Ruminations of a Rookie

[Schwks]

As a rookie to the main, I came into the season with a bit of trepidation. Spending 1400 on one team was about 3 times what Id ever spent in a season on fantasy sports. Ah but the allure of the big time was too great.



After looking hard at the player pool, I felt that I needed my own strategy. I felt like everyone was already working the 75-75, and I wasnt so sure I agreed with it this year.



In mocks and my slo draft, I was having trouble getting enough power using that formula. I also felt that SP was extremely deep this year with several semi-proven arms on the rise, and a ton of proven talent coming off bad years or injuries.



I felt that I wanted to get 120-60 with a 280 plus avg after 4 picks. I also wanted two sp, two of, 1b and 3b, along with another position player after 7 rounds.



My thought was that at 120-60, my next ten offensive players would have to average 17 hrs and 12 sbs, somewhat manageable numbers.



I also felt that the closer pool was very strange this year in that there were so many injuries and unsettled spots. I wanted one of my "undertier" of Bailey, Marmol or Wilson. I leaned away from Bailey since he had microfracture surgery, a procedure which attempts to cure the incureable and has not been proven successful.



On my birthday the draft spots were issued. I got my last choice at 15 (I was shooting for 9). I then spent 10 days trying to decide on my first four picks.



Mike D, the headhunters, a veteran gave me massive amounts of free advice and acted as a sounding board. I was praying for Tulo, but felt like he would not be there. I locked on to J Upton as a guy who had a second round floor and a high first round ceiling. I then wrestled with D Wright, REynolds, Rollins and Votto as potential second picks.



I am a Mets fan and hate to select anything Mets...teh organization is absurd and nothing good fantasy wise seems to emanate from Citi.



But in the end, I decided that just one year ago I posted that he was as close to a fanasy sure thing as you could get: Young, injury-free, consistent and he plays a shallow position.



1-2 So I started with Wright and Upton. I am confident in Upton and cross my fingers on Wright.



At the 3-4 turn I was really hoping for Kendry to make it to me. Early intel suggested that it would be very close. I also wanted Cruz, sine I felt he was a potential 30-20 guy whose avg I could handle because the other three guys, I project at 290 +. Both were there and I finished 4 rounds with projected 115 hr and 60 sb with a 28-+ avg.



My plan was to get two SPs at 5-6. I hoped that this would not be a crazy draft, with sps running early. The 3 guys I liked were Nolasco, Kershaw and Ubaldo for their k's, and upside. I settled on Kershaw and Ubaldo. I later felt Nolasco would have been the better pick.



At 7 I wanted a position other then 1b, 3b, sp and of. I love Lopez this year. I feel like he has as proven potential to move into upper echelon of 2b and is hitting in middle of Mariners lineup. He has 30 hr potental and I dont think he will be an avg drain.



In my second 7, I wanted two sps, an under tier RP, a ss and potentially a speed of.



Things fell apart a the 7-8 turn. I took Alexei Ram at 8.1. SPs Hamels, Lee and Bill were still there. All of speed OFs, Quentin still there. I feel like ALexei does not give much of an edge over a guy like Theriot, who can be had 10 rds later. But at the draft I did not see my issue and felt good. In retropsect, I go Hamels.



At 9, closers were starting to run. Valverde, Wilson, Cordero went in 8th. I decided to take Marmol, who I loved this year. I then took Montero at C, a guy who I loved early and I had more mixed feelings on. Again I think that these two picks left me hurting for sps...the whole Oswalt, Zambrano, Price, Lilly tier went before I could pick again. I also missed on top 5-6 speed ofs who all went in 10th.



At the break, I kind of panicked. My sp was short and a lot of the options I thought would be around in rds 12-15 were already gone!

So were the chicken wings.



At 11 I decided I needed a sp. I liked de la rosa a lot. I wanted an NL guy with K potential. ALso feel like NL West has some weaker hitting opponents. I also wanted a speed OF or another sp.



I made the rookie mistake of reaction drafting. Jersey Hitmen, at 14 slot took E Cabrera. So with some of my sp targets sitting there: SLowey, Liriano, Dempster, Floyd, I bit and took ALcides. I am luke warm on the guy...think his avg will be pretty good (see Venezuela this winter) but not sure what else he will bring.



Now I was completely off strategy. I had no speed OF, one sp and hadnt really added much power. ALso felt like I needed a leadoff type to keep my run total decent.



At 13 I took Coghlin. I dont like him, have never drafted him and dont get why I took him. Wanting to keep my power advantage, I took Papi at 14.1. I felt like he was best power bat. At this point I felt like I could not get out of the hole...I had no idea what I was doing and the quick picks at the turn was making me impulse pick.



By 15-16 turn I knew I needed starters and needed tehm badly. I took two more guys I have never beeen remotely interested in W Davis and E Santana. Wade Davis, I just decided to buy into the hype, even though I didnt believe it myself. Santan, I was looking for a HR out of a bunt single.



By this point, my power advantage was gone. My staff was bad, I had no 2nd relief pitcher and I was short on speed. The decent OFs were mostly going fast. Willingham, a target, LaPorta, Ross all went right before me. I went for another home runwith a bunt, Maybin and SNider at 17-18.



At 19 I knew I needed a closer. Lindstrom had not been named andLyon had been taken at 17. I felt I liked Lindstrom better then Lyon. I took Lindstrom and I still like this pick. At 19.1 I took Blake, another guy I have never even considered owning.



At 21-22 I took Chris Young, sp and K Wood, hoping he would end up getting saves somewhere.



In retrospect, I need to find a way to take a step back at the draft. I also think that a more concrete strategy would have helped, in rounds 8-20. I also think a partner would help.



I ended up short on speed, sp and yes, even short on power. This team will need miracles and what ifs to compete.

[Carl]

I agree with the partner idea. This was the first time i did the live events and after the first ten rounds i wasn't really prepared having someone else there would of helped.

[whipsaw]

I agree with you that power was at a premium this year (especially for the corners), and the market wasn't correcting for it. In my leagues (granted, 12 teamers) I wanted north of 200 homers on board after my 8th pick. I also agree that SP was extremely deep, tons of guys with upside in the middle rounds. Thanks for this writeup, I may have to hit a live event next year.

[team z]

Heaven knows there are many different ways managers approach the draft. When I enter a draft room my team is already selected. Every pick is already made. I just need to follow the plan. Using ADP I will usually have a good idea of the 3-4 players who will be at my first draft position. I prepare a draft plan for each possible #1 pick. After the #1 pick I prefer to look at the draft board and decide where the best place in the draft pool to be is. In other words who is the player I can take that will most help and fit my goals but more importantly if hes not there is there a good replacement at that position that's not to far of a reach. This way I know the player I draft will fit at the end. Actually this makes the draft itself pretty dull and I may not get every player I want but I will walk out with most of them and a team that met the goals.



By mocking your team over and over again you also learn where you don't want to be in the draft. Especially towards the end of the draft. You see what's sitting out there all the time and use that knowledge when your picking early on.



[ April 04, 2010, 03:57 PM: Message edited by: the untouchables ]