The Winning Baseball HQ Team!

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 7:41 am

Originally posted by Gladiators:

No exaggeration at all....do you see the Astros or Athletics competing for the pennant in either division? I don't either. Take a good look at their offenses and that will tell you all you need to know. They both distribute lineups that rank among the worst 3 offensively (with the Pads) in the league. Both teams will be lucky to crest 72 wins on the year. I have Wandy and Anderson both down for 11-12 wins, which makes their combined win total (IMO)just over 20. I wonder if you even read my post before posting. 50% of a pitcher's projected win total comes from how many runs his team scores. This is the ONLY thing you've accounted for. If you think Anderson and Wandy and their bullpens (the A's being the best in baseball, I might add) will allow the same number of runs as their teams will score this is reasonable. That would mean you have them down for ERAs over 4. If their teams score 4.10 runs and they have 3.25 RAs, that is quite a chasm and that's where wins come from.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 7:43 am

Originally posted by Rey:

quote:Originally posted by Gladiators:

No exaggeration at all....do you see the Astros or Athletics competing for the pennant in either division? I don't either. Take a good look at their offenses and that will tell you all you need to know. They both distribute lineups that rank among the worst 3 offensively (with the Pads) in the league. Both teams will be lucky to crest 72 wins on the year. I have Wandy and Anderson both down for 11-12 wins, which makes their combined win total (IMO)just over 20. I get what you're saying, but wins are such a finicky category, that I think you're better off drafting skill as opposed to team. How else do you explain Verlander, Felix, Halladay and Grienke last year? They all played for mediocre/bad teams yet still cranked out more wins than AJ Burnett, Pettite, Lester and Cliff Lee, who all played for offensive juggernauts. Chasing wins is an excercise in futility. [/QUOTE]Punting a category because it is difficult to project is a good way to make sure you lose it. (I know from personaal experience.)

Bama · Post by **Bama** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 7:47 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

So he's just another team that wins his draft using Roto Lab. Roto Labs has a hugh success rate on draft day. It must be over 95% winners. I wonder what the winning rate is at seasons end. Zaleski going to be mad at you, he tried to get you to understand the fine points of that great product but you refuse to listen, shame,shame on you.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 7:50 am

Originally posted by Bama:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

So he's just another team that wins his draft using Roto Lab. Roto Labs has a hugh success rate on draft day. It must be over 95% winners. I wonder what the winning rate is at seasons end. Zaleski going to be mad at you, he tried to get you to understand the fine points of that great product but you refuse to listen, shame,shame on you.

[/QUOTE]He's won every draft he's ever done. Maybe he's need a better Caddy!

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 7:53 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by Gladiators:

No exaggeration at all....do you see the Astros or Athletics competing for the pennant in either division? I don't either. Take a good look at their offenses and that will tell you all you need to know. They both distribute lineups that rank among the worst 3 offensively (with the Pads) in the league. Both teams will be lucky to crest 72 wins on the year. I have Wandy and Anderson both down for 11-12 wins, which makes their combined win total (IMO)just over 20. I wonder if you even read my post before posting. 50% of a pitcher's projected win total comes from how many runs his team scores. This is the ONLY thing you've accounted for. If you think Anderson and Wandy and their bullpens (the A's being the best in baseball, I might add) will allow the same number of runs as their teams will score this is reasonable. That would mean you have them down for ERAs over 4. If their teams score 4.10 runs and they have 3.25 RAs, that is quite a chasm and that's where wins come from. [/QUOTE]It's kind hard to claim the A's bullpen is best in baseball when the season hasn't even started. They were very good last year, but they have enough question marks based on injuries alone.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 7:59 am

Originally posted by Gladiators:

No exaggeration at all....do you see the Astros or Athletics competing for the pennant in either division? I don't either. Take a good look at their offenses and that will tell you all you need to know. They both distribute lineups that rank among the worst 3 offensively (with the Pads) in the league. Both teams will be lucky to crest 72 wins on the year. I have Wandy and Anderson both down for 11-12 wins, which makes their combined win total (IMO)just over 20. You should bet the unders on the season wins, then.

OAK 78

HOU 75

I'm not high on Wandy. His career WHIP around 1.37 was true to form in the first half of last season. He's second half was nice...but the overall sample size leans toward regression to the ugly.

I like Brett Anderson. He's a stud on the rise.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 8:11 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by Gladiators:

No exaggeration at all....do you see the Astros or Athletics competing for the pennant in either division? I don't either. Take a good look at their offenses and that will tell you all you need to know. They both distribute lineups that rank among the worst 3 offensively (with the Pads) in the league. Both teams will be lucky to crest 72 wins on the year. I have Wandy and Anderson both down for 11-12 wins, which makes their combined win total (IMO)just over 20. I wonder if you even read my post before posting. 50% of a pitcher's projected win total comes from how many runs his team scores. This is the ONLY thing you've accounted for. If you think Anderson and Wandy and their bullpens (the A's being the best in baseball, I might add) will allow the same number of runs as their teams will score this is reasonable. That would mean you have them down for ERAs over 4. If their teams score 4.10 runs and they have 3.25 RAs, that is quite a chasm and that's where wins come from. [/QUOTE]It's kind hard to claim the A's bullpen is best in baseball when the season hasn't even started. They were very good last year, but they have enough question marks based on injuries alone. [/QUOTE]Fair enough. My opinion backed by last year's results. More to the point, I would think most analysts wouldn't see the A's losing a lot of their starters' wins in the bullpen.

[ March 31, 2010, 02:12 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 8:19 am

I think one of the biggest mistakes people make is saying he will not get wins because he is on a bad or avg team. Gallardo would be an example. The Brewers are an avg team at best the 5-6 games a week. The day Gallardo pitches they are an excellent team. Great offense and a somewhat capable bullpen.

I tried my best to increase Greinke's win total in my head under this assumption. All I could do is picture Betancourt at the plate and Kendall on deck.....

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 8:21 am

My point remains... these 30 are just a place to start. I'd bet even money that neither Wandy nor Anderson end up to be my stud. I'd also bet even money that whoever DOES end up anchoring my rotation will do better than than the "legitimate" staff anchors on at least half of the other teams in my league.

Last year, we would have been crowing about how lucky we were that we were able to roster Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Johan Santana, Roy Oswalt, etc. And sitting here now, I'm not so upset to pass on the huge 2009 workloads of Lincecum, Verlander, Wainwright, etc.

Just saying... you can analyze Wandy all you want (and granted, his workload was a bit excessive last year too), but to pass judgment that my pitching is weak, well, frankly, EVERYONE'S pitching is weak right now.

[ March 31, 2010, 02:24 PM: Message edited by: RON@HQ ]

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 8:25 am

Originally posted by RON@HQ:

My point remains... these 30 are just a place to start. I'd bet even money that neither Wandy nor Anderson end up to be my stud. I'd also bet even money that whoever DOES end up anchoring my rotation will do better than than the "legitimate" staff anchors on at least half of the other teams in my league.

Last year, we would have been crowing about how lucky we were that we were able to roster Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Johan Santana, Roy Oswalt, etc. And sitting here now, I'm not so upset to pass on the huge 2009 workloads of Lincecum, Verlander, Wainwright, etc.

Just saying... you can analyze Wandy all you want (and granted, his workload was a bit excessive last year too), but to pass judgment that my pitching is weak, well, frankly, EVERYONE'S pitching is weak right now. yours is weaker

Dirt Dogs · Post by **Dirt Dogs** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 8:32 am

Ron has a strategy and he is sticking to it. It's a valid point when you look at injuries and who becomes the anchor on each staff. I guess we all just have to sit back and wait for the season to play out.

Is it sunday yet????

bradybros · Post by **bradybros** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 8:32 am

I think you are right in that most rotlab users come out of the draft at least in the top three. I use rotolab and find it a useful tool at draft time. The key is what projections are used in rotolab. I import projections from HQ but make adjustments- some major, some minor to the numbers I am given. If I think Mark Reynolds is going to hit 40 homers and steal 25 bases despite his .260 average (which he is capable of doing), he will be a 2nd or third round pick for me. If I think he will hit 25 home runs and steal 15 bases and bat .215( which he is also capable of doing) he would be no better than a late middle pick for me. After making rookie mistakes like drafting Ploanco in the 4th round in my first NFBC draft, I believe that my projections and draft ability are more than adequate to compete in this championship. What I am still learning and what still puts me behind such stellar managers like Mr. Childs is my inferior in season management. I am getting better but still a long ways away from players like Childs. This in my opinion is why so many people look good on draft day and yet the same people finish at or near the top every year.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 8:33 am

Originally posted by RON@HQ:

My point remains... these 30 are just a place to start. I'd bet even money that neither Wandy nor Anderson end up to be my stud. I'd also bet even money that whoever DOES end up anchoring my rotation will do better than than the "legitimate" staff anchors on at least half of the other teams in my league.

Last year, we would have been crowing about how lucky we were that we were able to roster Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Johan Santana, Roy Oswalt, etc. And sitting here now, I'm not so upset to pass on the huge 2009 workloads of Lincecum, Verlander, Wainwright, etc.

Just saying... you can analyze Wandy all you want (and granted, his workload was a bit excessive last year too), but to pass judgment that my pitching is weak, well, frankly, EVERYONE'S pitching is weak right now. Ron I have a lot of respect for you. With that said I get your point and completely agree. My issue is I see no candidates on your current staff to do that. If you pull it out I will be the first to congratulate you. If you find 2 guys who pitch like front end starters on waivers you will be the first guy in the history of the nfbc to do it. I also believe a pitcher will not be taken in the first 10 rounds next year by the Shandlerites if it works.

By the way thinking your team is perfect on draft day is called pulling a "Zaleski" glad to see he is not doing that.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 8:49 am

I agree with Mr. Shandler to a degree here, and I think most NFBCers do as well. I think the overall feeling that comes across on the boards and in drafts is hitting over pitching. Pitching is inherently more risky both for perfomrance and injury...which is why on the Diamond League thread yesterdaay, I questioned Shawn about his pitching heavy first 11 picks, which seems to fly in the face of the traditional NFBC school of thought.

I thnk, however, that Mr Shandler's team will find that the FAAB wires in the NFBC will make it difficult to grab the potential aces of which he writes. Im not saying it cant happen, but how many staff aces, that are not rostered in a 15 team league, crop up each year? Maybe 5-10 at most would be my guess.

It will be fun to watch how the theorist does vs the grizzled trench guys of the NFBC either way.

BTW what was thinking on Sonnanstine, if you dont mind a question.

Rey · Post by **Rey** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 9:13 am

It's simply a question of differing strategies...

Shandler subscribes to the idea that you need to mitigate risk, especially early. SP's = risk. Slightest rumor of an injury = risk. As he has stated, he would have passed on Pujols even if he'd have been there at #3 because of the back twinge. He wants to ensure his 1st rounder performs like a 1st rounder. In turn, his 3rd rounder will perform like a 3rd rounder (in all probability). 5th rounder, like a 5th rounder. And so on. Profit is made later...and even then, with risk keenly mitigated.

I've drafted with Shawn for most of my NFBC run (5 out of 7 years I believe). Shawn goes for value. Period. Lincecum drops to him in the 2nd round and he'll snatch him up happily, position be damned. Sure, Lincecum may blow out an elbow...but he can also be the most valuable player in this damn little game. Shawn isn't playing to place in his league, he plays for the 100k. That's the inherent difference. He accepts the risk, and deals with it by stacking his team with high upside, top to bottom. Of all the accolades Shawn receives on here, personal experience has taught me that that is his strength. His ability to deal with the risk that Shandler avoids.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 9:17 am

Hasnt BRaun missed a large chunk of ST with a lower back issue?

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 9:22 am

Originally posted by Rey:

It's simply a question of differing strategies...

Shandler subscribes to the idea that you need to mitigate risk, especially early. SP's = risk. Slightest rumor of an injury = risk. As he has stated, he would have passed on Pujols even if he'd have been there at #3 because of the back twinge. He wants to ensure his 1st rounder performs like a 1st rounder. In turn, his 3rd rounder will perform like a 3rd rounder (in all probability). 5th rounder, like a 5th rounder. And so on. Profit is made later...and even then, with risk keenly mitigated.

I've drafted with Shawn for most of my NFBC run (5 out of 7 years I believe). Shawn goes for value. Period. Lincecum drops to him in the 2nd round and he'll snatch him up happily, position be damned. Sure, Lincecum may blow out an elbow...but he can also be the most valuable player in this damn little game. Shawn isn't playing to place in his league, he plays for the 100k. That's the inherent difference. He accepts the risk, and deals with it by stacking his team with high upside, top to bottom. Of all the accolades Shawn receives on here, personal experience has taught me that that is his strength. His ability to deal with the risk that Shandler avoids. This a great post.

Ron's biggest problem might be during the season when he's more concerned bidding the "right" faab amount as opposed to bidding the "winning" faab amount. At least that's what I've seen in the past from him....

His draft is fine. Very strong in AVG. Solid in runs, SB, RBI and HR.

Weak in W and K. The easiest things to make up. If Wandy and Brett pitch to expectations, he has some wiggle room to add the pitchers he needs.

Chest... continually amazed at how 3 minutes of post draft banter you were not even at gets so much mileage. And if you were there, you would have heard that Dan drafted the best team that day.

[ March 31, 2010, 03:23 PM: Message edited by: JohnZ ]

LONG GONE · Post by **LONG GONE** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 9:26 am

Cliff Lee and Ryan Dempster both came from the FAAB in 2008. 9/10 in the over all rankings owned one of these players. Cliff Lee wins the Cy Young and Ryan Dempster, I believe was runner up in the National league.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 9:31 am

Originally posted by JohnZ:

quote:Originally posted by Rey:

It's simply a question of differing strategies...

Shandler subscribes to the idea that you need to mitigate risk, especially early. SP's = risk. Slightest rumor of an injury = risk. As he has stated, he would have passed on Pujols even if he'd have been there at #3 because of the back twinge. He wants to ensure his 1st rounder performs like a 1st rounder. In turn, his 3rd rounder will perform like a 3rd rounder (in all probability). 5th rounder, like a 5th rounder. And so on. Profit is made later...and even then, with risk keenly mitigated.

I've drafted with Shawn for most of my NFBC run (5 out of 7 years I believe). Shawn goes for value. Period. Lincecum drops to him in the 2nd round and he'll snatch him up happily, position be damned. Sure, Lincecum may blow out an elbow...but he can also be the most valuable player in this damn little game. Shawn isn't playing to place in his league, he plays for the 100k. That's the inherent difference. He accepts the risk, and deals with it by stacking his team with high upside, top to bottom. Of all the accolades Shawn receives on here, personal experience has taught me that that is his strength. His ability to deal with the risk that Shandler avoids. This a great post.

Ron's biggest problem might be during the season when he's more concerned bidding the "right" faab amount as opposed to bidding the "winning" faab amount. At least that's what I've seen in the past from him....

His draft is fine. Very strong in AVG. Solid in runs, SB, RBI and HR.

Weak in W and K. The easiest things to make up. If Wandy and Brett pitch to expectations, he has some wiggle room to add the pitchers he needs.

Chest... continually amazed at how 3 minutes of post draft banter you were not even at gets so much mileage. And if you were there, you would have heard that Dan drafted the best team that day.

[/QUOTE]I love you John, but it is not just me and I have seen it in person too. Roll with the flow on it..

My personal favorite was Jules asked you why David Price 2 years ago and your response was I do not really see any major needs on this team and I can afford to tie up the roster spot. Then you stood us all up for lunch... Hope you are feeling better.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 9:46 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by JohnZ:

quote:Originally posted by Rey:

It's simply a question of differing strategies...

Shandler subscribes to the idea that you need to mitigate risk, especially early. SP's = risk. Slightest rumor of an injury = risk. As he has stated, he would have passed on Pujols even if he'd have been there at #3 because of the back twinge. He wants to ensure his 1st rounder performs like a 1st rounder. In turn, his 3rd rounder will perform like a 3rd rounder (in all probability). 5th rounder, like a 5th rounder. And so on. Profit is made later...and even then, with risk keenly mitigated.

I've drafted with Shawn for most of my NFBC run (5 out of 7 years I believe). Shawn goes for value. Period. Lincecum drops to him in the 2nd round and he'll snatch him up happily, position be damned. Sure, Lincecum may blow out an elbow...but he can also be the most valuable player in this damn little game. Shawn isn't playing to place in his league, he plays for the 100k. That's the inherent difference. He accepts the risk, and deals with it by stacking his team with high upside, top to bottom. Of all the accolades Shawn receives on here, personal experience has taught me that that is his strength. His ability to deal with the risk that Shandler avoids. This a great post.

Ron's biggest problem might be during the season when he's more concerned bidding the "right" faab amount as opposed to bidding the "winning" faab amount. At least that's what I've seen in the past from him....

His draft is fine. Very strong in AVG. Solid in runs, SB, RBI and HR.

Weak in W and K. The easiest things to make up. If Wandy and Brett pitch to expectations, he has some wiggle room to add the pitchers he needs.

Chest... continually amazed at how 3 minutes of post draft banter you were not even at gets so much mileage. And if you were there, you would have heard that Dan drafted the best team that day.

[/QUOTE]I love you John, but it is not just me and I have seen it in person too. Roll with the flow on it..

My personal favorite was Jules asked you why David Price 2 years ago and your response was I do not really see any major needs on this team and I can afford to tie up the roster spot. Then you stood us all up for lunch... Hope you are feeling better. [/QUOTE]ummm... I stood you up because I was catching up with Jules. You left the room as I was talking with her and wasn't finished. Sorry about that.

As for Price, I'm not the only one that takes a flier on a player in the 20's. He was my guy that year. This year, it's Pedro Alvarez. If I miss, it's just one of many that we all eventually waive.

and for the record, I finished four to Dan the one year, and was in the hunt with six weeks to go until he went on a major heater. Same thing happened the next year when Eddie passed me with a huge heater at end of the year. I did draft good teams those years

[ March 31, 2010, 03:49 PM: Message edited by: JohnZ ]

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 9:46 am

"If you find 2 guys who pitch like front end starters on waivers you will be the first guy in the history of the nfbc to do it."

For shame Chest, for shame. Someone did that in our league 2 years ago!!! Ryan Dumpster and Cliff Lee. They kinda helped him out a bit.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 10:59 am

Originally posted by NorCalAtlFan:

"If you find 2 guys who pitch like front end starters on waivers you will be the first guy in the history of the nfbc to do it."

ROFLMAO!!!!

The Godfather of FS · Post by **The Godfather of FS** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 11:06 am

Great seeing you at Citi, and great having Tout Wars there also. Like or not Ron, you're quite a celebrity in Fantasy Baseball circles, and the 14 guys who drafted with you should be honored to be in your league.

He's quite the actor also, for those who'd like to see his work, check out Fantasyland.

It's being released by both Hulu.com and SnagFilms.com as their major film releases this month. The film is actually up now on Snag Films (http://www.snagfilms.com/films/title/fantasyland/) and Hulu. Fantasyland is great viewing for all us fantasy baseball fanatics!

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 12:25 pm

Originally posted by JohnZ:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by JohnZ:

quote:Originally posted by Rey:

It's simply a question of differing strategies...

Shandler subscribes to the idea that you need to mitigate risk, especially early. SP's = risk. Slightest rumor of an injury = risk. As he has stated, he would have passed on Pujols even if he'd have been there at #3 because of the back twinge. He wants to ensure his 1st rounder performs like a 1st rounder. In turn, his 3rd rounder will perform like a 3rd rounder (in all probability). 5th rounder, like a 5th rounder. And so on. Profit is made later...and even then, with risk keenly mitigated.

I've drafted with Shawn for most of my NFBC run (5 out of 7 years I believe). Shawn goes for value. Period. Lincecum drops to him in the 2nd round and he'll snatch him up happily, position be damned. Sure, Lincecum may blow out an elbow...but he can also be the most valuable player in this damn little game. Shawn isn't playing to place in his league, he plays for the 100k. That's the inherent difference. He accepts the risk, and deals with it by stacking his team with high upside, top to bottom. Of all the accolades Shawn receives on here, personal experience has taught me that that is his strength. His ability to deal with the risk that Shandler avoids. This a great post.

Ron's biggest problem might be during the season when he's more concerned bidding the "right" faab amount as opposed to bidding the "winning" faab amount. At least that's what I've seen in the past from him....

His draft is fine. Very strong in AVG. Solid in runs, SB, RBI and HR.

Weak in W and K. The easiest things to make up. If Wandy and Brett pitch to expectations, he has some wiggle room to add the pitchers he needs.

Chest... continually amazed at how 3 minutes of post draft banter you were not even at gets so much mileage. And if you were there, you would have heard that Dan drafted the best team that day.

[/QUOTE]I love you John, but it is not just me and I have seen it in person too. Roll with the flow on it..

My personal favorite was Jules asked you why David Price 2 years ago and your response was I do not really see any major needs on this team and I can afford to tie up the roster spot. Then you stood us all up for lunch... Hope you are feeling better. [/QUOTE]ummm... I stood you up because I was catching up with Jules. You left the room as I was talking with her and wasn't finished. Sorry about that.

As for Price, I'm not the only one that takes a flier on a player in the 20's. He was my guy that year. This year, it's Pedro Alvarez. If I miss, it's just one of many that we all eventually waive.

and for the record, I finished four to Dan the one year, and was in the hunt with six weeks to go until he went on a major heater. Same thing happened the next year when Eddie passed me with a huge heater at end of the year. I did draft good teams those years [/QUOTE]Hey Z, for my records, can I just know what your overall finishes were in those years in which you drafted good teams and competed? Thanks.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 12:28 pm

BTW what was thinking on Sonnanstine, if you dont mind a question.This is a good question, particularly because if you want a frontline starter that will show up later in the year (from the same team, no less) why not pick up Hellickson there?