Live Chat With Greg and Tom Wednesday At 3 PM ET

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 5:33 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

rank these SP...

1. j. hellickson

2. j. vazquez

3. p. hughes

4. r. romero I've spent less time analyzing players this season than at any time since 1989, but I'll do my best:

1. Hughes (potential for wins and solid ERA make up for fewer Ks)

2. Vazquez (return to NL and happy family life will help)

3. Hellickson (great potential here; solid upside)

4. Romero -- I like him a lot, but pitching in that damn division makes it tough.

Trust In Bill · Post by **Trust In Bill** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 5:39 am

In these 50 round DC slow drafts, what generally should I be targeting in the last 10 rounds of the draft?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 5:39 am

Originally posted by MadCow Sez:

First 3 closers to lose the jobs....first 3 FAAB closer candidates? Geez, if I knew this I'd be playing in this contest and kicking your butt!!!

I'll try anyway:

Matt Thornton: Chris Sale if he's not already drafted (which he will be in the NFBC)

Francisco Cordero: There's no holding back Aroldis Chapman as the new closer

Brandon Lyon: C'mon, really?

I would only be guessing on FAAB pickups. You guys are smart enough to cover the new closers with your first 450 picks, right? Who needs FAAB for that, right?

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 5:39 am

Originally posted by Ryan C:

Who has the better year from these pairings:

Carlos Santana or Buster Posey?

Billy Butler or Gaby Sanchez?

Neil Walker or Gordon Beckham?

Mark Reynolds or Pedro Alvarez?

Derek Jeter or Elvis Andrus?

I'll take the first five and let Greg take the next five.

I like Posey a lot so he'd be my pick there. Plus from a fantasy perspective you get a little extra position versatility which is nice.

I'll go with Butler even though I think 2010 was more of what we can expect as opposed to 2009. For me, the swing comes with his average. He's a solid .300 hitter with some power. I'll take that over the potential for a little more power with a much worse average with Sanchez.

Beckham only because of the youth factor. I worry about the sharp regression he showed last season but he's only 25 and skilled so I believe he has an opportunity to get back on track and regain his 2009 prowess.

Alvarez again because of the youth factor. I can't believe Reynolds will hit as badly as he did last season but I do think his SB decline is something to watch and you know that even if his stroke returns his average won't be very good. I like what Alvarez showed last season and his potential for the future.

Jeter vs. Andrus is tougher and it really comes down to how you want to comprise your team. If you're looking for a big-time SB producer than Andrus is the guy. If you want more across-the-board production than it's Jeter. So for me it would really come down to how my draft was going and what I thought I could get with SBs.

That said, the fact Jeter is dating Minka Kelly is a rather huge advantage in his favor.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 5:43 am

Originally posted by Trust In Bill:

In these 50 round DC slow drafts, what generally should I be targeting in the last 10 rounds of the draft? I would think depth, depth and more depth. One of the reasons that folks wanted five more rounds added was because the attrition on catchers and middle infield spots was so high. They ran out of available bodies for those positions. That means that certain positions need to be cushioned as much as possible even beyond the 40-man roster.

Some folks will think that the last 10 rounds are for minor-league breakout stars, but it's possible that if you are drafting Double-A or even Class A guys they won't even make it to the majors in 2011. I think that's a rough gamble and loading up on depth of players who should at least be in the majors is the best way to go.

But what do I know? Right now I'm having trouble naming the first 450 players to draft.

Cooperstown · Post by **Cooperstown** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 7:36 am

Is the drop in talent at SS enough to justify grabbing Tulo with a top 3 pick?

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 7:41 am

Originally posted by Cooperstown:

Is the drop in talent at SS enough to justify grabbing Tulo with a top 3 pick? I'm not a fan of bypassing talent because of position scarcity - especially in the formative rounds of the draft. Tulo's obviously a terrific player but I wouldn't view him as a Top 3 talent. Therefore, I'm not taking him simply because I might believe the talent at SS is going to drop off soon. I'm going to take the best player on my board and worry about what happens at each position after that. The only time I'll favor position over talent is if I believe my offense is loaded so I can afford a potential drop-off in production to secure a quality player at a certain position.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 8:00 am

Originally posted by Ryan C:

Who has the better year from these pairings:

BJ Upton or Drew Stubbs?

Grady Sizemore or Colby Rasmus?

Brandon Morrow or Brett Anderson?

Jordan Zimmerman or Brian Matusz?

Chris Perez or John Axford? Upton or Stubbs: You know, Stubbs really surprised me last year and he's a solid looking young player. He very well could have better stats than Upton at season's end and the fact that Upton has hit about .239 over his last 1,100 at-bats scares the hell out of me. Still, I'm giving him one last chance and taking Upton over Stubbs to have more fantasy value in 2011.

Sizemore or Rasmus: Give me Rasmus. I'm done chasing injured players. Give me the 24-year-old with a major chip on his shoulder.

Brandon Morrow or Bret Anderson: Easy, Anderson

Jordan Zimmerman or Brian Matusz: Zimmerman pitched 25 miles away at the University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point. Homer pick goes with him, but Matusz looked very solid down the stretch. Toss up.

Chris Perez or John Axford: Brewers are going to follow the Packers' lead and shock the world by winning the World Series title!!!

Axford gets many more saves and is the easy choice here.

Thanks.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 8:01 am

Okay, Tom and I will be around for the next two hours if you folks have questions for us about anything related to the upcoming baseball season or even the NFBC. We're ready when you are!!! Bring it on.

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 8:05 am

who's your partner at LABR Drafts this year in AZ?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 8:08 am

Originally posted by Walla Walla:

who's your partner at LABR Drafts this year in AZ? Without a doubt my man Shawn Childs is going to join me if he can find a cheap flight out. We'll be in both the AL and NL this year and we're ready to compete again. Actually, Shawn is ready to carry an even bigger part of the load as I'm dead weight right now!!

But it should be fun. We finished second in the NL and I think 11th in the AL.

Come on out and join us in Phoenix everyone if you'd like. We'll be going to ballgames March 4th, 5th and 6th, with night auctions on the 5th and 6th. See ya there.

[ February 09, 2011, 02:09 PM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 8:13 am

Originally posted by Cooperstown:

Is the drop in talent at SS enough to justify grabbing Tulo with a top 3 pick? I'm going to talk about scarcity at second base and shortstop today at 5:20 pm on Sirius Radio, so this is a good question. I'd never use my third pick on position scarcity, but if you really believe that Tulo is one of the top five players in the draft then getting a Top 5 talent who plays at a weak offensive position makes him worthy of a Top 3 pick. Tulo hit .322-14-40 in September last year, showing what kind of talent he is.

And you are right, Tulo and Hanley are special, special talents at this position. The talent level really drops off after the Top 5 or 6, so I'd have no problem grabbing him earlier to secure the best at that position. But you have to believe in his talent more than just the position scarcity equation.

High Octane Baseball · Post by **High Octane Baseball** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 8:21 am

With pitching appearing to be so strong this year can you justify drafting ANY pitcher in the first round?

How soon would you take someone like The King?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 8:23 am

Originally posted by High Octane Baseball:

With pitching appearing to be so strong this year can you justify drafting ANY pitcher in the first round?

How soon would you take someone like The King? I think a lot of owners won NFBC titles last year by taking a pitcher in the first round. And those folks who targeted Roy Halladay in the first round over Tim Lincecum were smart and are now richer. So yes, you can definitely win by taking a pitcher at the end of Round 1. Just make sure it's the right pitcher.

I think you're going to see Felix going at the 2-3 turn in most drafts. I don't see too many teams taking him in the middle of round 2 with so much good offensive talent still there and Lincecum also still there, but the King won't come back to those same owners. He could be on a lot of teams with Pujols or Hanley or Tulo this year.

[ February 09, 2011, 02:25 PM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]

High Octane Baseball · Post by **High Octane Baseball** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 8:35 am

Not sure if we are allowed to ask back to back questions...but I have a bunch!

I really think Dustin Pedroia is going to be getting a lot of fastballs this year with Crawford and Ellsbury on base possibly. Where do you rank this scrappy little guy at in terms of 2b rankings overall ADP?

husky88fan · Post by **husky88fan** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 8:37 am

Utley or Cano?

Rollins or Reyes?

Kemp or J.Upton?

Choo or Pence?

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 8:41 am

Originally posted by High Octane Baseball:

Not sure if we are allowed to ask back to back questions...but I have a bunch!

I really think Dustin Pedroia is going to be getting a lot of fastballs this year with Crawford and Ellsbury on base possibly. Where do you rank this scrappy little guy at in terms of 2b rankings overall ADP? I agree that Pedroia is looking good for 2011. The Red Sox are loaded and Pedroia should be able to capitalize like you said. I think he's a Top 5 2B and I could see ranking him third behind Cano and Utley.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 8:41 am

As I'm preparing notes for the Sirius show today, I'm looking over second base closely and really starting to like that position. It certainly doesn't look as bleak as past years. I can definitely see 15 very serviceable starters there and some breakout potential after that. I'd probably rank them like this:

1. Robinson Cano (going in first round everywhere)

2. Chase Utley (going 15-17 overall)

3. Dustin Pedroia (going 24-30)

4. Ian Kinsler

5. Dan Uggla

6. Brandon Phillips

7. Rickie Weeks

8. Martin Prado

9. Brian Roberts

10. Howie Kendrick

11. Chone Figgins

12. Kelly Johnson

13. Aaron Hill

14. Gordon Beckham

15. Ben Zobrist

I think there's upside with Neil Walker, Sean Rodriguez, Tsyuyoshi Nishioka and certainly Dustin Ackley. This isn't as bad of a position as I expected. Am I wrong with that assessment?

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 8:42 am

Originally posted by husky88fan:

Utley or Cano?

Rollins or Reyes?

Kemp or J.Upton?

Choo or Pence? I'd go:

Utley

Reyes

Upton

Choo

Close call on Choo-Pence. I could probably flip a coin there.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 8:46 am

Originally posted by husky88fan:

Utley or Cano?

Rollins or Reyes?

Kemp or J.Upton?

Choo or Pence? Right now I'd definitely go Cano over Utley. The injury factor is one thing going against Utley, but really Cano is looking like an MVP candidate who could be the top second baseman for years to come.

Reyes for me as I'm still intrigued by the incredible speed...if he can ever stay healthy.

Kemp for me. I think if they just show some confidence in him and let him play the game without thinking too much he will be fine. He's a rare, rare talent.

Choo. I think this is an easy one.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 8:48 am

Originally posted by High Octane Baseball:

Not sure if we are allowed to ask back to back questions...but I have a bunch!Post them all. You're probably asking questions that others want answers to. We'll be here for one more hour, so go for it. If you don't ask them it looks like nobody will!!

jdoggmms · Post by **jdoggmms** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 8:48 am

What can we expect as far as ADP reports leading up to the final weekend? I'm guessing you guys don't have any concrete plans since you're in the midst of sign-ups, but I just want to confirm that we will have this information (as up-to-date as possible) available as a resource.

meanguy · Post by **meanguy** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 8:48 am

1-Will the new site have the 'draft one round only' feature?

2-Will the finished slow draft results be able to be viewed the same way it is here (by round, position, etc)or will those results not be transferred.

3- The Feb 16th draft participants dissapeared off of the sign up page. What gives? When will that draft room be open, etc.?

TParsons · Post by **TParsons** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 8:49 am

Will we see a return to previous dominance for Papelbon and/or Broxton? What about Nathan?

Any input on how managerial changes might have an affect on fantasy? i.e.- The Brewers running more...

High Octane Baseball · Post by **High Octane Baseball** » Wed Feb 09, 2011 8:49 am

One name that keeps falling to me in mock drafts and one i struggle with picking because of his batting average, but because to me outfield is so weak this year, what do yo think of Curtis Granderson this year? Is he really worth a 6-8th rd pick?

[ February 09, 2011, 02:51 PM: Message edited by: High Octane Baseball ]