#1 Overall Pick - ALBERT vs. HANLEY

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Tue Dec 07, 2010 7:47 am

Todd,

You bring up an interesting point re first rounders and injury risk. There are some on this board who favor nailing down a top positionally scarce type player such as Tulo or Mauer from last year. COnversely, I suppose that the alternative school is to nail down definitve top drawer numbers irrespective of where they play on the field.

Do your plodding 1b types seem to get injured less and thus create a better chance of attaining the numbers that you envision for them?

FOr example, a Miguel Cabrera plays 1b or DH....which require less on field action, and dont steal bases, lessening risks for ankle injuries during slides or hammy pulls.

Top notch SS and C's and to a lesser extent, all positional players aside from DHs and 1b seem to have higher inicences of injury. DO you see a correlation between position and injury and thus between position and 1st round reliability?

Do your Pujolses, Tex, Howard, Fielder, Cabrera types get injured less?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Tue Dec 07, 2010 8:04 am

I've never personally run a study of that nature and take each player on a case by case basis.

Keep in mind the guy we are pimping as the most reliable thing since "Old Faithful" dropped in drafts in recent years due to concerns with plantar fasciitis and his elbow possibly requiring Tommy John surgery.

Winston's Empire · Post by **Winston's Empire** » Tue Dec 07, 2010 8:28 am

Looking back at my 2009 Main Event Draft Board in Chicago, the first round kinda says something about the injury bug and position played.

The first Round from 1 - 15 was

Reyes, Pujols, Wright, Hanley, M Cabrera, Braun, Sizemore, Rollins, Hamilton, Howard, Kinsler, Beltran, Utley, Holliday and Texiera.

The 4 1st Baseman (Pujols, M Cabrea, Howard and Texiera) have all been healthy and producing along with Hanley (most of the time), Wright (hit in head by pitch), Braun, and Holliday.

Reyes, Sizemore, Rollins, Hamilon, Kinsler, beltran, and Utley have been more knicked up...

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Tue Dec 07, 2010 1:51 pm

All,

I completely agree with the Cargo risk on injury, but there seems to be forgetfulness on pujols injury risk as well as hanley!

Spy

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Tue Dec 07, 2010 4:07 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by swampass:

quote:Originally posted by Ando:

And I was #3 in one of them and took Cargo over Hanley.....

Bottom line, you can't go wrong here. Each of Cargo, Tulo, and Hanley can be justified at #2 without much argument.

As Rick said, pick your flavor. You will be happy! no way i go cargo over hanley. cargo has produced as an all star for 1 season. im not taking any risk of a sophmore slump. i dont like that k/bb ratio and he has had injuries in the past. if im going to miss on someone at 2.. they are going to be more proven than cargo. miggy or hanley over cargo fo shizzle. [/QUOTE]Cargo is not a sophomore and was fairly effective in a half season worth of at bats in 2009. [/QUOTE]Cargo had a great final 2 or 3 months in 2009... It was a big part of why so many pegged him as a must have player heading into 2010. He was a 5th/6th round pick that had the potential to deliver 1st round numbers... just like Tulo did in 2009 and Hamilton in 2008.

Ando · Post by **Ando** » Tue Dec 07, 2010 5:07 pm

Also do not discount the fact that Hanley's SB totals have decreased the past 4 years in a row. Plus, there is a better than 50% chance he does not reach 100 RBI imo (sorry, but the #1/#2/#3 overall BETTER get to 100 RBI) AND couple that with the fact that he is now surrounded by his least supportive cast since he became a 'superstar'.

The more you put this stuff together, who in their right mind would take Hanley at #1? Shoot, I'm starting to think Miggy and Votto are more valuable just by typing all of this.....

But...that's what makes this game great!

And finally, I owned Hanley in the Main last year. He is a dog in terms of intangibles.

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Tue Dec 07, 2010 5:17 pm

Originally posted by Ando:

Also do not discount the fact that Hanley's SB totals have decreased the past 4 years in a row. Plus, there is a better than 50% chance he does not reach 100 RBI imo (sorry, but the #1/#2/#3 overall BETTER get to 100 RBI) AND couple that with the fact that he is now surrounded by his least supportive cast since he became a 'superstar'.

The more you put this stuff together, who in their right mind would take Hanley at #1? Shoot, I'm starting to think Miggy and Votto are more valuable just by typing all of this.....

But...that's what makes this game great!

And finally, I owned Hanley in the Main last year. He is a dog in terms of intangibles. I think a better debate is Hanley vs Tulo as #1 SS.... In our last slow draft, Tulo was indeed picked before Hanley.

Winston's Empire · Post by **Winston's Empire** » Wed Dec 08, 2010 1:15 am

This has really been eye opening. Ando, I have Hanley in a keeper league and he is indeed a dog when looking at the intangibles. He misses time, takes off plays, gets benched, but always has pretty good numbers. I guess there is the hope in me that he will simply put it all together in one year and simply grow up!

Its great to see guys like Tulo and Votto grind it out and will their team to do better.

Looking forward to drafting now! Can't wait to see who comes to me on the turn for #30 & #31!

Pujols will be my #1

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:36 am

Originally posted by swampass:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by swampass:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by swampass:

quote:Originally posted by Ando:

And I was #3 in one of them and took Cargo over Hanley.....

Bottom line, you can't go wrong here. Each of Cargo, Tulo, and Hanley can be justified at #2 without much argument.

As Rick said, pick your flavor. You will be happy! no way i go cargo over hanley. cargo has produced as an all star for 1 season. im not taking any risk of a sophmore slump. i dont like that k/bb ratio and he has had injuries in the past. if im going to miss on someone at 2.. they are going to be more proven than cargo. miggy or hanley over cargo fo shizzle. [/QUOTE]Cargo is not a sophomore and was fairly effective in a half season worth of at bats in 2009. [/QUOTE]as far as full seasons go.. he has yet to put together a 2nd full season.. sorry for the semantics.

yes.. he had a great 278 ab's with the Rox in '09. do you forget the brutal 302 ab's he had with the A's in '08? 81 k and 13 walks..

no doubt this dude has crazy skills, but if im going to burn a 2nd 3rd, or perhaps even 4th over all pick. I'm looking for someone thats done it for more than 1 full season.

lock and load pujols and with the v-mart add i have to think Miggy gets into the top 5 easy. [/QUOTE]I'd say you should go for Lance Berkman or even Jason Giambi in the first round. They've had lots of good seasons. Cargo's splits make me nervous, but it's not really a mystery why he did poorly before he got to Coors. [/QUOTE]ho ho ho wow.. what an informative response.... douche.

"it's not really a mystery why he did poorly before he got to Coors."so his ability is based strictly by his home park? wow..... great thinking einstein. clearly your advice on giambi and berkmann was probably based on your #1 and #2 picks last year? [/QUOTE]You insult my intellect even while having a hard time understanding my point. I wouldn't pick Giambi or Berkman even though they've had a lot of good years. You get advantages in this game by effectively evaluating players that may seem inconsistent but actually have a mean projection that is better than others who are taken sooner.