Live Chat Today With Greg A. At 3 P.M. EST

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 8:25 am

Originally posted by Cooperstown:

Can someone with very little time over the course of the season win the NFBC Classic? It seems to me that with this level of competition, not having the time to review free agents or make lineup decisions, for many weeks during the season makes it impossible to win. What do you think Greg? Most definitely you can win any of these titles without spending all day on it, Jeff. The key is having a solid draft so that you're not always plugging new holes and of course I think you need to watch a lot of games and stay up on player performances. After that you can analyze free agents all you want but you still have to make the right bid and get the guys who become the next Jose Bautista.

I thought last year our Free Agent Quick feature on the site was perfect for saving time during the season. We'll see if we can continue to create features like that to save you time when it comes to searching and researching free agents. But there's no question in my mind that with the right draft, the right amount of in-season management and a little luck you can win the Classic without being overly obsessed with it. Everything just has to fall your way for that to happen.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 8:27 am

Originally posted by Fast Money:

Great to see the Baseball juices flowing. Are there any rules changes for the NFBC for the 2011 season?

Packers appear to have the upper hand this weekend. Should be a classic black and blue division war. Good Luck!! Here you go Joe from a previous thread:

I have taken a lot of feedback from owners and looked over our NFBC rules closely and come to the conclusion that we can better our contest with a few slight changes. Unless I'm missing another area of concern, these are the changes I'm putting in place now:

1. We will change the wording of available free agents to be picked up in the NFBC to state that undrafted minor-leaguers must have played at least 1 MLB game to be added to the free agent pool. Something like this:

12. Free Agents

Any player who is not on a team roster within your league and is on a major league roster or once was on an NFBC team in your league is considered a free agent for that league. Even players on the MLB disabled list are eligible to be picked up during the FAAB bidding process. The player pool is deemed closed of new free agents each Sunday at 7 AM ET before the FAAB bidding deadline and a player must have played at least 1 MLB game to be added to the pool at that time. Participants should note that MLB unsigned veteran free agents at the time of Draft Day are eligible to be picked up or bid on in the NFBC Classic.

2. We will improve the set lineup time on Friday's similar to what we have on Monday's. That means only early game rosters will be locked and all other rosters will be open until 6:55 pm ET, the likely scheduled start of Friday night games. Here's an example:

11. Lineup Submission

The weekly deadline for setting your NFBC starting lineup is 6:55 PM ET on Monday. Players who are on teams participating in games with a scheduled start time prior to the Monday deadline at 6:55 PM ET, will be locked 5 minutes before the scheduled start time for their game. No changes involving players on these teams with early games will be allowed after this deadline for their game regardless of whether or not their game actually starts as scheduled.

Team owners also are allowed to remove a pitcher (or pitchers) who is officially on the DL from their starting lineup and replace him with a pitcher from their reserve roster on Fridays. Those decisions will have to be made by 5 minutes before the scheduled start time of the first game of the day if those pitchers are involved in an early game or by 6:55 pm ET for all teams involved in night games. Pitchers must officially be on Major League Baseball's DL list according to Fanball and the NFBC by 12:01 AM ET on Friday for this move (or moves) to take effect for the weekend games.

Once again in 2011, NFBC team owners are allowed to switch out any hitter (or hitters) from their starting lineup and replace him with a hitter from their reserve roster on Fridays. The deadline for doing that is 5 minutes before the start of an early Friday game or at 6:55 pm ET for all players involved in night games. Players who are on teams participating in games with a scheduled start time prior to the 6:55 PM ET deadline will be locked 5 minutes before the scheduled start time for their game. No changes involving players on those teams with early games will be allowed after this deadline for their game regardless of whether or not their game actually starts as scheduled.

3. Increase the IP minimum to 900 for all events. I understand the change this will make in the NFBC, but the evidence is very strong that most owners have no trouble attaining 900 IP.

4. I do not have an answer to the Friday DL loophole some folks have asked me to close up involving pitchers. I need to work on the wording there.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 8:29 am

Originally posted by Fast Money:

Packers appear to have the upper hand this weekend. Should be a classic black and blue division war. Good Luck!! Agreed Joe. It should be a great, great game and it's been a fun week already with all of the great stories about past Packers-Bears matchups and interviews with past players, etc. I can't read enough of it and the NFL Network seems to be 24/7 on my TV. This is carrying me through this uncertain times and keeping me sane. No matter what happens, it's been a fun, fun season.

I posted this yesterday that the Packers owe a debt of gratitude to your Detroit Lions and wouldn't even be in the playoffs without them. Here's what I posted on the NFFC boards:

It's crazy to note that the Green Bay Packers owe a big debt of gratitude to the Detroit Lions for even being in the playoffs this year. The Lions battered Aaron Rodgers to submission in Week 14 and beat the Pack 7-3 to ruin their NFC North Division title hopes. The injury to Rodgers kept him out of the next week's game at New England, which resulted in another loss.

But the Packers wouldn't even be in the playoffs if the Lions would have lost in Week 15 at Tampa Bay. The Lions upset the Bucs in overtime at Tampa and even with the Packers' loss at New England that night they still controlled their playoff destiny. That loss by the Bucs put them behind the Packers in a wild card tie-breaker and when the Packers won out against the Giants and Bears they finished in a three-way tie for the final wild card spot with the Giants and Bucs. Had the Bucs beaten the Lions in Week 15, the red-hot Packers would be watching from the sidelines this post-season, kicking themselves over that loss in Detroit. Instead, they now have the Lions to thank for being in the post-season.

Two NFC North teams in the NFC Championship Game and one of them has a fellow NFC North team to thank for that opportunity. Pretty cool.

Rainiers · Post by **Rainiers** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 8:37 am

Thanks for your insights, Greg. I must admit, I'm envious of guys like you and Dough that can write so much quality stuff SO DANG FAST...

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 8:41 am

Originally posted by Rainiers:

Thanks for your insights, Greg. I must admit, I'm envious of guys like you and Dough that can write so much quality stuff SO DANG FAST... I thought I was one of the nerds when I took typing class as a sophomore in high school back in 1975, but THANK GOD I did!!

I have a feeling my mind will fail me before my fingers ever do!!

Money · Post by **Money** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 8:42 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by Fast Money:

Packers appear to have the upper hand this weekend. Should be a classic black and blue division war. Good Luck!! Agreed Joe. It should be a great, great game and it's been a fun week already with all of the great stories about past Packers-Bears matchups and interviews with past players, etc. I can't read enough of it and the NFL Network seems to be 24/7 on my TV. This is carrying me through this uncertain times and keeping me sane. No matter what happens, it's been a fun, fun season.

I posted this yesterday that the Packers owe a debt of gratitude to your Detroit Lions and wouldn't even be in the playoffs without them. Here's what I posted on the NFFC boards:

It's crazy to note that the Green Bay Packers owe a big debt of gratitude to the Detroit Lions for even being in the playoffs this year. The Lions battered Aaron Rodgers to submission in Week 14 and beat the Pack 7-3 to ruin their NFC North Division title hopes. The injury to Rodgers kept him out of the next week's game at New England, which resulted in another loss.

But the Packers wouldn't even be in the playoffs if the Lions would have lost in Week 15 at Tampa Bay. The Lions upset the Bucs in overtime at Tampa and even with the Packers' loss at New England that night they still controlled their playoff destiny. That loss by the Bucs put them behind the Packers in a wild card tie-breaker and when the Packers won out against the Giants and Bears they finished in a three-way tie for the final wild card spot with the Giants and Bucs. Had the Bucs beaten the Lions in Week 15, the red-hot Packers would be watching from the sidelines this post-season, kicking themselves over that loss in Detroit. Instead, they now have the Lions to thank for being in the post-season.

Two NFC North teams in the NFC Championship Game and one of them has a fellow NFC North team to thank for that opportunity. Pretty cool. [/QUOTE]Wow, that's the first I've heard of that!! Some redeeming value from the Lions, that's a nice change.

Now how about them Tigers? I loved their moves this winter but would've liked one more power bat. Seems like they'll lean on Magglio to hit either in front of or behind Miguel. He will most likely break down leaving it to VMart to help him out. The numbers Cabrera put up last year were amazing given he had nobody hitting around him most of the year.

Pitching looks solid if Brad Penny can give them 180 innings or so and Porcello has the bounce back year some are talking about. I Loved the Benoit pickup. I see the tigers with 90 wins plus if they stay healthy. That's a big if. Guellen (whom I'd let go) is already slated to miss the beginning of the year.

Do I have reason for optimism?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 8:45 am

Is that really it from this group?? 70+ people on the boards and less than a dozen questions? I'm disappointed.

C'mon, stump the pro before I head to Las Vegas on Sunday.

Oh, I'll be one of the hosts for Monday's Live Fantasy Baseball Draft on Sirius. Kyle and Ray will be doing the analysis and I'll be the main facilitator, announcing the picks and asking the participants the questions after each pick. I think it starts at 5 pm PT and will be live throughout the night. I hope it will be interesting.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 8:50 am

Joe, there's certainly reason to be optimistic about the Tigers. That division is wide open and is a three-team race between Detroit, Minnesota and Chicago. 92 wins can win that division. I agree that there are injury concerns with some of these older players, but the VMart pickup was sweet and there is upside with this pitching staff. I'm just not sure if all of the stars can align for the Tigers to beat the Twins this year.

Your Lions are definitely on the rise and that defensive front is for real. It's just that they are in a very, very tough division and they'll need a better bill of health with Stafford and Best to move up even one spot in the standings. Good luck there and maybe we'll hook up next year at Lambeau Field.

Winston's Empire · Post by **Winston's Empire** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 8:53 am

AL EAST - From 1st to Worst, rank where you think the teams will finish in this changing division!

Tarpon30 · Post by **Tarpon30** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 9:00 am

In your opinion who stands to have a better year in 2011 from the lefties once deemed top prospects! Eric Bedard or Scott Kazmir?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 9:02 am

Originally posted by WINSTON'S EMPIRE:

AL EAST - From 1st to Worst, rank where you think the teams will finish in this changing division! I'm terrible at team predictions, but it's hard not to go with the big spenders:

Boston

Yankees

Tampa

Toronto

Baltimore

The Rays need a big year from Desmond Jennings or whomever fills Crawford's spot and they need to find a reliable closer. But beating the Red Sox and Yankees will be tough. Baltimore should be much improved and could find a way to move up a spot if all falls into place.

swampass · Post by **swampass** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 9:05 am

greg... talk to me about 3rd base. there are 3 to 5 big dogs... and the rest. im seeing the likes of mark reynolds and pablo sandoval behind some real questionable people in 3rd base rankings.

who's for real and who isnt? who is going to dip and who could break out? at some point i think reynolds is a steal in that ball park if he stays healthy. my feeling is that injuries really held him back last year.. that and the 200+ k's.

thanks!

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 9:06 am

Originally posted by Tarpon30:

In your opinion who stands to have a better year in 2011 from the lefties once deemed top prospects! Eric Bedard or Scott Kazmir? I was on the Kazmir bounceback wagon after 2008 and was terribly wrong and there's nothing left in the tank. Kazmir finished with 93 strikeouts in 150 innings last year after striking out 166 in 152 IP in 2008 and of course a league-best 239 Ks in 2007. I'm done with him.

We don't know what to expect from Bedard this year, but other pitchers have bounced back after sitting out a year. Given the choice, I'll gamble on Bedard.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 9:12 am

Originally posted by swampass:

greg... talk to me about 3rd base. there are 3 to 5 big dogs... and the rest. im seeing the likes of mark reynolds and pablo sandoval behind some real questionable people in 3rd base rankings.

who's for real and who isnt? who is going to dip and who could break out? at some point i think reynolds is a steal in that ball park if he stays healthy. my feeling is that injuries really held him back last year.. that and the 200+ k's.

thanks! I agree with you. I was in a draft in December where I held off on third base and each time I kept looking at that list I was so underwhelmed I kept moving on. I think I ended up with Pablo Sandoval late and I have no problem with that.

Longoria, Wright, A-Rod and Zimmerman are solid for me. Bautista has to be considered, although there's no way I'll take him where he's going now. I like Pedro Alvarez and believe in his upside.

That second tier of Michael Young, Aramis Ramirez, Alvarez and Adrian Beltre is solid. And there are some good upside picks here, although they could stink on your parade, too. Guys like Ian Stewart, Sandoval, Chris Johnson, Reynolds and Chase Headley.

It's not a bad position, but I sure wouldn't mind locking up one of those top four third basemen first if possible.

Winston's Empire · Post by **Winston's Empire** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 9:19 am

DELMON YOUNG - A guy who finally matured a bit and broke out last year. If you had to guess, where do you think they will bat him in the lineup (with a healthy Morneau) and what do you think his stat line will look like in 2011?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 9:33 am

Originally posted by WINSTON'S EMPIRE:

DELMON YOUNG - A guy who finally matured a bit and broke out last year. If you had to guess, where do you think they will bat him in the lineup (with a healthy Morneau) and what do you think his stat line will look like in 2011? I really didn't see this one coming last year. Shawn was my partner in LABR and when he made a late bid for Young I just looked at him with disbelief. I just wasn't sure he warranted a bid in the $14 range. Well, Shawn knows best and he was worth much more than $20 last year.

It's interesting to note that Young put up incredible numbers despite hitting at a home park that really hurt his power. That park is tough to hit homers at and Young's stats are no different. Here's his splits from 2010:

Away: .291-15-58

Home: .306-6-54

He was solid against RHPs (.292-11-82) and even better against lefties (.312-10-30).

I'm not sure where the Twins will hit him, but I'd say fifth or sixth makes the most sense. He had 233 ABs in the seventh spot last year and 107 in the sixth spot, where he hit .364-3-23. He had 71 ABs in the fourth and fifth spot last year.

I'd say sixth with a shot at fifth against LHPs.

76erfan · Post by **76erfan** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 9:42 am

Who do you see closing in Chicago?

Sale or Thornton

Is it a good idea to get both just in case?

The Mighty Men · Post by **The Mighty Men** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 9:46 am

Hey, I've got one for you Greg and Tom:

How does a Packer fan find a sheep in the vast rolling hills of Wisconsin?

Very satisfying.

DiamondKing · Post by **DiamondKing** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 9:50 am

Greg,one idea I liked from last year was video of pulling the draft slots for the high money leagues.Any chance of doing the same for all leagues this year?

B&B · Post by **B&B** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 9:51 am

Greg - who are your predictions for Cy Young and ROY in each league?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 9:52 am

Originally posted by 76erfan:

Who do you see closing in Chicago?

Sale or Thornton

Is it a good idea to get both just in case? Good question and I was looking at their ADPs this morning on the Slow Drafts. Thornton is definitely going ahead of Sale in the Slow Drafts, but not by much. I think Thornton could start out as the closer, but there's a reason this 34-year-old has never been a full-time closer. Sale has the best potential if they leave him in the bullpen.

Look for Sale to start out the season behind Thornton, but his potential is great. During his brief time in Chicago last yar, he struck out 32 batters in 23.1 IP and held batters to a .185 average. He was 4-for-4 in save opportunities and seems to be a great upside pick right now. He's also just 21 and not overwhelmed by the big stage.

Thornton also put up good numbers and is ready to take over this job for Jenks. I'm not sure I can remember the last team with two lefty closers, but these two are unique.

I think it will be tough to get both because both are going in the same area later in the draft. One of these guys is going to pay off this season; determining which one it will be is your job.

Hells Satans · Post by **Hells Satans** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 9:54 am

Rumor has it that Alex Rios will hit 5th behind Dunn and Konerko. If so how much does impact his value? More RBIs v. severely reduced SBO

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 9:54 am

Originally posted by DiamondKing:

Greg,one idea I liked from last year was video of pulling the draft slots for the high money leagues.Any chance of doing the same for all leagues this year? Very possible that we'll be able to do something online for most of the leagues. Tom and I were looking at this option last week and had a pretty good solution. Stay tuned.

751542 · Post by **751542** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 9:55 am

add me to the super league on sat please...thanks

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 10:00 am

Originally posted by B&B:

Greg - who are your predictions for Cy Young and ROY in each league? I'm never right on these, but since you asked:

NL Cy Young: Impossible to pick against Halladay. But if I was wild I'd pick Greinke. Homer pick

AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez (his stuff is just too good)

AL ROY: Desmond Jennings. Teammate Jeremy Helickson will finish second

NL ROY: Craig Kimbrel