reasoning?
Wright was more of a powerful hitter before playing in a ballpark that was his kryptonite. Not that that is the only reason, but it appears to be one of the primary reasons.
Now that he has had a year of seasoning at Citi, I would not expect another 10 home run season or another power BC (Before Citi)season. I would expect something in between. Not common sense, just my sense.
Todd, if you see this, what is your reasoning? [/QUOTE]From '05 to '08 Wright averaged 29 HR.
Last year he hit 10.
Most projection models will do some sort of weighted average, accounting for the fact Shea played to decrease HR and last season Citi Field actually was favorable for HR and will come out with a projection of 21-23. My site resembles that remark.
But in the past 5 season, Wright has never once hit 21-23 HR -- 27, 26, 30, 33, 10.
He can be one of three things...
1. The 29 HR guy from '05-'08
B. The 10 HR guy from last season
III. Something in between
He has never been #3, why should be become that now?
Maybe my quoted statement should have been I believe he will be the 29 HR guy that may lose a HR or two if indeed Citi Field plays to decrease HR.
FWIW, when I say "29 HR guy", that is 29 +/- a couple, same with the "10 HR guy." [/QUOTE]Todd, I don't have the numbers on me right now, but couldn't you read something into the fact that the Mets and their opponents scored one of the lowest if not the lowest numbers of homeruns at home and on the road? Can't that just be a bad one year sample where the Mets and especially their opponents didn't hit homers on the road? I don't know about you, but I didn't think Mets pitching was that spectacular last year. In fact, here is something I do have here now: the MLB average groundball percentage was 44.9%, while the Mets pitchers averaged 44.2%. That doesn't make me think they were especially good at preventing homers.
Greg Rybarczyk uses Hit Tracker data to further argue this point in this year's Hardball Times annual. I'd recommend that to anyone who's interested.
[ March 19, 2010, 01:38 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]
quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:
quote:Originally posted by SUPERFLY:
But Todd Zola said something that I completely agreed with. David Wright is either a 10-15 HR guy now or still a 25-30 HR guy. Not something in between. I see him returning to the 25-30 HR level this year. I just dont see how a talented 27 year old player can all of a sudden become a 10 HR guy after he is a 25-30+ HR guy... its not like he is some overweight, 35 yr old DH and his skills completely eroded all of a sudden as father time crept up....Todd said that?
What is the reasoning?
Wright was more of a powerful hitter before playing in a ballpark that was his kryptonite. Not that that is the only reason, but it appears to be one of the primary reasons.
Now that he has had a year of seasoning at Citi, I would not expect another 10 home run season or another power BC (Before Citi)season. I would expect something in between. Not common sense, just my sense.
Todd, if you see this, what is your reasoning? [/QUOTE]From '05 to '08 Wright averaged 29 HR.
Last year he hit 10.
Most projection models will do some sort of weighted average, accounting for the fact Shea played to decrease HR and last season Citi Field actually was favorable for HR and will come out with a projection of 21-23. My site resembles that remark.
But in the past 5 season, Wright has never once hit 21-23 HR -- 27, 26, 30, 33, 10.
He can be one of three things...
1. The 29 HR guy from '05-'08
B. The 10 HR guy from last season
III. Something in between
He has never been #3, why should be become that now?
Maybe my quoted statement should have been I believe he will be the 29 HR guy that may lose a HR or two if indeed Citi Field plays to decrease HR.
FWIW, when I say "29 HR guy", that is 29 +/- a couple, same with the "10 HR guy." [/QUOTE]Todd, I don't have the numbers on me right now, but couldn't you read something into the fact that the Mets and their opponents scored one of the lowest if not the lowest numbers of homeruns at home and on the road? Can't that just be a bad one year sample where the Mets and especially their opponents didn't hit homers on the road? I don't know about you, but I didn't think Mets pitching was that spectacular last year. In fact, here is something I do have here now: the MLB average groundball percentage was 44.9%, while the Mets pitchers averaged 44.2%. That doesn't make me think they were especially good at preventing homers.
Greg Rybarczyk uses Hit Tracker data to further argue this point in this year's Hardball Times annual. I'd recommend that to anyone who's interested.
[ March 19, 2010, 01:38 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]
Chance favors the prepared mind.
Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds
I will let Todd answer the last question.
But In taking David wright with the 7 pick, I had to assess whether last season was a fluke or a new standard for him....I know many people that are much smarter than I can run some numbers to make a point or disprove a point. And there is nothing wrong with that. I usually like to see numerical evidence when making decisions like this.
But do we sometimes over analyze such things every which way we can? I suspect we do...
But sometimes the answer is a lot more normal than we think. One thing to remember is that this game is played by people. Baseball players are people too. The things that influence our behavior daily also influence/affect baseball players.
Again i will point to the Beaning Wright took to the head in early August. First he had a pretty good concussion. That would affect anyone. Second, try to picture yourself in the batters box shortly after getting beaned in the head....
Add in the the very real possibility that after every other star on that team was shut down for the season, he may have simply lost a little desire to carry the club himself.Throw in the media and the pressure to come back from the beaning, and I can see a guy that lost a little something..
Then we have this:
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseb ... _mets.html
Something I read a couple weeks ago... It certainly leads me to believe that David Wright and others in NY were completely different hitters than what made them comfortable.. I have seen reputable websites do analysis on this opposite field hitting and have come to the conclusion that D wright and the Mets as a whole were a mess last season because they were ill advised by management to go to the opposite field....Not encouraged, but drilled...
They have abandoned this thought for the upcoming season. So maybe some guy named Tony Bernazrd had more of an affect on D Wright than we could even try to quantify in any numerical based analysis..
Read the story that is linked and maybe you come to the same conclusion I have. Human intervention and instructions from upper management severely affected the way the Mets hit last year.. David Wright included...
But In taking David wright with the 7 pick, I had to assess whether last season was a fluke or a new standard for him....I know many people that are much smarter than I can run some numbers to make a point or disprove a point. And there is nothing wrong with that. I usually like to see numerical evidence when making decisions like this.
But do we sometimes over analyze such things every which way we can? I suspect we do...
But sometimes the answer is a lot more normal than we think. One thing to remember is that this game is played by people. Baseball players are people too. The things that influence our behavior daily also influence/affect baseball players.
Again i will point to the Beaning Wright took to the head in early August. First he had a pretty good concussion. That would affect anyone. Second, try to picture yourself in the batters box shortly after getting beaned in the head....
Add in the the very real possibility that after every other star on that team was shut down for the season, he may have simply lost a little desire to carry the club himself.Throw in the media and the pressure to come back from the beaning, and I can see a guy that lost a little something..
Then we have this:
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseb ... _mets.html
Something I read a couple weeks ago... It certainly leads me to believe that David Wright and others in NY were completely different hitters than what made them comfortable.. I have seen reputable websites do analysis on this opposite field hitting and have come to the conclusion that D wright and the Mets as a whole were a mess last season because they were ill advised by management to go to the opposite field....Not encouraged, but drilled...
They have abandoned this thought for the upcoming season. So maybe some guy named Tony Bernazrd had more of an affect on D Wright than we could even try to quantify in any numerical based analysis..
Read the story that is linked and maybe you come to the same conclusion I have. Human intervention and instructions from upper management severely affected the way the Mets hit last year.. David Wright included...
Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds
Dave, just a FYI, that my comments weren't about your personal selection, but the Mets' park since it came up. If Wright hits 15 homers with 25 steals and a good BA from a good spot in the line-up he will still be more valuable than some first rounders so I wouldn't worry about it.
Everyone (except me and Doughy) seems to be riding on a one-year park effect that is perhaps flukey and my interest is in that.
Everyone (except me and Doughy) seems to be riding on a one-year park effect that is perhaps flukey and my interest is in that.
Chance favors the prepared mind.
Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds
One other thing...Wright's adp is 13. SO we are talking 6 spot differential...not even half of a round.
schwanks.blogspot.com
Little Bits mostly non-related to fantasy sports...alright maybe a little
Little Bits mostly non-related to fantasy sports...alright maybe a little
Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds
We touched on this a few months back...
http://nfbcboards.fanball.com/cgi-bin/u ... p=2#000027
I said this then and still believe it to be true...
Gut says after 3 years, the numbers will suggest Citi suppresses HR, but the fact is, after 1 season, it aided them.
http://nfbcboards.fanball.com/cgi-bin/u ... p=2#000027
I said this then and still believe it to be true...
Gut says after 3 years, the numbers will suggest Citi suppresses HR, but the fact is, after 1 season, it aided them.
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over 1300 projections and 500 player profiles
Standings and Roster Tracker perfect for DC and cutline leagues
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Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds
I also see nothing wrong with the Wright pick. It's so easy to put more weight into last year's season than the previous 2 or 3 seasons combined. It's also difficult for an owner to step outside the box and ignore ADP, especially a rookie owner.
As for the concern over Wright's counting stats (runs, rbi), there is a good possibility that J Reyes will be back in late April and Carlos Beltran should return by mid May. That's still 5 months of baseball where he will be in the lineup with those guys. There's no guarantee that these players won't suffer a setback, and we are talking about the Mets' medical staff (didn't they advise Beltran not to have knee surgery?), but the top third of the lineup could be looking awfully good before June 1st.
As for the other rookies in this league, look for many owners to start posting their teams from the main event and DP after next weekend (march 26-28). Some give a brief sentence or two defending their selections (if I remember correctly). It's always fun to read and pick out which teams look like the best as we approach opening day.
Ryan, Superfly, others: Good luck with this league. It should be a lot of fun no doubt.
As for the concern over Wright's counting stats (runs, rbi), there is a good possibility that J Reyes will be back in late April and Carlos Beltran should return by mid May. That's still 5 months of baseball where he will be in the lineup with those guys. There's no guarantee that these players won't suffer a setback, and we are talking about the Mets' medical staff (didn't they advise Beltran not to have knee surgery?), but the top third of the lineup could be looking awfully good before June 1st.
As for the other rookies in this league, look for many owners to start posting their teams from the main event and DP after next weekend (march 26-28). Some give a brief sentence or two defending their selections (if I remember correctly). It's always fun to read and pick out which teams look like the best as we approach opening day.
Ryan, Superfly, others: Good luck with this league. It should be a lot of fun no doubt.
Richard Kulaski
Fairview, TN
Fairview, TN
Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds
Thanks Rich - good luck in your drafts as well.
Mastersball
“You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else.” - Albert Einstein
“You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else.” - Albert Einstein
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High Octane Baseball
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Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds
Rookie here as well and a little bummed at missing out on this....been so focused on the double play online league that I missed this...
Good job peeps
Good job peeps
Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds
Originally posted by bjoak:
Dave, just a FYI, that my comments weren't about your personal selection, but the Mets' park since it came up. If Wright hits 15 homers with 25 steals and a good BA from a good spot in the line-up he will still be more valuable than some first rounders so I wouldn't worry about it.
Everyone (except me and Doughy) seems to be riding on a one-year park effect that is perhaps flukey and my interest is in that. Actually Bjoak, I wasnt referring to your comment specifically... It was more of a general comment on this new age of analysis... I think we try so hard to analyze and quantify things that sometimes we forget that baseball players are people too...Sometimes numbers and uber intelligent analysis will never be able to answer certain things. This is one of those instances that I am trusting my gut instead of my reason..
I am a logical person myself..And many times mathematical logic prevails. But logic doesnt always mean a mathematical equation to me. I use mathematical logic and common sense logic to find answers in this game. This just happens to be an instance that i feel common sense logic prevails over mathematical logic for some reason..
As I said before, many folks smarter than I can point to mathematical and statistical reasons for Wrights decline. And when they do, the arguments are compelling, if not correct. In this specific instance I chose to go with my gut over statistical reasoning....But it also does not mean my gut is right and I appreciate any well meaning conversation and input others have. Someone elses input may open my eyes and change my mind someday... And when people smarter than me are talking, I am usually listening... So continue posting ...We may both learn something in the process...
Dave, just a FYI, that my comments weren't about your personal selection, but the Mets' park since it came up. If Wright hits 15 homers with 25 steals and a good BA from a good spot in the line-up he will still be more valuable than some first rounders so I wouldn't worry about it.
Everyone (except me and Doughy) seems to be riding on a one-year park effect that is perhaps flukey and my interest is in that. Actually Bjoak, I wasnt referring to your comment specifically... It was more of a general comment on this new age of analysis... I think we try so hard to analyze and quantify things that sometimes we forget that baseball players are people too...Sometimes numbers and uber intelligent analysis will never be able to answer certain things. This is one of those instances that I am trusting my gut instead of my reason..
I am a logical person myself..And many times mathematical logic prevails. But logic doesnt always mean a mathematical equation to me. I use mathematical logic and common sense logic to find answers in this game. This just happens to be an instance that i feel common sense logic prevails over mathematical logic for some reason..
As I said before, many folks smarter than I can point to mathematical and statistical reasons for Wrights decline. And when they do, the arguments are compelling, if not correct. In this specific instance I chose to go with my gut over statistical reasoning....But it also does not mean my gut is right and I appreciate any well meaning conversation and input others have. Someone elses input may open my eyes and change my mind someday... And when people smarter than me are talking, I am usually listening... So continue posting ...We may both learn something in the process...
Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds
Going with the "ball players are people too" theory only enhances being a little more leary with Wright. The more things have changed over the last year, the more they have stayed the same.
Beltran is out, Reyes is out. Wright is playing half his games at Citi. Only this year, he goes into the season KNOWING that Citi Field kicked his ass last year.
Where is the benefit of a new year?
Wright might conquer Citi Field this year, we don't know. He may very well return first round value as well, but the argument that things surrounding Wright will be different this year or that Wright's mentality will be changed falls short.
Wright hit five home runs at Citi last year, scarier, he hit five away from Citi. He admitted to changing his swing last year, which could mean different things to different people. What it suggests to me was that Citi kicked his ass and that he would give in on power for more opposite field line drives.
Which Wright do we see this year?
Todd's argument falls short with me. Just because he's never hit between 10 and 25, doesen't mean it can't or won't be done. Before last year Wright had never hit as few as 10.
Citi could be Wright's kryptonite. The lion tamer that tamed the lion. He adjusted his swing last year. Perhaps this year another adjustment. Maybe he swings more for the fences and gives up average. We don't know. An unknown, which makes this time of the year, all the more sweeter.
Beltran is out, Reyes is out. Wright is playing half his games at Citi. Only this year, he goes into the season KNOWING that Citi Field kicked his ass last year.
Where is the benefit of a new year?
Wright might conquer Citi Field this year, we don't know. He may very well return first round value as well, but the argument that things surrounding Wright will be different this year or that Wright's mentality will be changed falls short.
Wright hit five home runs at Citi last year, scarier, he hit five away from Citi. He admitted to changing his swing last year, which could mean different things to different people. What it suggests to me was that Citi kicked his ass and that he would give in on power for more opposite field line drives.
Which Wright do we see this year?
Todd's argument falls short with me. Just because he's never hit between 10 and 25, doesen't mean it can't or won't be done. Before last year Wright had never hit as few as 10.
Citi could be Wright's kryptonite. The lion tamer that tamed the lion. He adjusted his swing last year. Perhaps this year another adjustment. Maybe he swings more for the fences and gives up average. We don't know. An unknown, which makes this time of the year, all the more sweeter.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
-
TOXIC ASSETS
- Posts: 764
- Joined: Sat Feb 07, 2009 6:00 pm
Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds
SUPERFLY,
I both like and dislike your draft. I like the fact that you thought it all out and grabbed your guy at 7, regardless of ADP, regardless of what anyone else thought. Wright is still only 27 and could come back in a big way. Kudo's.
I dislike your draft because you waited too long to get a pitcher. You start with a Wright, and he has a "no power" year again, then you better have a stud pitcher there to give you a good shot in those categories. Waiting until round 5 in my opinion was a problem. I personally would have grabbed a starting pitcher in round 2, or 3 at the latest. There would have still been some good quality hitting there in round 5 to take.
I both like and dislike your draft. I like the fact that you thought it all out and grabbed your guy at 7, regardless of ADP, regardless of what anyone else thought. Wright is still only 27 and could come back in a big way. Kudo's.
I dislike your draft because you waited too long to get a pitcher. You start with a Wright, and he has a "no power" year again, then you better have a stud pitcher there to give you a good shot in those categories. Waiting until round 5 in my opinion was a problem. I personally would have grabbed a starting pitcher in round 2, or 3 at the latest. There would have still been some good quality hitting there in round 5 to take.
Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds
Originally posted by TOXIC ASSETS:
SUPERFLY,
I both like and dislike your draft. I like the fact that you thought it all out and grabbed your guy at 7, regardless of ADP, regardless of what anyone else thought. Wright is still only 27 and could come back in a big way. Kudo's.
I dislike your draft because you waited too long to get a pitcher. You start with a Wright, and he has a "no power" year again, then you better have a stud pitcher there to give you a good shot in those categories. Waiting until round 5 in my opinion was a problem. I personally would have grabbed a starting pitcher in round 2, or 3 at the latest. There would have still been some good quality hitting there in round 5 to take. I don't see it. Round two can be a little early for a pitcher and by round three Greinke was gone in the pick before him. Should he take Haren just to say he got a pitcher in round three, albeit a fourth rounder? I agree that ideally, you'd have one in round three this year, but not if he's less than ideal. To me the pitcher he took in five had value that more closely matched the round.
SUPERFLY,
I both like and dislike your draft. I like the fact that you thought it all out and grabbed your guy at 7, regardless of ADP, regardless of what anyone else thought. Wright is still only 27 and could come back in a big way. Kudo's.
I dislike your draft because you waited too long to get a pitcher. You start with a Wright, and he has a "no power" year again, then you better have a stud pitcher there to give you a good shot in those categories. Waiting until round 5 in my opinion was a problem. I personally would have grabbed a starting pitcher in round 2, or 3 at the latest. There would have still been some good quality hitting there in round 5 to take. I don't see it. Round two can be a little early for a pitcher and by round three Greinke was gone in the pick before him. Should he take Haren just to say he got a pitcher in round three, albeit a fourth rounder? I agree that ideally, you'd have one in round three this year, but not if he's less than ideal. To me the pitcher he took in five had value that more closely matched the round.
Chance favors the prepared mind.
Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds
Originally posted by TOXIC ASSETS:
SUPERFLY,
I both like and dislike your draft. I like the fact that you thought it all out and grabbed your guy at 7, regardless of ADP, regardless of what anyone else thought. Wright is still only 27 and could come back in a big way. Kudo's.
I dislike your draft because you waited too long to get a pitcher. You start with a Wright, and he has a "no power" year again, then you better have a stud pitcher there to give you a good shot in those categories. Waiting until round 5 in my opinion was a problem. I personally would have grabbed a starting pitcher in round 2, or 3 at the latest. There would have still been some good quality hitting there in round 5 to take. I cant disagree one bit. I wish I had one more pitcher....This draft unfolded in a strange way with SP and it wasnt until the 4th rd that I realized it. The Sp really started to fly off the shelves in the 3rd and 4th. Here is how it unfolded.
I knew I was targeting Brandon Philips in the second. As I was waiting, I knew someone would take Tim L in the second. He was never an option for me as I wasnt taking TIm L in the second round.
So Tim L went with the pick in front of me. I chose Brandon Philips with the idea that I thought I might get Lucky and have Roy Halladay in the 3rd. Well, that went out the window immediately after I picked B Philips in the second. Roy was the next player taken.
Also remember that I was drafting in the middle. So i kind of had to let the draft unfold in front of me and choose wisely. I couldnt force the action by being close to an end with back to back picks.. So my Philips 2nd rd pick was sandwiched between Tim L before and Roy Halladay right after. At this point I knew I would have to adjust. I was targeting certain players in the mid 3rd and As I adjusted to the Top SP going in bunches, I watched Zack greinke get taken with the pick right in front of me...And he was going to be my selection.
At that point, I saw the next tier of pitching with a number of guys in it that I didnt really see much difference in. So I grabbed Werth with my 3rd pick hoping one would fall to me in the middle of the 4th...I think It left 4-5 pitchers to be able to choose from in the 4th. Off the top of my head, It included Johan, Lester, Beckett, Javier vazquez etc... From mod 3rd to my next pick in the 4th, All pitchers in that tier were taken with the exception on Javier Vazquez and a couple just under him....
So with that, I decided to push my luck a little further and grab Derek Jeter at SS instead. My gamble did pay off and I got Javier Vazquez in the 5th. As I mentioned earlier, I really intended to adjust to the thinning SP pool and grab an SP in the mid/late 6th round for the back to back SP grabs... Problem is that I was watching Adam Dunn fall and fall into my lap and when it was my turn, I could resist taking the 40 HRs from 1b...It was 2 full rounds later than Dunns NFBC ADP suggested he might and it was too tempting to me..
When Adrien Gonzalez was taken with the 17th overall pick and all the top 1st round 1bs gone, I really needed the 40 HR 1b in Dunn there... At that point All the Morales types were now gone.
I really felt to justify my Wright pick in the first round, I had to really get a reliable 40 HR from 1b just in case David Wright doesnt deliver the power I am hoping for.
What happens next is that I see a crap load of mid tier options at SP.. Some I really liked a bit later in the draft...Chad Billingsley, Scott Baker, Gavin Floyd types. So with the 7th pick, I just felt the need to grab one more power/speed combo in Alex Rios. It might have been a bit earlier than others, But I believe in him this season and I wanted the Sbs to add to the rest of the Sbs I had been accumulating with my earlier picks...
I think I grabbed Chad Billingsley in the 8th and Really wanted to grab another SP like Baker/Floyd in the 9th...But both were grabbed I believe..
So basically , from the 7 hole, I really had let the draft unfold in front of me....IF I had to do over again after seeing how the SP's were flying of the shelf, I might have preferred to grab one of my mid tier targets with the 7 pick and see if RIos might fall to me in the 8th...But I took the guy I wanted instead...
When the Bakers and Floyds were leaving the table earlier than i thought, i adjusted and Grabbed John Danks...
In all, a front 4 of Javier Vazquez, Chad Billingsley, John Danks and Ervin Santana isnt all that bad, but I will agree, it is not great....So i will be managing my pitching pretty heavily through FAAB more than anything.
The one thing I made sure to do though, was grab 3 closers and a speculation saves source. If my SP's were going to be a little weak as a whole, I knew I couldnt land in the middle of the pack in saves...So I grabbed Wagner, Lidge and Dotel I think...I grabbed Brandon League late as speculation and FWIW, I really love Brandon league in 2010...
In the end is the SP a little weak? yes...I really needed one more SP somewhere ....I realize it, but I felt I adjusted pretty well to grab as many late saves to help compensate for missing a few of those SP pitching points I might need...
We will have to see how it unfolds...
SUPERFLY,
I both like and dislike your draft. I like the fact that you thought it all out and grabbed your guy at 7, regardless of ADP, regardless of what anyone else thought. Wright is still only 27 and could come back in a big way. Kudo's.
I dislike your draft because you waited too long to get a pitcher. You start with a Wright, and he has a "no power" year again, then you better have a stud pitcher there to give you a good shot in those categories. Waiting until round 5 in my opinion was a problem. I personally would have grabbed a starting pitcher in round 2, or 3 at the latest. There would have still been some good quality hitting there in round 5 to take. I cant disagree one bit. I wish I had one more pitcher....This draft unfolded in a strange way with SP and it wasnt until the 4th rd that I realized it. The Sp really started to fly off the shelves in the 3rd and 4th. Here is how it unfolded.
I knew I was targeting Brandon Philips in the second. As I was waiting, I knew someone would take Tim L in the second. He was never an option for me as I wasnt taking TIm L in the second round.
So Tim L went with the pick in front of me. I chose Brandon Philips with the idea that I thought I might get Lucky and have Roy Halladay in the 3rd. Well, that went out the window immediately after I picked B Philips in the second. Roy was the next player taken.
Also remember that I was drafting in the middle. So i kind of had to let the draft unfold in front of me and choose wisely. I couldnt force the action by being close to an end with back to back picks.. So my Philips 2nd rd pick was sandwiched between Tim L before and Roy Halladay right after. At this point I knew I would have to adjust. I was targeting certain players in the mid 3rd and As I adjusted to the Top SP going in bunches, I watched Zack greinke get taken with the pick right in front of me...And he was going to be my selection.
At that point, I saw the next tier of pitching with a number of guys in it that I didnt really see much difference in. So I grabbed Werth with my 3rd pick hoping one would fall to me in the middle of the 4th...I think It left 4-5 pitchers to be able to choose from in the 4th. Off the top of my head, It included Johan, Lester, Beckett, Javier vazquez etc... From mod 3rd to my next pick in the 4th, All pitchers in that tier were taken with the exception on Javier Vazquez and a couple just under him....
So with that, I decided to push my luck a little further and grab Derek Jeter at SS instead. My gamble did pay off and I got Javier Vazquez in the 5th. As I mentioned earlier, I really intended to adjust to the thinning SP pool and grab an SP in the mid/late 6th round for the back to back SP grabs... Problem is that I was watching Adam Dunn fall and fall into my lap and when it was my turn, I could resist taking the 40 HRs from 1b...It was 2 full rounds later than Dunns NFBC ADP suggested he might and it was too tempting to me..
When Adrien Gonzalez was taken with the 17th overall pick and all the top 1st round 1bs gone, I really needed the 40 HR 1b in Dunn there... At that point All the Morales types were now gone.
I really felt to justify my Wright pick in the first round, I had to really get a reliable 40 HR from 1b just in case David Wright doesnt deliver the power I am hoping for.
What happens next is that I see a crap load of mid tier options at SP.. Some I really liked a bit later in the draft...Chad Billingsley, Scott Baker, Gavin Floyd types. So with the 7th pick, I just felt the need to grab one more power/speed combo in Alex Rios. It might have been a bit earlier than others, But I believe in him this season and I wanted the Sbs to add to the rest of the Sbs I had been accumulating with my earlier picks...
I think I grabbed Chad Billingsley in the 8th and Really wanted to grab another SP like Baker/Floyd in the 9th...But both were grabbed I believe..
So basically , from the 7 hole, I really had let the draft unfold in front of me....IF I had to do over again after seeing how the SP's were flying of the shelf, I might have preferred to grab one of my mid tier targets with the 7 pick and see if RIos might fall to me in the 8th...But I took the guy I wanted instead...
When the Bakers and Floyds were leaving the table earlier than i thought, i adjusted and Grabbed John Danks...
In all, a front 4 of Javier Vazquez, Chad Billingsley, John Danks and Ervin Santana isnt all that bad, but I will agree, it is not great....So i will be managing my pitching pretty heavily through FAAB more than anything.
The one thing I made sure to do though, was grab 3 closers and a speculation saves source. If my SP's were going to be a little weak as a whole, I knew I couldnt land in the middle of the pack in saves...So I grabbed Wagner, Lidge and Dotel I think...I grabbed Brandon League late as speculation and FWIW, I really love Brandon league in 2010...
In the end is the SP a little weak? yes...I really needed one more SP somewhere ....I realize it, but I felt I adjusted pretty well to grab as many late saves to help compensate for missing a few of those SP pitching points I might need...
We will have to see how it unfolds...
Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds
As Todd Zola said over on the Mastersball forums, this draft was a perfect example of "Draft the Pitcher, not the round".
I waited until the 5th to start my rotation much like a few others.
As far as Wright being taken, the 1st round is the first round. If Wrights adp is 13 and I have the 7th pick, believing the 10 homers were an outlier, I wouldn't care if it is 6 or 8 spots to early.
I certainly didn't care when I took Choo in the 4th knowing he would never get back to me at 5.12 even though his adp says different. The value of Choo changed for me with each pick I made before selecting him (gotta credit Mastersball once again for that) and the adp info told me I needed to get him because that was my only chance.
I can't wait for the season to start, this is going to be a fun league with a GREAT group of people to compete against. With Todd Zola and all the Mastersball studs, Ryan for putting this together, Mike Ladd(Viper)and all his honest strategy talk and Brian and his analysis(Bjoak) we couldn't have asked for anything more. I think everyone got much better before we drafted and the talk over at MB after has been invaluable.
Jim
I waited until the 5th to start my rotation much like a few others.
As far as Wright being taken, the 1st round is the first round. If Wrights adp is 13 and I have the 7th pick, believing the 10 homers were an outlier, I wouldn't care if it is 6 or 8 spots to early.
I certainly didn't care when I took Choo in the 4th knowing he would never get back to me at 5.12 even though his adp says different. The value of Choo changed for me with each pick I made before selecting him (gotta credit Mastersball once again for that) and the adp info told me I needed to get him because that was my only chance.
I can't wait for the season to start, this is going to be a fun league with a GREAT group of people to compete against. With Todd Zola and all the Mastersball studs, Ryan for putting this together, Mike Ladd(Viper)and all his honest strategy talk and Brian and his analysis(Bjoak) we couldn't have asked for anything more. I think everyone got much better before we drafted and the talk over at MB after has been invaluable.
Jim
Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds
Just a side not about the first round in general this season...
Normally, if you "graph" a draft, you will see picks go down the ladder, decreasing in value steadily for the first 3 rounds, with the largest slope in the first round.
This year, in terms of value in a vacuum, while everyone's little black box is different, #5-#15 is as flat as I have ever seen it. Usually, the advice in the first round is not to jump to many spots down in your rankings as you will be sacrificing value. but not this season. The #5 guy and #15 guy are fundamentally the same guy.
Normally, if you "graph" a draft, you will see picks go down the ladder, decreasing in value steadily for the first 3 rounds, with the largest slope in the first round.
This year, in terms of value in a vacuum, while everyone's little black box is different, #5-#15 is as flat as I have ever seen it. Usually, the advice in the first round is not to jump to many spots down in your rankings as you will be sacrificing value. but not this season. The #5 guy and #15 guy are fundamentally the same guy.
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Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds
Originally posted by ToddZ:
Just a side not about the first round in general this season...
Normally, if you "graph" a draft, you will see picks go down the ladder, decreasing in value steadily for the first 3 rounds, with the largest slope in the first round.
This year, in terms of value in a vacuum, while everyone's little black box is different, #5-#15 is as flat as I have ever seen it. Usually, the advice in the first round is not to jump to many spots down in your rankings as you will be sacrificing value. but not this season. The #5 guy and #15 guy are fundamentally the same guy. Todd just said in one paragraph what I have been trying to say in 5 posts the length of a novel...
After the first 3 or 4 picks, what I saw left was a bunch of 30 dollar guys in various flavors....Wright was one of them...That is what prompted my decision to take Wright..
Want Chocolate? Well there was 30 dollar Slugging 1b chocolate ..
Want Vanilla? Well, there was 30 dollar speedster OF vanilla
Want strawberry? Well there was a 30 dollar Catcher with a great BA or a 30 dollar 3b named Longo..
What I really was in the mood for was some neopolitan...A blend of all 3... Some Slug, some speed, some BA...
If Wright bests the 22 HR projection, then I figure I am getting some sprinkles for free on my neopolitan ice cream...
[ March 20, 2010, 12:40 PM: Message edited by: SUPERFLY ]
Just a side not about the first round in general this season...
Normally, if you "graph" a draft, you will see picks go down the ladder, decreasing in value steadily for the first 3 rounds, with the largest slope in the first round.
This year, in terms of value in a vacuum, while everyone's little black box is different, #5-#15 is as flat as I have ever seen it. Usually, the advice in the first round is not to jump to many spots down in your rankings as you will be sacrificing value. but not this season. The #5 guy and #15 guy are fundamentally the same guy. Todd just said in one paragraph what I have been trying to say in 5 posts the length of a novel...
After the first 3 or 4 picks, what I saw left was a bunch of 30 dollar guys in various flavors....Wright was one of them...That is what prompted my decision to take Wright..
Want Chocolate? Well there was 30 dollar Slugging 1b chocolate ..
Want Vanilla? Well, there was 30 dollar speedster OF vanilla
Want strawberry? Well there was a 30 dollar Catcher with a great BA or a 30 dollar 3b named Longo..
What I really was in the mood for was some neopolitan...A blend of all 3... Some Slug, some speed, some BA...
If Wright bests the 22 HR projection, then I figure I am getting some sprinkles for free on my neopolitan ice cream...
[ March 20, 2010, 12:40 PM: Message edited by: SUPERFLY ]
-
Alfred Newman
- Posts: 5
- Joined: Thu Jan 14, 2010 6:00 pm
Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds
Superfly,
SCS #8 pick in R.L. the one that took Tex and Lincecum. Just returned from Live Double Play 7pm AC draft. Check the entry list, a few boys out of the top shelf. I didn't research who my competiton was until now to avoid losing focus on the job at hand. Maybe a risky move, but we'll see.
Couple of comments, 12th pick was a nice spot as my time limit (60 seconds) doubled. Only 3 times did the clock run out on an owner. I kept track and 17 times a player was picked that was already taken, not counting me throwing Utley in rd 9 to mess with Gekko. Draft took 3 hours 18 minutes, pretty quick as I was told maybe 4 hour draft.
Picking 12th the Tobacco Roadies early picks went as follows:
Pick 12,13 Wright and Crawford MB ADP 14,15
Top 11 ADP went as predicted could have taken 12 Lincecum or 13 Mauer.
Pick 36,37 F Hernandez and Haren. The hitters I was hoping for were gone so went to plan B, two SP. Lincecum, Halladay and CC were gone.
Looking forward to see how the RL team competes.
SCS #8 pick in R.L. the one that took Tex and Lincecum. Just returned from Live Double Play 7pm AC draft. Check the entry list, a few boys out of the top shelf. I didn't research who my competiton was until now to avoid losing focus on the job at hand. Maybe a risky move, but we'll see.
Couple of comments, 12th pick was a nice spot as my time limit (60 seconds) doubled. Only 3 times did the clock run out on an owner. I kept track and 17 times a player was picked that was already taken, not counting me throwing Utley in rd 9 to mess with Gekko. Draft took 3 hours 18 minutes, pretty quick as I was told maybe 4 hour draft.
Picking 12th the Tobacco Roadies early picks went as follows:
Pick 12,13 Wright and Crawford MB ADP 14,15
Top 11 ADP went as predicted could have taken 12 Lincecum or 13 Mauer.
Pick 36,37 F Hernandez and Haren. The hitters I was hoping for were gone so went to plan B, two SP. Lincecum, Halladay and CC were gone.
Looking forward to see how the RL team competes.
Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds
Originally posted by Alfred Newman:
Superfly,
SCS #8 pick in R.L. the one that took Tex and Lincecum. Just returned from Live Double Play 7pm AC draft. Check the entry list, a few boys out of the top shelf. I didn't research who my competiton was until now to avoid losing focus on the job at hand. Maybe a risky move, but we'll see.
Couple of comments, 12th pick was a nice spot as my time limit (60 seconds) doubled. Only 3 times did the clock run out on an owner. I kept track and 17 times a player was picked that was already taken, not counting me throwing Utley in rd 9 to mess with Gekko. Draft took 3 hours 18 minutes, pretty quick as I was told maybe 4 hour draft.
Picking 12th the Tobacco Roadies early picks went as follows:
Pick 12,13 Wright and Crawford MB ADP 14,15
Top 11 ADP went as predicted could have taken 12 Lincecum or 13 Mauer.
Pick 36,37 F Hernandez and Haren. The hitters I was hoping for were gone so went to plan B, two SP. Lincecum, Halladay and CC were gone.
Looking forward to see how the RL team competes. Hey Sin city,
Glad to see someone in the Rookie league pulling for Wright too! Sounds like a good thing you got 2 top pitchers early because it caught some others off guard...
I would love to see if Wright moved up the NFBC ADP board after this weekend though..But if you got him at 12, he may not have moved much...
Good luck!
Superfly,
SCS #8 pick in R.L. the one that took Tex and Lincecum. Just returned from Live Double Play 7pm AC draft. Check the entry list, a few boys out of the top shelf. I didn't research who my competiton was until now to avoid losing focus on the job at hand. Maybe a risky move, but we'll see.
Couple of comments, 12th pick was a nice spot as my time limit (60 seconds) doubled. Only 3 times did the clock run out on an owner. I kept track and 17 times a player was picked that was already taken, not counting me throwing Utley in rd 9 to mess with Gekko. Draft took 3 hours 18 minutes, pretty quick as I was told maybe 4 hour draft.
Picking 12th the Tobacco Roadies early picks went as follows:
Pick 12,13 Wright and Crawford MB ADP 14,15
Top 11 ADP went as predicted could have taken 12 Lincecum or 13 Mauer.
Pick 36,37 F Hernandez and Haren. The hitters I was hoping for were gone so went to plan B, two SP. Lincecum, Halladay and CC were gone.
Looking forward to see how the RL team competes. Hey Sin city,
Glad to see someone in the Rookie league pulling for Wright too! Sounds like a good thing you got 2 top pitchers early because it caught some others off guard...
I would love to see if Wright moved up the NFBC ADP board after this weekend though..But if you got him at 12, he may not have moved much...
Good luck!
Rookie Invitational League First 3 Rounds
Hey Superfly,
You had the courage to go with the guy that you believed in,at the point in the draft where you felt you had to grab him at.That's a perfect example of "total control drafting".Sometimes you've got to throw ADP's out the window.Just don't go drafting a 20th round guy in round 4!Nice job!!!!
You had the courage to go with the guy that you believed in,at the point in the draft where you felt you had to grab him at.That's a perfect example of "total control drafting".Sometimes you've got to throw ADP's out the window.Just don't go drafting a 20th round guy in round 4!Nice job!!!!