If You sit on Boloney, is it called Butloney?

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Jan 14, 2011 5:08 am

I've debated with myself over whether to start this thread. One thing I try to do is not come off as an 'expert'. If there is a room full of experts, it doesn't mean that the person who has the floor is any more of an expert than those listening. That's how I feel about these Boards.

With that said, there is one player going in the first six rounds on a consistent basis that mystifies me. Maybe somebody who has chosen him can enlighten me on how he was the best choice at the time.

Before we get to that, a failure amongst fantasy players is following a natural progression. For example, Paul Konerko is getting old (like he is any different than the rest of us). I know he is getting old, because it is the first thing mentioned by most 'experts'. With that in mind, most drafters put him farther down on their 2010 lists before last years draft. Unfortunately, players don't follow age progressions. Konerko went on to have one of the best years of his career and those who listened about players getting older were burned.

The same thing happens for younger players. It is said that they'll get stronger as they age, hence more power, and we all know that is not the case. In 2006, Shawn Chids was defending Carl Crawford as a player who would 'grow' into a 20-25 home run player. Shawn's a smart man, but it doesn't work that way for a lot of players. Crawford's sometimes slashing type swing, being the major culprit in his case.

Now, we get back to my problem of a player being overdrafted. First, let's set the hitting lines for two hitters;

.267/10/88/67/10

.318/15/78/77/0

At first glance, the biggest differences are the 51 point batting average difference and the 10 steals. Both players have a lot of experience and both are heading into their golden years. The first set of stats will be age 27 next year, the second, 26. They are both, first basemen.

From looking at those set of stats, what round do you think these players should be taken in? Let me also toss in, that the .267 hitter has a career .288 average, the .318 hitter has a career .299 average. And, let me further add, that these guys are being selected with a 10 round difference in early drafts. Think about it, I'll reveal the players in the next paragraph.

Done?

Ok, the first line belongs to James Loney, the second, Billy Butler.

Why the 10 round difference?

Could it be that the average drop by Loney has branded him as just an rbi guy? He does have a better surrounding cast than Butler and will probably get more rbi than Butler again.

But, let's not focus on Loney, let's talk Butler. First, he is a gap to gap hitter with no speed on a bad team. To me, that signals less rbi and being stranded a lot because of that lack of speed and nobody behind him. Most likely, he'll be walked with first base open and runners on(whenever that happens). He drew eight intentional walks last year.

He is also becoming a more selective hitter. A great thing for real baseball, not so much for fantasy. He walked more and struck out significantly less last year. On a team such as the Royals, I want the best hitter to be hacking. But, it won't happen. Butler is not built that way.

Last year, Shandler made the mistake of saying 'up 30', describing a 30 homer ceiling for Butler.

That one made me giggle.

Hopefully, he has toned down his praise of Butler's power. I don't know, this year I've decided not to read him.

Butler is what he is, a gap-to-gapper who'll give great average.

But, most likely, 10 rounds later, Loney will approach that average and raise with a few steals.

Butler in most cases, is selected by a team without a rostered first baseman. This may signal that in looking at the first basemen that were left on the board, desperation played a key part in giving Butler high status. Konerko's year has put him on the tail end of first tier status and Butler is the beginning of a second tier for many. Most players beginning a tier, are overpicked.

So, what do you fellas think?

Am I off base here?

Butler pickers (oooooh!), tell me why you chose Butler with so much else on the draft board to pick from.

Let me have it...

Oh, and sorry for the Cheesey subject line...

[ January 14, 2011, 12:07 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Jan 15, 2011 7:00 am

In a more sensible draft, Butler was taken at 9.2

team z · Post by **team z** » Sat Jan 15, 2011 7:33 am

I don't know if it actually happened but isn't K.C. supposed to be moving the fences in this year? Obviously this would help get a few more HR's for Butler.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sat Jan 15, 2011 8:22 am

Butler has been at the top of my "why is this guy getting drafted so high" list for a couple of years ... thus the benefit of not reading Schandler. But not to discourage anyone, this could be his year !

Ando · Post by **Ando** » Sat Jan 15, 2011 10:04 am

Dan,

In our 2nd slow draft, BButler went 5.10 and I got JLoney at 16.12. Me likey.

But as KJ noted, Butler does have "breakout ability". As a Cub fan, I said the same thing about Gracey from '88 til '95.

At some point, you are who you are. If Butler could just hit 22-25 bombs, his outlook would change considerably. Grace never did. Butler better this year or his epitah is written.