First draft from the 15th spot

Kurt Steinacher · Post by **Kurt Steinacher** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 2:42 am

Need some advice. First time doing a nfbc draft. I have #15 (go figure), I know take the best avail. but is there any different strategy with 15 teams versus 10. Ive read go after 70 hrs and 70 steals with the first three. Then Ive heard go after bats first. My first two would be Troy T then Jacob E. Unless there is a bigger bat that can provide some power. Still taking Jacob at the #16 for steals. Any info would be greatly app.

Rotties · Post by **Rotties** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 3:19 am

posted March 31, 2010 09:42 AM

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Need some advice. First time doing a nfbc draft. I have #15 (go figure), I know take the best avail. but is there any different strategy with 15 teams versus 10. Ive read go after 70 hrs and 70 steals with the first three. Then Ive heard go after bats first. My first two would be Troy T then Jacob E. Unless there is a bigger bat that can provide some power. Still taking Jacob at the #16 for steals. Any info would be greatly app.

Bad thing about 15 is if you go best available it might be 2 OF's which puts you in a bind for corners/middles later. Don't count on Tulo, no way he lasts til 15. I had the 14 in last Sunday's super and had Cabrera fall & started Cabrera/Rollins. I personally would not take Ellsbury at 16. If it's going to be an OF I'd rather have Upton. You will likely be looking at these at 15: Wright, Rollins, Upton, Holliday, Ellsbury & outside shot of Crawford. I've seen Votto go as high as 19 so if he's on your wish list?????

billywaz · Post by **billywaz** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 4:25 am

In my main event draft, I had the 14.

I had a plan all set, but then Ryan Howard slipped to me. I just couldn't pass on that much power, so I took him. In round 2, I did take Ellsbury, because that combo gives me around 55 HR-65 SB right out of the gate, and Ellsbury also helps offset Howard's potential low average.

I considered Upton there, but knowing pretty much what I planned to do at the 3/4 turn (Kendry Morales), having a total of 25-30 steals from my first 3 would have put me in a pretty big hole with SB.

If you get a big bat in round 1 (35-40 HR's), taking Ellsbury makes sense in my book, but you almost HAVE TO get a big bopper at the 3/4 turn.

I had a plan to get two hitters at the 3/4, but I just couldn't pass on Greinke at 3.14.

If you have no plans for pitchers with your top 4 picks, this is a decent strategy IMO.

I agree with Rotties, don't plan on Tulo being there at 15.

Good luck!

[ March 31, 2010, 10:27 AM: Message edited by: billywaz ]

MGBMARTY · Post by **MGBMARTY** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 4:38 am

Tulo probably not there. I had the 13th pick and have a man crush on J Upton this year that I was not going to shoot myself if he went at 2-1 or 2-2. I got him and Rollins in 2nd then Cruz Greinke in that order Upton 33-20 Rollins 20-32 Cruz 35-20 gets me close to my goal of 80-80 Just an opinion

Marty

billywaz · Post by **billywaz** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 4:51 am

Originally posted by MGBMARTY:

Tulo probably not there. I had the 13th pick and have a man crush on J Upton this year that I was not going to shoot myself if he went at 2-1 or 2-2. I got him and Rollins in 2nd then Cruz Greinke in that order Upton 33-20 Rollins 20-32 Cruz 35-20 gets me close to my goal of 80-80 Just an opinion

Marty Marty,

Those are some nice guys to get to get those 80/80 numbers, and I had the EXACT same start in another league (Rollins, Upton, Greinke, Cruz).

The problem I ran into (at least before the season) was with batting average. Later in the draft you are taking 250-260 hitters all over the place, which only hurt you more.

I'm just hoping they all overachieve and hit a combined .290!

Frozen Tundra · Post by **Frozen Tundra** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 5:12 am

Originally posted by Kurt Steinacher:

Need some advice. First time doing a nfbc draft. I have #15 (go figure), I know take the best avail. but is there any different strategy with 15 teams versus 10. Ive read go after 70 hrs and 70 steals with the first three. Then Ive heard go after bats first. My first two would be Troy T then Jacob E. Unless there is a bigger bat that can provide some power. Still taking Jacob at the #16 for steals. Any info would be greatly app. hey Kurt,

Power Power Power...then speed. Tulo is not going to fall there.

If Howard/Prince/Cabrera/Tex fall there it's a miracle. Don't think twice.

Upton would be an excellent pairing if he's available. He's going to give you power and speed, but I doubt he's going to be there either. Mark Reynolds could be a better choice than Jacoby.

Good luck

MGBMARTY · Post by **MGBMARTY** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 5:57 am

Hey Billy

I know what you mean about BA with those 3 so I tried for guys later on with 280 plus Personally I think Cruz will have a higher average this year Good Luck this year

Marty

Dub · Post by **Dub** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 7:37 am

The cat's out of the bag- Shawn took Tulo at 7 in the $10K Diamond league. He will no longer last to the back half of the draft.

I got lucky with an early draft date. I had the 14th pick. Billz Waz took Rollins at 12 in that draft. I was planing on taking Tulo at 14, but Cabrera fell and I took him instead and what do you know, Tulo was waiting for me at 17.

[ March 31, 2010, 01:38 PM: Message edited by: Dub ]

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 9:40 am

Best year ever for 15. I agree with Marty if Upton is there jump.

I would also not want to wait on a starting pitcher until 5/6, but if I did I would strongly consider doubling up.

I think the ends really make you have to stay disciplined and go best available your first 8 picks.

Easterlin · Post by **Easterlin** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 9:49 am

I went in at #14 spot got the following top 6 picks in this order:

1B Mark Teixeira

OF Carl Crawford

2B Brian Roberts

SP C.C. Sbathia

OF Carlos Lee

RP Jonathan Papelbon

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 9:56 am

I had 15 and went Wright/Upton. I think you can get two top 25 sp at 5/6 turn, but if you want a third, you will probably have to take one at 4 as well. If you dont, I would try to add another in picks 7-11.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 10:56 am

if you had 15 and failed to lock up Halladay, i think you may have missed out on a guy who could have literally won your league for you. while i'm not expecting the big K totals everyone else is, i am expecting premium wins, era and whip.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 10:57 am

diamond league...

King of Queens +1

Everyone else 0

Bobby D · Post by **Bobby D** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 1:22 pm

I drafted from the 15th spot twice so far, here are my 1st 6 picks in each draft. Not sure how helpful it will be, if you want my full draft, pm me.

Draft #1

1.) David Wright

2.) Jacoby Ellsbury

3.) Derek Jeter

4.) Robinson Cano

5.) Jonathan Papelbon

6.) Manny Ramirez

Draft #2

1.) Ian Kinsler

2.) Jacoby Ellsbury

3.) Justin Morneu

4.) Ichiro Suzuki

5.) Jonathan Papelbon

6.) Manny Ramirez

I like the 1st draft better, the 2nd draft was filled with tougher decisions and I couldn't pass on Ichiro even though I didn't want to go heavy on OF to start. Good Luck!

JaserD · Post by **JaserD** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 2:51 pm

FWIW, I think Ellsbury is a great pick at 16. I have him at .300 / 99 / 10 / 61 / 60 which puts as the 10th best overall offensive player on my list. I took him from the 16 spot in my Main with no hesitation.

If you're targeting 300 HR's and 200 SB's, Ells gives you 30% of your SB cat needs in 1 pick. I think he gets undervalued because his peripherals are overlooked, but even w/o the SB, you can count on 1 hand (and maybe a couple fingers) all of the guys projected to hit .300 and score 100 runs. Most of these guys are long gone by pick 16.

There's alot more inventory of power (vs. SB) in the middle rounds (and in the entire draft for that matter) and you do need to target these picks carefully as you're in a power hole compared to most teams after Rd 2 but I believe you can compete if you're picking these "value" power plays in later rounds while others are making 2 or 3 picks just to match Ellsbury's SB's.

I know it's probably not a mainstream strategy (all the mainstream strategies are being tested picks 1-14) and really wouldn't recommend it for any slot other than 15 or maybe 14, but at 15/16 I think you need to be creative, outside the box and fishing where the waters are clear (esp. early in the draft).

My top 6 from 15 were:

1. Lincecum

2. Ellsbury

3. Markakis

4. Lind

5. Gallardo

6. Uggla

Good luck!

Frozen Tundra · Post by **Frozen Tundra** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 5:02 pm

Originally posted by JaserD:

If you're targeting 300 HR's and 200 SB's, Ells gives you 30% of your SB cat needs in 1 pick. I think he gets undervalued because his peripherals are overlooked, but even w/o the SB, you can count on 1 hand (and maybe a couple fingers) all of the guys projected to hit .300 and score 100 runs. Most of these guys are long gone by pick 16.

14 guys had 90 runs or better (Ellsbury didn't have 100 runs in 2009 despite his 70 sbs and has yet to have a 100 R season) and hit for 300 or better. One of those guys is Denard Span, who had equal or better numbers than Ellsbury in every cat except stolen bases. Despite his SB disadvantage, Span could be a better choice than Ellsbury because of his intangibles: he would do anything to make your FB team win, including hitting his own mother. So I would rather take Span at that spot.

Jokes aside, Ellsbury is a good player but not the kind of investment you would want at pick 16. He can swipe 70 bags which is nice, but the HR/RBI hurdle may be tough to overcome with Jacoby's light numbers.

[ March 31, 2010, 11:04 PM: Message edited by: AZSteamers ]

Bobby D · Post by **Bobby D** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 6:15 pm

Originally posted by AZSteamers:

quote:Originally posted by JaserD:

If you're targeting 300 HR's and 200 SB's, Ells gives you 30% of your SB cat needs in 1 pick. I think he gets undervalued because his peripherals are overlooked, but even w/o the SB, you can count on 1 hand (and maybe a couple fingers) all of the guys projected to hit .300 and score 100 runs. Most of these guys are long gone by pick 16.

14 guys had 90 runs or better (Ellsbury didn't have 100 runs in 2009 despite his 70 sbs and has yet to have a 100 R season) and hit for 300 or better. One of those guys is Denard Span, who had equal or better numbers than Ellsbury in every cat except stolen bases. Despite his SB disadvantage, Span could be a better choice than Ellsbury because of his intangibles: he would do anything to make your FB team win, including hitting his own mother. So I would rather take Span at that spot.

Jokes aside, Ellsbury is a good player but not the kind of investment you would want at pick 16. He can swipe 70 bags which is nice, but the HR/RBI hurdle may be tough to overcome with Jacoby's light numbers. [/QUOTE]Well, 100 of Ellsbury's at bats last year came from the 6-9 spot in the batting order. Francona was toying around early in the season with the lineup. You give Ellsbury those 100 at bats in the leadoff slot, I am betting his runs are over 100 easily this year.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 7:04 pm

the guys taking ellsbury at 15/16 failed to recognize that speed was available much later in drafts this year. i can buy ellsbury in the late 2nd (after some of the other top players are off the board)

give me a juan pierre in the 9th round over an ellsbury at pick 15/16. pierre's last 700 at bats in the majors have produced something like 70sb.

heck, a 9th round borbon over ellsbury makes sense too.

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 7:23 pm

Personally I would go Wright or Mauer if one falls to you, then Rollins... if Wright and Mauer are both gone, I'd go Miggy... if he's gone, take the best available OF (Crawford, Upton) then Rollins...

Bobby D · Post by **Bobby D** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 10:43 pm

Originally posted by Gekko:

the guys taking ellsbury at 15/16 failed to recognize that speed was available much later in drafts this year. i can buy ellsbury in the late 2nd (after some of the other top players are off the board)

give me a juan pierre in the 9th round over an ellsbury at pick 15/16. pierre's last 700 at bats in the majors have produced something like 70sb.

heck, a 9th round borbon over ellsbury makes sense too. Ellsbury is the only guy in the draft that is basically guaranteed to steal 55-60 at minimum. I will take the SB to the bank and leave the straight later round judy's to the others.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Wed Mar 31, 2010 11:25 pm

Originally posted by Bobby D:

quote:Originally posted by Gekko:

the guys taking ellsbury at 15/16 failed to recognize that speed was available much later in drafts this year. i can buy ellsbury in the late 2nd (after some of the other top players are off the board)

give me a juan pierre in the 9th round over an ellsbury at pick 15/16. pierre's last 700 at bats in the majors have produced something like 70sb.

heck, a 9th round borbon over ellsbury makes sense too. Ellsbury is the only guy in the draft that is basically guaranteed to steal 55-60 at minimum. I will take the SB to the bank and leave the straight later round judy's to the others. [/QUOTE]ellsbury will get you 7-8 hr. 2 years ago he only had 50sb. i certainly understand why ellsbury is a popular target there. in my system if i value sb at 100%, he is the 3rd offensive player on my board. that is until you realize how much better bargains the "later" speed guys are.

give me Halladay and Pierre any day over Ellsbury and any 9th round pitcher (like B.Anderson).

The Mighty Men · Post by **The Mighty Men** » Thu Apr 01, 2010 12:19 am

Originally posted by Bobby D:

quote:Originally posted by Gekko:

the guys taking ellsbury at 15/16 failed to recognize that speed was available much later in drafts this year. i can buy ellsbury in the late 2nd (after some of the other top players are off the board)

give me a juan pierre in the 9th round over an ellsbury at pick 15/16. pierre's last 700 at bats in the majors have produced something like 70sb.

heck, a 9th round borbon over ellsbury makes sense too. Ellsbury is the only guy in the draft that is basically guaranteed to steal 55-60 at minimum. I will take the SB to the bank and leave the straight later round judy's to the others. [/QUOTE]Pierre. Check his history. Every year he plays full time he gets 58-65 steals. Fact. And now Ozzie will run him every chance he gets.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Apr 01, 2010 12:40 am

Pierre for me too.

Why Ellsbury or Bourn as high as the second and fourth rounds when Pierre will do basically the same job, at a discount, in the ninth round.

Just not that much difference in the players except round number.

Borbon, R Davis, and N Morgan all have the Missouri/Missouri factor, Pierre is proven.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Thu Apr 01, 2010 12:42 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

if you had 15 and failed to lock up Halladay, i think you may have missed out on a guy who could have literally won your league for you. while i'm not expecting the big K totals everyone else is, i am expecting premium wins, era and whip. I would rather pass on Halladay that early and gamble Greinke or King Felix make it to the 3 and 4 turn.In my Jersy League a team picking late started with,

Kemp

Tulo

Zobrist

Greinke

Now i would rather start with this than Halladay at 15.As Jeff Dobies would say in my humble opinion.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Apr 01, 2010 12:45 am

Originally posted by eddiejag:

quote:Originally posted by Gekko:

if you had 15 and failed to lock up Halladay, i think you may have missed out on a guy who could have literally won your league for you. while i'm not expecting the big K totals everyone else is, i am expecting premium wins, era and whip. I would rather pass on Halladay that early and gamble Greinke or King Felix make it to the 3 and 4 turn.In my Jersy League a team picking late started with,

Kemp

Tulo

Zobrist

Greinke

Now i would rather start with this than Halladay at 15.As Jeff Dobies would say in my humble opinion. [/QUOTE]Kemp and Tulo being available at 15 speaks more about the quality of the league than if Halladay on the team is a better choice.