Post
by Raskol » Wed Nov 10, 2010 5:47 am
Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by Raskol:
Bill must see an injury or trade in Boston for both Ells and Kalish to get that much playing time. Maybe Nancy Drew will finally retire. Bill should know more than us and I have to believe he had a say in this projection. There are some in the Boston area who believe Ellsbury will get traded this off-season. We'll have to wait and see, but you are correct something has to open up in the outfield for Kalish to get these numbers.
I don't agree with H2H that Bill James isn't involved with the projections. I believe he does work with Steve's group at Baseball Info Solutions on some of this. He's not just a name on this book. [/QUOTE]Don't get me wrong, I think Kalish is a real talent and I hope he does get the opportunity to show what he can do. After Jacoby never really returned following his collision with Beltre (remember that Beltre put two outfielders on the DL last year!), I and many other Sox fans have begun to question his toughness. Understand that I don't have broken ribs and have never played professional baseball, but I have seen athletes compete at a high level while bleeding, with broken bones, with the flu, while grieving, you name it. Jacoby just didn't step up when his team needed him.
Anyway, here is an article I wrote about him in August after his call-up (apologies in advance for the tables not lining up well):
This week we’ll take a look at Ryan Kalish, who, thanks to a rash of injuries, has the opportunity to claim a spot in the Boston Outfield for the rest of the 2010 season and perhaps beyond. If you are in need of Outfield help for the stretch run, then you should consider adding him.
Boston entered this season with two options in Center, Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron, but neither has been able to stay on the field on a consistent basis. Now that both players are likely out for the remainder of the 2010 season, Kalish will see a substantial amount of playing time. According to Manager Terry Francona, “we want to see him play center. We've got some decisions to make coming up here about who plays, when they play, where. We were kind of looking for a chance to put this kid in center. If he can handle this like we think he can, [he's] got a good chance to make us a little bit better." Seldom do big-market teams hand over a starting job in explicit terms, especially to a player who is only 22 years-old, but Francona’s comments suggest that Kalish is being looked at as a long-term player, not just a fill-in for injured veterans.
A look at Kalish’s Minor League numbers tells us why Boston has been willing to give Kalish this opportunity:
Year/Age Lge AB HR RBI R SB AVG
2007/19 Low A 87 3 13 27 18 .368
2008/20 A 73 2 14 6 1 .233
2008/20 A 360 3 32 51 18 .281
2009/21 A 115 5 21 21 7 .304
2009/21 AA 391 13 56 63 14 .271
2010/22 AA 150 8 29 35 12 .293
2010/22 AAA 143 5 18 22 12 .294
While there isn’t one statistic that jumps out in the above table, there are several that, when taken together, tell the story of a player with emerging power, good speed and the potential for an excellent AVG. His 2009 season split between A and AA ball saw him tally 18 HR and 21 SB and in 2010 he collected 13 HR and 24 SB (in fewer AB) prior to his promotion.
In Fantasy Baseball, owners love players who have the ability to go 20/20 (HR/SB). In real-life baseball, these counting stats, while still valuable, aren’t as prized as some other statistics, particularly for those teams that favor statistical analysis like the Red Sox. This is where Kalish shines brightest:
Year/Age BB% OBP SLG SB%
2007/19 15.4 .471 .540 86
2008/20 12.6 .376 .356 82
2008/20 9.8 .305 .397 100
2009/21 18.2 .434 .513 70
2009/21 9.6 .341 .440 82
2010/22 15.3 .404 .527 92
2010/22 8.8 .356 .476 86
It appears that Kalish struggles after his promotions from one level to another. At the end of 2008, he was promoted to High-A ball and saw his numbers decline; in 2009 he began the season there and was very effective. Similarly, he was promoted to AA ball in 2009 and encountered difficulty but was able to make the necessary adjustments as 2010 began. His performance in AAA in 2010 continues this pattern of initially struggling as the quality of the opposing pitching improved. Overall, Kalish has demonstrated a remarkable ability to take Walks, get on base and use his speed very effectively---all tools prized by the Red Sox organization.
Where does this leave Kalish for 2010 and beyond? For the rest of this season, he should see regular playing time since Boston has few other options. His performance thus far (.239 AVG, 2 HR, 1 SB in 67 AB) is far from stellar, but remember that his Minor League career suggests that he goes through an acclimation period after each promotion, so better numbers are on the way. For 2011, Ellsbury, JD Drew and Cameron are all under contract but none of them can be counted on to play a full season due to age (Cameron), injury history (Drew) or potential frailty (Ellsbury). Ellsbury could be moved to Left Field, leaving a more durable Kalish to patrol Center, with Drew in Right Field and Cameron likely to play whenever either is injured or needs a day off. While Kalish does not have the blazing speed of Ellsbury, he is more selective at the plate, and could well see himself batting at the top of the lineup in 2011, making him well worth the investment now if you are in a Keeper or Dynasty league.
If you're going to be crazy, you have to get paid for it or else you're going to be locked up.--Hunter S. Thompson
