Originally posted by jim.s:
quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:
By the way, Jim, I would love to be in a league without projections from these guys. In fact we had an e-mail draft that started as soon as the last out was made last season. I would have been quite comfortable drafting against the other 14 even if these writers were in their ear, giving them their projections for the coming year.
Now, let me propose something to you. Would you go into a paperless, computerless draft? These really test mettle. We had a local league that did it for a couple of years, but proved to tough to find replacements for.
Rules were, that no paper, computers, writing instruments, and hands were checked for 'crib notes'. The only one who could write was the director who wrote down names as they were called.
It was only a $20 league, but paid for itself in preparation. The opposite of a 'projections' league. I would not do well in a paperless draft. My point was I'd like to be the only one in a draft allowed to use projections from HQ etc. For those who feel that those projections are worthless, it shouldn't give me any advantage being the only one to use them. [/QUOTE]I'd be all for that, Jim. It'd be hard to find 13 like minds though.
I don't think projections are worthless. They have their place. Some folks rely heavily on mock drafts as well. I don't see the point there either, but it floats others boats.
My point is that if you delve into the numbers... every players numbers... that projections from another source becomes more entertainment than a guide.
[ February 15, 2011, 04:30 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]
Stuck In The Middle With You
Stuck In The Middle With You
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
Stuck In The Middle With You
The thing about Jose Bautista is that projectionists and non projection drafters come together.
Going into that draft, most of us are yay or nay on Bautista. I dare say (because I am not a projectionist) that projectionist who have Bautista for 35 home runs will not take him in most drafts.
1) Somebody that is sold on Bautista will take him first.
2) Unless purely position driven, there are more 35 home run hitters with poor average later.
3) If available in that third or fourth round, even at a bargain rate, he'll be passed. Maybe because of #2, maybe because of the doubt in mind in projecting 35 home runs.
Projectionists aren't the only ones that, in effect, lie to themselves when uncertain about a player.
I have Stephen Drew seventh on my shortstop list. Stephen Drew has never been on one of my teams. He has abilty, a good spot in the lineup for the year, a great hitters park. Everything that goes into making him number seven on my list.
But, I won't take him. He's streaky and sometimes aloof. I don't know how to project aloof. But, I do know how skip him even though he has a better chance at putting up numbers than my number 8 shortstop. I'm lying to myself here.
Of course, the best course of action for me would be to draft from another position and actually hope that the next shortstop on my list is taken.
Projectionist, not sold on Bautista, will do the same thing I do with Drew.
Make sense?
Going into that draft, most of us are yay or nay on Bautista. I dare say (because I am not a projectionist) that projectionist who have Bautista for 35 home runs will not take him in most drafts.
1) Somebody that is sold on Bautista will take him first.
2) Unless purely position driven, there are more 35 home run hitters with poor average later.
3) If available in that third or fourth round, even at a bargain rate, he'll be passed. Maybe because of #2, maybe because of the doubt in mind in projecting 35 home runs.
Projectionists aren't the only ones that, in effect, lie to themselves when uncertain about a player.
I have Stephen Drew seventh on my shortstop list. Stephen Drew has never been on one of my teams. He has abilty, a good spot in the lineup for the year, a great hitters park. Everything that goes into making him number seven on my list.
But, I won't take him. He's streaky and sometimes aloof. I don't know how to project aloof. But, I do know how skip him even though he has a better chance at putting up numbers than my number 8 shortstop. I'm lying to myself here.
Of course, the best course of action for me would be to draft from another position and actually hope that the next shortstop on my list is taken.
Projectionist, not sold on Bautista, will do the same thing I do with Drew.
Make sense?
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
Stuck In The Middle With You
Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:
The thing about Jose Bautista is that projectionists and non projection drafters come together.
Going into that draft, most of us are yay or nay on Bautista. I dare say (because I am not a projectionist) that projectionist who have Bautista for 35 home runs will not take him in most drafts.
1) Somebody that is sold on Bautista will take him first.
2) Unless purely position driven, there are more 35 home run hitters with poor average later.
3) If available in that third or fourth round, even at a bargain rate, he'll be passed. Maybe because of #2, maybe because of the doubt in mind in projecting 35 home runs.
Projectionists aren't the only ones that, in effect, lie to themselves when uncertain about a player.
I have Stephen Drew seventh on my shortstop list. Stephen Drew has never been on one of my teams. He has abilty, a good spot in the lineup for the year, a great hitters park. Everything that goes into making him number seven on my list.
But, I won't take him. He's streaky and sometimes aloof. I don't know how to project aloof. But, I do know how skip him even though he has a better chance at putting up numbers than my number 8 shortstop. I'm lying to myself here.
Of course, the best course of action for me would be to draft from another position and actually hope that the next shortstop on my list is taken.
Projectionist, not sold on Bautista, will do the same thing I do with Drew.
Make sense? Bautista and Drew are two good examples of situations where gut can give a different answer than projections. What I do is make an adjustment to $ value for subjective factors. But if after adjustment the player is availble below that price (or draft position) I'll take them. I don't want to be debating gut feeling with myself in the middle of a draft.
The thing about Jose Bautista is that projectionists and non projection drafters come together.
Going into that draft, most of us are yay or nay on Bautista. I dare say (because I am not a projectionist) that projectionist who have Bautista for 35 home runs will not take him in most drafts.
1) Somebody that is sold on Bautista will take him first.
2) Unless purely position driven, there are more 35 home run hitters with poor average later.
3) If available in that third or fourth round, even at a bargain rate, he'll be passed. Maybe because of #2, maybe because of the doubt in mind in projecting 35 home runs.
Projectionists aren't the only ones that, in effect, lie to themselves when uncertain about a player.
I have Stephen Drew seventh on my shortstop list. Stephen Drew has never been on one of my teams. He has abilty, a good spot in the lineup for the year, a great hitters park. Everything that goes into making him number seven on my list.
But, I won't take him. He's streaky and sometimes aloof. I don't know how to project aloof. But, I do know how skip him even though he has a better chance at putting up numbers than my number 8 shortstop. I'm lying to myself here.
Of course, the best course of action for me would be to draft from another position and actually hope that the next shortstop on my list is taken.
Projectionist, not sold on Bautista, will do the same thing I do with Drew.
Make sense? Bautista and Drew are two good examples of situations where gut can give a different answer than projections. What I do is make an adjustment to $ value for subjective factors. But if after adjustment the player is availble below that price (or draft position) I'll take them. I don't want to be debating gut feeling with myself in the middle of a draft.
Stuck In The Middle With You
Originally posted by jim.s:
quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:
The thing about Jose Bautista is that projectionists and non projection drafters come together.
Going into that draft, most of us are yay or nay on Bautista. I dare say (because I am not a projectionist) that projectionist who have Bautista for 35 home runs will not take him in most drafts.
1) Somebody that is sold on Bautista will take him first.
2) Unless purely position driven, there are more 35 home run hitters with poor average later.
3) If available in that third or fourth round, even at a bargain rate, he'll be passed. Maybe because of #2, maybe because of the doubt in mind in projecting 35 home runs.
Projectionists aren't the only ones that, in effect, lie to themselves when uncertain about a player.
I have Stephen Drew seventh on my shortstop list. Stephen Drew has never been on one of my teams. He has abilty, a good spot in the lineup for the year, a great hitters park. Everything that goes into making him number seven on my list.
But, I won't take him. He's streaky and sometimes aloof. I don't know how to project aloof. But, I do know how skip him even though he has a better chance at putting up numbers than my number 8 shortstop. I'm lying to myself here.
Of course, the best course of action for me would be to draft from another position and actually hope that the next shortstop on my list is taken.
Projectionist, not sold on Bautista, will do the same thing I do with Drew.
Make sense? Bautista and Drew are two good examples of situations where gut can give a different answer than projections. What I do is make an adjustment to $ value for subjective factors. But if after adjustment the player is availble below that price (or draft position) I'll take them. I don't want to be debating gut feeling with myself in the middle of a draft. [/QUOTE]Perfect sense.
quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:
The thing about Jose Bautista is that projectionists and non projection drafters come together.
Going into that draft, most of us are yay or nay on Bautista. I dare say (because I am not a projectionist) that projectionist who have Bautista for 35 home runs will not take him in most drafts.
1) Somebody that is sold on Bautista will take him first.
2) Unless purely position driven, there are more 35 home run hitters with poor average later.
3) If available in that third or fourth round, even at a bargain rate, he'll be passed. Maybe because of #2, maybe because of the doubt in mind in projecting 35 home runs.
Projectionists aren't the only ones that, in effect, lie to themselves when uncertain about a player.
I have Stephen Drew seventh on my shortstop list. Stephen Drew has never been on one of my teams. He has abilty, a good spot in the lineup for the year, a great hitters park. Everything that goes into making him number seven on my list.
But, I won't take him. He's streaky and sometimes aloof. I don't know how to project aloof. But, I do know how skip him even though he has a better chance at putting up numbers than my number 8 shortstop. I'm lying to myself here.
Of course, the best course of action for me would be to draft from another position and actually hope that the next shortstop on my list is taken.
Projectionist, not sold on Bautista, will do the same thing I do with Drew.
Make sense? Bautista and Drew are two good examples of situations where gut can give a different answer than projections. What I do is make an adjustment to $ value for subjective factors. But if after adjustment the player is availble below that price (or draft position) I'll take them. I don't want to be debating gut feeling with myself in the middle of a draft. [/QUOTE]Perfect sense.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
Stuck In The Middle With You
Yes, everyone, even doughy, has their own set of "projections". Like Brian said, otherwise you might as well throw darts and this isn't fantasy football!
The premature draftulation league that started in November was unique and Mastersball and Shandler's projections hadn't even been released yet. To my knowledge, there weren't any 2011 projections available yet by any "experts"/writers. I can tell you that Dan drafted a heck of a team and some guys have that uncanny ability to draft "some power" here and a "little speed" there to where it all cumulatively forms a well-balanced, top flight team. I know there is an ungodly amount of baseball information, news, and stats in Dan's head that somehow is sorted out efficiently, but, on the surface reading this and some of his other threads, he really does make it sound easy sometimes in assembling a quality team.
Mike mentioned the past success of kj, gekko, quahogs... It would be very interesting to know how many of the most successful nfbc'ers actually have a background in stats/probability and develop their own projection algorithms. What about Childs?
Back to Bautista and projections... I actually drafted him in 2 of my first 3 drafts last year. Did I have him projected to hit 45 HRs? Of course not. I had 2 pieces of information that gave me reason to select him in the late stages of a 30-round draft where the upside at that point simply outweighed the downside. I liked Bautista as a late round pick but after talking to a couple of others I was convinced otherwise. I actually stand on firm ground with most players, but Bautista was one of those exceptions, regrettably.
While I can sometimes use the bits of info and news to my advantage during a draft, it can also work out in the opposite direction. Player A has lost 15lbs this offseason and is primed for a bounceback year... you draft that player and then he doesn't bounce back. This is where the hardcore projectionists usually have a leg up on the competition. With the data in hand, I don't think those nuggets of info that we are starting to receive on a daily basis now have as much influence on them.
The premature draftulation league that started in November was unique and Mastersball and Shandler's projections hadn't even been released yet. To my knowledge, there weren't any 2011 projections available yet by any "experts"/writers. I can tell you that Dan drafted a heck of a team and some guys have that uncanny ability to draft "some power" here and a "little speed" there to where it all cumulatively forms a well-balanced, top flight team. I know there is an ungodly amount of baseball information, news, and stats in Dan's head that somehow is sorted out efficiently, but, on the surface reading this and some of his other threads, he really does make it sound easy sometimes in assembling a quality team.
Mike mentioned the past success of kj, gekko, quahogs... It would be very interesting to know how many of the most successful nfbc'ers actually have a background in stats/probability and develop their own projection algorithms. What about Childs?
Back to Bautista and projections... I actually drafted him in 2 of my first 3 drafts last year. Did I have him projected to hit 45 HRs? Of course not. I had 2 pieces of information that gave me reason to select him in the late stages of a 30-round draft where the upside at that point simply outweighed the downside. I liked Bautista as a late round pick but after talking to a couple of others I was convinced otherwise. I actually stand on firm ground with most players, but Bautista was one of those exceptions, regrettably.
While I can sometimes use the bits of info and news to my advantage during a draft, it can also work out in the opposite direction. Player A has lost 15lbs this offseason and is primed for a bounceback year... you draft that player and then he doesn't bounce back. This is where the hardcore projectionists usually have a leg up on the competition. With the data in hand, I don't think those nuggets of info that we are starting to receive on a daily basis now have as much influence on them.
Richard Kulaski
Fairview, TN
Fairview, TN
Stuck In The Middle With You
Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:
The thing about Jose Bautista is that projectionists and non projection drafters come together.
Going into that draft, most of us are yay or nay on Bautista. I dare say (because I am not a projectionist) that projectionist who have Bautista for 35 home runs will not take him in most drafts.
1) Somebody that is sold on Bautista will take him first.
2) Unless purely position driven, there are more 35 home run hitters with poor average later.
3) If available in that third or fourth round, even at a bargain rate, he'll be passed. Maybe because of #2, maybe because of the doubt in mind in projecting 35 home runs.
Projectionists aren't the only ones that, in effect, lie to themselves when uncertain about a player.
I have Stephen Drew seventh on my shortstop list. Stephen Drew has never been on one of my teams. He has abilty, a good spot in the lineup for the year, a great hitters park. Everything that goes into making him number seven on my list.
But, I won't take him. He's streaky and sometimes aloof. I don't know how to project aloof. But, I do know how skip him even though he has a better chance at putting up numbers than my number 8 shortstop. I'm lying to myself here.
Of course, the best course of action for me would be to draft from another position and actually hope that the next shortstop on my list is taken.
Projectionist, not sold on Bautista, will do the same thing I do with Drew.
Make sense? It's a good point. I had a good projection for Asdrubal Cabrera last year, but I didn't trust him and didn't plan to take him in most drafts. But in one I found myself short on average and picked him up. Listening to my instincts would have helped there and the projection didn't help.
The thing about Jose Bautista is that projectionists and non projection drafters come together.
Going into that draft, most of us are yay or nay on Bautista. I dare say (because I am not a projectionist) that projectionist who have Bautista for 35 home runs will not take him in most drafts.
1) Somebody that is sold on Bautista will take him first.
2) Unless purely position driven, there are more 35 home run hitters with poor average later.
3) If available in that third or fourth round, even at a bargain rate, he'll be passed. Maybe because of #2, maybe because of the doubt in mind in projecting 35 home runs.
Projectionists aren't the only ones that, in effect, lie to themselves when uncertain about a player.
I have Stephen Drew seventh on my shortstop list. Stephen Drew has never been on one of my teams. He has abilty, a good spot in the lineup for the year, a great hitters park. Everything that goes into making him number seven on my list.
But, I won't take him. He's streaky and sometimes aloof. I don't know how to project aloof. But, I do know how skip him even though he has a better chance at putting up numbers than my number 8 shortstop. I'm lying to myself here.
Of course, the best course of action for me would be to draft from another position and actually hope that the next shortstop on my list is taken.
Projectionist, not sold on Bautista, will do the same thing I do with Drew.
Make sense? It's a good point. I had a good projection for Asdrubal Cabrera last year, but I didn't trust him and didn't plan to take him in most drafts. But in one I found myself short on average and picked him up. Listening to my instincts would have helped there and the projection didn't help.
Chance favors the prepared mind.
Stuck In The Middle With You
One thing I know for sure about projections is that ADP's at MDC change according to "big" projection releases.
On another note. I have noticed that most league champions didn't "win" the league at the draft.
On another note. I have noticed that most league champions didn't "win" the league at the draft.
A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms. Enthusiasms, enthusiasms... What are mine? What draws my admiration? What is that which gives me joy? Baseball! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NRIpmO6FWk